To put it in very Canadian terms, what you want to see on the graph is for it to not "hockey stick" up to the right. So far… we're good. I keep saying the same thing, but seeing numbers grow isn't bad; it's expected. And linear growth flattening out is the best-case scenario. Exponential growth is what's bad, and as numbers grow, we'll have a better sense. The next several days will tell a lot.
In the meantime, I hope everyone had a really nice day of social-distancing outside in the sun… which means hang out outside, alone or with the people closest to you, ie the people you live with. And stay away from everybody else!
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There will be distortion of this model as more and cheaper tests arrive and the protocol for who gets tested expands. It will be difficult to normalize for that but it will look like a spike..
Horatio – thanks for this – Top of mind what countries globally are still in the worse shape other than the ones you hear via media – Italy , Iran and now Spain.
I know US has it bad in certain regions ( NYC , San Fran , LA , Seattle)
Where else is it really bad?
Agree. But I think that if it happens across the globe, or even NA, then the bias will be neutralized making the curve relevant (awaiting my mail-order PhD in virology)
Thank you for doing this everyday Horatio
Great work on this!! I wish there were corresponding charts showing the economic impact, which, IMO, is likely to be far more devastating when this story is fully told
Are we slowing the rate of increase?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html?referringSource=articleShare
Love you man!
Basically now what we’re measuring is the availability of tests because the denominator is unknown. Probably the only metric that’s useful and credible is mortality per capita.
Thank you Horatio! Very informative. Staying inside in Montreal with Jessica. Sending love
Jules Julie Taylor Wicks
I think you also have to look at density of people. For example, the population of California alone is more than that of all of Canada.
Hort these are so useful man. Please keep posting
Thank you for posting these. It is greatly appreciated ????
Close the world for 30 days…. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/18/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-on-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Good work Horatio. We’re doing our best to break that hockey stick!