Coronavirus

April 27, 2021

Take a map of Canada and tip it to the left… like rotate it about 45 degrees. Now you have British Columbia on the bottom. If you imagine the population being 38 million little specs of dust all over the map, you shake it a bit, and the specs all fall towards B.C. To some extent, this is the understood path of migration of people in this country. Should you choose to move from wherever you are, there’s a good chance you’re heading west. Vancouver is continually voted one of the best cities in the world to live in; choosing to move somewhere around here is pretty sane.

On the flipside, our neighbours to the south do it very much the other way around. First of all, you have to tip the U.S. map 45 degrees to the right. That leaves Florida on the bottom. And then, the little shakeout is not the sane people… quite the opposite. How else can you explain disproportionate insanity that seems to emanate from The Sunshine State.

News headlines from Florida are in a league of their own… things like “Thousands of gun owners in Florida planning to ‘shoot down’ Hurricane Irma”

In fact, whenever you see a news story that starts off with “Florida man…”, you know you can expect the crazy. It’s such a thing that there’s even a Twitter account of exactly that – a collection of Florida Man headlines… with gems like:

Florida Man tries to rob GameStop while wearing transparent bag on his head

Florida Man denies drinking and driving, says he only swigged bourbon at stop signs

Florida Man stabs tourist despite having no arms

Florida Man asks trooper if he can leave the scene of crash to get more meth

Florida Man bursts into ex’s delivery room, fights her new boyfriend as she’s giving birth

Florida Man bored, calls 9-11 to talk about Hitler

Florida Man tries to evade arrest by cartwheeling away from cops

Florida Man trapped in unlocked closet for two days

This is an endless list that grows on a daily basis, and serves as a perfect introduction to the “crazy of the day” – a private school in Miami that’s barring contact between students and vaccinated teachers. Because, somehow, vaccinated teachers may pose a threat.

The school’s position: “Tens of thousands of women all over the world have recently been reporting adverse reproductive issues from being in close proximity with those who have received any one of the COVID-19 injections.”

That’s bullshit. There have been no such reports.

Also, “No one knows exactly what may be causing these irregularities, but it appears that those who have received the injections may be transmitting something from their bodies to those with whom they come in contact.”

Also bullshit… of the spectacular sort.

There is, of course, zero scientific credibility to any of this… and it’d be next to impossible to come up with anything plausible to explain it. Magical evaporation of vaccinated blood somehow making its way to bystanders? Just make up the insane narrative, shove it down peoples’ throats, and hope they swallow it. And many do.

The school’s response to being questioned on this policy: ““We’re doing what we think is in the best interest of the children because children shouldn’t be around teachers who are vaccinated.”

This is amusing at first glance, and then terrifying when you think about it some more. It’s frightening to think what else might be being taught to the kids there. We rhetorically ask… how can there exist people who think this way? The question and the answer are the same. Where do university-educated anti-vaxxers come from? Places like this.

The bigger problem is that this is all part of why the U.S. may actually never get to a vaccination percentage high enough for herd immunity. They have millions of doses available for whoever wants one… but the demand is waning. They’re at 43% of the population having at least one dose, but now some are saying they don’t want the second one… so there’s no real purpose in arguing what’s needed for full herd immunity. 70% 80% 90%… they’re all the same, because the way things are going, none of them will get reached.

It’s not incorrect to label this an issue of ignorance and bad messaging. The previous administration, the demonizing of science, the miseducation of large swaths of people… factors which add up and conspire against critical thinking and common sense. It’s perhaps not a lost cause for those who genuinely don’t know any better, but it’d require a big public-service effort of education. Back to school for everyone. Just… please… not that one in Florida.

April 26, 2021

I play around a lot with my 3D printer… it’s here, beside me, in my home office, and the little series of sounds it makes while operating is good background noise; it’s not distracting… on the contrary, it helps me focus. And, at the end of it, you end up with some interesting (and sometimes useful) object. I have an endless list of things I and the kids have designed and printed… and I’m fascinated with the technology. This printer is already three years old, and there have been upgrades to it… many of which I’ve printed myself. How’s that for innovation – instead of sending you a part, they just send you a 3d blueprint – then you print the thing yourself. So cool.

That being said, it’s still an evolving technology. Some of these prints take several hours… and sometimes, halfway through them, just when you think it’s all going well, one little thing goes wrong and the entire thing is ruined. We’re all familiar with that concept these days.

I’m looking forward, as the technology progresses, to being able to print things with better consistency, and with more and more detail… and with a greater variety of materials. This one only does plastic, but this is the same technology that’s printing metal. And food. And houses. And human organs… one day.

Soon, these things will be printing with the finest detail possible… atom by atom. What would I print with that?

The first thing I would print is the tiniest violin imaginable… suitable for playing the sympathetic music due to the likes of the soon-to-be-former owner of the Corduroy restaurant on Cornwall, Rebecca Matthews… and Alaska Republican state Senator Lora Reinbold.

These two have misunderstood something, and they’re beginning to pay the price for it. What they don’t understand is that nobody gives a crap about them, and long after the issues of the day have become non-issues, they will be left holding the bag for the misguided messages they were propagating.

After Rebecca Matthews loses her business license, liquor license and whatever court case the City of Vancouver throws at her, she’ll be wondering where all of her supporters have gone. Where are the people that were chanting “Get out!” to provincial health officials when she was illegally operating her restaurant? Where is the crowd that was chanting outside her restaurant yesterday, reminding everyone that social distancing and masks and vaccines are all useless? Where’s Mark Donnelly?

Restaurants in Vancouver are a fickle business. 70% of restaurants fail in the first year. 90% are gone by year 3. Where’d everyone go? To the next one… the new one… the latest and greatest. That’s where all those people will have gone, and her GoFundMe will be puzzlingly disappointing. But that’s what you get for being the voice of unreason.

Similarly, Senator Reinbold is one of these freedom-fighting anti-maskers who doesn’t want to wear a mask in an airport or on a plane. Accordingly, Alaska Airlines has banned her indefinitely… a significant issue when Alaska Airlines is the only airline that services her hometown of Juneau. As a result, what would have been a routine one-hour flight getting home for her turned into a 14-hour road-and-ferry adventure. And, for the foreseeable future, she’s somewhat stuck if she needs to get anywhere in a hurry. Now she’s whining about the monopoly of air transport to/from Juneau… an issue that, of course, was non-existent a few days ago. I actually hope she resolves that “issue”…. so that United and American and Delta and JetBlue and Southwest… can also all ban her.

One thing that’ll never be 3D printed is intelligence, and the ability to think big-picture. And that’s too bad… because, as per above, there are at least two people who’d benefit greatly from it.

April 25, 2021

Lazy Sunday… good one to sit on the couch and not do much… but a special shoutout to all my fellow Gen-Xers who managed to secure an AstraZeneca vaccine and are feeling somewhat hungover. Like the old days, the hangover fades after a few days… and, like in those old days, you sit around and wonder if it was worth it. And the answer back then is the same as the answer today.

Well worth it, eh… we’ll be all ready for next weekend. Let’s meet at Luv Affair or Twilight Zone… then maybe head over to the Purple Onion after a bite in Gastown somewhere.

OK, so this isn’t 25 years ago… none of that is likely to happen… especially since none of those places are still around… but this hangover is still totally worth it.

Back tomorrow with updated numbers across the board… then, with a clearer head, we’ll see where we’re at…

April 24, 2021

The last time I wrote about India, it was to congratulate them on how well a country with some pretty awful conditions for large parts of its population was managing to keep things so well under control. It is actually possible to keep people in less-then-ideal situations safer than you think, and there’s no better example then our own Downtown East Side… which has pretty much reached what’s being called “significant herd immunity” thanks to the persistent effort of getting all of the at-risk and homeless population vaccinated… even resorting to bribing them with $5 gift-cards to do so. Whatever it takes. It’s the least Covid-infested part of town.

But whatever squalor you imagine on the DTES, it pales in comparison to vast areas of India… which is why it was so impressive that they were keeping things under control. Masks, social distancing, etc. So much for that.

I’ll resume the usual graphs tomorrow, but for today, here is a view of what’s going on over there.

The graph on the left is daily new cases counts since mid-March, with Canada and the U.S. thrown in for comparison.

That’s an insane graph to look at, but raw numbers aren’t necessarily fair when you’re comparing vastly different population sizes… so, the graph on the right normalizes it for every one million of population.

When you look at the graph on the left, you see the sheer numbers and how quickly they’re growing. But the graph on the right tells the real story; a month ago, they were doing well; better than us, and better than the U.S… as far as new cases go. Both countries have been bouncing around an average of ~200 new cases per million population for a while now, but India was down at less than 50 about a month ago… but now, as you can see from the graph, there’s no bounce in their step… it’s straight up.

That is textbook exponential growth, and I really have no idea what they’re doing over there to try to mitigate it… but if you were wondering what happens when you don’t do enough – or when you allow things to derail — there’s your answer.

April 23, 2021

I can’t say I’m feeling particularly well today… but, on the flipside, it’s never felt so good to not feel so good. Hit me with the side-effects… I’m happy to have them! Headache, sore arm, zero energy, random little pains. It’s all good.

Here’s what’s not so good… if I told you the average C19 hospitalizations in B.C. over the last 5 weeks have looked like this:

Five weeks ago: 425
Four weeks ago: 441
Three weeks ago: 456
Two weeks ago: 483
A week ago: 502

… you’d say jeez… that’s not good. And it’s not… but what’s worse is that those aren’t weekly averages; they’re the daily numbers going back five days.

Let’s rewrite the day-over-day growth as a percentage, leading up to yesterday:

4/18 – 4/19: 3.8%
4/19 – 4/20: 3.4%
4/20 – 4/21: 5.9%
4/21 – 4/22: 3.9%

The average of that is 4.3%, but let’s just call it 4%.

At this pace, here’s how many hospital beds would be needed by these dates:

4/26: 611
4/30: 715
5/07: 940
5/14: 1,237

Fortunately, that’s unlikely to happen… but there’s no reason to think it wouldn’t have if things had remained unchecked. If people wonder why “senseless” restrictions get imposed, it’s precisely to avoid scenarios like this.

From the time a case is diagnosed to the time they make it to hospital, it’s about 10 to 14 days. Accordingly, the alarming numbers above are a reflection of that really bad stretch in the second week of April, and things have improved slightly since. Numbers have come off a bit, and today saw a 3.2% *drop* in hospitalizations… but both hospitalizations and ICU numbers are near all-time highs.

The travel restrictions imposed today raise lots of questions… and I would suggest everyone simply drop any questions that contains the words “technically speaking”. It would take a lot longer than the length of these restrictions (to the end of the May long-weekend) to come up with rules and wording that everyone would agree with. So, forget the wording… and just think about the spirit of what’s trying to be achieved here – which is to not spread cases from region to region, hot-spot to hot-spot. And when you don’t know where those regions or hot-spots are likely to pop-up, you mitigate for all of them.

I totally agree with the intent of these measures because it’s not hard to see the evolution of these numbers, and something needs to be done… but I do wonder how effective they’ll be. We will not have militant checkpoints and rogue cops. We will simply have, as usual, things being left up to us. I guess we’ll see how that pans out. Other words I really don’t want to hear one day are… “If only we’d…”

By |2021-04-23T17:03:08-07:00April 23rd, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , |10 Comments

April 22, 2021

What a beautiful day… to get vaccinated. Though, technically, any day you manage to get vaccinated is a beautiful one.

So… finally. It was my turn.

At the start of this thing, I optimistically agreed with the 12-18 month guesses, as opposed to the 2-3 year pessimists… and I landed right at 13 months.

How does it feel? Perfectly fine for the moment. Not even a sore arm… but if my reaction to the Shingrix vaccine is any indication, I may be in for a rough couple of days.

But that’s not the correct “How does it feel?” answer.

The correct one talks about profound gratitude… to the countless people, brains, hard work and perseverance that led to this. What’s the big deal, a little shot in the arm… the whole event taking less than 2 minutes?

The big deal, of course, is everything that led up to that moment… and the bigger deal is the implications for me and for everyone around me that lead from it. My chances of getting really sick or dying from C19 are near zero. My chances of getting sick at all, even a mild case, have gone down dramatically. And if I do catch a mild case, so what. Most people don’t care about catching a cold; you expect it every year. A few days of discomfort, and that’s it. And that’s how it’ll be with this… the next time I have the sniffles, it might be C19. Probably the rest of my life, every time I catch a mild cold, I’ll wonder. But won’t really care.

For now… relief. Every moment of every day is the beginning of the rest of your life… but we all have those moments where the impact hits hard; the day of your high-school graduation when you’re handed your diploma on stage. Or the day you hear “You’re hired.” Or the day you bring your kid home from the hospital, and there he or she is, a few days old, still strapped into the car-seat… staring at you, with a look in their eyes: “Now what?”

Yeah, now what… well, here’s what. For me, the beginning of the end of worrying about getting seriously ill from this thing. It’s actually a pretty wonderful feeling, though tempered by the fact that the kids who stared at me from that car seat so many years ago are themselves not yet vaccinated. But we’re getting there… every day is one day closer to the end of this thing for all of us… and that day, which will also be a beautiful day, can’t come soon enough.

April 21, 2021

Finding a pharmacy that’s dishing out AstraZeneca is very hit-and-miss. If you’re fortunate enough to call up and find one that’s got vaccine and is booking appointments, please feel free to share the info here in the comments. Even though that info may be stale 10 minutes later, there are a lot of people looking… and they’ll be happy to take a chance. If you’re trying to find a place, feel free to check these comments as often as you like. Facebook doesn’t mind you refreshing this page every 10 seconds.

In the meantime, there’s a bit of confusion with respect to where you’ll be allowed to travel after Friday, once some temporary restrictions kick in. Essential travel is ok, but if you just want to go somewhere for fun, can you? And, if so, where can you go?

To simplify things, I’ve come up with a very simple formula that lets you know where you can travel. If you’re in Metro Vancouver, simply do this:

a. Take the first number of your postal code

b. Multiply it by 3

c. Add 3

d. Multiply it by 3 again

e. Whatever number you’re at now, add up all the digits in it

f. Look that number up on the list below. That’s where you can go:

1. Victoria
2. Kelowna
3. Nanaimo
4. Kamloops
5. Prince George
6. Vernon
7. Courtenay
8. Campbell River
9. Stay at home
10. Port Alberni
11. Fort St. John
12. Cranbrook
13. Terrace
14. Salmon Arm
15. Powell River
16. Quesnel
17. Prince Rupert
18. Williams Lake
19. Kitimat
20. Oliver

See… not so complicated. Easy-peasy-travel-easy.

April 20, 2021

Yesterday’s vaccine announcement – the one where now, anyone 40+ can go and get the AstraZeneca vaccine – wasn’t entirely unexpected… and some intelligent, forward-thinking people, earlier in the day, booked themselves appointments. At worst, you cancel it if you don’t ultimately qualify… and, if you do qualify at the end of the day, great.

I wasn’t one of those people, so by the time I started browsing London Drugs and Shoppers and other big pharmacies, all appointments were solidly booked. That being said, being resourceful meant getting on the phone and calling little pharmacies – the mom-and-pop shops that aren’t part of the provincial system and/or don’t have online booking. It took a while… but, finally… success. Booked for Thursday!

In the meantime, I’m on numerous waiting lists… Shoppers, LD, the provincial system. I guess the thing to do would be to remove myself from those lists (*after* Thursday, of course…), but I think I’ll stay on them. Not because I’ll show up to any of those appointments… and it’ll be easy to say “No thanks” when the email or text comes in… but because I’m genuinely curious to see when I’ll actually sift to the top.

The truth is, the system shouldn’t actually work this way. There should be exactly one list, and if you didn’t know any better, you still might think there is… the big provincial list that’s a bit confusing; the one where anyone can register any time, but you’re told to wait till it’s your turn to register. And where registering only means you’re now on the long waiting list, till your cohort comes up.

But there’s more than one list. Shoppers has one. London Drugs has one. Ostensibly, the provincial system should feed into that, but this pandemic will long be over by the time that integration would ever take place.

That part of the system is broken, but what’s not broken is the demand. As obscure as it is to figure out how to book an appointment, it’s not like pharmacies are dealing with overflowing fridges of vaccine. It’s getting into arms as fast as it’s showing up. As long as that keeps up, great. We keep hearing that we’ll all have one shot at least by July 1st… and, at this pace, perhaps that’ll turn out to be true.

With parallel lines of vaccine deployment and demand still ahead of supply, the important part of it is happening. It’s not entirely fair, but I’ll put out there what I did to a lot of people yesterday: If you’re having problem trying to find a pharmacy to give you the shot, send me a PM and I’ll happily give you the contact details of the place I found. The one where me, my cousin, and several friends will all be visiting on Thursday. I am so looking forward to it.

And speaking of looking forward, we are in the midst of the third wave, so no need to keep looking at first and second wave info… the graphs below are all current and concise as to what’s been going on since March 10th… and also looking forward, below those are vaccination graphs. It’s nice, for once, to look at exponentially-growing graphs that convey good news. To hell with flattening the curve; these ones we want getting steep as soon as possible. And, to be honest, they’re looking pretty good.

April 19, 2021

The “Presidency” of Augusto Pinochet in Chile lasted until early 1990. But you can’t really call him a President, because the Republic of Chile never actually democratically elected him into power.

So… in other words, when I was living there in 1987/1988, life under a military dictatorship was in full swing. It meant that a lot of the civil liberties we take for granted here in Canada simply didn’t exist. But other things, that we do take for granted *not* to exist… did. Such as… checkpoints.

Whenever you run into a checkpoint here… 99.9% of the time it’s to sniff out DUIs. The checkpoints are strategically placed so that if you find yourself heading into one, there’s no escape. Just over the hill on the Granville St. bridge, southbound – heading out of downtown on a Saturday night – is a good example.

And as you approach it, you will feel one of two things. If you’ve been drinking, dread. Fear. A complete freakout. And now you get to pay the steep price for making the poor decisions that put you in this situation.

Or, you haven’t been drinking, and you feel a mix of relief and indignation. Relief that you get to have a brief and friendly chat with the cop before you’re on your merry way… and a bit of indignation. How *dare* they stomp on my civil rights. Who do they think they are. I should be free to drive wherever I want. This is a free country. I should be able to do whatever I want.

We’ve been hearing a lot of those sentences recently, in a very different context… but these two different contexts will be merging a bit on the near future, much to the horror of civil libertarians.

Living under a military dictatorship kept you on edge. Every single time I went through one of those checkpoints… and, might I add, they not only popped-up unexpectedly, but many were semi-permanent. Imagine a checkpoint in the middle of the Lion’s Gate Bridge. In both directions… License and registration and insurance, please. Why isn’t this car in your name. Why are you going downtown. Who do you know on the north shore. How often do you travel this route.

That would be a permanent checkpoint… a little hut in the middle of the bridge, manned by a solider 24/7. Except it wasn’t 24/7… just to mess with you, sometimes the hut was empty and you could just go through. Just to mess you with and keep you on edge.

But usually, it was manned… so, you’d jump through the hoops; you let them execute their little power trip, you acquiesce to their bullshit. And unless you’re actually up to no good, you’re unlikely to have a problem. I was asked a lot of stupid questions… “Where’d you get that car radio?” “Canada? Is that one of those little states way up north?” but it was never more than a few questions before “Have a nice day”.

I’ve been back to Chile many times post-1990, and all of those checkpoints are gone… but the little huts are still there. And I drive by them now and think… what was the point of that. Seriously, what was the point.

Well, the point was that they wanted to keep you in fear. They wanted to constantly remind you… don’t forget who’s in charge. We control you. Don’t, for a minute, think you’re free.

It took a radical change in government to get rid of that but, rest assured, the right-wing military junta of Augusto Pinochet had zero in common with today’s NDP government of John Horgan… something to remember when people start screaming about today’s announcements… that for several weeks, travel restrictions… where you simply shouldn’t leave your local area. And you may run into a checkpoint. It’s temporary and it makes sense, but, oh boy… here comes the screaming and yelling from the freedom/liberty crowd.

I don’t expect to get pulled over at any checkpoint because I don’t expect to be transiting from home any time soon… but in a warped way, I’d look forward to it… because I wouldn’t be able to not compare it to my experiences from 30 years ago… the difference between slowly pulling up to a young, potentially itchy-trigger-fingered solider armed with a loaded semi-automatic weapon… and some VPD or RCMP cop whose only job in this context is to try to keep people safe. I’d look at today’s checkpoint and realize that the cop is on my side, that this is temporary, that this is necessary… and resign myself to the fact that we put ourselves in this situation.

It’s more serious than many people realize, but that’s counteracted by the measures already in place which *are* having a positive effect… and warmer weather, and vaccines. The outcome of this collision course is approaching… do we go the Israel route or the Ontario route in the near future?

Well, let’s look at the Chile route. Way ahead on vaccinations, and fully locked up… because they took that freedom and abused the hell out of it and things went from being under control to totally messed up. That’s what can happen. That’s what might happen here if strict and sudden measures weren’t put in place. So ironic that checkpoints in Chile might have prevented their full-on lockdown.

Around here… may I say… temporary. Can I repeat… temporary. As in – what we need to do today, so that we don’t all have to be doing this forever. I’m pretty sure we can do this for just a few short weeks.

I sure hope so. Otherwise, it won’t be short and it won’t be weeks.

April 18, 2021

I will update the data and graphs when I get home… but, for the moment… I am out enjoying the sunshine.

On that note…I’m not a huge fan of seeing my words being twisted into something I didn’t say… so I guess I’ll take another brief moment on yet another gorgeous day to yet again clarify something I’ve been saying for the better part of a year. Here it is again:

First of all, something I’ve been saying and dealing with and venting about seems to be this unbelievably incredibly annoying way of trying to discuss things with people who refuse to see anything other than in terms of right/wrong, black/white, “with us or against us”. I’ve written endlessly about having to explain things to certain people over and over again, because the minute one little thing doesn’t agree with what they think, everything else must be wrong.

This is not how the world works.

Let’s break this down into tiny little digestible bits so that there’s zero confusion about what I’m trying to say.

I am certainly not advocating staying inside, locked up in a tiny room with no windows, watching your mental health and that of your family deteriorate into a puddle of despair. It’s beautiful and sunny. Blue skies and fresh air. Go outside and soak in the vitamin D. It’s what I’m doing right now. It’s good for you. Wear sunscreen if you’re going to be out there a long time.

It seems, however, and this is the part that a lot of people don’t seem to want to understand… that then going down to the beach and sitting without masks in close proximity with hundreds of other strangers singing and partying about freedom and kumbaya… is not even remotely close to finding a quiet spot, just you and your group of up to 10, far away from others, not risking propagating infection from your bubble to someone else’s.

Some people want to hear just enough to suit their narrative, and that’s it.

“So yes, go outside and…”

Weeee!!! PARTY!!!! WooHoo!!!!

“No, that’s not what anyone said.”

“You said we could go outside and so we do and now you’re saying we can’t and freedom and you’re a liar and freedom and who needs masks and vaccines are bullshit and freedom and Mark Donnelly and freedom and f!@# masks and vaccines don’t work anyway and what about that restaurant on Cornwall and freedom and masks prevent oxygen and that gym in Kelowna and freedom and it’s a hoax and freedom and big brother and social distancing is bullshit and it’s just a flu and freedom and…”

Yeah, you know what, I keep getting accused of propagating a narrative that’s trying to limit your freedoms. This comes mostly from a group of people who don’t have much clarity with respect to what freedom actually is because they’ve never faced a reality where actual freedom has been at stake.

Being told to act responsibly is not an infringement of your freedoms. It’s simply part of you being a cooperative part of society so that everyone, including you, can benefit from the effects of the greater good that all of us have the power to bestow.

Most people know what that means. Some are incapable of understanding. And some… simply don’t care.

By |2021-04-18T17:05:38-07:00April 18th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , , , |9 Comments
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