August 2020 • Page 3 of 4 • kemeny.ca | Website and Blog of Horatio Kemeny

August 12, 2020

If you followed WWF professional wrestling in the 80s, perhaps you remember the masked wrestler “Kamala” – ostensibly a fearsome Ugandan warrior. In reality, he was an American athlete/performer by the name of James Harris. And right around the time Joe Biden was deciding on Kamala Harris as his VP running mate, James “Kamala” Harris passed away, aged 70, of COVID-19. It’s one of those weird coincidences that mean nothing… but still make you say, “Huh.”

I have a suggestion for Biden/Harris. They need a catchy campaign slogan, and it should be this: MAAA – for two reasons.

First of all, "MAAA!!!" is the scream little kids yell out when they’re lost, looking for a parent… like the little kid who, when he was 6 years old, accompanied his parents to buy a new washer/dryer and decided to wander out of the store and walk around the block, not realizing that they were on Kingsway somewhere, and blocks around there are tri-angled and non-conforming, and if you don’t know what you’re doing, you can easily get lost… but fortunately, while the little kid was standing outside screaming "MAAA!!!", a kind stranger asked him what’s wrong and guided him back to the store where he composed himself and approached his parents who were just finishing up buying a new washer and dryer.

And the U.S. seems kind of lost these days, and needs someone to guide them back to where they belong. Like half the country is screaming "MAAA!!!"

The second reason is that it stands for what I think makes a lot of sense: Make America America Again. MAAA.

It’s my personal opinion that our neighbour to the south wasn’t so badly broken that it needed fixing to be “Great” again, but boy, did that slogan ever take off. I’ve never heard a good answer to the question though, from the people that support that sentiment… what exact Greatness are you hoping to recapture? When was America “Great” to the extent it’s not “Great” now? And frankly, however you define it, it seems to be a lot less Great today than it ever was.

What’s clear is that America, once feared and respected around the world… is now ridiculed and pitied. And unless you’re delusional in thinking things are going “Great”, then forget that particular adjective; you probably just want to see an America that used to exist and is, for the moment — like I was, wandering the streets around Kingsway all those years ago — lost. It won’t be as easy to find as I was… my MAAA campaign lasted maybe 30 minutes, during which time I really missed my parents. And at the moment, I’m really missing the America I’ve known most of my life. I’m not the only one.

This will be a lot tougher, but it has to start somewhere. Someone crank out a few million blue hats with that MAAA on them, and get on with it.

#MAAA

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:48-07:00August 12th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Question, South, COVID-19, MAAA, American, Country, Remember|16 Comments

August 11, 2020

Wow… two days in a row with not much to say — what’s going on?! Tune in tomorrow for something more substantive… but for now, here are some current numbers; nothing new — same patterns we’ve been seeing. Let’s see what tomorrow brings…

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:48-07:00August 11th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: Numbers|5 Comments

August 10, 2020

Short (and early!) update today, because I won’t be around till later.

All of the Canadian numbers, including B.C., are updated and accurate. I always post the U.S. data with the 5pm numbers so that the rolling 24h picture reflects reality, so these are a bit off. I will correct and re-upload the graph and numbers sometime later today.

EDIT: Updated 5pm numbers and graphs.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:49-07:00August 10th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: British Columbia, Numbers, Data|3 Comments

August 9, 2020

So a student in Georgia takes a picture of a school hallway… crowded with students, no social distancing, few masks… a school where shortly thereafter, 9 people (6 students, 3 staff) tested positive (and you know there will be more)… and what happened? The student got suspended for sharing that picture publicly.

The outcry was swift and biting… and the suspension was rescinded entirely… “optics”, you know… but not before we all got a good look at what’s going on… and it’s frightening.

We get the outward-facing message, quotes like “The health and well-being of our staff and students remains our highest priority” – that from the principal of the school. Yet the inward-facing reality is that these schools will lose their federal funding if they’re not open “for real” – for everyone. Well, not everyone… Barron Trump’s private school is online-only, but you get the idea. Forcing teachers and students into an environment most know isn’t safe.

The fact is, in Georgia, within hours of opening, a student tested positive, resulting in the closing of that school, and a two-week quarantine for all staff and students. That was one school, but in another school, just up the road, a student tested positive and was sent home, but the school remains open. The following day, more schools… more cases. I don’t know the most recent numbers, but it’s hundreds of staff. And hundreds of students. A tremendous example of how not to do things. A beautiful example.

Closer to home, let’s worry about us for a bit. While the world just saw its 20,000,000th case and the U.S. its 5,000,000th case recently, Canada is close to 120,000. Quebec recently went over 60,000 cases. Ontario went over 40,000 today. And by the time we get our numbers updated tomorrow, here in B.C., we’ll be over 4,000. Whereas B.C. was formerly a shining example… now, not so much. Our numbers are still great, in comparison… up to now. But the trend is not good, and the last thing we need is to wind up trying to force “reality” back in our lives when we’re not yet prepared for it. There are unfortunately too many examples of that. I hope B.C. doesn’t become another one.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:31-07:00August 9th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Fact, Quebec, School, Canada, Idea, Ontario, British Columbia, Numbers, Hope|7 Comments

August 8, 2020

The famous Stanford marshmallow experiment of 1972 dealt with delayed gratification. Basically, kids were offered two options… a treat right now, or wait a bit… and get double the treats. Note that the average age of the participants was around 4½… the idea being to figure out if something so simple as this version of “seeing the bigger picture” might be a useful predictor of future outcomes for these kids.

What they found was that those who were patient and would wait it out… turned out to have better outcomes… as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment and other measures. It stands to reason, at the most basic level. If you can’t see more than a move ahead, life looks a lot different. Indeed, consider a chess game where the opponent can’t think much past what they’re about to do. They move a piece, you take it. They move another piece, you take it. Jeez, this game is hard… and life, like chess, looks a lot different if you don’t consider that big picture. And while those kids were 4½, you see this thought-process in adults all the time.

I’ve talked about parking before, so let’s talk about it again for a moment. Back in the day, if you didn’t mind walking a few blocks, parking for the racetrack was a lot cheaper if you parked in some person’s driveway. You know the crowd, if you’ve ever approached the PNE from the residential side; the people all yelling “Parking! Parking!”, trying to hustle you into their driveways or garage for $10 or $8 or $5 or whatever.

There used to be this Italian guy… with a convenient driveway, very close to Renfrew St. Two bucks to park, and we parked there frequently. This was from April to late August, a few times a week.

Then… the actual PNE fair rolled around, and things got busier… and when we went to park, he’d jacked his prices… from $2 to $10. Hey buddy, it’s us. Nope, $10. Are you kidding? We’re your best customers! Nope, $10. OK, you know what… if you don’t let us park here for $2, we will never park here again.

The simple math… he’d make up that amount in less than two weeks of us parking in the future, plus the entire future ahead of that. Nope, $10 or forget it. OK dude, forget it.

And we never parked there again. What we did too, incessantly, is drive by his place slowly as if we were going to park, then wave at him and park somewhere else. Eventually we got tired of mocking him, or perhaps we got tired of his rude gestures towards us. A bit of both.

Hey, it’s summer! And I should be free to enjoy it as I like! Masks, social distancing, whatever, who cares! Live for the moment; the future, why worry… what’ll happen will happen and we’ll figure it out eventually. Que será, será.

Well, that’s how some people think. The same people who as kids, snagged the candy now instead of waiting a bit for twice as much.

It’s not just this summer. It’s next summer too. And the decades beyond that. Short-term pain, long-term gain.

It’s pretty obvious to some people, but what’s also pretty obvious is that some people are incapable of considering things on those terms. That’s what comes to mind as I see these numbers creep up. Let's get it together, people. There's no free parking.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:31-07:00August 8th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Sports & Gaming, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Masks, Game, Cars, Numbers, Future, Mind, Italy, Idea|8 Comments

August 7, 2020

I’ve changed some of the data and graphs, to more accurately reflect where we’re at, and to track information that’s now more meaningful. Doesn’t it look good? Tremendous. World leaders are calling me, telling me they’ve never seen anything like it. The colours, the numbers. It’s a beautiful thing.

I’ve removed the growth factor column, because it’s become less relevant as the meteoric exponential growth has tailed off. I’ve left the cases-increase column, because it encapsulates that growth, as well as being directly relatable to what came before it.

I’ve added a “Deaths” column, which is particularly notable in comparison to our neighbours to the south. There is a “Total Deaths” at the very top, and there is a daily number of new deaths reported in the column below it. A blank means zero deaths, and looking at today’s numbers, those at least look really good. Zero in B.C., Ontario and Quebec combined. There were 3 deaths in Alberta and 1 in Saskatchewan today, and that was it, across Canada.

I’ve also changed Deaths / Case to Deaths per 1 million of population… 497 in the U.S., 237 in Canada, 38 in B.C., etc. This more accurately reflects the proliferation of the virus, more apples-to-apples instead of being more about number of tests given. It’s 15,363 in the U.S., 3,137 in Canada, 776 in B.C. and so on. More on that below.

From a Canadian point of view, these are all pretty good. The continuing upward trend here in B.C. is worrying, but we’re being told it was to be expected. I’m not so convinced, and hope the actions we take today will be reflected in those numbers in due course.

Also worth noting… ever since the White House took the number-gathering away from the CDC and decided to do it on their own, the divergence between cases and deaths has grown. I’m not going to accuse the American Government of lying, but I find it suspicious that the numbers of daily new cases (which they control) have shrunk, while the numbers of deaths (which they don’t control) have remained largely unchanged. Like, average deaths over the last week were 1,041 daily… and 1,100 the week before; pretty similar. The number of new daily cases this last week were 55,604, while the week before that, they were 65,373 Ten thousand less daily cases, yet the same number of deaths.

Recall Donald Trump’s musings that maybe too much testing isn’t a good thing, because when you do that, you find too many cases. Whether he’s hiding numbers or testing less, I don’t know. I’m pretty sure though… a few extra coats of paint on the deck of the Titanic probably looked pretty good. Hey, guys, what about this big hole on the side of the ship? Yeah, yeah, but look at the deck! Look at the shiny gloss! Doesn’t it look tremendous? It’s a beautiful thing.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:31-07:00August 7th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: Canada, Data, Virus, Ontario, American, British Columbia, Deaths, Hope, Vancouver, Government, Saskatchewan, Relevant, Alberta, Testing, Quebec, Numbers, South|4 Comments

August 6, 2020

I’m back in Vancouver for a bit… just in time for some Vancouver weather, it seems. As accurate as weather reporting has gotten over the last several years, if all else fails… here’s your local weather forecast: Cloudy, sunny periods, chance of rain. You can’t go too wrong with that.

Where you *can* go wrong is a different sort of forecast: Pandemic, irresponsible gatherings, chance of spreading. We presently have over 400 people in quarantine and a significant number of new cases, all due to one party… and it’s quite possible that at that party, it was just one person who had it. I know it’s impossible, but if every single person isolated properly and responsibly for two weeks, this virus would be wiped out, locally at least. Of course, that’d require properly sealed borders, not leaking Americans traveling to and from Alaska (wink wink) and all of the flights arriving from all over the place with people who refuse to properly isolate.

Summary – it’s still up to us to keep doing what we’ve been doing so successfully up to now, because if we don’t… well, maybe it’s time for Dr. Henry to get a little more harsh. Heading into September on an upswing of cases is bad, for numerous reasons. If one person can infect 40 and affect 400, consider the implications when the weather turns bad and we’re all forced inside. As per yesterday, no Deus ex Machina is going to resolve this. We’re on our own.

Word of the day…

Rückkehrunruhe (noun): The feeling of returning home after an immersive trip only to find it fading rapidly from your awareness.

Indeed, being immersed in the present-day of city life and Vancouver weather will do that to you. It’s still summer, right?

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:32-07:00August 6th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Life in Vancouver, Interesting Words, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Virus, Dr Bonnie Henry, Pandemic, Vancouver|8 Comments

August 5, 2020

The plot device known as “deus ex machina” was invented by the Greeks, ages ago. It literally translates to “god from the machine”, where back in ancient Greek theatre, the actors playing the role would be hanging from ropes, or some sort of machine, sweeping in to save the day, in whatever context was needed.

From a literary/artistic point of view, this has its detractors… for obvious reasons. It has the potential to wreck an otherwise excellent story with a convenient miracle to undo the entire struggle that led to that point. William Golding was criticized for this in “Lord of the Flies”… after building up an incredible narrative with intriguing and insightful and though-provoking ideas… suddenly, in a just a few pages, a ship arrives, rescues the boys, The End.

It’s not always that blunt, but you get the idea… and it fit well with the narratives of Greek Tragedies (and comedies)… and since then, it’s appeared all over the place. H.G. Wells’s “The War of the Worlds”… big, powerful aliens have the technology to travel across the universe with a battle fleet ready to destroy earth… until they themselves are destroyed by bacteria. Actually, almost identically, Will Smith’s aliens in “Independence Day” – and a computer virus.

You get the idea; it’s when something appears out of nowhere, just in the nick of time… to save the day, like divine intervention.

There are a few versions of this these days to consider. One, of course, is Donald Trump’s hope that this is what will resolve the giant mess his country finds itself in, much of which is his responsibility. Numerous times, he’s stated how it’ll just go away, like a miracle, burn itself out, vanish overnight, whatever. Unfortunately for him, the real world doesn’t operate that way; even the ancient Greeks knew that.

More recently, Trump did an interview with Jonathan Swan on HBO, and the entire thing is now available on YouTube. It is an astonishing 40 minutes of incoherent, delusional nonsense. And great kudos to Mr. Swan who, unlike pretty-much every other reporter, didn’t acquiesce to Donald Trump’s bullshit. He called him on it, repeatedly… though, as expected, when DT has no answer, he deflects away, onto the next incoherent, irrelevant point. The end result of it was asking yourself… what did I learn from that? The answer will be… not much. There was nothing factually useful in Trump’s responses, other than confirmation that he actually doesn’t understand what he’s talking about. You can’t accuse him of actually lying when he doesn’t actually get it. That much was made obvious when the problems with his fist-full of printouts were explained back to him.

Donald Trump has had a hovering “deus ex machina” all his life. First, it was daddy Fred who handheld his inept narcissist of a son through childhood and adolescence, paving and smoothing-out what otherwise would’ve (and should’ve) been a dead-end path.

Then it was Trump’s problem solvers, many of whom are now in prison, having themselves acquiesced to illegalities to keep their guy happy.

Then it was the Republican party and the White House and all the “yes-men” he could gather… and, as we’ve seen with textbook narcissists, once the “yes” turns into anything but… even a “maybe”, let alone a “no” – you’re out of there. The best people, tremendous people, beautiful people… exit stage left, with a knife in their back and a grade-school cheap insulting nickname to be Twittered about incessantly.

During the interview, you could see Trump looking around at his people. “Help”, his eyes pleaded. Help me. Rescue me. Where’s my DeM? It wouldn’t have been too presidential to stand up, rip off the mic and make a scene, like so many celebrities love doing when they’re asked a question they don’t like… no, The President had to sit through it, very uncomfortably in parts, and hang himself just a little bit more with every astonishing, baseless, irrelevant word.

There are no machines big enough, ropes strong enough, storylines believable enough… that would have a Deus sweep in to save the day for him. His mistakes will follow him into eternity, where maybe he can have a discussion with Deus Himself. That’s Who it’d take to make him understand.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:32-07:00August 5th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Space & Astronomy, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Trump, Idea, Country, Space, Hope, Universe, School, Narcissism, Question, President, Virus, Understand|8 Comments

August 4, 2020

Little update… but, unfortunately, big numbers. The cliff-hanger episode didn’t resolve too well… and although the increases were somewhat expected, it doesn’t bode well for the near future… since today’s numbers are a trailing 2-week-or-so indicator of what’s been going on. And it’s not like behavior has improved in the last two weeks, so it wouldn’t be realistic to expect things to improve magically.

“Play safe to stay safe”, says Dr. Henry… yet it’s those private parties and get-togethers that seem to be the places where things spread quickly.

Let’s try to remember what got us to this good place, before we all slide backwards… back to square one. That would really suck.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:32-07:00August 4th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: Numbers, Remember|6 Comments

August 3, 2020

The season-ending cliff-hanger was started by the show Dallas, with their famous “Who shot J.R.?” thing that had everyone talking in the summer of 1980. No TV series had ever done that, but it’s now become the norm… because when they resolved the mystery the following season, more than 350 million people tuned in, from, all around the world. It was the highest-rated television episode in U.S. history. The Turkish parliament suspended a session so the legislators could run home in time to watch. Bookies were publishing odds as to who did it… and it was a long list, headed by some likely suspects, but rounded out by a lot of other irrelevant and/or impossible people. Dallas Cowboys coach Tom Landry was on the list at 10,000-1, even though he had nothing to do with the show. Ultimately, J.R.’s sister-in-law/mistress Kristin (4-1) was the guilty one, a fact finally revealed on the fourth episode of the subsequent season. Those producers knew what they were doing.

This long-weekend feels like a bit of a cliff-hanger. On our last episode, Friday, 50 new cases in B.C… and heading into a long weekend… and, since then, no updates in B.C and no update today in Ontario… so, this will all remain a cliff-hanger until tomorrow, when all the storylines get resolved. For now, the national number is totally wrong.

It occurs to me… those shows, back then… on network television, complete with commercial breaks… they’d want to keep you tuned in right to the end, so there’d often be a mini-cliffhanger before the last set of commercials. Remember that… where they’d try to sell you some useless thing, but they made it look and sound so good… Call now! Supplies are limited! Operators are Standing By!

For the moment, we’re all Standing By. Just not too close to each other.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:33-07:00August 3rd, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Remember, Fact|4 Comments

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