Trump

December 8, 2020

In an effort to find a silver lining to talk about, there’s always the environment… which has been greatly benefiting from this pandemic. Cleaner air, cleaner water and all that. When the world slows down, so does the man-made environmental damage that typically goes along with it. Some lessons have been learned… which can hopefully carry on when this is all over.

But here’s a very different environmental message… you know David Suzuki… the environmental activist, academic, recipient of Canada’s highest honour… the Companion Order of Canada… the guy whose show “The Nature of Things” just celebrated its 60th(!) anniversary, making it the longest-running science show ever, anywhere… that guy. Three times in my life, I almost killed him.

This isn’t hyperbole… it’s not an exaggeration. It’s not “just an expression”. And certainly, it wouldn’t have been on purpose. But three times in my life, I came this close to accidentally taking out one of Canada’s most recognizable icons. All three times, it would’ve been his fault. And all three times, it was because he jumped out into traffic… right in front of me.

The first time was in 1993… I was driving north on the Granville Street Bridge, headed downtown. I took the Seymour offramp… and fortunately, I was going slowly… I was preparing to turn left at the first opportunity, on Drake, and as I slowed down, I guess he wasn’t paying attention and thought I was slowing down to stop because the light had changed. The light hadn’t changed; not even close… I still had a full-on green light, and as I approached the intersection, ready to turn, he casually stepped off the curb, right in front of me. I slammed on the brakes and came to a screeching halt. He looked up with an expression of great surprise and jumped back onto the curb. I rolled down the window and was about to unleash a serious torrent of profanity, but then realized who it was, so all I could come up with was, “Are you ok, Mr. Suzuki?” He was fine; just shaken up… as was I.

About 5 years later, I was emerging from an underground parking lot… the one that comes up on Smithe, between Granville and Howe… it’s a steep ramp, and the vision isn’t great. I wasn’t going very fast, but again, there wasn’t much time. As I approached the top of the ramp, well-beyond the point where most pedestrians would’ve stopped, he went sprinting by. Right in front of the car. I slammed on the brakes. It was close enough that he turned and actually touched the hood of the car. And once again, I found myself staring at the face of a surprised and frightened David Suzuki. That glance lasted just a brief moment… he quickly took off running… and I was left muttering to myself… “Next time, Suzuki, you might not be so lucky…”

Third time’s a charm. Third time lucky. I really didn’t want to test this particular third time, but of course, it wasn’t up to me. Several years later, I was headed down Thurlow, in the far left lane… and just as I approached Robson, guess who went sprinting through the intersection… with just enough time for me to slam on the brakes, see him look up with surprise, and watch him keep going. Apparently, he’s often in a hurry. Apparently, his mind is often elsewhere. Apparently, they don’t teach you how to cross the street in environmental school.

David Suzuki is now 84 years old. I would sincerely hope his days of carelessly jumping out into traffic are behind him… but, if you’re driving downtown, be warned… he may be out there.

I’m putting all of this out there for a few reasons. Number one, if I ever run over David Suzuki, it’s because the universe intends it to be so, period. Don’t even try to convince me otherwise. Number two, if someone else runs over David Suzuki, I’m telling you right now; it won’t be the driver’s fault.

And number three… well, speaking of three, there are three things that are coming to an end soon. The year 2020, the Trump presidency, the pandemic. In that order. Good riddance.

Once this pandemic is over, we can once again focus on things that have taken a back-seat, but have never stopped being important. From the biggest-picture point of view, the environment. It’s still in crisis, but as we’ve learned, we can make a big difference with minimal effort. Imagine what a real, long-lasting concerted effort might achieve.

From a smallest-picture point of view, ourselves. We’ve all been navigating this unknown journey through our own, personal lens. The end is in sight, and as it approaches, it’ll be time to realize what positives have come out of all of this… and hold on to them. It’s something to keep in mind, especially on days like this, when the gray, miserable rain isn’t exactly helping the positive thoughts. The tolls have been heavy, both from the financial and mental-health points-of-view. But there will be sunnier days ahead, in every sense of the expression.

Try to keep that in mind… except when you’re driving downtown. Then, just concentrate… and focus on pedestrians…

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By |2020-12-08T17:03:05-08:00December 8th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |20 Comments
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December 6, 2020

A brief footnote about yesterday and former Canucks-anthem-singer Mark Donnelly; the video of him on the steps of the Art Gallery is online. He makes a 10-minute rambling speech before singing, and to be honest, it’s kind of sad. He makes some good points, he makes some bad points, he makes some confused points, he spews some well-debunked conspiracy nonsense… like jeez, man… use that nice voice for something useful; this is pretty bad. At one point he criticizes the Canucks for their decision, at another he hopes he’ll get a call from them so they can talk about it. Near the end he yells, “Go Canucks Go!”; the crowd is so confused, they’re not sure whether to cheer or jeer. Fortunately, he eventually just shuts up and sings.

On a much larger scale of confused messaging, the president of the United States is in Georgia, speaking out of both sides of his mouth simultaneously. One side is encouraging Republicans to get out there and vote in what’s looking like a very tight senate runoff election. The other side is still screaming about how the federal election was a fraud and can’t be trusted and was rigged. If you’re a Georgian Republican, I’m not sure what you’re supposed to do. Or even think. The president called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger an “enemy of the people” and called Governor Brian Kemp a “moron” and a “nut job”. Very presidential. Only 44 more days.

Setting aside the wise words offered to us by a former anthem-singer, and a former reality star/soon-to-be-former president, let’s reflect on the reality of the day… record numbers everywhere, in hospitalizations, ICU admissions and, unfortunately, deaths. The U.S. has over 100,000 patients hospitalized and is seeing around 2,700 deaths daily. Canada’s numbers are much lower… we’re approaching 2,000 hospitalizations, and the daily national death toll is averaging around 90… but what they have in common is that those numbers are all rising consistently.

Tomorrow we’ll get B.C. numbers and have a better idea where we’re at… but here are some good guesses: Canada will be up 1.7%, B.C. will be up 2.0%, Alberta will be up 2.9%… this isn’t rocket science; going across the table of numbers, you can see where I’m getting this from. It’s very consistent. It’s almost impressive how consistent Ontario has been; eight straight days of exactly 1.5% growth. There’s a finish line, but we have a long way to go. Where we’re at, and these numbers… they’re nothing to sing about.

December 6, 2020

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By |2020-12-06T21:29:45-08:00December 6th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19, Sports & Gaming|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |2 Comments
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December 3, 2020

A bit of a follow-up to my post a couple of days ago… with respect to Trump’s misinformation campaign… a good question to always ask is “to what end?” – like, why is this happening? What’s the point? Who’s benefitting?

A common answer, the usual lowest-common denominator, especially when dealing with the Trumps of the world, is… follow the money.

So… what was the point of that “interview” a few days ago, where Maria Bartiromo just sat there feeding Trump’s tiring election-fraud delusions? Depends who you ask.

Fox News has gotten into a bit of trouble recently with respect to its audience. The audience doesn’t really care about truth; they just want to hear their version of “facts” regurgitated back to them. So, when Fox started actually questioning the facts being put out there by Trump and his team, things didn’t go well. The most horrible thing that could possibly happen to them (according to Trump), did: Their ratings fell. Accordingly, they needed to do something for their core group… lest they see that entire demographic flee to the further-right-wing media, who are happily waiting for them. They chose to pander a bit of conspiracy bullshit… thrown in with the real news. Instead of discussing important, relevant topics like the pandemic or the impending transfer of power, it was just useless, irrelevant, made-up garbage… ostensibly being broadcast as “news”. Indeed, Fox News is as two-faced as the King of Clubs… but what do they care. Their integrity vanished ages ago.

From Trump’s point of view, it’s pretty simple. Why is he carrying on with this narrative? It’s nonsense. It’s tiring. It’s done. It’s been thrown out of every court. Even his trusty lapdog William Barr is admitting there was no election fraud, much to the dismay of the Trump loyalists who are now calling for his head. There’s an old saying… if you’re flogging a dead horse, dismount.

The answer is that by continuing to preach this crap, he can keep going back to his crowd of 70 million people… asking them to help correct this nefarious misjustice. I actually thought it was a joke that he’d be going out fundraising, to raise money to pay for these lawyers. But that’s what he did. “I need you now more than ever!” said one email. “The Recount Results were BOGUS!” said another.

While the claims of election fraud started well-before the election, his push to fight the results started shortly after November 3rd. It’s not like he could’ve started asking for money to contest a fraudulent election before actually losing it, but the pieces were clearly in place… and launched a few days later. So, in less than a month, he’s raised… more than $170,000,000. That’s one hundred and seventy million dollars.

Astonishing. Where’s all that money going to go? Far less than 1% to the lawyers actually fighting this particular cause. The other 99.7%..? Trump owes lots of money, and much of it starts coming due in 2021… and the money has to come from somewhere.

Ah. That clarifies things significantly. Now we know what Fox gets out of it. Now we know what Trump gets out of it.

The unfortunate victims are the ones who believe what those two unscrupulous sources of information continue to jam down their throats… and that’s the saddest part of it.

Trump, the populist, plays it off like he’s fighting for what’s right, just like you or I would do, and how we’re all victims of some corrupt system… and fighting that system is something we should all do, and he’s the one to lead the charge. What’s ironic is that his brainwashed followers don’t see the irony in it… that the man who swore four years ago that he was going to “drain the swamp” has been filling it with his own collection of swamp monsters, and he himself is the scummiest of the beasts.

Trump is trying to play the victim card, and it’s staggering that it’s working… successfully convincing people how he has his own set of problems, just like you and me. I mean, sure… he got Covid-19, he got laid off, he’s going to have to move, he’s got money problems. A typical 2020 experience like so many others, ha ha.

The real Americans, the real ones suffering… are the ones who are reaching deep into their not-so-deep-pockets, to send Trump money so he can fight an invented fight, while really… he’s just lining his own grimy pockets. The whole follow-the-money thing is, in this case, beyond disgusting.

December 3, 2020

By |2020-12-03T20:40:43-08:00December 3rd, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Business & Economics|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |8 Comments
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December 2, 2020

One million, divided by 365, equals 2,740… and, for the first time, that number was exceeded in the U.S. with respect to daily deaths… which simply means that at the present rate, C19 would claim more than a million American lives annually.

Fortunately, that’s not going to happen. Notwithstanding the present president’s disregard and complete lack of giving a shit with respect to doing anything to mitigate those deaths, vaccines are coming. Yeah, for all of you who want to heap praise on Trump for getting it done… how about you heap that praise on the tens of thousands of researchers whose hard work over many decades is what actually led to these vaccines. What Trump could’ve done, and hasn’t, is help keep things together before the vaccines arrive. It wouldn’t have taken much… a well-placed Tweet here or there, some sanity with respect to federal policy regarding masks and social distancing.

Whatever, the damage is done, and will be felt for decades and, for the moment, continues to rage with numbers that are scary. They’d be a hell of a lot more scary were it not for the vaccines, but even that is tempered by the brainwashed tens of millions who’ll refuse to get vaccinated, thanks to said soon-to-be-former-president’s nonsensical mixed messages.

Today, the U.K. became the first country outside of China and Russia to approve a vaccine. They’re planning the roll-out of the Pfizer vaccine as soon as next week. This is the one that needs to be kept super-cold, so there are logistical challenges to overcome. For what it’s worth, the Pfizer vaccine is one of seven that Canada has pre-ordered. Moderna and AstraZeneca, the two others with recently published excellent results, are also on that list.

When will Canada get a vaccine? That’s a good question, and the answer depends on who you ask. I’ve asked that question from many people who might have better than random guesses, and I’m feeling more optimistic than others. There’s a rumour that Trudeau screwed it all up and we’ll be waiting for months; that doesn’t seem to be the case. I know, this person said this and this person said that. I wish I could detail a bit what I’ve heard, but… for the moment… was told not to say more. And, for what it’s worth, this is friend of a friend of a friend sort of knowledge… but… it if it’s accurate, it’s promising. Stay tuned…

December 2, 2020

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By |2020-12-02T20:16:48-08:00December 2nd, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Business & Economics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |7 Comments
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November 29, 2020

As the Trump presidency slowly comes to a sputtering halt, one lingering question in the “Now what?” department has to do with the forthcoming legal entanglements in which the soon-to-be-former-president will find himself.

To begin with, there is the idea that he’d pardon himself, but that’s far from trivial.

First of all, there’s the question of whether he can actually do that. There isn’t agreement on that point, but it doesn’t matter. That pesky issue can be easily sidestepped… just resign a few hours before noon on January 20th, swear-in Mike Pence for what would be the shortest presidency in history, and have him do it.

But that doesn’t really address the salient issue of pardoning him… which is, of what? Both Trump and his diehard minions have been telling us for years… it’s all smoke… no fire here… move along. That being the case, there’d be nothing to pardon. To some extent, they’re right. You can’t preemptively pardon someone for crimes they haven’t committed, nor admitted to, nor been charged with. There’s no blanket pardon he can grant for the future… “Just in case…” – it doesn’t work that way. So… for any of this to work, Trump would have to admit to the crimes for which he’s seeking a pardon. It’s a magnificent Catch-22.

A lingering question over the last several years has been about just how feasible it actually is to indict a sitting president, and where might those cases go. It seems nobody wanted to test those waters, so it’s been a holding pattern for four years. There were rumours before the 2016 election of what was coming down the line… that, had Trump lost the election, new charges and allegations would’ve been forthcoming. All of that was put on hold.. except there has been an additional four years of opportunity to investigate.

For decades, Donald Trump was synonymous with New York. His real-estate projects, his towers, his skating rink, his reality show, his presence… everywhere. You may have noticed Trump has significantly soured on New York, and the same can be said vice-versa. Trump has made it clear he’ll be moving to Florida and that he’s done with New York. Donald Trump may be done with New York, but New York certainly isn’t done with him. Waiting in the wings, there may be both civil and criminal charges. Trump has been under investigation by both the Manhattan District Attorney and the New York State Attorney General. There are also the numerous allegations of sexual assault. There are lingering tax questions. From civic to state to federal… and from civil to criminal, Trump may be facing a wall of legal problems.

And, with all of that in mind, it’s important to note… presidents can only pardon federal crimes. Nothing at the state level and nothing at the civic level.
A lot of people want their day in court, and many of them will get their wish… in what order, who knows… but I suspect the afternoon of January 20th, 2021 will be a busy one for the filing clerks.

Traditionally, after the new president is sworn in, the former president gets a helicopter ride from the White House to Andrews Air Force Base, and from there, one final ride in Air Force One… to wherever he wants to go. Right around the time a flurry of lawsuits are being filed, Trump will be boarding that plane. The flight plan will already have been filed, but you can always file more than one, just in case… and perhaps, right at that point, he’ll have a difficult decision to make. I wonder if he’ll have on him a little list of alternates… some welcoming places around the world that don’t have extradition treaties… maybe China? No. Russia? Nah. Qatar and the UAE are not unreasonable choices… you can live very well there if you have money.

Or, Georgia. The country… not the state.

By |2020-11-29T23:07:10-08:00November 29th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Humour|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |11 Comments
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November 27, 2020

If you haven’t already seen “The Queen’s Gambit”, you probably have a lot of people telling you that you should… and they’re right. It’s really, really good. You probably know that it’s about chess, but, like chess itself, it’s about a lot more.

The basics of chess are easy to learn; anyone can learn how the pieces move in less than 10 minutes. But then you spend a lifetime trying to move them well. I’m happy that series came into this household… I only wish it’d been at the start of this pandemic. There would’ve been a lot more quality screen time in those early days.

It was funny… a few nights ago, to hear my son yell for me… “Dad! Help!” – I ran over there… what, is the room on fire? No… he was on chess.com, playing against some guy in Russia, and found himself in a precarious position, not quite sure what to do because he thought he was about to lose his queen. That’s quality father/son time right there, ganging up to beat some Russian in chess. Right on.

I get the impression that Donald Trump wouldn’t be a very good chess player, and here’s why I think that: Chess requires you to think a few moves ahead, and if you can’t do that, you have zero chance of success. Just like in life, if you lead it in such a way that’s entirely reactionary – stimulus/response, stimulus/response… you’re going to have a tough go of it. That lifestyle works well for single-celled organisms, but our real world is a lot more complicated than a paramecium needing to navigate a petri dish. And in chess, if every time you move a piece it gets taken… and then you stare at the board wondering how that could’ve happened… well, you’re doing it wrong.

The stimulus/response pattern of the soon-to-be-former-president is something I guess we’ve gotten used to over the last four years, but now that he’s on his way out, it’s a little more pathetic than it used to be.

Actually, at the start, it was far from pathetic; it was frightening, with real-world consequences.

Early in the presidency, Trump was watching TV and saw something… and then Tweeted about how the new Air Force One is too expensive, and “Cancel Order!” There’s a lot of misinformation in that Tweet to begin with, but the immediate response was a sharp drop in Boeing’s stock price. It recovered quickly when people realized the president didn’t know what he was talking about, but the damage was done, and it was a good indication that this guy shoots from the hip and doesn’t really consider the implications. Much bigger and broader shooting from the hip was his unilateral and unexpected Muslim travel ban. Never mind that it violated the first amendment, the fifth amendment, the Immigration and Nationality Act, the Religious Freedom Restoration Act and the Administrative Procedure Act… who cares. You can see Trump, with his infallible logic… Muslim = Terrorist, Terrorist = Bad, Banning Bad is good… what’s the problem? No need to consider the consequences. We all remember the chaos that resulted, and how much effort it took to resolve it.

But these days, with only 53 days, 15 hours and 57 minutes (but who’s counting) left in his presidency, his shooting from the hip holds little clout. Now, it’s the same old baseless nonsense, and none of it is surprising to hear. I honestly thought he might have some surprises waiting in the wings, but… nothing. Like an awful chess player, he telegraphed ahead everything he had planned. He called the election a fraud before it even took place, threatened he had lawyers in place ready to challenge it, and, as a result, everyone was ready for it. He served up exactly what was expected.

Of course, there was no wide-spread fraud, and the “superstar” team of lawyers who were happy to say “Yes! Yes! Yes!” to him in person, and who were happy to take his money… most of them bailed before making complete fools of themselves. Those that stuck it out longer faced serious admonition from judges who were not happy to see their court’s time wasted with this nonsense, especially when the stakes were so high. Vague handwaving and unfounded, grandiose statements don’t work well in a court of law. Case after case was thrown out, some of them angrily.

At a recent press conference, Donald Trump was repeatedly asked if he was going to concede. His long-winded answers of irrelevant bullshit and false claims were exactly what we’ve grown accustomed to. He never answered the question, which of course, in itself, is the answer.

If this were a chess match, he’d be the king, pretty much left all alone. All that’s left of his colour is the king itself… and a few pawns. The other side has more than it needs… the queen, a rook or two, a knight or two. A bishop. Perhaps a few pawns. Perhaps 80 million pawns. Whatever.

In 53 days, 15 hours and 57 minutes, his Tweets will go from presidential and influential… to those from just another right-wing conspiracy-theory-believing nut-job. Right now, he could be Tweeting about how maybe masks aren’t such a bad idea. How maybe a little social distancing wouldn’t hurt. Will he do that? Of course not.

And during that time, more than 5 million Americans will become infected with C19, and more than 100,000 will die. And, after all of that, Donald Trump, the former president, will have the rest of his life to think about what he did, what he didn’t do, and what a mess he left behind. Maybe he can think about it while he’s sitting in prison, where he belongs… and where there isn’t much else to do.

Well, I guess he could always take up chess.

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By |2020-11-27T19:45:06-08:00November 27th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Humour, Movies, Music & Entertainment|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |12 Comments
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November 20, 2020

In hindsight, there was plenty to learn from Donald Trump’s nomination of the first (of his three) Supreme Court Justices. Before Barrett and Kavanaugh, there was Gorsuch.

This was very early into his presidency, and the announcement was to be like no other. Trump wanted a full-on reality-TV moment. Had he had his way, it would’ve been like a Bachelor/Bachelorette-like Rose Ceremony – held in the White House Rose Garden, of course – where Trump would’ve had his three finalists standing there, and with some great drama – heck, perhaps even by handing them a Rose – revealed to the world his choice. One of the other two, Tom Hardiman, was actually on his way to Washington for the “ceremony” until an insider reached out and told him something like, “Dude, bail… this is bullshit.”

Trump still made the best of it. He had Gorsuch and his wife hidden away, in a hallway. Trump made it all about himself, as usual, and after his magnanimous speech, finally had Tom Gorsuch, and his wife, emerge… to the thunderous applause so that he, Trump, could take credit for his awesome selection. “What is going on?”, asked some people. “This is going to be fun!”, said some others.

The astonishing reality show is exactly two months away from cancellation. Many of the actors have already moved on, some trying to distance themselves from the negative reviews, to find new shows. Some are holding on, hoping for a sequel. They will soon be bitterly disappointed. Nobody is picking this up for another 4-year run.

The problem, of course, is that the star of the show doesn’t want to go away, and it’d be funny were it not so tragic. His pathetic attempts of “They love me! They really love me!” aren’t going to take him anywhere.

Yet – and this is where it gets very serious – every single hour that goes by, with this petulant child-actor’s attitude of “If I lose, we all lose”, people are dying. The studio needs to reconfigure for the next 4 seasons, but they can’t, because the soon-to-be-former star won’t hand over the keys. He just makes lame and baseless excuses. How appropriate it was for Giuliani to be holding that almost-final press conference in the parking lot of a Four Seasons. Not the elegant hotel, of course, but the kind of Four Seasons operation the specializes in shoveling manure, exactly what his BFF/client has been doing for four long seasons.

It’s far too late to restore the tarnished image in which Trump has enveloped himself, but like any good show or series, some people just remember the end. The last 10 minutes of the last episode. And here we are, and Trump could actually make a difference. With now literally nothing else left to lose as president, he could at least leave it with a bit of a swan song… and invoke a federal mask policy. It would upset a lot of his core. It would also save tens of thousands of lives. It’s sad – tragic – that he won’t.

Closer to home, we *do* have a new mask policy, and whether you agree with it or not, how about you just do it? We can discuss it next year, whether it was as right as I said or as wrong as you said… because we both agree we’d like to get to next year, and we’d also like everyone around us, especially those we care deeply about, to get there as well. Yes, you might be young and healthy, and maybe this won’t affect you… notwithstanding a recent death here in BC was an otherwise-healthy man in his 30s… he and some co-workers tested positive. The co-workers all had mild symptoms, but the unfortunate victim got it much worse… and the point is, that even if you think you’re immortal, you have friends and family who are older, immunocompromised and/or simply as unlucky as that guy whose friends, family and co-workers still can’t believe it.

Outbreaks can happen anywhere, but the serious ones we hear about are care homes, which of course are populated with the people who are at highest risk… and it’s within those walls that infections can spread like wildfire. Tabor Home, a long-term care facility in Abbotsford had 4 cases (two staff, two residents) two weeks ago. Today, it’s over 100. How did that happen…?

There are more of you out there than you think… that have this virus. Eighty percent of you will never even know it… yet, for a while, you were just as infectious as anyone else… and somewhere along the line… while not wearing a mask and/or being too close to someone else, you passed it along… and so on and so on. Breaking those chains of transmissions is what it’s all about, and far more of us are potential links in that chain… that inevitably end at someone who is unable to fight it off. Once it enters an environment like a care-home, it hits hard.

If you think wearing a mask or not getting together socially or not travelling isn’t to your benefit, think about others… because your irresponsibility could literally kill someone else. Think about them… some elderly resident of a care home… whose life is worth far more than your irresponsible little maskless get-together. The get-together can wait. That elderly resident is also waiting… for a hug from their grand-daughter. Do your part to make sure that eventually happens.

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By |2020-11-22T17:04:33-08:00November 20th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Politics, Science of COVID-19, Humour|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |0 Comments
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November 14, 2020

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is tasked with keeping stock markets fair, clear, transparent and free of fraud. That’s their mandate, and they’re pretty good at doing so, especially these days when super-intelligent super-computers can keep tabs of everything that’s going on every millisecond, and can instantly flag irregularities. Getting away with it, whatever “it” is, is tougher these days.

The most straightforward type of stock fraud is when someone acts on insider information, and the most common version of that is someone inside a public company who’s privy to knowledge that the public doesn’t yet know. It can certainly be the CEO, the CFO, the CIO, the COO… whatever C-letter-O executive you can think of often has knowledge of the sort, but it’s usually not those people who try to pull a fast one. Those guys know they’re being watched, and they’re all already well-compensated. Any shenanigans that would be materially relevant to them would almost-certainly get caught.

No… usually, it’s an intern who runs across something left in the recycle bin next to the copier… who then calls her BFF and asks what she should do with this info, and the BFF texts her boyfriend who knows a bit about the markets. And that guy logs into his Ameritrade account, buys a few call options, and gets totally busted when the SEC flags his trades because it’s so ridiculously blatant.

But, back to the C-people… many of them are partially paid/bonused in shares, and what they do with their shares is scrutinized inside out. Which is why when they intend to buy or sell shares, they need to make it very clear and very well-known, usually in advance. And those filings are all available to the public.

Accordingly, on August 19th of this year, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla filed his intent to sell 132,508 shares of his company, should the share price hit a certain number. On November 9th, Pfizer announced that most excellent news, the one about the 90%-effective vaccine… and the spike in share price hit that number… and the order to sell was executed.

That part of it is simple, and that would be it… except there’s perhaps a troubling little footnote… which is what Bourla may or may not have known back in August. Indeed, the day after he renewed that order to sell, the company issued a press release confirming they were on track to deliver a vaccine candidate in October. But… the sell order had been in place from years earlier, and that was simply the timing of the renewal. And, the announcement didn’t have much of a relevant impact.

None of that will stop people from thinking something’s wrong here… and watchdog groups will call upon the SEC to investigate. The SEC may or may not dig into it any further, though what you’ve read above is pretty-much all there is to it. But… everyone agrees, even the SEC, that it doesn’t look good. Wearing white after Labour Day doesn’t look good either, but it shouldn’t send you to prison. It’s not illegal; just generally bad judgment… the same sort of bad judgement that may have been displayed by Albert Bourla in not pulling the plug on the transaction.

Bourla, who’s been with Pfizer more than 25 years, made over $18 million last year in salary, bonuses and stock allocation. While a lot of noise is being made about the $5.6M he pocketed in this transaction, it’s certainly not $5.6M out of thin air. He’s been earning those shares for a while. Those shares were around $36 before, $40 during the frenzy, now $38. This story is perhaps more hoopla than it deserves. 130,000 shares plus or minus $2 a share equals a quarter million dollars… for a guy who makes more than $18M a year.

On that note too – “buy on rumour, sell on news” – investors who’ve been following all of the these pharmaceutical and biotech companies… the thing is this: share prices move on unexpected news or rumour… and if news comes out that’s unexpected, good or bad, it’ll have a positive or negative effect. Expected news doesn’t move the needle, because that knowledge is already built into the price. We all know Pfizer is working on a vaccine, we all know they’re trying to get it done ASAP.

The unexpected news in this case was simply the “90%”, and all of the day traders who jumped on it and bought bought bought… might regret it, unless they’re going to hold on to it for a while… because shortly after, the price slid down again.

The reason is simple… materially, that 90% doesn’t change much. Pfizer is committed to making as much vaccine as they can, for any definable future period of time. The 90% won’t let them make it faster, nor will they be able to charge more because it’s “better”. The purchase contracts for the vaccine are already in place, and even if they weren’t, this wouldn’t affect it. It’s business as usual.

One thing though about the timing of the announcement… it came (very) shortly after the election. Pfizer knew that Trump would jump all over it and take credit for it and make all sorts of bullshit claims about how it’s all due thanks to him. As expected, all of that happened… but after, of course. Was that on purpose? Pfizer claims they’re simply going by the science and reporting things when and where it makes sense to do so. Perhaps that’s true. Or perhaps they knew, and they waited.

It’d be a pretty suitable FU to Trump, to be honest. Would it have altered the course of the election? Doubtful. Who knows. And, really, who cares. There are far more important things to worry about.

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By |2020-11-14T21:35:48-08:00November 14th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Business & Economics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , |0 Comments
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November 13, 2020

Out of the top 20 worst countries to be in, with respect to this virus, there is only one that can claim less than 100 deaths per one million of population. For comparison, as per the attached data, U.S. has 750 and Canada has 283.

But India, a country of 1.4 billion people and widespread poverty and overcrowding and nowhere near enough infrastructure to handle the medical catastrophe this could be if it got out of control — they’re doing surprisingly well. Their number is 93.

They are second in the world for number of total cases; only the U.S., a country with a quarter the population of India, has more. But while 250,000 (and counting) people have died in the U.S., that number is only 130,000 in India. Even Brazil, a country with less than one seventh of India’s population (and a leader as despicable as Trump), has more. So… what’s going on?

Perhaps it’s better testing? But it’s not. The U.S. has tested about 500,000 per million. India has tested 89,000 per million. And through that testing, the U.S. has learned they have 33,000 cases per million, as opposed to India’s 6,300. There are presently almost 4 million active cases in the U.S. There are less than half a million in India.

No… the answer is actually pretty simple. Following the rules…. and masks. There have of course been lockdowns and a level of somewhat sophisticated and targeted Unlocks in different regions… but what has made a big difference is national buy-in with respect to masks, where 90% of the population believes they should be mandatory. There is a fine for not wearing a mask, around $20, but 40% of people think that fine should be increased.

For a while, a couple of months ago, it looked like India might spiral out of control. Their graphs looked a lot like what you see here… except they managed to get it under control… and it starts with people doing their part.

On a related note… Diwali this year begins tomorrow.

Diwali is the 5-day Indian festival of lights. I’m not familiar with the intricacies and symbolism, but the celebration part of it… I think if you change Diwali to Chanukah and the 5 to an 8… it’s pretty close. The whole family gets together, you eat great food, you hang out. Good times. Chanukah is in less than a month. A few weeks after that, Christmas. Right after that, Kwanza. If none of that applies to you, there’s always Festivus.

Dr. Henry reminds me a bit of British policemen, before they were allowed to carry guns. “Stop! Or I will say ‘Stop!’ again!”. Well, there’s only so much she can do. Especially now, as numbers are rising alarmingly… either you get it or you don’t. Two weeks ago was Halloween. Here we are. Where will we be in two weeks? This isn’t rocket science. Cause and effect are taught in grade school.

Whatever you’re celebrating… you know what’s ok and what’s not. For your benefit, for your family’s benefit, for everyone’s benefit… be responsible.

COVID-19 Daily Report Graph for November 13, 2020

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By |2020-11-13T19:37:20-08:00November 13th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver, Humour|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , |0 Comments
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November 10, 2020

The KGB (today known as the FSB) is well-known for their “honey pot” traps. A foreign official shows up in Moscow and is treated to the finest food and the finest wine. And, through some clever social engineering, some of the finest women enter the picture as well… whose duty to Mother Russia is to seduce the target. This is all very-well thought out in advance, the who/what/where/when… which allows all of the activities to be secretly monitored and recorded. The victim is then told about (and possibly shown) the footage, and their cooperation is assured. Textbook blackmail.

But… it doesn’t always work out that way.

In 1945, Indonesia secured its independence from Dutch colonial rule. The first president they elected, a man by the name of Sukarno, fiercely loved his country. And women too, a fact that was well-known to the Soviets when Sukarno visited in 1960. It was quite a coincidence that a whole crew of attractive air hostesses was staying at the same hotel as Sukarno. Of course, it was no coincidence at all… and, of course, they weren’t actually stewardesses… they were all spies. Sukarno picked his favourites, and then, yadda yadda.

I wasn’t there to record the aftermath, but from what I gather, the conversation before the next day’s official meeting went something like this:

Soviets: “Mr. President, before we begin the negotiations, you should know that last night’s activities – all of them, including your time with Valentina and Natasha in your hotel room, were recorded on film. But as long as you…”

Sukarno: “What?! You filmed that? All of it? Like… everything…?!”

Soviets: “Yes, Mr. President… but if you…”

Sukarno: “AWESOME!! Hey, do you think you could score me a couple copies of that film!? They’re going to love this back home!! High five!!”

Sukarno thought he’d be a hero, going home with evidence he’d conquered some Russian beauties. The reception back home to his cavorting is not known, but given he had 9 wives throughout his life, many of the overlapping, it probably wasn’t a big deal.

In 2017, a British spy filed 17 intelligence reports, one of which outlined Donald Trump’s activities back in 2013 when he was in Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant. There is apparently a video, recorded in the Presidential Suite of the Ritz-Carlton… and nobody is too sure exactly what’s on the entire thing, but part of it is Trump watching two women urinating on the bed – the same bed in which the Obamas had previously slept.

These sorts of tapes rarely see the light of day. They’re very useful for “controlling the asset” while said asset is of any use. And once the asset is no longer relevant, there’s no point in disclosing it. In fact, there’s every reason not to… because it shows everyone around the world currently being blackmailed that as long as they play along, they’ll forever be ok.

That partially answers the question of “What do the Russians have on Trump?”… but it doesn’t really answer the question of “Now what?”

There is an emerging concern, and it’s a deep concern.

Trump knows a lot of state secrets. Given his treatment of the Russians over the last four years, it’s not hard to imagine they have something on him, and it’s pretty bad. And, he owes hundreds of millions of dollars. If you’re Putin, you’re holding the only winning trifecta ticket, where three longshots managed to come in 1-2-3. And now you’re pondering when and how to cash it in.

Let’s hope even Donald Trump, as low as he might stoop… and he’s stooped mighty low… would never reach those depths. Because if he did, this pandemic would be the least of the U.S. concerns.

HK COVID-19 Daily Report Graph for November 10, 2020

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By |2020-11-10T19:18:48-08:00November 10th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Business & Economics, History|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |3 Comments
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