Politics

November 22, 2020

We’ll have to wait till tomorrow to see some B.C. numbers, so until then, let’s shift our attention eastward by one province and look at Alberta, who unfortunately is giving us a textbook example of what exponential growth looks like.

For today, I’ve added a third row of graphs. The top row of the three is each province’s journey through this pandemic, from day one. The bottom two rows represent only the 2nd wave; first, logarithmically… and, the bottom one, normally.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words, but sometimes, it’s not because the picture is so indescribably beautiful… but because the picture is difficult to describe. If math isn’t your thing, hearing a sentence like “the plot an exponential curve on a logarithmic scale will be a perfectly straight line.”… might sound confusing. But when you look at the pictures, it makes perfect sense.

Have a look at Alberta, and have a look at the bottom two graphs. They are displaying the same dataset, but on the bottom one, the Y-axis is linear, ie normal, ie… perfectly spaced out. The one above it is logarithmic, which “squashes” the Y-axis the bigger it gets.

The way a logarithmic scale works is that it perfectly compensates for that exponential growth… which is why those smooth, increasing curves of the bottom graph (TTDs of 20 and 25) show up as perfectly straight lines on the graph above it.

Accordingly, the seven-day moving average of daily case-counts of Alberta, the thicker black line, follows the curve on the bottom graph and follows the straight line on the upper graph. While the logarithmic graphs tend to minimize the growth as things get worse (the steepness gets squashed), the real-data graphs tell the truth. It’s clear from looking at these graphs exactly where Alberta is heading, if things don’t change. It’s clear as well that Saskatchewan’s recent increases are far worse than TTDs of 20 or 25; closer to 15 over the last few days.

Exactly 8 months ago, we were heading into the last week of March wondering the same thing we are today… I wonder what the week ahead will look like. It feels like a lifetime ago, March 22nd… that was the 6th day of me writing about all of this (here it is if you’re interested: https://kemeny.ca/2020/03/22/march-22-2020/). The U.S. had 32,000 cases. Canada had less than 1,500. B.C. had less than 500.

Here we are today (Day 251) – and the sentiment hasn’t changed. Just the numbers, which are all a lot bigger.

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Day 250 – November 21, 2020

No B.C. numbers today, but here’s a brief look elsewhere…

Parts of Ontario (Toronto and Peel) are in a lockdown of the sort we saw around here at the start of this pandemic. Very tight constraints with respect to with whom you can get together, and strict rules around what that needs to look like. Everything else is pretty-much closed, except the essentials.

Saskatchewan saw a huge increase in numbers today, something they saw coming; measures were put in last week, but they’re now dealing with the effects of what came before. As we know, it can take a couple of weeks to realize the effects of these measures.

Alberta also set its record for new cases in the last 24 hours.

Today’s lesson in exponential growth comes from Nunavut… where, for the longest time (like till November), they’d seen zero cases. They got their first one Nov. 6th… their second one Nov. 7th… and then two more Nov. 8th. Then 8, 18, 26, 60… and they’re now over 100. Their graph is not a gentle slope or a hockey stick… it’s a literal cliff wall which they slammed into, after 7 months of flat road. That’s how this thing can take off.

In the spring, it was all about flattening the curve. For those late to the game, like Nunavut and Saskatchewan, where they never got a first wave, that’s where they’re at.

For places like Ontario and Quebec, it’s not just about flattening the potential frightening growth… it’s that the numbers, as flat as they may be (which they’re not) are already really big.

What’s worse… if you have 100 hospital beds available… to see cases go from 2 to 8 to 20 to 50 in a few days? Or to see them go 98, 99, 103, 98?

The answer is… it depends… on what measures are in place. Drastic measures are needed in example A, but example B is just as frantic, because it’s evidence of a problem that’s stressing the limits and that’s not going away unless something is done about it. Roughly speaking, example A is Nunavut and example B is Ontario.

The rate of growth is interesting to look at, on an apples-to-apples basis. I’ve added Time To Double (TTD) lines to the provincial graphs, and I’ve set them all (for now) to 20 and 25, so you can compare the data against those straight lines… and across provinces. Don’t worry too much about where those lines cross, just look at the slope of the data compared to the TTD lines. B.C. and Alberta are examples of consistent growth… you can see the recent growth is virtually parallel to the TTDs of 25. And at their steepest recent points, both Saskatchewan and Manitoba had recent TTDs approaching 10.

You’ll notice that Quebec and Ontario are a lot flatter. Indeed, their TTDs are 50 and 77 respectively. Their issue isn’t so much exponential growth… it’s just that any growth is already putting pressure on a system that at some point won’t be able to handle it.

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November 20, 2020

In hindsight, there was plenty to learn from Donald Trump’s nomination of the first (of his three) Supreme Court Justices. Before Barrett and Kavanaugh, there was Gorsuch.

This was very early into his presidency, and the announcement was to be like no other. Trump wanted a full-on reality-TV moment. Had he had his way, it would’ve been like a Bachelor/Bachelorette-like Rose Ceremony – held in the White House Rose Garden, of course – where Trump would’ve had his three finalists standing there, and with some great drama – heck, perhaps even by handing them a Rose – revealed to the world his choice. One of the other two, Tom Hardiman, was actually on his way to Washington for the “ceremony” until an insider reached out and told him something like, “Dude, bail… this is bullshit.”

Trump still made the best of it. He had Gorsuch and his wife hidden away, in a hallway. Trump made it all about himself, as usual, and after his magnanimous speech, finally had Tom Gorsuch, and his wife, emerge… to the thunderous applause so that he, Trump, could take credit for his awesome selection. “What is going on?”, asked some people. “This is going to be fun!”, said some others.

The astonishing reality show is exactly two months away from cancellation. Many of the actors have already moved on, some trying to distance themselves from the negative reviews, to find new shows. Some are holding on, hoping for a sequel. They will soon be bitterly disappointed. Nobody is picking this up for another 4-year run.

The problem, of course, is that the star of the show doesn’t want to go away, and it’d be funny were it not so tragic. His pathetic attempts of “They love me! They really love me!” aren’t going to take him anywhere.

Yet – and this is where it gets very serious – every single hour that goes by, with this petulant child-actor’s attitude of “If I lose, we all lose”, people are dying. The studio needs to reconfigure for the next 4 seasons, but they can’t, because the soon-to-be-former star won’t hand over the keys. He just makes lame and baseless excuses. How appropriate it was for Giuliani to be holding that almost-final press conference in the parking lot of a Four Seasons. Not the elegant hotel, of course, but the kind of Four Seasons operation the specializes in shoveling manure, exactly what his BFF/client has been doing for four long seasons.

It’s far too late to restore the tarnished image in which Trump has enveloped himself, but like any good show or series, some people just remember the end. The last 10 minutes of the last episode. And here we are, and Trump could actually make a difference. With now literally nothing else left to lose as president, he could at least leave it with a bit of a swan song… and invoke a federal mask policy. It would upset a lot of his core. It would also save tens of thousands of lives. It’s sad – tragic – that he won’t.

Closer to home, we *do* have a new mask policy, and whether you agree with it or not, how about you just do it? We can discuss it next year, whether it was as right as I said or as wrong as you said… because we both agree we’d like to get to next year, and we’d also like everyone around us, especially those we care deeply about, to get there as well. Yes, you might be young and healthy, and maybe this won’t affect you… notwithstanding a recent death here in BC was an otherwise-healthy man in his 30s… he and some co-workers tested positive. The co-workers all had mild symptoms, but the unfortunate victim got it much worse… and the point is, that even if you think you’re immortal, you have friends and family who are older, immunocompromised and/or simply as unlucky as that guy whose friends, family and co-workers still can’t believe it.

Outbreaks can happen anywhere, but the serious ones we hear about are care homes, which of course are populated with the people who are at highest risk… and it’s within those walls that infections can spread like wildfire. Tabor Home, a long-term care facility in Abbotsford had 4 cases (two staff, two residents) two weeks ago. Today, it’s over 100. How did that happen…?

There are more of you out there than you think… that have this virus. Eighty percent of you will never even know it… yet, for a while, you were just as infectious as anyone else… and somewhere along the line… while not wearing a mask and/or being too close to someone else, you passed it along… and so on and so on. Breaking those chains of transmissions is what it’s all about, and far more of us are potential links in that chain… that inevitably end at someone who is unable to fight it off. Once it enters an environment like a care-home, it hits hard.

If you think wearing a mask or not getting together socially or not travelling isn’t to your benefit, think about others… because your irresponsibility could literally kill someone else. Think about them… some elderly resident of a care home… whose life is worth far more than your irresponsible little maskless get-together. The get-together can wait. That elderly resident is also waiting… for a hug from their grand-daughter. Do your part to make sure that eventually happens.

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November 19, 2020

Earlier today, Dr. Henry laid down the law… a detailed and lengthy list of restrictions, which are now in place for at least two weeks (Dec 7th)… and this now applies to the entire province. The whole thing can be read at www.bccdc.ca – but here’s the summary… go back to how you were doing things in March and April: No social gatherings outside your immediate bubble. No non-essential travel. And by the way, masks are now mandatory. Finally, some clout behind the good sense. If you’re out in public, indoors, wear a mask. It’s that simple, and every business and every person walking into a business… needs to respect that.

As heavy-handed as it sounds, it’s with a finish line on the horizon… and the idea is to get there without overwhelming our medical system. The numbers don’t lie; if we don’t change course, we will run out of hospital beds and equipment before we get there… yet, we know there are people who won’t follow the rules. We know there are people who held lavish parties over the weekend. Heck, I know we’re not supposed to talk about it, but police in New York busted an actual Fight Club, with 200 fighters and numerous participants all crowded together. The U.S. went over 12,000,000 cases today… over 2,000 deaths today, for the first time. Almost 200,000 new cases today. Ouch.

It takes a while to see the effects of these orders… so, again, like back in March/April… we sit and wait… and hope things don’t spiral out of control.

From a flattening-the-curve point of view, when we’d actually flattened it… back in June, the cases Time To Double was 175 days. That dropped to 100 in July. In October, cases were doubling every 43 days. In the first week of November, that number dropped to 26. In the second week of November, down to 24. Right now it’s at 23. I’d be surprised and delighted if it managed to stay above 20, but nothing changed till today, so the trend that got us here is likely to continue before it turns around. Now, we just wait and see how much worse it gets before it gets better.

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November 17, 2020

Back at the start of the pandemic, when things were growing frighteningly out of control, there were a lot of charts and diagrams being published about the present and future potential “Time to Double”. When you’re dealing with exponential growth, the steeper the curve, the quicker the numbers double from where they are today. For a while, things got frantic. Then they got flat. Now they’re not so flat anymore, but certainly not as steep as they were back then. Which is perhaps why there’s less panic about these ever-increasing numbers.

But maybe there should be a bit more concern than what’s actually being seen. It’s harder to move bigger numbers. But that’s because they’re already big, and we’re not just dealing with relative numbers here. We’re dealing with absolutes.

If you look at B.C, it’s pretty consistent over the last week… a 3% growth of cases on a daily basis. That translates to a TTD of about 25 days… meaning, at the rate things are increasing, we will go from 23,500 cases to 47,000 by Dec. 12th. We’d be hitting 100,000 by early January. The demand on hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators will scale up proportionally as well. Today’s hospitalization and ICU numbers are the highest ever in this province. What’s also the highest, by a lot, is the 11 deaths over the last 24 hours.

I’m growing uneasy at the nonchalance that’s out there, potentially starting at the top. I’ll be honest, if I were in charge, commanding traffic, there would be some stiff measures being thrown into place. I’m clear on the reasons being given as to why that’s not happening; that the majority of transmission is taking place in private homes, by the nonchalant crowd who simply won’t listen to reason. And while that’s going on, restaurants and many other businesses are all open, because they have all the safety measures in place.

That’s all fine in theory, but for some reason I keep hearing about people catching this; people who are taking all the safety measures they can, and they simply get it, and they have no idea when or where or why. So yes, I would be heavy-handed and I would take a lot of flak for it and some businesses might fail, especially those who count on the holiday season to see them through the much leaner rest-of-the-year. But I would mitigate this with some intelligent guesswork with respect to what the future has to offer. Nobody likes to make announcements they can’t live up to, so we get ‘safe’ guesses. On the flipside, never underestimate the human potential when our backs are against the wall.

I have a bet with a friend that I think I’m going to cash, made back in March – me saying there will be a vaccine by the end of the calendar year; perhaps not one readily available, but the one we’ll all eventually get by the time they manufacture enough. But the public, not just test-subjects, will be getting jabbed with it by Dec 31st. And it’s looking likely that might happen.

We’ve all heard vaccines typically take 3 to 5 years. We’ve all heard this one will be super-rushed to get it down to 12 to 18 months. Here we are, 9 months into it… with a very real possibility that this particular finish line has already been hit. Way to go, humans.

Which brings me back to the point… a very viable finish line on the horizon, with a time period of “now till then” which is shorter than what we suffered through the first time. We’re hearing summer. We’re hearing by this time next year. And I’m saying it’ll be sooner than that… because it won’t be a magic switch. This will be like trying to get a car going, starting in 6th gear. You have to let that clutch out super-slowly, and you might damage it, but if you do it right, you won’t stall the car and eventually you’ll be up to speed. It’s a painful process to get there, but at some point, you realize your foot is completely off the clutch… and you’re driving normally. Similarly, as things slowly re-open for real, one day you’ll realize it’s back pretty-much back to normal.

When we locked this province down back in the spring, there were outcries of “overkill” and “our economy” and all that. But it worked. With a big, vast unknown future in front of us, we bought into it, we did it, and it worked.

I think it’s time to take that deep breath, suck it up, and do it all again… this time, with that finish line well in sight. Call me Captain Overkill – I don’t mind. I know a bit about risk/reward, and I’m not known for not taking risks… but that means carefully thinking about it and picking your spots. And this one, to me, is a no brainer. Everyone go home for a few weeks, close schools early, suffer through a very weird holiday season… and then things, sooner than later, will be better. A lot better. I promise.

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November 15, 2020

On the evening of March 21st, 2006, the B.C. Ferry Queen of the North departed from Prince Rupert, headed for Port Hardy. There is a tremendous amount of controversy as to what happened that night… books have been written, court cases have been tried, people have been fired, and… policies have been changed.

That night, thanks to the gross negligence of the two people on the bridge of the vessel – the ship’s fourth officer and the Quartermaster (who may have been fighting, or may have been having sex – either way, completely distracted), the ship missed the timing of an important maneuver, hit an underwater ridge of rocks that tore open the hull, and sank. Were it not for the heroic efforts of the Gitka’a’ata people in Hartley Bay, things would’ve been far worse. They took to the water in every boat they had, and rescued everyone they could. Unfortunately, 2 out of the 101 people on board were trapped, and are presumed to have gone down with the ship; their bodies have never been found.

One outcome of this tragedy was the policy change that made it mandatory for all ferry passengers to leave their vehicles during travel, lest the ship should sink and you be trapped.

The unlikeliness of that happening is difficult to overstate. BC Ferries provided more than 160,000 trips last year, moving close to 22 million passengers. Multiply that by 10 or 20 or 50 years, it doesn’t really matter… all you’re doing is changing your chances of dying on a ferry from one in a million to one in a billion or trillion or zillion. Whatever.

This policy does not sit well with many people, and I’m one of them. If I want to sit in the comfort of my car for the journey… maybe I have a crying baby or two, finally asleep in their car seats. Maybe I have a dog who’s cozy in his spot. Maybe I just want to listen to my music, read my book, play on my phone… in peace, in my environment. Maybe I have a broken leg and don’t want to be hobbling all over the place. Over the decades, I’ve had many reasons. More recently, one of those reasons was, of course, this pandemic… and B.C. Ferries, initially, agreed. In fact, they flipped the rule 180 early in this pandemic. Stay in your car. Don’t you DARE come upstairs, unless it’s a dire emergency. Sounds good.

Now, they’ve flipped it back again, at perhaps the worst possible time… and they’re being surprisingly adamant – arguably militant – about it. I really don’t get it. Persistent vigilance of the vehicle decks. Threats of fines or bans.

Since everyone *has* to get out now, it’s very crowded upstairs. The elevators are slow. The staircases are cramped. The cafeteria is full of people eating. The seating area is full of mask-deniers making selfie-videos of themselves showing how awesome they are, flaunting their freedom and laughing at all the people around them who are wearing masks and trying to socially-distance in an impossible environment.

A few things need to change here in B.C.

  1. This ferry policy has to go. In the midst of this pandemic, I don’t think I need to spell it out. If someone from B.C. Ferries can explain to me how staying in my car is more dangerous or puts me more at risk than the potential C19 exposure, I’d like to hear the argument. And I’m speaking for the benefit of others as well. What if I’m contagious and don’t even know it? You’re making me put everyone else at higher risk.
  2. B.C. is the only province not publishing anything C19-related over the weekend. No press release, no numbers, no update, no nothing. Everywhere else, whether they have over 120,000 cases (Quebec) or less than 20 (Nunavut), they’re keeping the information flowing continually, seven days a week.
  3. Mask policy – it’s high time they are made mandatory everywhere here in B.C., period. “Strongly urged” is no longer sufficient. Enough of the “we’re polite and we’ll do the right thing” mantra, and enough of the “people so inclined will ignore the rules anyway”. Just because the province doesn’t feel it can enforce it, it doesn’t mean you and I can’t. I’d welcome the opportunity to tell some mask-denier who taunts me with “Why should I?” with some sort of clout. “Because it’s the law”. “Because it’s an order”. Too much wishy-washy going on here, and the stakes are too high. It’s pretty clear what we’re heading towards, so let’s get ahead of it a bit. If the time for a mandatory mask enforcement is coming anyway (and it certainly is, or, at least, certainly should be), let’s just get on with it now.

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November 14, 2020

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is tasked with keeping stock markets fair, clear, transparent and free of fraud. That’s their mandate, and they’re pretty good at doing so, especially these days when super-intelligent super-computers can keep tabs of everything that’s going on every millisecond, and can instantly flag irregularities. Getting away with it, whatever “it” is, is tougher these days.

The most straightforward type of stock fraud is when someone acts on insider information, and the most common version of that is someone inside a public company who’s privy to knowledge that the public doesn’t yet know. It can certainly be the CEO, the CFO, the CIO, the COO… whatever C-letter-O executive you can think of often has knowledge of the sort, but it’s usually not those people who try to pull a fast one. Those guys know they’re being watched, and they’re all already well-compensated. Any shenanigans that would be materially relevant to them would almost-certainly get caught.

No… usually, it’s an intern who runs across something left in the recycle bin next to the copier… who then calls her BFF and asks what she should do with this info, and the BFF texts her boyfriend who knows a bit about the markets. And that guy logs into his Ameritrade account, buys a few call options, and gets totally busted when the SEC flags his trades because it’s so ridiculously blatant.

But, back to the C-people… many of them are partially paid/bonused in shares, and what they do with their shares is scrutinized inside out. Which is why when they intend to buy or sell shares, they need to make it very clear and very well-known, usually in advance. And those filings are all available to the public.

Accordingly, on August 19th of this year, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla filed his intent to sell 132,508 shares of his company, should the share price hit a certain number. On November 9th, Pfizer announced that most excellent news, the one about the 90%-effective vaccine… and the spike in share price hit that number… and the order to sell was executed.

That part of it is simple, and that would be it… except there’s perhaps a troubling little footnote… which is what Bourla may or may not have known back in August. Indeed, the day after he renewed that order to sell, the company issued a press release confirming they were on track to deliver a vaccine candidate in October. But… the sell order had been in place from years earlier, and that was simply the timing of the renewal. And, the announcement didn’t have much of a relevant impact.

None of that will stop people from thinking something’s wrong here… and watchdog groups will call upon the SEC to investigate. The SEC may or may not dig into it any further, though what you’ve read above is pretty-much all there is to it. But… everyone agrees, even the SEC, that it doesn’t look good. Wearing white after Labour Day doesn’t look good either, but it shouldn’t send you to prison. It’s not illegal; just generally bad judgment… the same sort of bad judgement that may have been displayed by Albert Bourla in not pulling the plug on the transaction.

Bourla, who’s been with Pfizer more than 25 years, made over $18 million last year in salary, bonuses and stock allocation. While a lot of noise is being made about the $5.6M he pocketed in this transaction, it’s certainly not $5.6M out of thin air. He’s been earning those shares for a while. Those shares were around $36 before, $40 during the frenzy, now $38. This story is perhaps more hoopla than it deserves. 130,000 shares plus or minus $2 a share equals a quarter million dollars… for a guy who makes more than $18M a year.

On that note too – “buy on rumour, sell on news” – investors who’ve been following all of the these pharmaceutical and biotech companies… the thing is this: share prices move on unexpected news or rumour… and if news comes out that’s unexpected, good or bad, it’ll have a positive or negative effect. Expected news doesn’t move the needle, because that knowledge is already built into the price. We all know Pfizer is working on a vaccine, we all know they’re trying to get it done ASAP.

The unexpected news in this case was simply the “90%”, and all of the day traders who jumped on it and bought bought bought… might regret it, unless they’re going to hold on to it for a while… because shortly after, the price slid down again.

The reason is simple… materially, that 90% doesn’t change much. Pfizer is committed to making as much vaccine as they can, for any definable future period of time. The 90% won’t let them make it faster, nor will they be able to charge more because it’s “better”. The purchase contracts for the vaccine are already in place, and even if they weren’t, this wouldn’t affect it. It’s business as usual.

One thing though about the timing of the announcement… it came (very) shortly after the election. Pfizer knew that Trump would jump all over it and take credit for it and make all sorts of bullshit claims about how it’s all due thanks to him. As expected, all of that happened… but after, of course. Was that on purpose? Pfizer claims they’re simply going by the science and reporting things when and where it makes sense to do so. Perhaps that’s true. Or perhaps they knew, and they waited.

It’d be a pretty suitable FU to Trump, to be honest. Would it have altered the course of the election? Doubtful. Who knows. And, really, who cares. There are far more important things to worry about.

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November 13, 2020

Out of the top 20 worst countries to be in, with respect to this virus, there is only one that can claim less than 100 deaths per one million of population. For comparison, as per the attached data, U.S. has 750 and Canada has 283.

But India, a country of 1.4 billion people and widespread poverty and overcrowding and nowhere near enough infrastructure to handle the medical catastrophe this could be if it got out of control — they’re doing surprisingly well. Their number is 93.

They are second in the world for number of total cases; only the U.S., a country with a quarter the population of India, has more. But while 250,000 (and counting) people have died in the U.S., that number is only 130,000 in India. Even Brazil, a country with less than one seventh of India’s population (and a leader as despicable as Trump), has more. So… what’s going on?

Perhaps it’s better testing? But it’s not. The U.S. has tested about 500,000 per million. India has tested 89,000 per million. And through that testing, the U.S. has learned they have 33,000 cases per million, as opposed to India’s 6,300. There are presently almost 4 million active cases in the U.S. There are less than half a million in India.

No… the answer is actually pretty simple. Following the rules…. and masks. There have of course been lockdowns and a level of somewhat sophisticated and targeted Unlocks in different regions… but what has made a big difference is national buy-in with respect to masks, where 90% of the population believes they should be mandatory. There is a fine for not wearing a mask, around $20, but 40% of people think that fine should be increased.

For a while, a couple of months ago, it looked like India might spiral out of control. Their graphs looked a lot like what you see here… except they managed to get it under control… and it starts with people doing their part.

On a related note… Diwali this year begins tomorrow.

Diwali is the 5-day Indian festival of lights. I’m not familiar with the intricacies and symbolism, but the celebration part of it… I think if you change Diwali to Chanukah and the 5 to an 8… it’s pretty close. The whole family gets together, you eat great food, you hang out. Good times. Chanukah is in less than a month. A few weeks after that, Christmas. Right after that, Kwanza. If none of that applies to you, there’s always Festivus.

Dr. Henry reminds me a bit of British policemen, before they were allowed to carry guns. “Stop! Or I will say ‘Stop!’ again!”. Well, there’s only so much she can do. Especially now, as numbers are rising alarmingly… either you get it or you don’t. Two weeks ago was Halloween. Here we are. Where will we be in two weeks? This isn’t rocket science. Cause and effect are taught in grade school.

Whatever you’re celebrating… you know what’s ok and what’s not. For your benefit, for your family’s benefit, for everyone’s benefit… be responsible.

COVID-19 Daily Report Graph for November 13, 2020

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November 10, 2020

The KGB (today known as the FSB) is well-known for their “honey pot” traps. A foreign official shows up in Moscow and is treated to the finest food and the finest wine. And, through some clever social engineering, some of the finest women enter the picture as well… whose duty to Mother Russia is to seduce the target. This is all very-well thought out in advance, the who/what/where/when… which allows all of the activities to be secretly monitored and recorded. The victim is then told about (and possibly shown) the footage, and their cooperation is assured. Textbook blackmail.

But… it doesn’t always work out that way.

In 1945, Indonesia secured its independence from Dutch colonial rule. The first president they elected, a man by the name of Sukarno, fiercely loved his country. And women too, a fact that was well-known to the Soviets when Sukarno visited in 1960. It was quite a coincidence that a whole crew of attractive air hostesses was staying at the same hotel as Sukarno. Of course, it was no coincidence at all… and, of course, they weren’t actually stewardesses… they were all spies. Sukarno picked his favourites, and then, yadda yadda.

I wasn’t there to record the aftermath, but from what I gather, the conversation before the next day’s official meeting went something like this:

Soviets: “Mr. President, before we begin the negotiations, you should know that last night’s activities – all of them, including your time with Valentina and Natasha in your hotel room, were recorded on film. But as long as you…”

Sukarno: “What?! You filmed that? All of it? Like… everything…?!”

Soviets: “Yes, Mr. President… but if you…”

Sukarno: “AWESOME!! Hey, do you think you could score me a couple copies of that film!? They’re going to love this back home!! High five!!”

Sukarno thought he’d be a hero, going home with evidence he’d conquered some Russian beauties. The reception back home to his cavorting is not known, but given he had 9 wives throughout his life, many of the overlapping, it probably wasn’t a big deal.

In 2017, a British spy filed 17 intelligence reports, one of which outlined Donald Trump’s activities back in 2013 when he was in Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant. There is apparently a video, recorded in the Presidential Suite of the Ritz-Carlton… and nobody is too sure exactly what’s on the entire thing, but part of it is Trump watching two women urinating on the bed – the same bed in which the Obamas had previously slept.

These sorts of tapes rarely see the light of day. They’re very useful for “controlling the asset” while said asset is of any use. And once the asset is no longer relevant, there’s no point in disclosing it. In fact, there’s every reason not to… because it shows everyone around the world currently being blackmailed that as long as they play along, they’ll forever be ok.

That partially answers the question of “What do the Russians have on Trump?”… but it doesn’t really answer the question of “Now what?”

There is an emerging concern, and it’s a deep concern.

Trump knows a lot of state secrets. Given his treatment of the Russians over the last four years, it’s not hard to imagine they have something on him, and it’s pretty bad. And, he owes hundreds of millions of dollars. If you’re Putin, you’re holding the only winning trifecta ticket, where three longshots managed to come in 1-2-3. And now you’re pondering when and how to cash it in.

Let’s hope even Donald Trump, as low as he might stoop… and he’s stooped mighty low… would never reach those depths. Because if he did, this pandemic would be the least of the U.S. concerns.

HK COVID-19 Daily Report Graph for November 10, 2020

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November 9, 2020

Tonight… November 9th, marks the 82nd anniversary of an event known as “Kristallnacht”. If you don’t know what that is, here’s a brief summary:

On the evening of November 9th, 1938, the mobs took to the streets in Nazi Germany. Jews were assaulted, beaten, and dragged from their homes… which were then ransacked. Over 7,000 Jewish businesses were looted and destroyed. Hundreds of Jews lost their lives, many by suicide. Over 30,000 Jewish men were arrested and incarcerated in concentration camps.

The word “Kristallnacht” literally means “Crystal Night”, named for the piles of broken glass left behind. Indeed, if you were to try to find a “kick-off’ event for the Holocaust that ultimately claimed the lives of 6,000,000 Jews, this was probably it.

The German police stood around and did nothing to stop it. German citizens not participating stood around, many of them horrified at what they were seeing… but also did nothing.

Historians have been writing about, discussing and analyzing this event (and what led up to it, and what came from it) for decades. And every year, it is commemorated… with events where those who were there talk about their experiences, what they witnessed, how it affected their lives. Every year there are fewer of them… but it is important to remember it, to never forget. Those events are happening tonight, like they do every year… except, this time, via Zoom.

I was at one of these events four years ago, and it was more sombering than usual. Donald Trump had been elected the previous evening, and for many people, it was hitting a little too close to home. Nobody knew what lay ahead. Those historians were nervous; they’d seen this before.

Four years later, here we are… and I can assure you, the tone of this piece would be far different had we seen a different election result. I am not saying another four years of Trump would have led to something like that, but if something like that were being led to, we were in the midst of what it would’ve looked like. I’m sure we can all agree that if Hitler had been “un-elected” four years into his term, Kristallnacht, and everything that came after it, almost certainly wouldn’t have happened.

As ridiculous as they looked, dancing in the streets of Charlottesville with their Tiki Torches purchased at the local Walmart, the brown-shirts-to-be are no joke. That’s the “stand down and stand by” crowd, ready to follow their leader. That “leader” is on his way out, and he’ll eventually leave… flailing, kicking and screaming, firing people indiscriminately… like his Secretary of Defense today. Who knows what else he’ll try to pull in the next 72 days, but 72 is a lot less than 1,533.

I feel very relieved to not have to keep writing these “what if” pieces, because they’re tough to write and fill me with dread. Or, at least, used to. It’s like in one fell swoop, problem gone. And maybe you vehemently disagree that things could ever have gotten so bad. Perhaps you’re right. But now, all the conversations become hypothetical, and that’s a truly wonderful thing. And, to be clear, the underlying problem isn’t gone… there’s plenty of healing and plenty of fixing that needs to happen… but all of that starts from the top, with a true leader.

November 9th. November 11th. These are times to look back and remember, and an important part of remembering is learning; learning from what went wrong… learning so that it doesn’t happen again.

And they’re also times to look forward. It’s a time for optimism, and certainly that’s helped by today’s announcement from Pfizer, and their continuing study whose preliminary results show a vaccine that’s up to 90% effective at preventing C19. Maybe this is the one. Maybe this is close to the one. Either way, it implies it’s a solvable problem and we’re far along the path. It’s an appropriately-timed light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel announcement.

People have been telling each other this for a long time, and I’ve said it here many times… but it bears repeating, especially today: “It’s going to be OK.”

COVID-10 Daily Report Graph for November 9, 2020

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