Sports & Gaming

December 4, 2020

On level 200 at Rogers Arena, here in Vancouver where the Canucks play hockey, you will find a restaurant called the “Captains Room” which accordingly pays homage to the great captains of the team over the years. There, you’ll find names and pictures of Canucks legends like Kurtenbach, Smyl, Linden & Naslund. Canucks fans are nodding.

One Canucks captain who you won’t find up there, nor any trace of his existence anywhere in the building… is arguably one of the greatest players to ever play the game. It certainly helped Mark Messier that he played in Edmonton alongside Gretzky, Kurri, Coffey and other legends, but you have to hand it to the guy… numerous records, and 6 Stanley Cups… and the only player to ever captain two different teams to Stanley Cup victories.

Unfortunately, neither one of those were the Vancouver Canucks. In fact, here in Vancouver, where Messier spent a few years near the twilight of his career, the name Messier is on the same level as a certain Dark Lord from the Harry Potter series; his name should never be mentioned. Canucks fans are still nodding.

It’s a long story why… but the gist of it is that there exist certain ultra-exclusive clubs, and even those who are entitled to be members aren’t always welcomed with open arms.

One very exclusive club that’s about to get a new member in 46 days is perhaps the most exclusive one in existence. It only has 4 members at present, soon to be 5.

Its newest member will be Donald J. Trump, who was born in June of 1946. You know who else was born in 1946, less than a month later? George W. Bush. That’s quite a coincidence. And you know who was born a month after that? William J. Clinton.

That’s a remarkable coincidence… and those three 74-year-olds make up three fifths of still-living (soon-to-be) former presidents. The other two are Jimmy Carter (96) and Barack Obama (59). The fireside chats that would accompany the Scotch and cigars in that club’s reading room… just imagine. Three of those guys could just as easily be high-school buddies.

While the members of that club get together occasionally — for very special events – like, you know, presidential inaugurations, it’s likely that its newest member won’t make many appearances. And that’s probably just fine with the rest of them. The present members set aside politics ages ago. They all get along famously, as do their spouses. A legendary friendship is that of Michelle Obama and George W. Bush…. said to have begun the first time those two met. Michelle approached George with an apology… saying sorry for something that her husband, then president, had said about him. “Oh, shush”, replied Bush.

But Donald and Melania… yeah, I don’t see it. In fact, as we speak, those former presidents have banded together, in essence, against Trump. They’re taking over the reigns of what a president should be messaging during a pandemic. They’re urging people to wear masks, and leading by example. They’re urging everyone to get vaccinated. They’ve offered to do so in front of a camera.

And Biden has already signaled that in his first 100 days, masks will be federally mandated. That’s unlikely to change the minds of the hardened anti-maskers, but at least it’s the right message, one with which four fifths of that club agree.

Once he’s out of office, and before he probably goes to prison, Trump will have plenty of free time to do what he does when he’s not Tweeting nonsense: Golf. Not sure with whom he’ll be golfing, but it won’t be those former presidents.

But here’s an idea… I understand Mark Messier is a really good golfer. Those two should go out for a round or two… they’d have plenty to discuss, not the least of which is how easy it can be to be disliked by so many people.

November 25, 2020

At some point soon, Health Canada will announce the availability of a vaccine. Provincial Health Services across the country are already working on the logistics of providing it to you.

If you ask someone today whether they’ll be getting it, the usual answer is “Of course… but not right away… just want to make sure it’s ok.”

Well… by the time it gets to most of us, it’ll almost certainly be ok. More than ok. In fact, it will have been ok from day 1, where some of the first people to have gotten it would have been at higher risk… front-line workers, elderly people… and they will all be just fine. More than fine.

It’s not an irrational concern; vaccines, as we’ve repeatedly heard, take many years to develop. And, even then, sometimes there are problems. How can this one, super-rushed at every step, be guaranteed to be safe? How can we sacrifice so much time without sacrificing quality?

Part of the answer lies in understanding why it usually takes so long.

First of all, as usual, money. Developing a vaccine isn’t cheap, and isn’t always successful. The millions of dollars it takes aren’t always so easy to find. After the initial idea for the vaccine is thought up, it takes money to develop that thought. A grant gets applied for, and that’s usually not successful… something like the good old 80/20 rule plays out… where only 20% of these proposals actually get funded to proceed. Just getting to that point is a grueling and time-consuming process. Where animal testing will be involved, ethics boards also need to sign off.

In this case, there were no grant proposals. A ton of money was found, and quickly. Bill & Melinda Gates have thrown a staggering $420 million dollars into C19 research. Also, a million dollars that went towards the funding of the Moderna vaccine came from… Dolly Parton. From far and wide, the money rolled in… and what usually takes years (if it happens at all)… took minutes.

This allowed multiple, parallel paths of development. Top minds from every angle tackled this problem, and it was found that developing an mRNA (instead of DNA) vaccine would be the right way to approach things. This inherently saved some time because some concerns that usually need to be addressed became non-issues. You don’t need the actual virus. You don’t need to attenuate it… a tricky process of reducing the virulence of a pathogen, enough that it becomes relatively harmless, but not so much that it becomes useless. All of that takes a lot of careful experimentation… and consumes a lot of time. But in this case, all that was needed was the genome sequence of the virus. The risk is far less with respect to human safety. The bigger risk is whether it’ll work at all.

At some point in the research, a vaccine candidate makes an appearance. And normally, there begins a cycle of testing, publishing, approval and requests for further funding… and each iteration requires more people, more testing, more money, more oversight and more approvals. These cycles take time. Finding more people. Finding more money. Sitting around waiting for approvals. But in this case, there were plenty of people and there was plenty of money. Typically, the people who hold the giant stamps of approval are busy… things enter a queue… to the bottom of the pile, and they slowly sift to the top, at which time they get dealt with. This time… straight to the top.

Eventually, after tests are shown to be successful and safe in large populations (tens of thousands of people), a drug company willing to take some risk gets involved… because they start from scratch, and need to duplicate the results to their satisfaction. The production, the testing results, everything. And if they do that successfully, then they can approach the FDA (or whatever other relevant governing body) for approval… after which they can figure out how they’re going to produce and distribute all of that in a way that makes economic sense.

In this case, a lot of that took place in parallel. We will never know how many millions of doses of non-viable vaccine got thrown into the garbage, and by whom… but with so much money available and so much at stake, it was the right way to do things. If this vaccine candidate might actually be the one, make lots, and make it now… and if turns out to not be the one, oh well… some money was wasted, but the risk/reward made it worth it.

There are already millions of doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine in existence. As we speak, millions more are being made… on the assumption that when this all goes in front of the FDA on December 10th, things will go well… so well that it’ll only be days later when wide-spread distribution will begin. Normally, production would have begun only after FDA approval.

Indeed, the right question that was asked months ago was a simple one… “How do we get a vaccine out to the world as quickly as possible?” – and the answer was to cut corners that wouldn’t affect the safety or effectiveness of the end result. And that’s what we’ve gotten.

When you’re so used to something taking that long, it’s natural to view it with suspicion… but here’s a simpler example. Let’s talk about NFL football for a minute… a typical NFL game takes a little over three hours to play. The game clock, though… it’s only an hour… 4 quarters of 15 minutes each. But here’s the thing… inside that one timed hour, the actual time the ball spends moving is… eleven minutes. But… there’s the time between plays, where the clock keeps moving… but the ball is sitting at the line of scrimmage, waiting. There are official replays. There are challenge flags. There are timeouts. There are clock stoppages. There are two-minute warnings. There are commercial breaks. There’s halftime. If you were to compress a typical NFL game by removing all of that, you could watch the entire thing in less than 15 minutes. Do you miss anything of value by doing so, if all you’re really interested in seeing is actual football being played?

Similarly, as it turns out, once you remove the bureaucratic delays from the vaccine-development timeline, all you’re left with is the science, and the procedures that drive it. And an end-product that’s as trustable as one that would otherwise have taken years.

After reading all that, you still might be thinking, “Yeah, but still…” and that’s ok. At some point, it’ll reach your comfort level… but for what it’s worth, if nobody wants to go first – sign me up. Having a clear understanding of how this all came about, I would have zero hesitation. If volunteers are needed for the front of the line, I’m there.

November 17, 2020

Back at the start of the pandemic, when things were growing frighteningly out of control, there were a lot of charts and diagrams being published about the present and future potential “Time to Double”. When you’re dealing with exponential growth, the steeper the curve, the quicker the numbers double from where they are today. For a while, things got frantic. Then they got flat. Now they’re not so flat anymore, but certainly not as steep as they were back then. Which is perhaps why there’s less panic about these ever-increasing numbers.

But maybe there should be a bit more concern than what’s actually being seen. It’s harder to move bigger numbers. But that’s because they’re already big, and we’re not just dealing with relative numbers here. We’re dealing with absolutes.

If you look at B.C, it’s pretty consistent over the last week… a 3% growth of cases on a daily basis. That translates to a TTD of about 25 days… meaning, at the rate things are increasing, we will go from 23,500 cases to 47,000 by Dec. 12th. We’d be hitting 100,000 by early January. The demand on hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators will scale up proportionally as well. Today’s hospitalization and ICU numbers are the highest ever in this province. What’s also the highest, by a lot, is the 11 deaths over the last 24 hours.

I’m growing uneasy at the nonchalance that’s out there, potentially starting at the top. I’ll be honest, if I were in charge, commanding traffic, there would be some stiff measures being thrown into place. I’m clear on the reasons being given as to why that’s not happening; that the majority of transmission is taking place in private homes, by the nonchalant crowd who simply won’t listen to reason. And while that’s going on, restaurants and many other businesses are all open, because they have all the safety measures in place.

That’s all fine in theory, but for some reason I keep hearing about people catching this; people who are taking all the safety measures they can, and they simply get it, and they have no idea when or where or why. So yes, I would be heavy-handed and I would take a lot of flak for it and some businesses might fail, especially those who count on the holiday season to see them through the much leaner rest-of-the-year. But I would mitigate this with some intelligent guesswork with respect to what the future has to offer. Nobody likes to make announcements they can’t live up to, so we get ‘safe’ guesses. On the flipside, never underestimate the human potential when our backs are against the wall.

I have a bet with a friend that I think I’m going to cash, made back in March – me saying there will be a vaccine by the end of the calendar year; perhaps not one readily available, but the one we’ll all eventually get by the time they manufacture enough. But the public, not just test-subjects, will be getting jabbed with it by Dec 31st. And it’s looking likely that might happen.

We’ve all heard vaccines typically take 3 to 5 years. We’ve all heard this one will be super-rushed to get it down to 12 to 18 months. Here we are, 9 months into it… with a very real possibility that this particular finish line has already been hit. Way to go, humans.

Which brings me back to the point… a very viable finish line on the horizon, with a time period of “now till then” which is shorter than what we suffered through the first time. We’re hearing summer. We’re hearing by this time next year. And I’m saying it’ll be sooner than that… because it won’t be a magic switch. This will be like trying to get a car going, starting in 6th gear. You have to let that clutch out super-slowly, and you might damage it, but if you do it right, you won’t stall the car and eventually you’ll be up to speed. It’s a painful process to get there, but at some point, you realize your foot is completely off the clutch… and you’re driving normally. Similarly, as things slowly re-open for real, one day you’ll realize it’s back pretty-much back to normal.

When we locked this province down back in the spring, there were outcries of “overkill” and “our economy” and all that. But it worked. With a big, vast unknown future in front of us, we bought into it, we did it, and it worked.

I think it’s time to take that deep breath, suck it up, and do it all again… this time, with that finish line well in sight. Call me Captain Overkill – I don’t mind. I know a bit about risk/reward, and I’m not known for not taking risks… but that means carefully thinking about it and picking your spots. And this one, to me, is a no brainer. Everyone go home for a few weeks, close schools early, suffer through a very weird holiday season… and then things, sooner than later, will be better. A lot better. I promise.

Follow & Discuss on Facebook

November 6, 2020

To follow-up briefly on yesterday’s poker analogy… we’re at the point where Joe Biden went all-in, and Donald Trump, hesitatingly, called… so Joe flipped over his cards; what’s colloquially known as “the nuts” — the unbeatable hand, because there’s nothing left to deal that can change anything. Trump is drawing dead, and can only helplessly watch the hand play out.

Normally, a player in Trump’s position would realize he’s beaten, flip over his cards, and watch the chips get dragged over to the other side of the table. But, of course, Trump is trying to bluff an unbluffable hand. Perhaps at some point, his fans cheering him from behind will be able to convince him to just face the fact that he lost, and move on. But it’s doubtful. Many of them continue to cheer him on blindly.

Notwithstanding that this may end up being a bigger victory for Biden than was originally thought a few days ago, there are a lot of posts from people wondering how it’s possible that a misogynist racist narcissist whose policies have further divided a country the desperately needs unity – not to mention his abhorrent handling and messaging of this pandemic – could have received so many votes? There are many takes on it, but it boils down this…

First of all, some simple math… rough numbers, some 144 million people voted. Of those, there is an unshakable core of Republicans who’ll vote that way no matter who the candidate. How big is that core? It depends how you measure it. Here’s a rough breakdown of Trump voters:

American Preservationists (20%)
Staunch Conservatives (31%)
Anti-elites (19%)
Free Marketers (25%)
Disengaged (5%)

Within that breakdown, there are probably 40% who won’t be swayed, no matter what. And 40% of 144 million is around 57 million… so really, perhaps it’s only 13 million who “really” voted for Trump… and the vast majority of those are white men, and it must be noted that the urban voter turnout is what probably made the difference. The People Of Colour… Blacks, Latinos, Indigenous peoples… they showed up. In person, waiting hours to vote… or mailing it in… however they did it, they showed up. It’s no surprise that even in many Republican states, the big cities are hubs of blue votes.

On the flipside, the rural areas, many of them populated by people with very different priorities… Immigration, jobs, terrorism, the economy, national debt. Who cares if the leader is a jerk? These are the things that matter to me, end of story. My house and my job and my gun… mean more to me than whatever is going on elsewhere. Any by the way, for many people who’ve never left their own state, let alone country… “elsewhere” is everywhere else that’s not within driving distance. They couldn’t care less what’s going on in Portland or Kenosha.

While Biden got more votes than any presidential candidate ever, in second place is Donald Trump. His seventy million votes is what Obama got in 2008 when he crushed (365 to 173) John McCain. It should be noted that four years ago, when Trump beat Hilary, it was 304 to 227. And this was viewed as a huge victory, a demographic shift, a fundamental realignment, etc. It’s looking like Biden will wind up with almost identical numbers. So while it’s not a Blue Wave many hoped for, let’s not discount the inherent statement being made: No more Trump – spoken quite loudly.

The voting system may need a bit of thought, but there are no easy answers. It’s hard to fix it when there’s no agreement with respect to what’s broken. One thing about the electoral college system is that without it, given how fractured the country is, you might not see a Republican president elected again for a very long time. Biden is ahead by 4 million votes, but Hilary was ahead by 3 million and lost. In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote by half a million and lost. In 1960, JFK crushed Richard Nixon 303-219… but won the popular vote by a ridiculously small margin, like 100,000 votes.

The sad truth is as that the chasm gets wider, like the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, the popular vote gap between Democrats and Republicans will widen… and that will, at least for the foreseeable future, be reflected in the left-leaning popular vote. Biden has his work cut out for him; he’s inheriting a mess on every level. I hope he, and the excellent people with whom I hope he surrounds himself, are up to the task.

A final, unrelated note… when I started writing these daily thoughts 235 days ago, it was supposed to be exclusively a daily update of C19 numbers and perhaps a paragraph with respect to where things are. It started to turn political when my daily research of what was going on south of here went from surprise, to incredulity, to anger, and all of it directly pointed at Donald Trump.

With him on his way out, and hoping Biden and his administration start taking things seriously, the daily bashing of American politics will be far less frequent. We have more important things to worry about. Here in B.C., almost 600 new cases in the last 24 hours… and I unfortunately know one of those people. Also, more than 600 in Alberta. And in Ontario and Quebec, more than 1,000 each.

The U.S. has its stuff to fix… they quietly reached 10,000,000 cases while all of this has been going on… but here, north of the turmoil, we have ours.

HK COVID-19 Daily Report - Graph for Nov 6, 2020

Follow & Discuss on Facebook

November 5, 2020

We often hear that it’s all about the journey, not necessarily the destination. But there are definitely situations where that’s not the case. For example, in poker, I might have the best starting hand… let’s say a pair of Kings. And you have a pair of Queens. Excellent; I manage to get all my money into the pot, and sit back patiently waiting to collect all of your money. I am a 4-1 favourite. I will win this hand 80% of time.

But then… the flop of three cards contains a Queen. What? Why me, always me, just one time… jeez… agh… then turn card is dealt and it doesn’t help me, and now I’m standing up and packing up my stuff, getting ready to leave… and then… King on the river. Boom. I sit down. You go home.

Quite a rollercoaster ride, but… I had the better starting hand, and I had the best hand at the end. What happened in between, who cares. The journey was irrelevant. It’s all about the destination.

And the U.S. election… before it, Biden was heavily favoured to win. As it stands now, it looks like he will, though nowhere near as powerfully as some imagined.

One day, elections… and, specifically, vote counting… will enter the 21st century with the technology available to make it completely trusted by everyone and, more importantly, instantly tabulated. At 7:00:01pm PDT, the electoral map of the United States will light up, reds and blues dutifully coloured in, and a declaration will be made with respect to who was just elected president. That is the indented destination, and it would sure change the journey, and everything that comes with it.

As I write this, the journey continues. The destination has yet to be reached. Biden is presently ahead by almost 4 million in the popular vote, 73M to 69M. On that magical journey to 270 electoral votes, it’s presently 253 Biden / 214 Trump. What’s interesting is that given the trends of what’s left to be counted, this could easily wind up above 300 for Biden. I’m imagining a very plausible 306/232 win.

I say all this because if that turns out to be the case, it’s more of a statement than first appeared. It’s not so squeaky close after all. But this agonizing and stressful journey (for both sides) could have been avoided, and should be in the future.

Depending how you look at it… this journey started on Tuesdsay, or maybe this journey started 4 years ago. Either way, we’re hopefully approaching the end of the line. The turbulent flight. The bumpy train ride. The endless stop-and-go rush-hour commute that should take 15 minutes but takes 90. Enough already. Let me out of here.

COVID-19 Daily Report November 5, 2020

Follow & Discuss on Facebook

October 23, 2020

Last night’s debate was a lot more sane than anyone might have imagined. Kudos to the moderator, who did a far better job than anyone else has in previous debates.

Donald Trump, in poker terms, is down to the felt… the meager chips he has left were waiting for an opportunity to go all-in, and that’s what he attempted last night. Unfortunately for him, the hand he flipped over wasn’t too good. How it plays out remains to be seen.

Civility aside, the debate offered more lies than usual. Biden was off on a few points, but Trump was on a whole other level. We’re used to it from Trump, but that doesn’t mean we should let it slide. I’m not one of these people who usually screams at TVs or during movies, but I did find myself yelling “That’s bullshit!” or “That’s not true!” more than a few times.

Donald Trump doesn’t quite understand how ridiculous he sounds when he blames the high case counts on the fact that they’re doing a lot of testing… too much testing…more testing than anyone in the world, he claims… which isn’t actually true. On tests-per-million-of-population, the U.S. trails behind countries like Singapore, Denmark, Israel and Britain, to name just a few.

But that’s far from the point… because the logical conclusion of that nonsensical line of thinking would be to just not test at all – and then, like magic, no more cases… problem solved! In presidential terms, Mission AccomplishedTM – but it’s just not true, no matter how hard Trump claims it to be the case. It hasn’t just rounded the corner. It’s not almost gone. Things aren’t weeks away from being back to normal.

Indeed, his “It’s not so bad” claims are a little contrary to his “I’ve saved millions of lives with my actions” statements – neither of which are even remotely true.

Yes, it’s bad – how bad is it? Since the White House took over the numbers, it’s all a bit suspect. Case counts go down, but deaths (numbers not entirely in their control) don’t go down. Let’s ignore the case counts and go right to the guts of the matter.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics… The White House is reporting 229,000 deaths due to C19. Recent numbers released by those independent parties adding up the dead have found 300,000 excess deaths up to now, the vast majority of which can only be related to C19. That’s an under-representation of 24%.

This isn’t a trivial “What if” question to be answered, but let’s make it as easy as possible: What does Canada’s C19 response look like, mapped onto the U.S. population?

The math is pretty simple. Canada has seen 260 out of every million people die of C19. The U.S. number is 691 deaths per million. And if you map that 260 onto the U.S. population, you get 86,300 deaths… instead of 300,000 (or 229,000, if you go by the strictly defined death count).

Either way, that’s a range of 143,000 to 214,000… so let’s call it somewhere in between: 178,000 Americans… that’s about how many have needlessly died up to this point, thanks to the president’s refusal to mandate masks, enforce lockdowns, and impose social distancing and responsible behaviour.

He couldn’t bring himself last night to admit he’s wrong, and why would he? It’d be admitting he’s been wrong for a very long time. Easier to blame everyone else. And for those who still feel they’ll be voting for Trump, I think it’s now the same sort of thing; if you admit you’re wrong now, there’s some version of you that needs to admit you’ve been wrong all along… and hey, perhaps you’ve never felt you’re wrong and never will. No worries; nobody is trying (or able) to change your mind.

But there are a lot of those undecideds out there trying to make heads or tails of it all… and it looks like this election may come down to what they ultimately decide. If nothing else, perhaps it’s best to go with the guy who lies less. A lot less.

October 23, 2020

Follow and Discuss on Facebook

October 20, 2020

So, I did something today I haven’t done in years… I voted. It was as seamless and easy as I thought, and as I promised recently. In and out in five minutes.

Watching these two elections is like watching the same sport, but in two totally different leagues. Like, there’s FIFA – and their World Cup, every four years… and the whole planet stops and watches soccer for a couple of months. FIFA… with its controversies and corruption and racist scandals. And, as usual, every four years, there’s a U.S. presidential election… and the entire world is watching… and it’s also full of corruption and racism and controversy.

Then, there’s the B.C. Soccer Association. I’m far more familiar with that one, having participated in it as a kid… and, of course, also living within the jurisdiction. And every once in a while, B.C. has an election, and nobody outside of our provincial borders cares. The rest of the country pretty-much couldn’t care less. And it’s all relatively peaceful and harmonious, just like playing soccer around here used to be… with the exception of an elbow to the head once in a while.

FIFA and the BCSA have a couple of things in common… one, they’re both soccer, though at significantly different skill levels. And two, they were both founded around the same time – ages ago, in fact… in 1904.

The two elections have exactly one thing in common; they’re electing people into leadership roles. And that’s where the similarities end.

At the local community center, no armed militia. No 10-hour lineup. Nobody intimidating me. Nobody setting the ballot box on fire.

As I said, take advantage of it. We are living within a framework of peace and freedom that’s rare; history implies us to be in a bit of a bubble around here, and while it lasts (hopefully for centuries, but, as we can see… things can fall apart pretty quickly)… let’s take advantage of it. Set an example… for yourself, for your kids… and in honour of those who went through a lot to make sure we’d have this right… and vote.

October 20, 2020 Graph

Follow and Discuss on Facebook

October 16, 2020

This is pretty long… not only because I couldn’t make it any shorter without leaving out something I consider important, but because I have a busy weekend ahead and might not get a chance to post much. No new local numbers till Monday anyway, so here’s most of the weekend’s updates in one convenient place… and we’ll start on the opposite end of the country.

About 25km off-shore from Newfoundland, you’ll find a collection of 8 little islands. They’re not very big. Collectively, they’re about 1/10th the size of Metro Vancouver. They’re known by the name of the two biggest islands, St. Pierre and Miquelon. Not relevant, but in case you’re curious… their population of 6,000 has had 16 cases of C19, 12 of which have fully recovered and 4 of which are still ongoing.

That entire population lives on those two islands, where they do a lot of fishing and play a lot of hockey. No big deal, except if you’ve never heard of them, you’ll be quite surprised to learn that they’re not part of Canada. Even though they’re closer to Newfoundland than Vancouver Island is to the mainland, they’re 100% French. Not like Québec French. Like French French.

How they got to that point is a long and interesting story… Indigenous people, Portuguese, Spanish, French, English, American, Canadian… all have laid claim to the islands at some point over the centuries… but, as it often goes with land grabs/invasions/conquests, whoever had it last… gets to keep it.

And that was France, who, despite opposition from Canada, Britain and the U.S., seized the islands during WWII… seized by that troublemaker Charles de Gaulle… the same one whose “Vive le Québec libre” 20 years later started a shitstorm that will never go away.

But since then, these little independent French islands have been happily doing their thing, and for the most part have a very close and functional relationship with their Canadian neighbours. A little border dispute or fishing-rights argument pops up occasionally, but it’s never a big deal. It always gets worked out.

Have you ever wondered what would happen if Trudeau suddenly went nuts and invaded those islands? It would be a very weird situation for us, but also for our allies, especially the U.S. and the U.K…. both of which are always on our side, but both of which also completely (and justifiably) would respect the sovereignty of France.

Interestingly, there’s a comparable example.

On April 2nd, 1982, General Leopoldo Galtieri, the leader of Argentina (and last of their military dictators) invaded the Falkland Islands.

Lots of similarities… Search-and-Replace: Trudeau becomes Galtieri, Canada becomes Argentina. France becomes England. St.P & M. become the Falkland Islands, which have been under British Rule since 1833. Interestingly, the U.S. becomes Chile; we’ll get to that.

A brief history of Argentina… leading up to Galtieri, there had been a few other military dictators, the first of which had overthrown the democratic government of Isabel Perón… widow of Juan Perón – whose second wife was the famous Evita (Madonna… “Don’t Cry For Me Argentina…”). Those military dictators slowly eroded the country into a compete mess of economic crisis and civil unrest and violence against those who opposed them. Galtieri, who was disliked by the people more and more as each day went by, decided he needed to show everyone who’s boss, how he was a powerful leader, how he’s got things well-under control. A conquest of those islands… and he’d be a national hero forever.

So… he invaded the Falkland Islands, claiming them “back” for Argentina. As an interesting side-note, similar to how when the Democrats say Zig, the Republicans will say Zag, or pretty-much anywhere where you have strong, opposing political parties ready to criticize anything… when Margaret Thatcher’s right-wing government instantly protested the invasion and began arming the response, the left-wing opposition party in England was a bit torn… between their ideology of being against war… coupled with their distaste for Margaret Thatcher… as opposed to simple patriotism. They stammered incoherently for a few days, going back and forth.

You know, when your country gets invaded, you defend yourself… political ideologies aside. If you don’t like war, it means you don’t throw the first punch. But if punches are going to fly, be sure you’re prepared to throw the last one. Anyway, that led to that memorable headline, “British Left Waffles on Falklands.”

Long story short, Galtieri led his country into a disastrous, unwinnable war by invading those islands… a war which cost the lives of hundreds of young Argentinian men, barely trained and barely armed. It took the British a few days to show up, but they showed up angry and ready to take back what was theirs. And take it back they did. They also suffered some losses, but not as bad as the Argentinians. Understandably, everyone on the planet disagreed with the Argentinian position, including their neighbour Chile… who allied themselves with Britain and cooperated fully, allowing their airports and military bases to be used as staging and refueling areas. Chile turned out to be an integral part of helping the Brits end the invasion quickly. The strange parallel would be the U.S. aligning themselves with France, helping them take back the islands from Canada. I wonder how many minutes that war would last.

From a personal point of view, the whole Falklands thing was strange – it was the first time I had a completely relatable view of a big conflict… very clearly from both, opposing sides.

On one hand, I was in grade 8, at a very British school, where many of the teachers were British themselves. They were adamantly opposed to this ridiculous invasion, and made their views known. Everybody (including me) was in agreement. What a useless, stupid war. Hopefully, it’d be over quickly.

On the flipside, my older cousins in Chile were of the age where if they’d been in neighbouring Argentina, they and their friends might have been drafted to go and fight. I knew a lot of people down there in that age group. It would have been like the grade 12s in my school going off to fight for one side… and, on the other side, it could’ve been my cousins and their friends, or at least guys whose personas and attitudes and everything else – I could easily relate to. Happy-go-lucky Latin Americans guys… suddenly thrown into a war because their leader needed some quick wins; some better approval ratings; some better numbers. No time for debates or town-hall meetings… let’s make a real statement.

The whole ugly episode wrapped up in about 10 weeks, but there were (and still are) some ridiculously short-sighted Argentinean patriots who think it was the right move. The vast majority would disagree with that… and if there was any Argentinian positive out of all of it, it’s that it not only took down Galtieri… but it took down the whole right-wing fascist military-dictatorship infrastructure that had supported him and his predecessors. From the failed war emerged democracy. And a final footnote… in 1994, Argentina adopted a new constitution. In it, they declared the Falkland Islands an Argentine Province. Some people just can’t let it go. The official British response was, “LOL”.

What may be relatable about the whole thing is this; there was a leader who was nearing the end of his tenure… something that doesn’t necessarily happen with military dictatorships. Many of those guys hang in there for decades, because their iron-fisted rule keeps them there. As long as the country is doing ok, it works.
But when it’s all going downhill, and people are calling for your head… well, what do you expect from a military leader… fight or flight? Galtieri knew the implications of leaving power, and they all came to pass. He knew what he’d done. He knew his track record leading up that last gasp. He knew that if he had to one day face the music, it wouldn’t go well for him… and, indeed… the rest of his life was no bed of roses. Arrests, prison, disgrace, legal fights, stripped of everything.

That is what faces Donald Trump, so it should come as no surprise that he’ll do anything to prevent it… and/or at least try everything he can to punt the ball 4 years down the field. The U.S. won’t be invading anyone as a distraction anytime soon, fortunately, but what’s going on is its own version of “last gasp”… an effort that started years ago, and will hopefully end on January 20th… 2021, not 2025.

October 16, 2020

View Original Post and All Comments on Facebook

October 11, 2020

When NHL commissioner Gary Bettman stepped onto the ice a couple of weeks go to present the Tampa Bay Lightning with their hard-fought-for Stanley Cup, there was something missing. Well, there was a lot missing, not the least of which were the fans. To its credit, the NHL pulled off an excellent season, given the complexities involved. It all worked out as planned, their whole bubble-infrastructure held together, and even virtual fan experience was so well-executed, you’d forget there weren’t sold-out arenas surrounding the play. The lights, the sounds, the announcers, the crowd noises – as genuine and convincing as possible.

But what was missing were the boos. It’s a well-known tradition… Bettman steps onto the ice, and the fans boo. Loudly. Like the monkeys pulling each other back from reaching the banana, most people might not even know why they’re booing… but everyone else does it, so you do it too. And, for what it’s worth, there are plenty of reasons to boo the guy; pretty-much every team has a reason to, thought it occurs to me that Arizona might be the only exception… and further to that, Arizona might be the only place on the planet that cheers Bettman and boos Wayne Gretzky.

I’m sure the NHL and the broadcasters thought about it. I’m sure they had the recorded boos all queued up ready to play, and left it to a last-minute decision. I’m sure Bettman wouldn’t have cared; he always laughs it off. And/or knows, to a great extent, that he deserves it.

It was a missed opportunity though… just one little bit of normality that could’ve been implemented, but wasn’t… and that’s too bad. I guess the politics and implications of it outweighed the humour and fan appreciation of it… but these days, when all of us are looking for evidence that, as crazy as things are, there’s some normalcy lurking in the background… it would’ve been nice to see.

I hope the next time he’s awarding the Stanley Cup, Bettman is showered with 20,000 real-life boos. I can’t wait. It will long and loud and powerful. I’d love to experience it. And, considering what that implies, I think we'd all love it. Even Bettman himself.

View Original Post and All Comments on Facebook

October 8, 2020

A little follow-up to yesterday’s post… and the words “abject despair” that I used.

In trying to remember a time I felt something like that, what comes to mind is the first time I ever participated in Paintball. If you’re not familiar with paintball, it’s where your shoot other people will fancy weapons that fire out gumball-sized balls of paint.. so that when you hit your target, there’s no doubt you “killed” them.

It was a large outdoor course… trees, flats, hills. Both teams start at either end, perhaps 200 yards apart, in their own little fort… which houses a flag. The idea is to attack the opponent team’s fort (10 people per team), take their flag, and bring it back to your own fort.

We strategized for a few minutes, before the horn sounded to start the game, and came up with a pretty good plan… some of us would launch a blatant attack up the middle, while a couple of other stealthier and faster teammates would try to sneak around the sides and attack from behind. A few others, known to have good aim, would guard our fort and flag.

I was chosen to be one of the “up the middle” attackers… tasked with basically getting as close to the enemy fort as possible, surviving as long as I could, hopefully killing some of them, and distracting them away from the periphery.

The horn sounded, and I began sneaking my way toward the enemy. Hiding behind obstacles where I could (rocks, trees, brush), I impressed myself with how close I’d managed to get.

But just as I was about to continue my journey from behind the rock I was presently hiding behind, a paintball went whizzing by me. Shit… I’d been spotted. And for several minutes, there I was, pinned behind the rock. As soon as any part of me moved, paintballs would fly all around me.

Even though it’s a game… even though you’re not going to really die… the despair of being trapped like that really started getting to me. I’m sure my adrenalin, heartbeat and blood pressure were all off the charts.

At some point, my brain just blew a gasket. Without really understanding what I was doing, I stood up, screaming, and charged up the hill toward their fort.

Had this been a Hollywood war movie, this would’ve all been shown in slow motion… possibly black and white… powerful classical music underscoring the pyrotechnics and explosions all around me… and on me, my chest exploding from the many machine-gun bullets ripping into me, my face a grimace of despair and pain.

In reality, I was cut down by about 10 paintballs within 3 seconds… but, might I add, it was just the distraction one of our guys needed. Right after I was "killed", I saw our guy sprinting down the side, headed back to our home fort – enemy flag in hand. Too bad that in real life I would’ve been dead and not witnessed the contribution I’d made to our victory.

Anyway, the point of all that… I learned something about the human animal that day; we all have our instinct to survive, and we all have our breaking point. That was my moment of abject despair, and I hope I never feel it again. I hope none of you do… and as bad as things might get, like I said yesterday, there’s always somewhere to turn; somewhere nearby, your teammate is in the same predicament.

View Original Post and All Comments on Facebook

Go to Top