The lack of data over the weekend left a bit of a gap… which I filled in with some guesswork. I know where we were on Saturday, and I know where we are now. How we got here looks to be pretty consistent, but the next few days are more important than the last few. We are tracking very closely to the US, trailing by 10 days… just before things started getting really out of hand down there.
It’s important to note that I’m tracking new cases — not active cases. It was good news to hear that 100 cases in BC considered active have been resolved to “cured”. More than 300 in Canada overall.
As time goes on, we can look forward to that number of resolved cases growing, but note that its growth doesn’t affect tracking new cases. Those will always go up. In fact, at some point, it’s (hopefully) likely we will have “negative” days — where there are less new cases than resolved cases… but the idea of these graphs is to simply track the spread (and control) of new cases. What we do with them is a whole other question, and I’ll be happy to offer my opinion on that as time goes on. So far, comparing it to what’s going on elsewhere in the world, it’s pretty good. And will gradually look a lot better if you all just #stayhome!!
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Thanks for this Horatio!
Does this mean the actions we are taking are working?
You’re my news source vs the reporting and division in US.
The numbers are looking positive
Thanks for doing this!
I wait for these everyday.
So long as our Growth Factor remains below the official suspected Reproduction Number (R0) of between 2 and 2.5, that would suggest we’re having an impact, yes?
(Notwithstanding untested, unaccounted positives in the wild who may be asymptomatic?)
I’m really rooting for BC and Canada to get this right. Wuhan bent the curve in abourt 3 weeks.
Here in NYC they’ve started triaging ventilator patients, and we’re hurting from the absence of any sensible federal response. At least there’s heavier testing than elsewhere in the US and Governor Cuomo gets it.
Thanks for this thoughtful & thorough & measured approach, Horatio. (Watching…)
What about the effect of testing (lack thereof) in the US? Presumably when you say we’re tracking about 10 days behind the US, you are going on their reported numbers but their testing has been reportedly abysmal. It appears that in Washington state they didn’t know they had cases until they had deaths.