COVID-19

April 13, 2021

The good old “abundance of caution” is back in the news, thanks to Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine, which, like the AstraZeneca, is in the spotlight for potentially causing blood clots. Both of those are adenovirus vector vaccines, as opposed to the mRNA Pfizer/Moderna vaccines (no accusations of blood clots there), so that adds to the correlation.

Here are some numbers:

In the U.S., close to 7 million doses of J&J have been administered. There have been reports of 6 potential cases of blood clots. That’s less than a one-in-a-million chance of developing this particular complication… and one of those cases was lethal, so there’s a close to one in 7 million chance of dying from the J&J vaccine. If it’s responsible for that.

Of the 6 cases, 100% of them were young women between the ages of 18 and 48.

Here’s something else that young women ages 18 to 48 do… they take birth control pills, and they have babies. If you throw that into the mix:

We hear that 1 in 1,000 women on birth control develop blood clots. The number is actually a little lower… more like 0.3 to 0.9… as in 3 to 9 out of 10,000. Also relevant is that in the 3 months after giving birth, that number goes up to 40 to 60 out of 10,000.

I really have no idea how much of that applies to these particular women, except to note that throwing a one-in-a-million factor into it changes nothing. It’s the sort of rounding error that gets lost in the mix. Insurance companies view events beyond one-in-a-million as “impossible”, which makes them easy to insure.

Nevertheless, in this age of litigation and ass-covering and risk mitigation, the CDC and FDA slammed on the brakes until everyone dances around a bit and indemnifies themselves, and then they can get back to it.

In the meantime… as with AstraZeneca, I assume the U.S. is sitting on large shipments of unused J&J vaccine. J&J has, for the moment, halted shipments to Europe. Don’t let it go to waste! We here in Canada would welcome it with, literally, open arms.

Dr. Henry and Premier Horgan and Minister Dix continually remind us all that our infrastructure presently supports much more vaccine-delivery capacity than the supply that’s feeding it. Great! Please secure a few million unused doses of that J&J and get it up here. Perhaps don’t make it the first choice to give young women (optics), but I know a lot of old men (I’m one of them!) who’d happily, unquestionably, without hesitation and with profound gratitude accept it.

Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to happen… one, because we here in B.C. have zero leverage to be asking for anything… and two, the Americans will quickly come to their senses and realize that even if these two vaccines, J&J and AstraZeneca, actually introduce a one-in-a-million chance of a complication, the benefit is far outweighed by the risk… and the intelligent thing would be to resume vaccinations as soon as possible. As soon as the $2,250-per-hour lawyers are done with it, they’ll be back in business.

April 12, 2021

Let’s tackle another one of those “Ask me in a year” questions that popped up around last April… and this one was pretty contentious… the question of how Sweden was handling the pandemic, in harsh contrast to most of the rest of the world. Sweden’s head epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, had the same response to his critics. “Ask me next year”.

A year later, the answer can be summarized in one sentence: “What else were you expecting?”

Both Sweden and the U.K. initially tried the same approach… which was mostly a version of “Protect the elderly and vulnerable, but the rest of you can go on with your lives as normal. No masks or any of that nonsense needed.” In the U.K., that didn’t last long. They quickly course-corrected when things started getting out of hand. Back in Sweden, Tegnell felt abandoned, but held the line… and, as usual, the longer it goes, the harder it is to admit you were wrong, because then… part of it is having to admit you were wrong all along.

On that note, there are those who will still argue it wasn’t wrong. There are people who have friends and relatives that needlessly died… who’ll tell you it wasn’t wrong. I’m not here to judge people’s opinions, though one thing I’ve learned over the last year is that there are a lot of irrational people, and then more irrational the idea, the more irrationally some people will hold on to it.

Culturally, Sweden is most like its Nordic neighbours, so let’s just do a bit of and apples-to-apples comparisons:

Covid-19 deaths per million of population:
Denmark: 421
Finland: 158
Norway: 126
Sweden: 1,342

Economic impact of C19 on GDP 2020:
Denmark: -4.2%
Finland: -3.1%
Norway: -3.6%
Sweden: -4.0%

Expected GDP recovery 2021:
Denmark: +3.5%
Finland: +2.8%
Norway: +3.6%
Sweden: +3.5%

In summary, thanks to their policies, between three to ten times the number of deaths… and, as far as that being the trade-off for saving the economy? It seems to have had no impact whatsoever. And these days, in Sweden, out in public and especially on public transit… you’ll see lots of masks.

Asked and answered. Moving on.

April 11, 2021

We’ve been at this long enough that we can actually start answering some questions asked long ago… and since there are no new numbers (B.C. and all of Canada) till tomorrow, instead of guessing ahead, let’s look back at something else.

A year ago, there began a whole “This is just a bad flu” crowd… from which emerged the anti-mask/anti-vax/anti-reason crowd. You’ll recall the memes about how “The flu has killed more people than this thing” were flying around. At the time, it may have been true… early April? Sure. With a year behind us, let’s look at typical numbers and compare. And… if this were indeed “just a flu”, then this is what we’d be looking at:

Flu/pneumonia deaths Canada:
2015: 7,630
2016: 6,235
2017: 7,396
2018: 8,511
2019: 6,893
2020: 15,606

Flu deaths USA:
2015: 23,000
2016: 38,000
2017: 61,000
2018: 34,000
2019: 22,000
2020: 360,000

Tucked in there conveniently is 2018, which was indeed, by any measure, an actual bad flu season in the U.S.… enough to trigger some markings on the “excess deaths” charts of the time.

But, by the same token, 2020 would be an insane outlier… and that gives us plenty to learn from these numbers.

First of all, in Canada, with all of the mitigation that took place… lockdowns, masks, social distancing… still, it was double the deaths we’d have expected. What would’ve happened if we hadn’t taken it so seriously?

The 10x south of the border might be an indication. So instead of the 23,000 C19 deaths we presently have, we in Canada might be at 230,000… yikes.

In any event, this isn’t the flu. It never was. But if you want to pretend it is, then you have to come to terms with the numbers above and rationalize them somehow… that it’s some of super-flu that requires masks and social distancing and, ultimately, vaccines… and, even with all of that, its outcomes are still far worse.

Or maybe, you know… it’s just not the flu.

By |2021-04-11T17:03:07-07:00April 11th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , , , , |1 Comment

April 10, 2021

In old Star Trek episodes (the original series), the starship Enterprise and the crew would often find themselves in battle against some aliens whose technology was compatible with respect to being able to launch weapons at each other. Accordingly, Captain Kirk would sit on his throne on The Bridge and bark orders to Spock and Chekov… and when they were under heavy attack and the ship was in trouble, it would be something like, “Divert all power to the shields!!”

By that time, though, the poor Enterprise had been suffering volleys of alien torpedoes and lasers and whatever version of energy beam was the flavour of the week… it was springing leaks, and major systems were malfunctioning… so, quite often, Kirk was met with a response of… “Unable.”

Captain Kirk always improvised, and things always turned out well. They always managed to survive. In fact, he, Canadian icon William Shatner turned ninety a few weeks ago. That’s the actor. The actual captain won’t be born till March 22nd, 2233… a birthday celebrated every year in Vulcan, Alberta.

But there’s not much to celebrate in Alberta these days, nor here… nor anywhere in Canada… because, like Kirk vs. The Universe, we’re in an epic battle… against an alien we thought we knew, but now some variant aliens are showing up, and it’s a problem… and the ship is perhaps damaged more than we can tolerate.

To continue with the metaphor, if the Enterprise is the world, we here in Canada are presently the shields. We need more power diverted to us. But… the entire ship is under attack and everyone needs energy, and perhaps there’s nowhere to pull it from. The heroic crew member that’s in the engine room where the Warp Core is about to breach… that guy is asking for help. Send power… we need to vaccinate the anti-matter containment field. Scotty needs to vaccinate the shields. Deck 8 needs to vaccinate the hole in the hull that’s already ejected a few unfortunate red-shirts into deep space. Dr. McCoy needs more power to Sick-Bay so that he can… well, perhaps, actually vaccinate people.

When the shields were low and the Enterprise would take a direct hit, everyone would be bumped hard… left or right, for some reason… never up or down. I guess the gravity system didn’t need a lot of power to keep operating.

The next couple of months are going to feel like that… we’re going to get bumped around. And the present inability to have badly-needed energy/vaccines directed to us will be a good topic of discussion once the ship is docked at Starfleet for repairs. Once the pandemic is over.

But, for now, we just need to get there. Beam me up, Scotty… quickly, before a travel ban is imposed.

April 9, 2021

Today’s update is a lot less political and a lot more informational; I’ve replaced some graphs and added some new info.

The top two rows of graphs represent the second wave, which I defined as starting Sep 8th. The bottom two rows represent the third wave, which I defined as starting March 10th. How’d I pick those dates? Purely arbitrary, but that’s where it looks to me like when the numbers started to turn the corner.

The top row of each wave is new cases per day, as well as the famous 7-day moving average. That’s the black line, cutting through the more-jagged thinner coloured line of daily new cases. As you can see, everywhere, it’s headed in the wrong direction, more steeply in some places than others.

The second row of graphs now consolidates hospitalizations (provincial colour), ICU cases (red), and deaths (black).

Those bottom two rows are the ones to watch in the coming days and weeks… remember when we were all cheering to flatten the curve? It’s sort of like that. We need all of those lines to be slanted like they are… except downwards, not up.

Hopefully we see it start to turn that corner, but if today’s numbers across the country are any indication, we have a long way to go.

By |2021-04-09T17:05:24-07:00April 9th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , |3 Comments

April 8, 2021

A tiny glimpse of visibility with respect to how our federal government presently operates – and why we happen to find ourselves behind the 8-ball with respect to vaccines – is evident in the mandate letter sent to Anita Anand, Minister of Public Services and Procurement by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, on January 15th.

But, let’s go back a little further… actually, a lot further.

At a gala held at the National Arts Centre on April 14, 1972, when Trudeau was only a year old, visiting U.S. president Richard Nixon famously raised his glass: “I’d like to toast the future prime minister of Canada, to Justin Pierre Trudeau!”, he proclaimed. Nixon was also later caught on his White House tapes, famously deriding that three-day trip: “… wasting three days up there. That trip we needed like a hole in the head.”

Two little take-aways from that… one is that if the person presently holding the office of Prime Minister had a last name like Smith or Jones, he probably wouldn’t be PM. He has a unique last name and the genetics to go with it, and they’ve taken him right to the top. Perhaps it was assumed that what he lacked in qualifications might be made up magically, with that last name… or, with experience, having been immersed in that life as a child, right from day one.

There might be an element of truth to that; if Justin hung around daddy enough back then and asked lots of questions, he’d certainly have had a very privileged viewpoint as to how things work. The problem is that Pierre Elliot Trudeau, love or hate the guy, was a true statesman. Whether he destroyed the country or helped shape it to what it is today – let’s set that argument aside. Either way, he was a true leader… and I suspect if he were in power today, we’d have lots of vaccine at our disposal.

But that aspect of leadership is not learned; it’s a personality type that requires a level of understanding and big-picture thinking that either you have or you don’t.

Which leads to the second little take-away… that a lot of government bullshit is a complete waste of time, but it’s necessary for the optics. Nixon called it for what it was… three wasted days of fluff. A gala? Pat Nixon delivering a stuffed Snoopy to Pierre and Margaret’s little boy? All while Nixon was facing some serious problems back at home. Like, you know, a war he was losing on the other side of the world.

Back to present day, this letter, publicly available of course… and, its optics. It’s a real work of art… and reading it, the first thing that comes to mind is that whoever wrote it knew that this document was going to live forever, and therefore, every single word needs to be perfect. Every single word, well-thought-out. Nothing is missing. It mentions every political issue imaginable, many of them irrelevant to the pressing issue at hand.

Emissions reduction targets, Gender-based Analysis, intersectional lens, Indigenous people, Métis, Inuit, LGBTQ2, persons with disabilities, reconciliation, self-determination, Yes, of course they’re all important issues… but instead of 3 pages on tangential issues, all of which are affected by the pandemic, how about one sentence: “Every Canadian deserves equal access to vaccines, and your job is to get it.”

Completely lacking in that document are actual targets. Zero deliverables. That part of it is difficult to figure out, but that’s the important part of it… not just inclusive (and vague) hand-waving. If I’d had a shot at it, my letter would’ve been a lot shorter:

“Anita, please go find as much vaccine as you can, as quickly as possible. Don’t be ok with signed documents and promises unless those documents have some clout to them; we need hard numbers with respect to delivery schedules, and they should agree to severe repercussions and/or reparations if they fail to live up to their end of it. Don’t be afraid to overpay to secure that – we can afford it. Don’t hesitate to leverage whatever we may have to offer. Trees, water, electricity, whatever. Don’t be afraid to charter some planes and waste some fuel. We can handle the political fallout from dumping excess carbon emissions into the atmosphere. For now, at this moment, this is more important. Getting these vaccines quickly and reliably is all that matters. We are scaling up a national vaccine program like no one has ever seen, and we need the product to fill the pipeline. Vaccine inventory can not be allowed to be the weak link in this chain. We don’t need 10 doses per Canadian next year. We need one dose… now.”

But, no… instead, we get a nice big fluffy document with zero teeth. It, literally, looks good on paper. So does cheque for a million dollars… until you try to cash it, and it bounces.

That’s the thing; it can’t just look good. It needs to actually work. And that’s perhaps the destiny of that mandate letter. It’ll be printed off on a huge sheet of fancy parchment and signed with a big feather and framed for all posterity… so that all of the grandkids of Canadians who survived the great pandemic of 2019-2022 can one day tour the great halls of Parliament Hill and look at it. And, as they slowly walk by it, say something… like… “Huh.”

April 7, 2021

History speaks of many examples of products that were designed for a specific purpose, but were ultimately repurposed for something entirely different. For example, bubble wrap… it was originally designed to be cool, textured wallpaper. That market didn’t catch on – especially in households with little kids, I’m guessing – but the inventors, sitting on tons of unused inventory, trying to figure out what to do with it, came upon the bright idea that it’d he useful for transporting fragile goods. They contacted IBM, who they figured would be interested in having a way of safely shipping their delicate electronics, and they were right; that caught on, and we’ve all had the pleasure of popping those little things ever since… the extra bonus when anything fragile gets shipped to us.

Speaking of wallpaper, Play-Doh was originally designed as wallpaper cleaner. I’m not sure how good it is at that, having never actually needed to clean any wallpaper… but as a toy, very successful; there are very few kids who at some point haven’t gotten their grubby little paws on some.

Speaking of toys… there’s the Slinky, originally designed as a spring used on ships to stabilize devices on choppy seas. Until one day, when a slinky was accidentally knocked off a table… and it walked itself over to a guy who had a light-bulb moment; Richard James, the “inventor” of the Slinky. Even he admits he didn’t invent anything; just clued-in to an excellent alternative use for an already existing product.

Speaking of alternative uses for already existing products… toothpaste. Like, for example, white Colgate. Terrific for keeping your teeth bright and healthy, of course… but you know what else? If you have a scratched CD or DVD that’s unplayable, coating it with toothpaste to “fill in” the scratches and then rinsing off the excess… works wonders. I’ve resurrected many dead Discs in my day.

Speaking of health products that have alternative uses… Coca Cola was originally designed to be an alternative to morphine addiction, and to treat headaches and anxiety. The guy who invented it, John Pemberton, was a veteran of the civil war, and a morphine addict. He wanted a sweet, alcoholic drink with some coca leaves thrown in for good measure, so that’s what he invented: Pemberton’s French Wine Coca. Over time, the recipe was tweaked and carbonated… and the rest is history.

Speaking of ubiquitous products that began their existence as something medicinal with a specific purpose, history may end up grouping Covid-19 vaccines into the mix, because the careful research that led to their initial approvals was based on science that described their intended two-dose use, with the spacing of those doses a few weeks apart. I’m not sure those tiny vials have instructions written on them… and if they do, they’re in an unreadably-small font… but anyway, if you take your magnifying glass and read it, you’d find that we, here in Canada, are not following those simple instructions. In fact, that goes doubly-so for us here in B.C… where we are the lowest percentage of fully-vaccinated people in all of North America (!) – but, that’s by design… and I’m totally ok with it because, as we’re finding, and as I wrote about yesterday, if you shift the goalposts a bit… from “not getting sick” to “not getting seriously sick”, the product can indeed be used differently than designed… and very successfully.

Speaking of not following simple instructions… yesterday marked the 3-year anniversary of the devastating Humboldt Broncos bus crash… caused by a driver ignoring a very simple instruction: Stop. Of course, there was far more to it than that, but it’s a good example of how a seemingly tiny rule violation by a single person can have drastic, far-reaching effects… like how Alberta’s outbreak of the P.1 variant can be traced to a single out-of-province traveller. One guy who broke the rules, and here we all are.

Speaking of there being far more to it than that…

Well, there’s always far more to it than that. Enough for now. Speak to you later.

April 6, 2021

I’ve heard from a few people who’ve gotten the AstraZeneca vaccine recently that maybe they should’ve waited for Pfizer or Moderna. After all, those latter two have efficacy rates around 95%, while AZ is somewhere in the mid-60s. That’s a notable difference. Or is it?

The efficacy number basically tells you the percentage reduction in disease with respect to vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people. A 95% reduction in the test groups of P & M vs. a 65% reduction with AZ.

But what that’s really measuring is whether you get it at all. What if you get it asymptomatically? Of the 30% difference, what if all of those case are insignificantly mild?

As it turns out, there’s a better number to look at… hospitalizations and deaths. As has been quoted widely, there is a 100% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths with Pfizer and Moderna. What about AstraZeneca, and other vaccines? Here’s a list of the “Big 6”, and their percentages of preventing hospitalizations and deaths… not efficacy:

Pfizer: 100%
Moderna: 100%
Janssen (J&J): 100%
Sputnik V: 100%
NovaVax: 100%
AstraZeneca: 100%

So… ask me again, “Should I get vaccinated?” Yes, you should. “Does it matter which one I get?” No, it doesn’t. If you want to avoid serious illness, they will all do the job. And as much as we’ve heard about Pfizer and Moderna and AstraZeneca… the Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be here by the end of the month, and if I had the option to pick one, that’s the one I would go with. One single jab, and a month later… you’re as immune as you’ll ever be, with zero chance of serious illness.

I recently had a discussion with someone that hinged on the “You don’t know what’s in it” argument. Actually, you do… the ingredients are all listed publicly, for all of them. There is a popular meme going around questioning people who’ll eat junk food without knowing what’s in it, but would hesitate with a vaccine… and that’s the thing; it all ends up in your bloodstream. One way or the other, that’s where it has to go to make its way around your body. To what degree it’s been broken down or metabolized or synthesized or whatever… food, water, medicine, drugs… if it’s not getting into your bloodstream, it’s not doing much. If you’re eating McRibs, but fear getting vaccinated, you might need to rethink the logic.

There are places in the world drowning in excess vaccine, but B.C. isn’t one of them. For the moment, there is a consistent demand by everyone who wants to get it… because, so far, it’s only been 16% of us. That number will rise significantly in the near future as more doses arrive, but now we’re in a bit of a race. Ontario is facing crisis numbers and lockdowns and school closures, and we’re on that exact path unless things change, probably a month behind… and with hospitalizations and ICU cases rising sharply over the weekend, we’re into a critical week. Some say it’s not too late, some say it’s inevitable.

What’s the efficacy rate of enough people doing what we need to do to prevent this from getting out of hand? An excellent question. We’ll be finding out in the next couple of weeks.

April 5, 2021

Not a lot to report today; Happy Easter to everyone who celebrates it today. Today we simply wait.

In the short-term, we wait for tomorrow’s more detailed news, and perhaps a clarification… the press release that just went out has a typo in it, and undercounts the provincial total by 800. My numbers below are correct… I think. The medium-term, and possible new restrictions, will be dictated by what happens this coming week.

In the long-term, wouldn’t it be nice to get some really awesome vaccine news? Maybe it’s too much to hope for, but it’s the optimist in me that’s hoping and waiting for something unexpected. If 1.5 million doses of AZ can materialize out of nowhere, why not more… maybe our leaders have been on the phone over the weekend trying to figure it out. We can hope. At least the online booking system we’ve all been waiting for in Vancouver arrives tomorrow.

On a completely different sort of waiting, check out the video of the wait staff… and the owner and the patrons of the Corduroy Restaurant in Kits… all of the above chanting “Get Out!” to the health inspectors who went in there and were met with a completely maskless and somewhat aggressive crowd. Those health inspectors intelligently did a 180 and got out of there, because it was very clear nothing of value was going to be achieved. I’m pretty sure that’s former Canuck anthem singer Mark Donnelly sitting by the window… at around 0:45 of the video. The restaurant has now been shut down by the PHO.

Beautiful day for a bike ride… that’s where I was. By the way, it’s great exercise… maybe it’ll help me lose some wait.

April 4, 2021

I have seen some ridiculous finger-pointing in my life… people, yelling at each other for 15 minutes, trying to assign blame for some problem. It didn’t matter that the problem was relatively insignificant, nor that it had been resolved painlessly. No, that wasn’t important. The only truly important thing was making sure everyone knew, and agreed upon, whose fault it was.

I don’t think that way. Frankly, I consider that sort of nonsense a complete waste of time that vast majority of the time… because the vast majority of the time, either the problem has been resolved, or it’s still a problem that needs addressing… and that’s where the energy should be focused.

Forgetting whose fault it is, and what could’ve and should’ve been done better, let’s figure out where we are today, and what we need to do to get out of it.

The new variant that’s in town, the one colloquially known as the Brazilian variant, is far more concerning than people might realize. It’s highly contagious, evidently more dangerous, and it can infect people who’d previously been infected with other strains. It’s quite likely the variant that’s running through the Canucks, because some of them had already had, and cleared, previous strains of C19.

How’d it get here? I’ll leave the finger-pointing out of it. It could’ve been prevented, or at least its spread fiercely mitigated. Spring Break, Whistler, yadda yadda. In Vancouver, at this moment, there is more Brazilian variant than in the entire country of the United States. Yes, really. And it’s what led to the very sudden turn-around, and the new restrictions. You know, those restrictions that two days ago were being protested by maskless screaming crowds insisting we’re all just being controlled and that the government is trying to screw us.

I sincerely wish we *were* being controlled, because the mess we’re in might have been avoided. So, again… finger-pointing aside, what now?

Let’s simply accept that there is a group of people who don’t understand, don’t want to understand, who will insist to their dying day, even if that dying is sooner than later, in a hospital, on a ventilator… that all of this isn’t such a big deal. That person’s struggling, dying breaths still denying the seriousness of the situation should be enough to convince you that nothing would ever have changed their minds. So, what do you do?

Their ridiculous attitude and filling of restaurants and irresponsible partying and all the rest of it will go on, no matter what the PHO, police, neighbours and common sense say. Let’s accept that, and not waste more time thinking that slapping uncollectable fines on these people is the answer. Arrest the leaders and throw them in jail? Sure, but I have a better idea.

This will only go away when most of us have been vaccinated. We are way behind. Embarrassingly behind. On the whole topic of sourcing, procuring and getting vaccines into arms? There is no version of spin that justifies the mess we’re in. We are pathetically behind every other first-world nation… and embarrassingly behind our southerly neighbours who are drowning in the stuff, especially in places where, ironically, nobody wants it anymore. The number of people vaccinated in the U.S. yesterday and today adds up to more than Canada in total since day one. Many states have huge surpluses. In many places, you can just wander into a pharmacy… look at the vaccine menu of the day… “I think I’ll have the Pfizer… my wife would like the Moderna… and a couple of Johnson & Johnson’s for the kids, thanks so much.”

OK leaders… the Trudeaus and Horgans of the land; our local nuclear clock is approaching midnight. Given the lackadaisical attitude being displayed locally, unless something changes… around here, we might be a lot more screwed than we think. We need vaccines, and we need them now… and they have it. They have plenty to spare.

Justin and John… get on the phone. Call the governors of those states that are going to soon be throwing out their doses, and offer them something. We have lots of trees. We have lots of fresh water. Get us the vaccines *now*, and give them a sweet deal… set up shop on the banks of the Fraser River and take a much fresh sparking glacier-runoff water as you want for 10 years… but get us the vaccines… now.

Bonnie… I don’t know where the choke-points are with respect to getting doses into arms… but if the paragraph above were to work, what would be needed to handle it? More trained vaccinators? More syringes? More tents for more parking lots for all the pop-up vaccine clinics? I have no idea, but let’s assume we’ll need it, because let’s assume that finally, our leaders will step-up and cut through the bullshit and deliver.

J&J&B, start at the finish line of the problem and figure out how to get us there: We need vaccines, and soon. Much sooner than the present plan allows for. We are on the edge of this thing blowing up… in fact, we may well be beyond the tipping point. The timing of Spring Break last year saved us… but it may have royally screwed us this time. Now we throw Easter into the mix. Yeah, the whole “Here’s what we need to do to control case counts” thing may actually have reached beyond the tipping point… and we may already headed to overrun hospitals and ICUs. A severe and instant lockdown may prevent that, but that’s unlikely to happen.

The leaders put a lot of this responsibility on us, and for a while, we delivered. Now it seems that enough of us are tired of doing so… but that’s where true leaders course-correct. “The people didn’t listen to us!” isn’t a valid excuse for the history books. It’s up to you to mitigate that, and not participate in the finger-pointing.

Let’s not worry about whose fault it is. Just fix it.

Go to Top