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December 19, 2020

When I was in high school, we had a coach who employed a very unique form of punishment. When you screwed up, everyone had to run a lap around the field. And when I say field, it was actually four rugby fields… roughly a 600-metre jog for everyone. Well, almost everyone… you, the perpetrator, did not run. Just everyone else.

In fact, the first time that happened to me, I wanted to run too. I didn’t want everyone else even angrier at me. But no, that was the point.

“Sir, I’d like to run the lap as well.”

“No, Kemeny… you stand here with me and enjoy the consequences of your actions.”

The only thing missing was him providing some hot chocolate while I got to watch my friends and teammates being punished for my transgression. Just to really hammer home the point.

I mention this, because it’s interesting to note that collective punishment of this sort, where the said collective (friends, family, acquaintances, teammates, etc) is targeted, is a violation of the Geneva Conventions. It is literally a war crime.

If wearing the wrong jersey to rugby practice is so serious a crime that it warrants a punishment so severe that it’d require an international court to sort out, what do you do with a significant number of Republicans trying to overthrow the U.S. government?

The end-game of this election is starting to look like a horror-version of whack-a-mole… where there’s no cheap prize at the end, but that’s irrelevant… because the game never seems to end. You could argue it’s been going on for four years, but it’s certainly been going on since the election. After 46 days, those are some pretty tired arms. With still 32 days to go.

Every day, some nonsensical mole makes an appearance, and it’s swiftly whacked back into the hole by evidence, lack of evidence, a court ruling… or just plain common sense. And yet, the moles persist. The most recent mole to get whacked was Mitch McConnell, but that wasn’t enough. Now come some Republicans who literally want to overthrow democracy. Martial Law, and the whole thing.

Far beyond just cutting through the bullshit of Trump trying to pre-emptively pardon himself and his family, maybe it’s time for Joe Biden to make a much stronger statement. Number one, anyone who gets pardoned with some sort of cobbled-together Frankenpardon shouldn’t feel too safe. Those pardons will be rescinded within hours of the new administration, chopped up into little bits, just like the parts that came together to form this attempted monstrosity of legality.

And number two, anyone from this point forward trying to actively mess with the very foundation upon which American Democracy is based… will be charged. I don’t know if “attempted treason” is “a thing”, but it should be. Even if Biden gets tossed after four years, there needs to be something in place to prevent this derailing nonsense in the future… that those who instigate this sort of thing have some real consequences to face, not just running some laps in the dark, pouring rain.

But this is what the president is focusing on. This is what he’s re-Tweeting… while every single day, the new cases and deaths pile up. While some rogue nation, still not sure if it’s China or Russia, digitally broke in and stole everything. While a Covid relief bill still hasn’t wound its way through the process.

Allow me to quote Joe Biden: “C’mon, man.”

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By |2020-12-19T17:03:13-08:00December 19th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |3 Comments
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December 18, 2020

Louis Armstrong was perhaps the greatest and most innovative trumpet players of all time, so it’s a bit ironic that he’s probably best known as a vocalist, for his timeless rendition of “What a Wonderful World”. Similarly, Wayne Gretzky, perhaps the greatest and most innovative hockey player of all time… might be more remembered for something he said; something that’s been repeated about five hundred million times, in every context imaginable: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it’s been.”

To some extent, that tired, hackneyed phrase has lost all meaning, having now become so ubiquitous and diluted.

But… it has its uses. For example, if you’re Dr. Bonnie Henry, by now you have some vision as to how things work… how the pandemic works, how hospitals work within its confines and, most importantly, how the general public seems to behave.

So… if I had to criticize Dr. Henry for anything, it would be for her failing to skate to where that particular puck was going to be on Halloween. It was becoming evident that things were about to break at the seams, and more should have been done.

On October 31st, B.C. was seeing about 350 new cases a day, and about two deaths a day. Then came the parties and the crowds and the “it’s no big deal, come on man, it’s Halloween!!” excuses.

Around 10 days after the numerous private parties and the overrunning of downtown, there was a sharp rise in daily case counts; they had doubled. But deaths hadn’t gone up, so everything was fine, right?

Ten days after that, there was a sharp rise in daily deaths… to levels we haven’t yet managed to recover from.

This isn’t rocket science, and this isn’t unpredictable… because it’s the exact same pattern we’ve seen several times. Where the puck has been, and, more importantly, where it’s going, has now become glaringly obvious.

From the “this is why we can’t have nice things” point of view, Dr. Henry has imposed measures over the holidays that seem harsh. It’s unfortunate she didn’t impose them before Halloween, because there’s a chance this would be a far more normal holiday season if she had. As it is, these measures are now necessary, but probably not sufficient. Without enforcement to back them up, these orders are merely good suggestions, and many people are planning to ignore them entirely. This has always been an issue of education, and many people simply don’t get it. Accordingly, we will see the consequences of these actions in the next 6 weeks.

If I had to predict it, the sharp rise in infections will all take place starting tonight and lasting till New Year’s Eve. That will start appearing as a rise in daily new cases during the week between Christmas and NYE. The deaths resulting from those new cases will peak heading into the second week of January, but the last of those new cases won’t have “kicked in” until two weeks after NYE… which means those deaths won’t hit the books till the end of the month.

So there you have the prediction… new cases will keep rising till mid-January, and then start to tail off. Daily death numbers will start dropping off in late January. If the question is “When will all this be over..?”, I can’t tell you the end of the end, but the beginning of the end…? February. When things start improving in February, I would expect them to continue to improve to the end. Between vaccines and summer, there won’t be a third wave… just a slow and steady path to the end of this nightmare.

At the end of a long shift, Dr. Bonny just fired the puck into the corner. She’s skating to the bench to catch her breath. In the meantime, for all of us still on the ice… where should we go? To where she shot the puck from? To where the puck is now…?

I think to myself… we should skate to where the puck is going to be. And I think to myself… there’s an end to this game… hopefully soon. And also, all together now…. I think to myself… what a wonderful world…

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By |2020-12-21T02:10:40-08:00December 18th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Science of COVID-19, Sports & Gaming|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |7 Comments
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December 17, 2020

A quick thought with respect to the winding-down of what history will undoubtedly call the ugliest presidency ever… I wonder if it’s occurred to those who support Donald Trump – at least 74,000,000 Americans – that after all is said and done, no matter what you believe is broken and needs fixing… that this wasn’t the guy to do it.

Notwithstanding he didn’t keep the very election promises upon which he was originally elected (the border wall that Mexico will pay for, the healthcare plan that’s just a few weeks away, etc), suddenly there appeared this whole notion of a large, left-leaning group of overlords that’s controlling everything… well, if that’s the case (which it isn’t, but let’s say it is) – Trump has failed miserably in dealing with it. If you’re a staunch Republican who thinks these are real issues, I think you have to admit your guy failed you. You, like him, can scream fraudulent election and all that… so, ok, let’s say it was… it was a huge fix, all aimed at getting Biden elected – Trump, with his genius intellect and intuition saw through it all along; he identified countless examples of voter fraud. But then what?

In four years, he’s appointed more federal judges than any president in history… placing these people in roles with lifetime appointments – roles that had been gleefully held open by Mitch McConnell. These guys, with their frenzied zealous desire to stay in power, did everything they could… and it still wasn’t enough. With all his appointed judges, with all the vague but passionate handwaving, with all of the alleged evidence, look what he managed. Nothing. From the sounds of all that, you’d think it’d be a slam dunk. But no. Zero. What. A. Loser.

Forget for a moment what he’s broken (and there’s plenty) – in some crazy world, one could argue it was for the greater good, and you have to break eggs to make omelettes or whatever. OK, let’s entertain that for a moment… so, sure… lots got broken, yet… nothing got fixed. If there exists a Deep State (there doesn’t) that’s controlling the radical left (it isn’t), then… despite knowing all this, he couldn’t do anything about it. That deep state now sits well-entrenched, now in power, ready to take over the world. Your guy failed you miserably; more miserably than somebody caught by surprise, who didn’t see it coming. This guy saw it all coming, for four years, and was unable to do a damn thing about it. All talk. Zero action. Is this the guy you want leading you?

Setting aside the obvious fact; it’s hard to fix something that’s not broken because it doesn’t actually exist – notwithstanding it’s his main money-raising platform… but let’s forget all that crap. Let’s look at real things where Trump could’ve made a difference… things he promised.

There’s no better healthcare plan, there’s a bit of new border wall, but most of it is renovation… and Mexico didn’t pay for any of it. Hilary isn’t locked up. There’s no renegotiated Iran deal. There are lots of illegal immigrants still around. There’s no right to carry a concealed weapon in all 50 states. There’s no freeze on hiring federal employees. There is no end to birthright citizenship. There’s no automatic death penalty for cop killers. Eliminate the federal debt in 8 years? It’s higher than when he came into office. And, oh yeah, his tax returns… we’ll see those any day now, as promised.

Actually, that last one – we might, because of a court order coming next month. Between that and going to prison for contempt, he’ll probably eventually provide them. And then he’ll go to prison for what’s on them.

And yet… some staunch Republicans still stay by his side, sending him their hard-earned money, believing everything he says. Up to you, I guess… he’s going to need friends and he’s going to need money. But, between you and me… I think you could do a lot better than this Loser.

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By |2020-12-17T17:03:00-08:00December 17th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |7 Comments
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December 16, 2020

Today, we’ll take a step back from gambling advice and bashing Trump and discuss… yes, how about the pandemic…

As usual, there is good news and there is bad news.

Let’s start with the good news, and that is that around the entire planet (with one notable exception), things are getting better. That doesn’t mean things are great, but if you look at the numbers and graphs below, it’s clear things have stopped getting worse in Canada. They’re either just bad, or improving. At some point, I’ll throw together some world data for comparison, but the graphs will look similar; sharp drop-offs in the rates of new cases, which in turn should show fewer hospitalizations and eventually fewer deaths. Where they were growing quickly, they’re growing more slowly. And in some places, stopped. Entirely. New Zealand is the first country on the planet where C19 is gone. Period. Restrictions lifted. Workplaces, restaurants, sports stadiums… packed with happy, healthy people. This was the place that locked down early and hard, and almost did away with it on the first go-around… but it came back, so they took more drastic action. And this time it stuck. Brutally ironic and pathetic was Donald Trump, at that time, mocking them… “It’s over for New Zealand. Everything’s gone.” That was Trump, trying to imply something like, “See? No matter what you do, you can’t get rid of it. Why bother wrecking the economy, when it won’t make a difference?”

Trump wasn’t the only one with that attitude, but the attitude is wrong. Strong decisive action can make a big difference.

While things look to be getting no worse pretty-much everywhere, the huge exception is, of course, is the U.S… where things are getting drastically worse. The collision course between the pandemic, people who don’t care, and the vaccination… it’s a perfect storm, made more complicated by that second factor… people who still don’t believe there’s a serious virus and/or people who do but won’t get vaccinated. If all Americans were to go out and get vaccinated as quickly as possible, the entire country would be rid of the virus by summer. There will probably be enough vaccine to go around to do that. All the timelines we’ve heard rely mostly on the understood supply of Pfizer vaccine that’s on its way, but there is more good news… that we can soon throw the Moderna vaccine into the mix… and that’s more of a game changer, because it’s doesn’t need the ultra-cold transport and storage; that one can (and will) be made available far and wide.

The bad news is that the pain of this pandemic, from an economic point of view, will be very harsh. Every sector has been radically affected… and the issue now is that there are many businesses that rely on the holiday season to get them through with enough momentum to last them till next December. Many of those businesses are already running on fumes, and are really only still in business because it’s the Christmas season and they may as well scrape what they can from it before they pull the plug. Many that stuck it out this long were hoping for a relatively normal holiday season, and it’s not going to happen.

On that note restaurants are suffering terribly, especially many of which count on the Christmas office parties and the party season in general… and while that won’t happen this year, it’ll all come back eventually. Certainly by this time next year.

Until then, there’s no simple answer… though might I throw in… support your local restaurants if you want them to survive. It doesn’t mean go there with a group of friends; not yet. But order their food and pick it up, or get it delivered from them directly, so it’s not some third-party that’s getting all the margin. Buy gift certificates and stuff some stockings with them.

The economic landscape will look like a 9.0 earthquake roared through it, once this is all over. Hopefully, for most, it’ll just have been a big, rattling shake… and not a complete collapse.

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By |2020-12-16T17:03:06-08:00December 16th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |4 Comments
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December 15, 2020

A little more on yesterday’s topic… according to the Washington Post this morning, Trump has doubled-down on his dubious election claims 15 times. Two to the power of 15 equals almost 33,000. So now, he’d have to be putting down over $65,000 to try to win back his original $2 bet… if he were betting red, which I suppose, in a certain way, he is. He’s gone from loser to Loser to LOSER… the only thing that’s changing now is the point-size of the font, but like betting systems that eventually run out of money, the screen can only fit so much as well. We’re pretty-much looking at nothing more than a big capital L now… and yet, if this morning’s torrent of even more election-fraud Tweets is any indication, he’s not done yet. Even Mitch McConnell has thrown in the towel… but Trump? Nope.

If doubling down is the wrong way to bet, is there a right way? Yes… as long as you keep in mind that if you’re betting against the house, you’re going to lose in the long run… no matter what. Unlike poker or horse-racing, where you’re playing against other people, you’ll never beat the house in the long run. Not that it’s easy with poker or horses, but at least it’s possible, and there are some people good enough that they actually do it professionally. But casino games? Nobody is making a living playing slot machines, blackjack, roulette or craps… assuming it’s a “fair” game. There are ways to “game” advantages in all of those, with mechanical aids or card counting… but those change the house odds, and then it’s a whole different story. But assuming you don’t have a roulette computer jammed into your shoe, and/or assuming you’re not able to count cards without getting caught, the house has an edge, and every dollar you bet plays into that edge. If you’re going to bet $100 in Blackjack, mathematically, the soundest way to do it is bet it all at once. That way, the house only gets one shot at imposing that edge on you… not countless times to chip away.

But… it is possible to win in the short term, and it’s possible to have a lot fun doing so… so what do you do to maximize your chances? You do the opposite of doubling down.

With doubling down, all you’re doing is chasing lost money with your own money. Throwing the good after the bad. The key to winning is trying to maximize the opportunity to win while putting the house’s money at risk, not your own. This means taking the big shots with money you’ve already won; not out of your wallet. Here are two examples.

Let’s say you’re going to play roulette… and roulette is a good one because it offers a lot of (close to) 50/50 bets. Roulette has a green zero (and sometimes also double-zero, and, for the truly-clueless, triple-zero), which is where the house gets the edge, but other than that, there are 36 numbers. Half are red, half are black. Half are even, half are odd. Half are 1-18, half are 19-36. All 6 of those half-this/half-that bets are effectively coin-tosses, and return a win of a $1 for every $1 bet.

So… if you’re going to play roulette, say you’re willing to risk losing $200. Take that $200 and cut it into 10 pieces of $20 each. Each of those $20 is one shot, and you will have 10 shots.
You bet your first shot, and we will call that first bet “level one”… and you can bet any of those spots. Say you bet red… and it comes up… black. Oops. It’s ok, you’re only down $20… now, second shot, level one… you try red again, and this time it hits number 7, which is red.

Great! Now you have $40. You take that entire $40 and bet it on… let’s say, black… and this is now level two. Boom, it hits 17 black. Now you have $80. So you take all $80 and bet it on… hmm, 7 and 17 were low… so you bet it on 19-36 – (this was level three) and it hits 35, and you win!

Now you have $160. Now you are on level 4, the final level. Hmm… three odds in a row. You bet your level 4 on even, it hits 2, and now you have $320. And you take that $320 and you put it in your other pocket, and you don’t touch it for the rest of the night. And you go back to level one, with your third shot of $20. And you do that with all ten shots. Some will die right away. Some will advance a level or two. And hopefully, you manage to run a few of them through level four.

Of course, that’s not so simple… but it only takes one out of those ten shots to go the distance for you to walk away a winner. If you do this right, after 10 shots, the $200 gambling pocket will be empty… but, hopefully, the other pocket has $320 in it. Or maybe $640… or more…

The key, of course, is that you’re trying to capitalize on winning bigger amounts by risking only what you’ve won. The adrenaline rush of those level four bets is quite something… and a real sledgehammer to the gut when you lose. Just try to remember, you didn’t just lose $160 – you only lost $20.

Similarly, next time you’re at the racetrack, try this… take $5 and bet it “to show” on the horse you like. As long as the horse you like finishes in the top three, you’ll cash your ticket. It might not be much, but that’s ok, because now you take what you won, maybe $8, and bet it all to show on whatever horse you like in the next race. And if you win, you take that $17 and bet it all to show in the following race. The thrill of running a show parlay up to $400 is also quite a rush; and you’ll learn a lot about yourself when you’re now called upon to bet all of it on some horse whose only redeeming factor is that you like his name.

Gambling, in general, should be treated like an entertainment expense… so as long as you’re willing to lose every penny you’re throwing at it, as long as you have a good time, go for it – and, hopefully, some of this advice helps you win… at least in the short term.

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By |2020-12-15T17:03:51-08:00December 15th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |7 Comments
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December 14, 2020

There is a very common betting strategy called the Martingale — you can apply it to red/black on roulette, or blackjack, or any simple game with close to 50/50 odds – where, if the odds are truly 50/50 and you have infinite wealth, you will never lose. Unfortunately, the odds are never really 50/50, and nobody has infinite wealth… so, in the long run, you will actually always lose. And when you lose, it’ll be ugly.

Martingale is more commonly known as the strategy of doubling down, and here’s how it works: Say you’ve decided to bet red on roulette… so you bet 10. If you win, you’ve won 10. Now you bet another 10 and hopefully win again.

But if you lose, you bet 20. Now, when you win, you’ll not only win what you just bet, but you’ll also win back your original loss. And when you win, you can go back to betting 10.

If you lose again… well, now you have to bet 40… but, no worries, it’s 50/50 or whatever, it’s due to come in, etc. And with that bet of 40, you’ll win back everything you’ve already lost… right?

As we’ve learned, exponential growth gets ugly… in a hurry. 10/20/40/80/160/320/640… if you thought it can’t possibly come up black 7 times in a row, you’d be mistaken… it happens far more often than you think, and now you’re having to bet 1280 just to win back everything you’ve lost… and just to profit 10. Eventually you hit the casino limit. Eventually you run out of money.

So, no… doubling down doesn’t work, because there’s no finish line; because infinity is nobody’s version of a finish line. For whatever reason, people still tend to employ this strategy, and I’m not just talking about casino gambling. Today itself provided two examples.

One small example would be this morning’s Wall Street Journal editor defending the disgusting Jill-Biden-bashing piece that I wrote about yesterday. Instead of just apologizing for his appalling lack of judgement, he’s saying it’s no big deal, he’s blaming “team Biden” for the backlash and he’s accusing critics of playing the race card. He’s doubling-down on his mistake, and now he’ll appropriately face further backlash… to which the WSJ will respond with an apology, or, they’ll double-down again. There’s an ugly finish line to examples like that, depending how far they’re willing to take it. Eventually people start unsubscribing. Eventually they lose advertisers. And eventually, when they’ve shredded themselves into the ground, they meekly apologize.

Whatever the reason that prevents them from backing down… business decision, reputation concern, fragile ego… if they could simply admit when they’re wrong, that would be the end of it. But no, they double-down… and without a bottomless wallet of excuses to support their bad judgement, they eventually lose… and it’s much worse than it should have been.

Which leads us to the much bigger example of doubling-down to the point of insanity, and this one also hit the ugly end of the line today – and that is Donald Trump’s insistence that he’s won the election. Today, after numerous and continual double-downs of bullshit, he’s out of ammo with which to bet red. Now the electoral college has cast its votes, as expected, confirming Joe Biden. Now what?

I guess the equivalent would be the guy who’s been betting red on roulette all day and just watched a streak of 15 black show up. He’s out of cash, screaming and yelling that it’s not fair, and as he’s being dragged to the door by security, continues to scream he’s being robbed and denied the opportunity to win it all back.

It’s not altogether a bad analogy. The guy in both examples started with a bad premise, executed poor judgement, doubled-down on it for as long as he could… and will continue to blame, to whoever will listen, everyone else except himself for the outcome. Both deserve to be shown the door.

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By |2020-12-14T17:03:05-08:00December 14th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |8 Comments
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December 13, 2020

We get our local numbers tomorrow… so tomorrow we’ll play catch-up with the stats. Until then, you get my opinion on a column that was published in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend… where the author is offering some advice to the soon-to-be first lady. The author begins the column like this:

“Madame First Lady — Mrs. Biden — Jill — kiddo: a bit of advice on what might seem like a small but I think is not an unimportant matter. Any chance you might drop the ‘Dr.’ before your name? ‘Dr. Jill Biden’ sounds and feels a touch fraudulent, not to mention comical.”

Wow… what a condescending chauvinistic misogynistic arrogant prick. I’m neither a doctor nor a woman, but that hit home… for many reasons, but two in particular.

One is my mom, who’s a retired medical doctor… from an era where there weren’t many female doctors. When I was a little kid and people asked me if my mom worked, I’d say yes, she’s a doctor. And they’d say oh, you mean a nurse. They were surprised to hear the truth. Medical school was a steep uphill in those days, and thanks to Canada not recognizing her medical degree from Chile, she got do to it twice. She went from being a full-on licensed M.D. in a pediatric clinic in Santiago… to UBC, where she got to do it all over again with a bunch of recently-graduated kids. She most certainly earned her “Dr.”

The other example is my sister, who managed to earn her PhD while juggling an awful lot of other stuff going on in her life. It was a struggle at times, and it took longer than it might have, but she did it; she earned it, she worked exceedingly hard at it… and as much as I tease her about it sometimes when she says something stupid, she’s most certainly Dr. Kemeny.

“Kiddo”? Fraudulent? Comical? Man, just writing about it now is once again making my blood boil. What an asshole. The biggest joke of it is that the author himself is not a doctor of anything. No M.D. or PhD hanging on his wall, yet he has the audacity to voice an opinion like this? Up yours, you jerk.

Shoutout to all the doctors out there, but especially the women. Anybody’s who’s earned a degree that confers that designation upon them should wear it with pride… but maybe, especially women, just so they can be shown the respect to which they’re most certainly entitled.

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By |2023-04-02T13:55:00-07:00December 13th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites|Tags: , , , , , , |24 Comments
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December 12, 2020

Beautiful day plus no local numbers equals just a brief update… but speaking of local numbers, they were way up at the dog beach we always go to.

If you don’t have a dog, it’s possible you don’t even know there’s a gem of a beach near the airport. Just north of the airport but south of the river, you’ll find McDonald Beach… and, on a day like this, it’s spectacular… a view that’s obviously shared by many others, given the crowd size… both people and dogs. If you want to see lots of dogs having the time of their lives, running up and down the paths, the more than 1km of beach, the water (which is of course fresh, not salty… and rapidly running, so clean)… head on down.

And, might I add… if you don’t like dogs, don’t go there. Do not go there for a quiet picnic and expect to not get overrun by dogs. If you find yourself shooing dogs away, you’re probably in the wrong place. Also, if you take your dog to a beach or park or wherever, and throw him the ball, don’t be offended if 10 other dogs go chasing it… and telling other dogs, “Hey, put that down, it’s not yours!” is unlikely to help.

Notwithstanding those two oddities, it was a wonderful day. The place is full of friendly people and friendly dogs. And, fresh air and sunshine, two commodities that scarcely make an appearance together this time of year and should be taken advantage of… especially the vitamin D aspect. Enjoy it while you can. And ugh, just had a look at the weather for tomorrow and rest of the week. Quick… there’s still a few minutes of sunshine left… in 2020.

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By |2021-02-28T16:26:37-08:00December 12th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Life in Vancouver, Our Dog|Tags: , , , , , |6 Comments
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December 11, 2020

So… today I got a vaccine… a vaccine that’s around 95% effective in preventing the disease if you take two doses. But no… it’s not *that* vaccine; this one is for shingles… what I guess you would call the adult version of chickenpox.

If you’re my age, you missed the existence of the chickenpox vaccine; it showed up a little too late in our lives. As a result, there’s a 99% chance you’ve had chicken pox, whether you know it or not. Indeed, chickenpox is so contagious that the plan as a kid was to get it over with asap. When a kid got chickenpox, the parents would hold parties for all the kids to get together, play and cough on each other, get sick, get better… and that would be the end of it.

It’s not quite the end of it, because once you’ve had it, the virus sticks around in your body… forever… and whatever immunity you built up as a kid eventually wears off, and the virus can kick back into gear, this time as shingles. I’ve known a few friends who’ve gotten shingles in recent years, and, quite simply… you don’t want to get it. It’s painful as hell. I will most certainly take two jabs and a swollen bump on my arm for a day or two… to go along with the 95+% chance that I won’t get shingles.

The nurse who administered the shot was very impressed with my informed questions, such as “This won’t give me autism, will it?“ and “I heard you can get Covid from vaccines… should I be worried?”

But seriously, she was greatly amused with my, “Can you give me the Covid vaccine while I’m here?” – she’s only heard that one 500 times in the last 3 days.

The sad part of it was a discussion comparing notes… what she hears for real, and what I read online. It’s an exercise of tremendous frustration. I’d assumed the vaccine would appear, everyone but a small fraction of crazy anti-vaxxers would get it, and this would all be over. That’s unfortunately turning out to be very short-sighted. The attitudes and behaviours needed to end this once and for all are nowhere near as prevalent as they need to be.

Similar to the chickenpox party I attended as a kid, a lot of people will be throwing Covid-19 parties this holiday season… though they don’t know it yet. How many mini-superspreader events will there be? How big can they grow?

Staggering to learn from genetic fingerprinting that it was only two people at a conference in Boston in late February that led to over 300,000 cases. It depends how you look at it, but you could argue that one person gave it to 245,000 people, and another gave it to 88,000.

Well, it had to start somewhere… but that was in the past, and, pandemically speaking, a long time ago. We’re in the here-and-now… and we’ve learned a lot during this time… so let’s worry more about ending it. We know exactly what we have to do. Hopefully enough people really understand what that means.

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By |2020-12-11T17:04:15-08:00December 11th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , |11 Comments
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December 10, 2020

Today’s update is just about numbers. Every day I plug in today’s numbers and, magically, almost everything updates automatically. The only things that don’t, and it’s by design, are the Y-axes of all of the graphs below. I keep them on “manual”, because when the data bumps up against the limits, I want to be able to see it. Then I adjust it.

Good examples are both Ontario and Quebec, which have been bumping-up against 2,000 cases per day. Quebec actually exceeded it by a bit last week, but for now, I’ve left it… though it’s almost certainly just a matter of time. It’s depressing to have to change those numbers, because they tell a story… and if you were to go back to graphs of yesterday or last week or last month and beyond, you’ll see how they’ve all changed over the course of time… slowly but consistently creeping upwards.

I’m hoping to never have to adjust Alberta over 2,000. I’m hoping to never have to adjust B.C. over 1,000. The numbers were headed in those directions quite recently, but perhaps they’re tailing off. For now.

For those that look at the pictures, a couple of things to note… one is that I’ve added a 7-day moving average to the graphs indicating deaths. It makes it easier to see the trend… and, might I add, it’s not a great trend. The 35 deaths in Ontario is a record. The 28 deaths in B.C. is a record. Indeed, the national total of 126 is a record.

Number two is that I adjusted the Time To Double lines on all of the 2nd-wave graphs (bottom row). It’s really just me playing with the slopes of those TTD lines, trying to make them relevant with respect to how the data looks, especially recently. It makes it easier to see things like Manitoba, which has really managed to slam on the brakes; it was scary until recently, but perhaps their Premier’s impassioned plea really hit home… at least with enough people to have made a difference. Maybe we need more Premiers with tears in their eyes, telling us how it is.

As we’ve learned, the progression from infection to illness to hospitalization to death is around a month, if it gets that far. With vaccines starting in earnest by spring, and with the effects of the holiday season peaking around the end of January, mid-February may end up being the peak of this whole thing. That would be my guess. How high that peak goes remains to be seen… I just hope it’s not too many more keystrokes from today… to the ultimate highs of those Y-axes.

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By |2020-12-10T17:03:00-08:00December 10th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: , , , , , , , , |1 Comment
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