Israel Archives • Page 2 of 2 • kemeny.ca | Website and Blog of Horatio Kemeny

January 11, 2021

If you really want to blow your mind, try to keep up with what’s going on in the U.S. right now… it is uncharted territory in so many different aspects that it’s impossible to keep up with all of it. Not just because it changes by the hour, but because there’s just too much to process and there are too many unknowns. Whatever I write will be out of date by the time you read it, so let’s talk about something that’s not so fast-moving… like vaccine deployment.

I realize the U.S. has a lot on its mind these days, so perhaps it’s no surprise that things are lagging behind a bit. They’d planned to vaccinate 20 million people by January 1st. They’re at roughly 8 million. There are many problems with the distribution, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve got 64% of their doses sitting on shelves. Indeed, Pfizer and Moderna have done their part; they’ve distributed more than 22 million doses. That they haven’t found their way into arms is a logistical problem.

Closer to home, you might be surprised to learn that the country that has over-ordered more vaccine than anyone else is… Canada. We’ve ordered 414 million doses… and the simple math of 414 divided by 38 equals more than 10 doses for every man, woman and child in this country. Why? Good question… cover all the bases, you don’t know what’s going to work, you don’t know the timelines, you don’t know anything… let’s spread out the risk. Let’s hedge every bet we can. Such is the luxury available to wealthy nations.

Back in April, the World Health Organization realized that it was going to be the rich countries getting their hands on the vaccine first… and sought to find a way to equalize things for the impoverished nations of the world. They formed an initiative called COVAX… which hopes to secure 2 billion doses of vaccine for those nations that can’t do it on their own. Canada has pledged to provide COVAX with whatever we won’t need… though the timing of what that looks like is anyone’s guess. Will we dish some out slowly when we realize it’s all arriving at so so fast that there’s no logistical way to make use of it? There are reports in the U.S. of vaccine simply going to waste; after all of the effort, the last mile of the journey – from vial to arm… just doesn’t make it.

Like any chain, supply or mechanical, the usefulness/efficiency is measured by the weakest link. Outside of Israel, up to now, getting doses into people seems to be the choke point. As time goes on, one would hope those wrinkles get worked out… because at the pace things are at now… well, let’s do a bit more math.

Canada is presently vaccinating 40,000 people per day. It would take 950 days (two and a half years) to get to everyone. In B.C., at present, we’re averaging around 5,150 people per day. The only thing good about that number is it makes the math easy to divide into our 5.15 million people… ie, 1,000 days… 2.7 years.

It would be nice to be able to blame someone else other than ourselves when it comes to how slow it’s going… and it looks like, very soon, that’ll be the case. While recently we were only able to get around 65% of what we had into arms… we’ll be approaching 100% very soon… and from then on, injecting as fast as we can get it. Assuming that’s true, it’s encouraging for when vaccine deliveries ramp up. We’re being told March for that… where we might see a significant jump in availability. That plus the fact that not everyone will get it plus the fact not everyone needs it for herd immunity… my 2.7 years is the edge of the worst-case scenario. It can only get better, and it will. The only question is by how much.

I spoke above about the U.S. and how they’ve only managed to serve up 36% of their vaccine on hand. They’re doing around 300,000 injections a day these days, which extends out to 1,100 days… 3 years till they get to everyone. Of course, that number will go down quickly as they figure it out as well… and the fact that half the people don’t want it anyway… but, for now, they have other things to worry about. It’s hard to believe that there’s a pandemic raging down there, infecting more than 200,000 people per day and killing more than 2,000… and that’s not even remotely close to their biggest problem.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2021-01-11T17:03:01-08:00January 11th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: Science, Herd Immunity, Pandemic, Israel, Numbers, Vaccine, Coronavirus, Canada|9 Comments

January 5, 2021

There’s that old saying… “Never ASSUME, because when you ASSUME, you make an ASS of U and ME”. There’s an assumption I made a while back that’s clearly wrong… and it changes a lot of other assumptions that go along with it.

My assumption was that when a vaccine finally arrived, it’d be welcomed with open arms. You wouldn’t be able to plug it into people fast enough. Sure, there’s the fanatic “Bill Gates/5G/mind control/conspiracy” crowd, but I’d thought it’s a handful of people, similar in numbers to the tiny pockets of anti-vaxxers who cause measles outbreaks from time to time. But this was a very bad assumption, because it’s coming to light that a lot of people, for reasons that don’t make sense to me (but that’s not the issue), are choosing to not get vaccinated. These aren’t crazy people screaming and banging pots and pans in the streets. These are, for example, well-trained medical professionals. In California, something like, 20-40% of frontline workers in L.A. county have turned down the vaccine. Head inland a bit to Riverside County, and the number goes up to 50%. This is causing head-scratching confusion in what had been assumed to be a pretty straightforward process.

In some of those hospitals, those refusals were popping up so unexpectedly that the vaccines risked being wasted. Once thawed, there’s only so much time before it’s useless. Accordingly, some nurses were calling up spouses and other family members… come quick, there’s a jab here for you if you want it. This is a violation of federal guidelines, of course… but I’m all for it. That’s far better than chucking them in the garbage. And apparently, there are some so anti-vaxx, that they’ll purposefully destroy the vaccine, given the opportunity… like that hospital employee in Wisconsin who threw 57 vials of Moderna into the garbage.

The unfortunate nature of the feedback loop/echo chamber of social media is that if you were at some point questioning the new vaccine (not from a conspiracy theory point of view, but a legitimate concern… you just wanted to know more about it), after clicking a few things and then perhaps clicking on a few more questionable ones, you suddenly plunged yourself into the “question everything” camp. Accordingly, all you get now is story after story that make you skeptical of the vaccine. Is it safe, does it actually work, is it really necessary… and so on. Once you’ve thrown yourself into that rabbit hole, it can be hard to emerge.

I wrote something a while back, just before the vaccines became publicly available… here’s a link to it:

If you or someone you know is questioning the vaccine from the “there’s no way they could come up with something so safe and effective so quickly” point of view, it’s worth a read.

The flipside to all of this is how many people *do* want the vaccine but can’t get their hands on it, due to inefficient deployment plans. I’m going to give it some time before criticizing everyone; it’s early in the game and the kinks are being worked out, but jeez, it’s not like there wasn’t a lot of time to plan ahead. Perhaps the ultra-low temperature requirements threw a big wrench into it… but everyone is way behind.

Well, almost everyone. One place where the overlap of organization and forward-thinking and technology and urgency came together impressively is Israel, who, on a per-capita basis, are one or two orders of magnitude ahead of everyone else when it comes to vaccinating their population…

U.S. 1.52%
Canada 0.42%
Israel 15.14%

Wow. Instead of complaining it can’t be done, it’s worth looking at how they’re doing it. The notification/registration/reservation system was in place. The innovation to be able to transport the ultra-cold vaccine to remote areas was in place. Volunteers were in place. When the word went out to go online and book an appointment, there was a huge rush…but the website didn’t crash. People signed up, showed up and got vaccinated in 15 minutes.

And… a touching note; for those who showed up, they were given gifts to take away… of kids books and games. What an odd thing to be giving away, especially since it wasn’t little kids who are being vaccinated. That comes later… these injections were mostly front-line workers and the elderly. And that was exactly the point; here you go, respected elder – take your vaccination, and also take some books and games for your grandkids… because, we know… you haven’t hugged them in almost a year, and when you show up to do so, no need to show up empty-handed.

Israel has 9 million people and 150 vaccine clinics around the country and roving vaccine vans. It obviously helps that Israel is a small country (it’s about the size of Vancouver Island)… but they’ve so far managed to administer 1.4 million doses. For comparison, Ontario has 14.5 million people and 19 vaccine clinics. They’ve managed less than 60,000 doses so far. B.C. has a population of 5.1 million and has administered 28,000 doses.

Like I said, it’s early in the game… but these assumptions… that everyone would want it when it gets here, that it’d be easy to get once it’s here, that the infrastructure to deliver it would be in place… were all just plain wrong. As per the opening paragraph… Never ASSUME… but just in case, here are a few more:

– I assume vaccine distribution will become more streamlined and efficient as time goes on

– I assume people will see that those getting the vaccine aren’t growing a third arm, and that it’s safe, and they’ll go get their shot

– I assume we all want to go back to normal as quickly as possible and will do our part to make that happen

I assume I’ll be right about at least some of that.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2021-01-05T17:03:27-08:00January 5th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: Israel, Vaccine, Game, Canada, Numbers, Ontario, Coronavirus, Science, BC, Pandemic, Vancouver|7 Comments

October 23, 2020

Last night’s debate was a lot more sane than anyone might have imagined. Kudos to the moderator, who did a far better job than anyone else has in previous debates.

Donald Trump, in poker terms, is down to the felt… the meager chips he has left were waiting for an opportunity to go all-in, and that’s what he attempted last night. Unfortunately for him, the hand he flipped over wasn’t too good. How it plays out remains to be seen.

Civility aside, the debate offered more lies than usual. Biden was off on a few points, but Trump was on a whole other level. We’re used to it from Trump, but that doesn’t mean we should let it slide. I’m not one of these people who usually screams at TVs or during movies, but I did find myself yelling “That’s bullshit!” or “That’s not true!” more than a few times.

Donald Trump doesn’t quite understand how ridiculous he sounds when he blames the high case counts on the fact that they’re doing a lot of testing… too much testing…more testing than anyone in the world, he claims… which isn’t actually true. On tests-per-million-of-population, the U.S. trails behind countries like Singapore, Denmark, Israel and Britain, to name just a few.

But that’s far from the point… because the logical conclusion of that nonsensical line of thinking would be to just not test at all – and then, like magic, no more cases… problem solved! In presidential terms, Mission AccomplishedTM – but it’s just not true, no matter how hard Trump claims it to be the case. It hasn’t just rounded the corner. It’s not almost gone. Things aren’t weeks away from being back to normal.

Indeed, his “It’s not so bad” claims are a little contrary to his “I’ve saved millions of lives with my actions” statements – neither of which are even remotely true.

Yes, it’s bad – how bad is it? Since the White House took over the numbers, it’s all a bit suspect. Case counts go down, but deaths (numbers not entirely in their control) don’t go down. Let’s ignore the case counts and go right to the guts of the matter.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics… The White House is reporting 229,000 deaths due to C19. Recent numbers released by those independent parties adding up the dead have found 300,000 excess deaths up to now, the vast majority of which can only be related to C19. That’s an under-representation of 24%.

This isn’t a trivial “What if” question to be answered, but let’s make it as easy as possible: What does Canada’s C19 response look like, mapped onto the U.S. population?

The math is pretty simple. Canada has seen 260 out of every million people die of C19. The U.S. number is 691 deaths per million. And if you map that 260 onto the U.S. population, you get 86,300 deaths… instead of 300,000 (or 229,000, if you go by the strictly defined death count).

Either way, that’s a range of 143,000 to 214,000… so let’s call it somewhere in between: 178,000 Americans… that’s about how many have needlessly died up to this point, thanks to the president’s refusal to mandate masks, enforce lockdowns, and impose social distancing and responsible behaviour.

He couldn’t bring himself last night to admit he’s wrong, and why would he? It’d be admitting he’s been wrong for a very long time. Easier to blame everyone else. And for those who still feel they’ll be voting for Trump, I think it’s now the same sort of thing; if you admit you’re wrong now, there’s some version of you that needs to admit you’ve been wrong all along… and hey, perhaps you’ve never felt you’re wrong and never will. No worries; nobody is trying (or able) to change your mind.

But there are a lot of those undecideds out there trying to make heads or tails of it all… and it looks like this election may come down to what they ultimately decide. If nothing else, perhaps it’s best to go with the guy who lies less. A lot less.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-23T17:19:50-07:00October 23rd, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19, Sports & Gaming|Tags: United Kingdom, Vote, Canada, Democracy, United States, Poker, Denmark, Debates 2020, Singapore, Israel, COVID-19 Testing|0 Comments

September 14, 2020

There we lots of red ballcaps, American flags, Trump signs, anti-lockdown signs… even a little girl, with a multi-colored sign that said, “Forcing me to wear a mask is child abuse.” It was loud, abrasive… and depending how you look at it, truly frightening, for many reasons. No masks, of course. No social distancing.

But this time, no guns to be seen… wait, how is that possible? There are always some yahoos wandering around with semi-automatic weapons, just to show that their freedom entitles them to do so. Why not this time?

Because this didn’t take place anywhere in the U.S… this was right here at home, yesterday afternoon, outside the Vancouver Art Gallery, at around 3pm. Five hours later, the New Westminster pier was in flames, and much of the historic dock has been destroyed. Eight hours after that, some asshole (once again) cut the cable of the Sea to Sky Gondola, sending the cars crashing to the ground. And all of this going on the midst of an apocalyptic haze, enveloping everything.

We’ve seen better days.

And… we could potentially see even worse ones. Because, you know, I haven’t even mentioned the pandemic yet… but I’m about to, with exhibit A: Israel.

Israel is a country at the forefront of innovative technology, with many tools at its disposal to battle C19, and they’ve done a valiant and impressive effort. Through lockdowns and contact tracing and masks and social distancing, they were a poster child of stamping out and controlling this thing. And then there was a collective sigh of relief, and many things went back to normal and they lived happily ever after.

Or did they.

No… at the end of this week begins their new year. It also begins a mandatory and heavily-enforced three-week lockdown…. because, as per the tipping point I’ve talked about, they hit it… and now it’s a quick descent. At the time of this writing, at least one hospital is turning away C19 patients… because they’re beyond full.

Some quick numbers: after a frightening March and a swiftly-responded-to April, they were down to less than 20 cases a day. Today, they had 4,700… and that’s a country with a population of 9,200,000. Extrapolating the population, it’d be like us here in Canada having 20,000 new cases today (we had 817). It’d be like the U.S. having 170,000.

This is what happens when you ease up. This is what happens when you say it’s no big deal.

Even to the most ardent deniers of this thing, I sincerely hope you don’t get it. As has become very evident… if you catch this bug, its effects may well be with you forever. It may not take your life, but it can significantly affect it. With a common cold or flu, once you fight it off, it’s gone. Covid-19, not necessarily. Given all of that, what possible logical argument can you possibly make against masks and social distancing and being responsible? Seriously.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:04-07:00September 14th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Life in Vancouver, Sports & Gaming, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: American, Pandemic, Country, COVID-19, Vancouver, Hope, Canada, Israel, Population, Common Cold, Masks, Trump, Cars, Numbers|10 Comments

July 26, 2020

Sounding a bit like a broken record, but no B.C. numbers today, so it’s just a guess to go with yesterday’s guess… I’ll fix it all tomorrow, and I’m more than a bit curious to see what it’ll look like. Until recently, Mondays were just “more of the same”… a different sort of broken record… but we will see if the troubling new trend has continued over the weekend.

In fact, I just got back from a bike ride, some of which was on the seawall… all the way from Kits beach, around Science World, and to the edge of Stanley Park. As you might expect, very crowded. As you may not be too surprised to learn, not many masks. Not a lot of social distancing. Yeah, I know… I’m yet-again sounding like a broken record.

At least – Vitamin D. We can all agree on that. Yet another study has emerged, this one from Israel, heaping praise on the benefits of Vitamin D. It will statistically significantly avoid you getting C19 and/or at least make it an easier ride if you do get it. There is correlation between serious cases and Vitamin D deficiency.

On a day like this, if you’re from around here, there is zero excuse. Go outside for 10 or 20 minutes and soak it in… and.. heh, yeah, one more broken record you’ve heard all your life, but it’s a good one: Use sunscreen if you’re going to be in direct sunlight for more than a little bit. The idea is to soak in the sunshine to the point of healing and energizing… not to the point of sunburn.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:10:35-07:00July 26th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver|Tags: British Columbia, Idea, Israel, Masks, COVID-19, Cars, Stanley Park, Numbers, Science, Fact|7 Comments