Masks

April 26, 2021

I play around a lot with my 3D printer… it’s here, beside me, in my home office, and the little series of sounds it makes while operating is good background noise; it’s not distracting… on the contrary, it helps me focus. And, at the end of it, you end up with some interesting (and sometimes useful) object. I have an endless list of things I and the kids have designed and printed… and I’m fascinated with the technology. This printer is already three years old, and there have been upgrades to it… many of which I’ve printed myself. How’s that for innovation – instead of sending you a part, they just send you a 3d blueprint – then you print the thing yourself. So cool.

That being said, it’s still an evolving technology. Some of these prints take several hours… and sometimes, halfway through them, just when you think it’s all going well, one little thing goes wrong and the entire thing is ruined. We’re all familiar with that concept these days.

I’m looking forward, as the technology progresses, to being able to print things with better consistency, and with more and more detail… and with a greater variety of materials. This one only does plastic, but this is the same technology that’s printing metal. And food. And houses. And human organs… one day.

Soon, these things will be printing with the finest detail possible… atom by atom. What would I print with that?

The first thing I would print is the tiniest violin imaginable… suitable for playing the sympathetic music due to the likes of the soon-to-be-former owner of the Corduroy restaurant on Cornwall, Rebecca Matthews… and Alaska Republican state Senator Lora Reinbold.

These two have misunderstood something, and they’re beginning to pay the price for it. What they don’t understand is that nobody gives a crap about them, and long after the issues of the day have become non-issues, they will be left holding the bag for the misguided messages they were propagating.

After Rebecca Matthews loses her business license, liquor license and whatever court case the City of Vancouver throws at her, she’ll be wondering where all of her supporters have gone. Where are the people that were chanting “Get out!” to provincial health officials when she was illegally operating her restaurant? Where is the crowd that was chanting outside her restaurant yesterday, reminding everyone that social distancing and masks and vaccines are all useless? Where’s Mark Donnelly?

Restaurants in Vancouver are a fickle business. 70% of restaurants fail in the first year. 90% are gone by year 3. Where’d everyone go? To the next one… the new one… the latest and greatest. That’s where all those people will have gone, and her GoFundMe will be puzzlingly disappointing. But that’s what you get for being the voice of unreason.

Similarly, Senator Reinbold is one of these freedom-fighting anti-maskers who doesn’t want to wear a mask in an airport or on a plane. Accordingly, Alaska Airlines has banned her indefinitely… a significant issue when Alaska Airlines is the only airline that services her hometown of Juneau. As a result, what would have been a routine one-hour flight getting home for her turned into a 14-hour road-and-ferry adventure. And, for the foreseeable future, she’s somewhat stuck if she needs to get anywhere in a hurry. Now she’s whining about the monopoly of air transport to/from Juneau… an issue that, of course, was non-existent a few days ago. I actually hope she resolves that “issue”…. so that United and American and Delta and JetBlue and Southwest… can also all ban her.

One thing that’ll never be 3D printed is intelligence, and the ability to think big-picture. And that’s too bad… because, as per above, there are at least two people who’d benefit greatly from it.

April 24, 2021

The last time I wrote about India, it was to congratulate them on how well a country with some pretty awful conditions for large parts of its population was managing to keep things so well under control. It is actually possible to keep people in less-then-ideal situations safer than you think, and there’s no better example then our own Downtown East Side… which has pretty much reached what’s being called “significant herd immunity” thanks to the persistent effort of getting all of the at-risk and homeless population vaccinated… even resorting to bribing them with $5 gift-cards to do so. Whatever it takes. It’s the least Covid-infested part of town.

But whatever squalor you imagine on the DTES, it pales in comparison to vast areas of India… which is why it was so impressive that they were keeping things under control. Masks, social distancing, etc. So much for that.

I’ll resume the usual graphs tomorrow, but for today, here is a view of what’s going on over there.

The graph on the left is daily new cases counts since mid-March, with Canada and the U.S. thrown in for comparison.

That’s an insane graph to look at, but raw numbers aren’t necessarily fair when you’re comparing vastly different population sizes… so, the graph on the right normalizes it for every one million of population.

When you look at the graph on the left, you see the sheer numbers and how quickly they’re growing. But the graph on the right tells the real story; a month ago, they were doing well; better than us, and better than the U.S… as far as new cases go. Both countries have been bouncing around an average of ~200 new cases per million population for a while now, but India was down at less than 50 about a month ago… but now, as you can see from the graph, there’s no bounce in their step… it’s straight up.

That is textbook exponential growth, and I really have no idea what they’re doing over there to try to mitigate it… but if you were wondering what happens when you don’t do enough – or when you allow things to derail — there’s your answer.

April 18, 2021

I will update the data and graphs when I get home… but, for the moment… I am out enjoying the sunshine.

On that note…I’m not a huge fan of seeing my words being twisted into something I didn’t say… so I guess I’ll take another brief moment on yet another gorgeous day to yet again clarify something I’ve been saying for the better part of a year. Here it is again:

First of all, something I’ve been saying and dealing with and venting about seems to be this unbelievably incredibly annoying way of trying to discuss things with people who refuse to see anything other than in terms of right/wrong, black/white, “with us or against us”. I’ve written endlessly about having to explain things to certain people over and over again, because the minute one little thing doesn’t agree with what they think, everything else must be wrong.

This is not how the world works.

Let’s break this down into tiny little digestible bits so that there’s zero confusion about what I’m trying to say.

I am certainly not advocating staying inside, locked up in a tiny room with no windows, watching your mental health and that of your family deteriorate into a puddle of despair. It’s beautiful and sunny. Blue skies and fresh air. Go outside and soak in the vitamin D. It’s what I’m doing right now. It’s good for you. Wear sunscreen if you’re going to be out there a long time.

It seems, however, and this is the part that a lot of people don’t seem to want to understand… that then going down to the beach and sitting without masks in close proximity with hundreds of other strangers singing and partying about freedom and kumbaya… is not even remotely close to finding a quiet spot, just you and your group of up to 10, far away from others, not risking propagating infection from your bubble to someone else’s.

Some people want to hear just enough to suit their narrative, and that’s it.

“So yes, go outside and…”

Weeee!!! PARTY!!!! WooHoo!!!!

“No, that’s not what anyone said.”

“You said we could go outside and so we do and now you’re saying we can’t and freedom and you’re a liar and freedom and who needs masks and vaccines are bullshit and freedom and Mark Donnelly and freedom and f!@# masks and vaccines don’t work anyway and what about that restaurant on Cornwall and freedom and masks prevent oxygen and that gym in Kelowna and freedom and it’s a hoax and freedom and big brother and social distancing is bullshit and it’s just a flu and freedom and…”

Yeah, you know what, I keep getting accused of propagating a narrative that’s trying to limit your freedoms. This comes mostly from a group of people who don’t have much clarity with respect to what freedom actually is because they’ve never faced a reality where actual freedom has been at stake.

Being told to act responsibly is not an infringement of your freedoms. It’s simply part of you being a cooperative part of society so that everyone, including you, can benefit from the effects of the greater good that all of us have the power to bestow.

Most people know what that means. Some are incapable of understanding. And some… simply don’t care.

By |2021-04-18T17:05:38-07:00April 18th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , , , |9 Comments

April 17, 2021

Gosh darn, what a beautiful day… what am I doing sitting in front of a computer typing this out, when I could be at Kits beach partying it up with 10,000 other people?

Sarcasm aside, I was down there on my bike yesterday, and it was pretty packed. I can only imagine what it looks like today. This grand collision course of “Who gives a crap” vs. vaccinations… will find its resolution in the not-too-distant future. The equally loud “they’re not doing enough!” vs. “they’re doing too much!” is something policy makers must get used to over time. Since nobody will ever be happy, if you have two equally unhappy groups, that’s about as good as it’s going to get.

So, those are the two big dogs in the fight, which can be summarized as “Follow the rules” and “Don’t follow the rules”. We’ve all seen the dogs fight, but you never see the bones themselves get involved; they just get tossed around and hope not to get destroyed by one side or the other. So, that’s most of us, whether we like it or not… the 5,000,000 little bones in a dogfight that has a month or two left before it becomes evident who’s coming out on top. But like I said yesterday, it might not be a case of winning… just a case of not losing.

With two sides and vastly different prevailing attitudes, that’s what you get… two sides that keep drifting further apart as the finish line gets closer.

In fact, speaking of bones… here’s what one might call a good bone-headed example… there’s martial arts gym in Kelowna that’s refusing to allow masks. Not a question of masks being optional, which, in a gym, is bad enough… but no… if you want to wear a mask, you’re not welcome.

Oh, but that’s not all. If you’re vaccinated, you’re not welcome at all. Yes, you read that correctly – if you have been vaccinated, you are not allowed in. But if you haven’t been, and agree to not wear a mask, come right in.

I can’t even bring myself to comment on that. It just loudly speaks for a voice that’s out there, and is surprisingly loud. I’m just hoping that voice belongs to the dog that ends up whimpering away.

On that note, time to go enjoy more sunshine and take the dog for a walk. Just not down to the beach.

By |2021-04-17T17:03:01-07:00April 17th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , , |7 Comments

April 16, 2021

Perhaps the biggest misconception I had with all of this is evident in the thoughts I was posting around this time last year… basically, “We’re all in this together and we’ll get through it together if we all stick together and do what we need to do, together.”

Haha… how ridiculously naïve.

This thing will end one day, but it certainly won’t be like I pictured it. No VE Day with people dancing in the streets and randomly hugging and kissing each other. No… just a lot of disparate groups, all of them grumbling about something different.

We will never hear the end from the naysayers… the anti-vaxx, anti-mask crowd. The ridiculously short-sighted people who want to question everything, as if that’s the right way to critically think. Question everything. Doctors, politicians, specialists, scientists… all of them are wrong. It’s difficult to piece together logical arguments where you can make it all fit together, because most of those people don’t agree with each other to begin with… but people try… and that’s where you get the real wing-nut opinions. They will grumble about it forever.

The crowd that’s been doing the right thing from day one… and finds themselves exactly where we were last year, if not a little worse… waiting for their vaccine, being careful, and watching reckless behaviour all around them. Their grumbling is more quiet, but evident.

The crowd that’s been vaccinated and now feels invincible and is screaming to open things up. What’s the delay? What’s the problem? I’m willing to take the risk! Let me in! Very loud grumbling.

The crowd that, for actual health reasons, can’t be vaccinated and is counting on herd immunity to keep them safe “in the wild”, now realizing that it may take years… or if it’ll ever even happen. They’re more quiet, but justifiably pissed off.

The heroes of the equation; not just the scientists who developed the vaccines, nor the countless researchers who, over decades, contributed placing pieces to the puzzle that was finally solved. Them too, but I mean the front-line workers who, for a year, have been putting themselves at risk to benefit the greater good; everyone mentioned in this paragraph has faced backlash from those in the paragraphs above; they could’ve done it better, sooner… or, shouldn’t have done it at all. Many are feeling underappreciated… and grumbling about it

The politicians, the leaders, elected or not… who certainly didn’t choose this, and who’ve been making the best decisions they can, faced with difficult choices that are bound to upset someone. Love them or hate them, let’s all appreciate that they’re in no-win situations. For every person that considers Dr. Henry a reluctant-but-capable hero, there’s someone issuing death threats. At some point, all of them have made a specific decision that someone found completely wrong. People grumble at that. The politicians grumble behind closed doors.

I guess there are two ways to finish a marathon. We’re all familiar with the guy who’s never run one, trains his heart out, struggles… but makes it, and falls into the arms of his wife and kids at the finish line, tears of joy for all of them at the accomplishment. Yeah, that’s great, we’ve all seen that movie.

But there’s also the guy who trained really hard, as he does every year, trying to beat his personal best… he almost broke 4 hours that one year, and this time he knows he can do it. He pours his heart into it, but struggles nonetheless… and barely breaks 5 hours. He crosses the finish line, pissed off and upset, scoffs at the flowers and “Way to go dad!!” sign that his family is holding up.

“Let’s just get the hell out of here”, he says to them as he shepherds them into the car. To hell with this, he thinks. To hell with all of it and everyone involved.

I might sound like I’m grumbling myself… but I think that’s pretty much going to be it.

April 14, 2021

About as close to hell on earth as one could ever imagine was Auschwitz. A final destination for countless innocent people, murdered for no reason other than their religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation or mental capacity. Most people know that part of it… but here’s something perhaps you didn’t know…

Most of the people arriving there didn’t know the fate that awaited them; they thought they were being resettled, and this was just a temporary stop. That’s what they were told. And they were told they could bring with them up to 100lbs of personal belongings.

As you might imagine, if you had to move on to a whole new life and could take only 100lbs of stuff with you, what would it be? Jewellery, watches, furs… your best clothes. Tools, medications, things for kids. Tinned food for the journey, alcohol… as many things of value as you could within the allowable limit.

Many of those people were murdered within hours of their arrival. What happened to all that stuff?

It wound up in an increasingly-growing and well-organized storage complex which ultimately occupied more than 30 buildings and “employed” more than 2,000 prisoners to sort through the stuff. For the prisoners who managed to get this work detail, it was the dream job. While they were tasked with organizing the goods for distribution for use in not only the camp, but all of Germany, they also would secretly procure what they could for themselves and their friends and family.

And what was it called, this large storage facility… this place of abundance and food and opportunity, smack in the middle of hell? It was called Kanada. Indeed, for all of these people caught in hell, the Kanada warehouses were named after this abstract distant place where nobody had ever been, but they could only dream… of freedom and abundance and wealth and opportunity. One of the very few who escaped Auschwitz (and wrote the report that blew the whistle on the whole operation) was Rudy Vrba, who made his way to Canada. To Vancouver, in fact, where he wound up at UBC, a professor of pharmacology.

We here in Canda take for granted what all of those people only dreamed of. This ever-lasting abundance of wealth and opportunity… but, more fundamentally, food and drinkable water… the latter of which literally falls from the sky. Sometimes endlessly.

Which is why it’s weird for us when all of this stuff we take for granted isn’t readily available. What do you mean you’re out of toilet paper? What, you don’t have a single bottle of hand sanitizer back there somewhere? How can you be out of masks? Many of those questions from last year have been replaced with a single one: Where’s my vaccine?

It’s odd for us here in Canada to be feeling that mindset. For many people, their entire life is a struggle to procure those basic necessities… but never here. And what makes it more odd is seeing the rest of the world having access to something we want, and being unable to get it.

The “out” we have here is that we know it’s coming; just be a bit patient… and that’s certainly the way it’s always been in Canada. Not so much in Kanada… which is why, while I grumble when I read the news that forty-nine percent of Republican men don’t want the vaccine or that forty percent of the U.S. military were offered it and refused it… well, that really sucks. But we’re in Canada, so… eventually, it’ll be ok. We have the privilege of hanging in there a little longer, not something everyone, presently of historically, has had. So we’ll take it.

April 12, 2021

Let’s tackle another one of those “Ask me in a year” questions that popped up around last April… and this one was pretty contentious… the question of how Sweden was handling the pandemic, in harsh contrast to most of the rest of the world. Sweden’s head epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, had the same response to his critics. “Ask me next year”.

A year later, the answer can be summarized in one sentence: “What else were you expecting?”

Both Sweden and the U.K. initially tried the same approach… which was mostly a version of “Protect the elderly and vulnerable, but the rest of you can go on with your lives as normal. No masks or any of that nonsense needed.” In the U.K., that didn’t last long. They quickly course-corrected when things started getting out of hand. Back in Sweden, Tegnell felt abandoned, but held the line… and, as usual, the longer it goes, the harder it is to admit you were wrong, because then… part of it is having to admit you were wrong all along.

On that note, there are those who will still argue it wasn’t wrong. There are people who have friends and relatives that needlessly died… who’ll tell you it wasn’t wrong. I’m not here to judge people’s opinions, though one thing I’ve learned over the last year is that there are a lot of irrational people, and then more irrational the idea, the more irrationally some people will hold on to it.

Culturally, Sweden is most like its Nordic neighbours, so let’s just do a bit of and apples-to-apples comparisons:

Covid-19 deaths per million of population:
Denmark: 421
Finland: 158
Norway: 126
Sweden: 1,342

Economic impact of C19 on GDP 2020:
Denmark: -4.2%
Finland: -3.1%
Norway: -3.6%
Sweden: -4.0%

Expected GDP recovery 2021:
Denmark: +3.5%
Finland: +2.8%
Norway: +3.6%
Sweden: +3.5%

In summary, thanks to their policies, between three to ten times the number of deaths… and, as far as that being the trade-off for saving the economy? It seems to have had no impact whatsoever. And these days, in Sweden, out in public and especially on public transit… you’ll see lots of masks.

Asked and answered. Moving on.

April 11, 2021

We’ve been at this long enough that we can actually start answering some questions asked long ago… and since there are no new numbers (B.C. and all of Canada) till tomorrow, instead of guessing ahead, let’s look back at something else.

A year ago, there began a whole “This is just a bad flu” crowd… from which emerged the anti-mask/anti-vax/anti-reason crowd. You’ll recall the memes about how “The flu has killed more people than this thing” were flying around. At the time, it may have been true… early April? Sure. With a year behind us, let’s look at typical numbers and compare. And… if this were indeed “just a flu”, then this is what we’d be looking at:

Flu/pneumonia deaths Canada:
2015: 7,630
2016: 6,235
2017: 7,396
2018: 8,511
2019: 6,893
2020: 15,606

Flu deaths USA:
2015: 23,000
2016: 38,000
2017: 61,000
2018: 34,000
2019: 22,000
2020: 360,000

Tucked in there conveniently is 2018, which was indeed, by any measure, an actual bad flu season in the U.S.… enough to trigger some markings on the “excess deaths” charts of the time.

But, by the same token, 2020 would be an insane outlier… and that gives us plenty to learn from these numbers.

First of all, in Canada, with all of the mitigation that took place… lockdowns, masks, social distancing… still, it was double the deaths we’d have expected. What would’ve happened if we hadn’t taken it so seriously?

The 10x south of the border might be an indication. So instead of the 23,000 C19 deaths we presently have, we in Canada might be at 230,000… yikes.

In any event, this isn’t the flu. It never was. But if you want to pretend it is, then you have to come to terms with the numbers above and rationalize them somehow… that it’s some of super-flu that requires masks and social distancing and, ultimately, vaccines… and, even with all of that, its outcomes are still far worse.

Or maybe, you know… it’s just not the flu.

By |2021-04-11T17:03:07-07:00April 11th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , , , , |1 Comment

April 3, 2021

“It’s always darkest before dawn”… one of those sentences that’s used in the context of “As bad as things seem, they’ll always get better.”

Pragmatically, it’s not really true… for numerous reasons. At the most superficial level, we live in a world of artificial light… and if you’ve ever been out in the street at dawn, right at the moment the streetlights switch off, you may have noticed that the little bit of sun doesn’t actually make up for all the acetylene or halogen or neon or argon or sodium vapour or whatever lighting that just disappeared. And even if you’re out in the middle of nowhere, there are stars and the moon, which themselves can be bright and offer light… and whose brightness fades when the sun begins to emerge. I guess if it’s pitch black and then that first photon of sunlight appears over the eastern horizon, this would hold true… but there are too many other variables.

If you assume the end of this pandemic is sunrise, we’re in more darkness today than we might have thought a month ago. It’s hard to plan for the sunrise if you don’t know where you are, nor what time of the year it is. The darkness-to-full-sunshine in Costa Rica in July (around 20 minutes) is a different experience than being in northern Finland in late December. Dress warm; you’ll be waiting a long time.

Waiting for the end of this pandemic is like that… but where, geographically, we change locations every day. And date. And, just for fun, the earth slows down and speeds up without telling anyone.

Variants, transmission events, uneven vaccine rollouts, anti-vaxxers, politics… these are all independent variables in a formula that’s unsolvable because there are other variables too, and we don’t even know what they are.

In the meantime, locally, it’s gotten a bit darker. Numbers are up. The majority of people getting sick are younger… and that now includes the majority of our Vancouver Canucks. These guys are among the healthiest people around, yet some of them are concerningly ill and receiving IV treatment. And, in the midst of these concerning new variables, a protest was organized yesterday at 2pm at City Hall… small business owners protesting the recent 3-week restrictions.

I certainly understand their frustration. They want the sun to rise too, but it’s elusive. The rules seem arbitrary… and seem to change overnight. How can anyone plan for anything?

I have no problem with business owners protesting/advocating for what they perceive to be their best interests.

I have a huge effing problem, however, in seeing that the vast majority of those protestors, all standing close to each other, yelling and chanting and whatever else… were not wearing masks. It boggles the mind, and I would hope the irony is not lost on them. “If only there were a way to open up sooner”, they masklessly commiserate with each other. “If only people realized that restaurants aren’t the problem”, they masklessly voice loudly into each other’s faces.

More than 1,000 new cases each of the last two days. And as the news will be reporting tomorrow, Canada has just gone over 1,000,000 cases.

In the meantime, the long night rolls on… and the horizon, distant as it is, has yet to start spilling over some much-needed sunshine.

April 2, 2021

The last time I wished I were a year or two older than I was… was a long time ago… back when I was 18, and had just gotten booted out of one of those charity casinos that Great Canadian used to operate out of the Sandman Inn on Howe.

I’m a few years away from 55, but I know a lot of people who fall into that 55-65 range, and I’ve been hearing from many of them. Half of them tell me they just got the AstraZeneca vaccine, and the other half ask me if I think it’s ok to get the AstraZeneca vaccine. My response to all of them is the same: “Hell yeah!!”

This story keeps evolving because every day there’s a little bit more to throw into the mix of information, misinformation, speculation and fact.

There’s a chance the AZ vaccine causes no blood clotting whatsoever. There’s a chance it does, in astonishingly low numbers. Those numbers are less low when other risk factors are thrown in… low platelet counts, already-present clotting disorders, being on birth control, and being young. Indeed, if there’s any commonality between any of it, it’s that it affects younger people. Therefore, whether it’s 55 in some places or 60 in others, some restrictions have been imposed. The old “abundance of caution” thing, because it looks like the numbers might go from one in more than a million… to one in less than a million (though still in the hundreds of thousands).

The most recent UK data counted 30 clots (linked with low platelet counts), including 7 deaths… out of 18 million people vaccinated. That’s a mortality rate of 0.000039%. One in 2.57 million. And that’s if you attribute the vaccine to those blood-clotting events, which is not a given. In any event, for the sake of this example, let’s pretend the AZ caused all of them, as small (or large, depending how you look at it) as those numbers are. Numbers like that are sometimes hard to visualize, so here’s a simple example.

Get a plastic cup. Fill it with 21 coins of your choosing… pennies, quarters, Loonies, whatever… it doesn’t matter, any mix will do, as long as you know what all the heads and tails looks like. Hold your hand over it and give it a good shake. Now fling all the coins out of there… watch them bounce all over the place. Now go look at the coins. As soon as you find two that are different, you’re good. This one is heads, this one is tails… and that’s it. You’re safe. It would take all of them to land identically to approach the risk of dying from the AstraZeneca vaccine, and that data included those who may be of higher risk. Take out younger women on birth control with low platelet counts… and anybody who’s had clotting issues… and you can add a few more coins into the mix.

Your chances of dying from the AZ vaccine are far less than dying on your way to get it, whether by driving or biking or even walking. Not bad, but it’s a risk… so, what’s the benefit?

By many orders of magnitude, you’re now two weeks away from never having to worry about Covid-19 again. Yes, you’ll still have to wear a mask till the rest of us catch up. You might get a little sick, with symptoms no worse than a common cold. Indeed, the next time you have the sniffles, it might be C19. You might not even know, and even better, you might not even care. You’ll worry about it in the future about as much as you worry about catching a seasonal cold.

Sounds good to me; I can’t wait to join you. And happy I can do so in a couple of months… not years.

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