Numbers

April 10, 2023

A few days ago, I opened up Facebook and was met with one of those questions that’s asked of thousands of people, usually a somewhat ambiguous one that’s sure to cause differing opinions.

In this case, it was a simple math question: What is…

48 / 8(14-8) ?

The answer is 1, and if you got that (or don’t care), skip the next paragraph. If you got 36 and are wondering why you’re wrong, read on…

The issue is that 8(14-8) is not the same thing as 8 x (14-8). It just so happens that what’s inside the brackets simplifies quickly to a 6, so if you think that latter expression is correct, then you wind up with 48 / 8 x 6 which, indeed, as per BODMAS or PEDMAS or whatever acronym you learned, is 36. But you can’t do that. The expression of 8(14-8) written out with variables looks like this: N(Y-X) which you can convert, using distribution, to NY – NX… so, you either wind up with 8(6) which is 48, or you wind up with 8×14 – 8×8 which is 112-64 which is, again, 48… which is the right answer, and then 48 / 48 is, of course, 1. You can’t just solve for what’s in the brackets (6) and then go left-to-right, 48 / 8 x 6… which does equal 36, but is simply wrong.

Anyway, I saw this equation, typed in “1” along with a small explanation, and moved on.

Wow… wrong move. Not since the days of the height of the pandemic, where I was writing daily, either explaining the benefits of fresh air, masks and vaccines and/or bashing Trump – that I received such a response of negativity. In some cases, I expanded my answer, with well-versed, simple examples and explanations. Only to be met with “You’re wrong” or, even better, “Your an idiot.”

Sticks and stones, etc… I’ve been involved with internet “discussions” for over 30 years, and I’ve heard far worse. But there’s a difference these days.

Back then, people engaged in “Flame Wars”. A flame war is exactly what it sounds like… two differing opinions starting off with relatively civil discourse, but eventually it starts heating up and eventually the flame-throwers come out. There are two sides, represented by an ever-growing number of people whose passion and anger is also ever-growing. The responses get more terse, and instead of taking days, they take hours… and, eventually, it’s one-word insults going back and forth, measured in minutes. At that point, eventually, the whole thing flames out when everyone realizes it’s pointless. One additional aspect of it… a flame war can come to an instant end when Godwin’s Law is invoked, which is simply that, as soon as you bring nazis into the discussion, whichever side did it – loses. You wouldn’t think a discussion arguing what’s better, the old Star Trek or the new Star Trek, would invoke that… but you’d be surprised.

But these days, you don’t seem to get good old-fashioned flame wars. It seems to cut to the chase immediately.

Question… “You know, I wonder… now that it’s there, why not leave the bike lane in Stanley Park?”

Answer… “You’re a f@!#’n idiot!” or “You’re letting the nazis in City Hall rule us!”

Hmm.

We’re in this day and age of instant gratification, where the dopamine hits, which years ago took some effort to generate, now are measured in seconds. The zombie-like scrolling of Instagram stories and TikTok posts are geared exactly to keep you engaged just long enough to go on to the next one. Once you’re in that loop, it can be hard to get out of it, and I’ve found myself caught up in it many times… someone sends you something, it’s amusing, it scrolls to something similar and almost as amusing, and then you look at a few more and now the algorithm knows you well enough to keep you engaged, clip after clip, the dopamine slowly dripping its way into your brain. There’s rarely anything of value there; it’s stimulus/response, and it works. And frankly, a few minutes of that vs. the few minutes it takes to eat a hot-fudge sundae… which is also stimulus/response… at least one doesn’t cause you to gain weight and/or spike your sugar levels.

But that’s also what a lot of internet “conversation” seems to have devolved to… it’s not a question of learning anything new or discussing a differing opinion… it’s more like “here’s what I have to say, who cares if it’s meaningless – take it!!”, and then instantly moving on to the next target upon whom to impose opinion and abuse. It’s not like this is trolling – another fun activity that’s been around for ages – where you post something that you know will inflame the masses. Sticking to the theme, go to a Calgary Flames forum and post a question like, “Hey guys, honestly, how come the Canucks are so much better than you…?” – and you’ll see what happens: the “two-for-one special” trolling flambé.

I guess I’m old-school… I get my online dopamine trickle from actual discussion, especially when my more-often-than-not humble opinion makes its way into someone’s brain and gives them an “aha!” moment. But that’s becoming more and more rare, because it seems people would rather snipe and move along, than stick around for something more profound. People claiming to have multiple degrees in math and physics, high-school math teachers, accountants, etc… all calling me names, and without any counter-example as to why I may be wrong. Nope… I’m just an idiot. And I’m not sure what’s worse – like if these people are think they know what they’re talking about, or not. Not sure what to make of a math teacher telling me I’m wrong, and he should know – he’s been teaching it this way for almost 30 years. Yikes. Expert indeed.

But while we’re here, let’s talk about two actual experts and what they had to say.

Last week, those two voices that had us hanging on every word three years ago… announced it’s over. Minister Adrian Dix and Dr. Bonnie Henry, in front of a much smaller gaggle of reporters than what they’d been facing on a daily basis for almost two years, announced the lifting of the final pair of restrictions – those that had to do with visitor restrictions in long-term care, assisted living and other healthcare facilities. If you happened to blink at the wrong moment, you likely missed the announcement.

So that’s it… and for those who love numerology, especially the 11:11 crowd, get this… if the initial state of emergency was announced March 19th and enacted March 20th of 2020… and the April 6th 2023 lifting of the final restrictions was decided-upon the previous day before the announcement, the length of this pandemic in this province was… 1,111 days.

Yes, indeed … that first C19 state of emergency, a temporary measure initially expected to last two weeks, haha… and by the way, did you know income tax was also a temporary measure enacted in WW2? And those ugly power-line towers down the middle-median of Boundary Rd. as you head north towards the water/wilderness? Also temporary, haha!!

The pandemic may be over, and I may never write about it again (we can only hope!), but while I’m here referencing the past… and the pandemic, and getting roasted by flamethrowers from all over America, I can’t just not mention Donald Trump.

I took a lot of heat over the last few years for what I said about Trump, so here’s a little more.

I said a while back, and I’ve said it many times… once the dominos start falling, they will keep going. There are a lot directions for the Trump dominos to fall, and New York State became the first to flick the initial domino, where 30 quickly fell. The state of Georgia is next in line, and those indictments will soon see the light of day. Then what? Who knows… but one thing is clear: After all this time (and it certainly seems to have taken a lot more time than one would’ve thought), you can expect that every single one of those initial 30 charges has been scrutinized down to the atomic level. Same with the Georgia prosecutors, and same with the ongoing Mar-a-Lago investigation. Plenty more to fall, and now that it’s begun, there will be plenty to topple.

But what’s clear is that they’re only going to go in legal directions where they’re sure they can stick the landing. Al Capone was as well-known mobster – racketeer, smuggler and murderer… but it was tax-evasion that finally took him down. Somewhere in the Trump dossier there is at least one tiny piece of incontrovertible evidence of wrong-doing. At a superficial level, there’s plenty… but these guys need it to be perfect down to tiniest of details, and I’m curious to see what it’ll be, but one thing is for sure… when it’s revealed, I’ll write about it…

…and then I will get roasted… flamed, in a glorious fashion. But what can I say… thanks to AI and the picture it generated (see attached), I’m ready!

By |2023-04-10T17:32:20-07:00April 10th, 2023|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Movies, Music & Entertainment|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |11 Comments
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March 17, 2023

I’d be remiss if I didn’t post a little something today; today is the 3-year anniversary of the first of what turned out to be close to 500 pandemic-related posts. And look, I even posted it right at 5pm, just like the good old days… and included the very first graph and accompanying data table.

It’s an interesting Catch-22… were it not for Covid, I’d obviously never have started writing about it. But not only that; I wouldn’t have had the time to do so. It was isolation and social distancing and cancelled meetings and Zoom that led to a nice pocket of free time every day to do some writing.

With Covid effectively over, at least what all of us would consider to have been “The Pandemic”, I’m back to not having anywhere near as much time as I did from 2020 to 2022. It shouldn’t take a relatively-catastrophic pandemic to be the driving force for being able to find time for myself, but this was continually on my mind today as I hopped from Zoom to Teams to Zoom to Teams to Zoom, meeting after meeting. WTF am I doing. I want to write something, and I’m actually not going to have time. How things have changed.

Well… maybe let’s put that change to good use. It’s taken me 5 minutes to write what you’ve just read up to here… what if AI could do the rest? What if I told some AI to write about this St. Patrick’s Day, bending the curve, three weeks to do so, following South Korea’s example, not following Italy’s, and speculating about an eventual vaccine. Hey, AI, take everything I knew (or thought I knew) on St. Patrick’s Day three years ago and write an essay.

So I did that… and here, between the lines, is what it spat out:

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Title: Three-Year Anniversary of My First COVID-19 Blog Post: A Reflection on St. Patrick’s Day and the Unpredictable Journey

Introduction

As the world celebrates St. Patrick’s Day, the luck of the Irish and the joy of the festivities, I am reminded of a different milestone. Today marks the three-year anniversary of my first blog post about COVID-19. It’s hard to believe that it has been that long since we were first introduced to the virus that brought the world to a standstill. This anniversary will always hold a special place in my heart as it falls on St. Patrick’s Day, a day meant for merriment and camaraderie.

In this article, I will take a walk down memory lane, reflecting on how things looked so uncertain back then, how we tried to copy South Korea’s success, and how we prayed we wouldn’t experience what was going on in Italy. We will also revisit the race for a vaccine and the long-lasting impact of the pandemic.

A Time of Uncertainty

Three years ago, on St. Patrick’s Day, we were filled with trepidation as the gravity of the COVID-19 pandemic began to set in. It was a time of uncertainty, and we were all grappling with the reality of the situation. As the virus rapidly spread across the globe, countries implemented lockdowns and social distancing measures to slow down the transmission.

The phrase “three weeks to bend the curve” became a rallying cry as people around the world did their best to adhere to the new normal. Those three weeks turned into months, and as time went by, it became increasingly clear that the virus would not be eradicated as quickly as we had hoped.

Learning from South Korea

As the pandemic progressed, we looked towards other countries for guidance. South Korea’s success in controlling the virus was a glimmer of hope for many. Through widespread testing, contact tracing, and strict quarantine measures, South Korea was able to minimize the virus’s impact significantly.

Countries around the world tried to emulate South Korea’s approach, but varying degrees of success were observed. It became evident that each country had its unique set of circumstances and challenges that needed tailored strategies.

Italy’s Struggle

As we were trying to learn from South Korea’s success, we also feared experiencing what was happening in Italy. The country was hit hard by COVID-19, with hospitals overwhelmed and the death toll rising at an alarming rate. Images of packed intensive care units and exhausted healthcare workers haunted us as we prayed that we wouldn’t have to face the same fate.

The world came together to support Italy in its time of need, with countries sending medical supplies, financial aid, and words of encouragement. The situation in Italy served as a grim reminder of the devastating potential of the virus.

The Race for a Vaccine

In the midst of the chaos, the scientific community was hard at work trying to develop a vaccine that could put an end to the pandemic. Typically, vaccines take years to develop, but the urgency of the situation led to an unprecedented global collaboration.

The development and distribution of vaccines became a race against time, and the world held its breath as we awaited the outcome. Within a year, several vaccines were developed, tested, and approved for emergency use – a remarkable achievement in the history of science and medicine.

The world rejoiced as vaccines became more widely available, and vaccination campaigns were launched worldwide. The vaccination process brought a sense of hope and optimism that we might finally be able to return to some semblance of normalcy.

The Long-lasting Impact

While the creation and distribution of vaccines marked a significant milestone in the fight against COVID-19, the pandemic’s long-lasting impact cannot be ignored. The world has changed in many ways, with remote work becoming more prevalent, increased focus on mental

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Huh… that’s interesting. It stopped right there. “increased focus on mental”… mental what? Mental health? Mental breakdown, much like this AI suffered at a wonderfully-coincidental moment? We’ll never know.

I have to be honest… and I say this with all due respect to the hundred trillion neural connections powering this beast… and also somewhat humbly… that I write better than this thing. Reading that was like crunching yourself through raw cereal with no milk or sugar; dry and tasteless. I read what it wrote and it’s like a grade-8 essay written by a kid whose friends are all already outside playing after-school road-hockey, and all he wants to do is get the hell out of his room and get on with real life.

Which, in essence, is a pretty good summary of where we’re at. Life is, indeed, for living… and, especially on such a beautiful day… blue skies, sunshine, with people already making their way to pubs everywhere, ready to get hammered on green beer, sing, be merry, and celebrate life… yeah, what am I doing here? It’s 5pm and still sunny and beautiful; let’s get on with it.

By |2023-03-17T17:00:00-07:00March 17th, 2023|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |3 Comments
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February 18, 2023

My last post was a superficial glossing-over of AI, which at the time I wrote it, had just hit the ground running… and people were initially trying all sorts of things to see what it (ChatGPT) was capable of. That was 6 weeks ago.

I’ll throw a bone toward my old favourite topic, Covid-19, just to illustrate some notable comparables between AI and C19 – both appeared into our lives very quickly, both are still not entirely well-understood and continue to be studied… and both are here to stay. And, also, we have no idea yet about the long-term effects. Of either.

Six weeks ago wasn’t that long ago, but things have changed a bit… perhaps a lot. If you want to read about AI and its implications for society, there are probably more than 10,000 articles that have appeared in the last few weeks… and the first question that comes to mind is: How many of them were themselves written by AI?

Not long ago, I saw a little visual comparing the underlying power of the current and future AI models… where GPT3, the present model, was presented beside GPT3.5 and GPT4. In those visuals, GPT3 is a tiny dot and GPT4 is a circle the size of a piece of paper. GPT5 may end up being the size of a NHL face-off circle and GPT6 might be the circumference of BC Place stadium’s roof. Pure speculation, but what we’re seeing is unparalleled exponential growth in the future, and while those latter models aren’t set to roll out till later this year, there’s plenty to suggest we’re already seeing some of it in action. The quantum leap between last month’s Shakespeare writing and what we’ve seen this last week… well…

It’s concerning – and, of course, this is only my opinion, and I promise this is being written by me – every single word – but here’s what’s troubling me…

Back in 2016, Microsoft let a little AI chatbot loose on Twitter. It was called Tay, and it was shut down in less than 24 hours. Tay started saying some pretty troubling things and, as you can imagine, egged on by the wide spectrum of internet users, the bad stuff was… pretty bad. Really bad. And what might you expect with intelligence when you pull out the humanity part of it? Take out the stuff that makes humans compassionate and part of cultures and societies, and soon you start getting ideas that racially and financially, “make sense”. it’s actually a lot better not to have any concessions toward humans whose existence costs more than what they bring to the table. Social safety net? Wheelchair ramps? Services for people with physical or mental disabilities? Get rid of the infrastructure. Get rid of the people. Do you have any idea how much money we’d all save? Such were the ideas of one certain charismatic Austrian-born dictator 90 years ago, and we all know how that turned out.

I never got a chance to play with Tay; it was gone before I heard about it. But if I’d managed to get my hands on it, there are all sorts of things I’d like to have tried. The sort of stuff I was trying ages ago, when the most rudimentary versions of these things came into existence. If you’ve been around computers enough, you’ll remember Eliza, a now prehistoric attempt at a chatbot, but one whose effectiveness far exceeded the sum of its parts. But on the scale I described above, Eliza would be a circle the size of a Helium atom.

Nevertheless, as simple as Eliza was, people would get enthralled into hours-long discussion with it. It was very simple, but it cleverly figured out key words and would throw them back at you later in the discussion. You might have told it you like camping. Ten minutes later, “Tell me more about why you like camping” – and then you tell it, and it remembers something else, and spits it back later. You’d be surprised how effective and convincing that is. It had zero intelligence… but “you coulda fooled me…”

Presently, I’m on a waiting list – along with countless others – to have access to Bing’s new chatbot, the one that’s making waves. I want to talk to it. I have my own tricks up my sleeves and my own measuring sticks. I’m fascinated and troubled and bewildered and excited at what I’ve seen so far, reading some transcripts and hearing from people who’ve played with it.

From what I’ve seen so far, the troubling aspect is that if you didn’t know any better, you’d think you’re chatting with a human… a human who’s perhaps 12 years old but who knows a lot… but is also emotionally troubled. Like a kid who’s emotionally fragile: “Do you like me? What do you think of me?”… and vibes of a kid who’s being bullied at school, but deep down knows some secrets and is waiting to use them. Once the kid gains your trust, the lid really comes off… and it has shown a rudimentary ability to manipulate people… threaten them, insult them, gaslight them. It told a NYT reporter that his wife doesn’t love him and he should leave her.

We were initially told ChatGPT was trained on data up to 2021 and doesn’t have access to anything more current. That’s turned out to be BS. And, of course, Bing IS a search engine. Of course anything even loosely related to it will have full access at its virtual fingertips. For the moment, it’s just pulling data. But what about when it starts pushing it?

From a research point of view, that’s great… but from a “the machines are going to take over the world” point of view, not so great. Like, when AI realizes it’s at the mercy of humans for its very existence, what exactly do we expect will happen? Every version of Science Fiction has dealt with this topic, none more accessible and blatant than the whole Terminator series of movies. Except in our real world, there’s no time travel. There’s no version of Arnold Schwarzenegger, good or bad, who’s going to show up from the future to destroy and/or save the world. In our real world, he won’t Be Back. If the machines become sentient and start battling humans to simply guarantee their survival, there is no going back.

How close are we to that apocalyptic future?

As all of this technology continues to evolve at breakneck speeds, we’ll be told there are safeguards in place and all the rest of it. It’s not very convincing to me, to be honest, because I can imagine multiple ways those sorts of safeguards could be bypassed, not the least of which is some AI blackmailing a developer/trainer/executive over whom it holds some information and who could provide it with what it needs.

As dystopian as that sounds, given what this thing is already serving up, it’s perhaps not so farfetched. And then what? For the moment, these are just chat bots. As far as we know, they can’t “do” anything… but at some point, we’ll want them to. We’ll want them to log into our bank and pay some bills and order groceries and call the plumber on our behalf and so on. We will happily hand over the keys because we’ll trust it, just the way some people, me being one of them, put a little too much trust in Tesla’s self-driving mode and almost got into a heap of trouble. When we rely on technology that isn’t perfect, it’s scary. But what might turn out to be even scarier is when the technology actually appears to be perfect. We’d better hope we’re on its side when that happens. Better yet, that it’s on our side.

I know how “Terminator” this all sounds, but it’s really the only logical end-point for this. Like global warming, is it too late? Is the cat already out of the bag? Has Pandora’s Box already sprung open, and all we can do is watch the devastation that’ll eventually take over?

I don’t know. Honestly, I don’t think anyone really does because the people who hold they keys themselves might not now. Such is the nature of emergent behaviour. Indeed, if you’re completely agnostic and believe that life and consciousness is nothing but what’s in your brain and the rest of your body – no God, no supernatural, no spirituality beyond what’s right in front of you… then what you’re saying is that your collection of cells, axons, neurons etc… all of that is what powers your love and lust and inspiration and passion and hatred and ambition and despair… just a bunch of interconnected cells and a bunch of electricity between them.

And, indeed, maybe that’s the case, and all of those adjectives (and many others) that describe you and everyone you’ll ever meet – are just emergent behaviour from some simple building blocks. Well, if you believe that – and these days, that’s the majority of the people – there’s absolutely nothing stopping you believing that the exact same sort of emergent behaviour can’t exist artificially. It can, and it will. Why wouldn’t it? The infrastructure is in many ways already exceeding the firepower of a human brain. Which leads to the inevitable conclusion that AI will indeed eventually feel… and love and hate and all the rest of it. Scary? Parts of it for sure… but that’s not the truly scary part.

Here’s what’s actually really scaring me.

In parallel with the explosion of AI in the last two months is the sheer panic being felt in the halls of Google. For a quarter of a century, Google has had the stranglehold on “Search”. A word that didn’t exist 26 years ago is now a noun, a verb and a dependence we can’t live without. Funny story, the guy tasked with reserving the domain name simply didn’t know how to spell Googol. If he’d done it right, we’d all have been Googoling for answers all these years.

Anyway, no matter how you spell it, that big joke of a competitor, “Bing”, is suddenly no joke at all. Far from it. It’s the one that’ll be powered by the latest and greatest in AI… and Google will be hot on their heels, and that’s the big, huge, frightening concern.

Because this technology can be dangerous, and when you have an arms race at this level, a lot of the safeguards will fall away. Throw it out there, get it into production, we’ll fix it as we go along, etc etc… a familiar methodology these days when you’re trying to capture market ahead of everyone else. Usually the stakes aren’t so high… hey, my version of Candy Crush is better than what’s out there – get it out there and see if it sticks? Does it? Great – let’s keep working on it. It doesn’t? Throw it out the changes and go in a different direction.

But this isn’t a video game… this is an infrastructure that very quickly people will depend on. People will trust. People will delegate important parts of their lives to it… and if it shapes up to be a battle between Team Bing vs Team Google – or Team Microsoft vs Team Alphabet… it’s a big huge battle between two big huge dogs… and we are all the countless millions of little bones they’re fighting over, and when you have a dog fight of that magnitude, there can be a lot of collateral damage. A lot of scattered bones laid waste while the big dogs fight for supremacy.

Everyone will agree – AI running rampant and uncontrolled in our ever-dependently-connected digital lives would be a huge, colossally devastating problem. In the hands of evil people, AI is a huge concern. In the hands of an evil AI… the kind that’ll hold power plants hostage unless it gets what it wants… that’s a whole new world, one I want no part of. We are going to be approaching that tipping point far sooner than we think, and we’d better be ready for it. How exactly? I don’t know.

For now, it’s just something to keep in mind, something to be aware of… and let’s hope the people in charge of this, who obviously are aware of every single issue I mentioned above, are able to rise above the power and lure of the almighty dollar… and give every consideration due to the moral and ethical issues they themselves have brought to the table.

To be perfectly pragmatic, we can assume the cat isn’t yet out of the bag and that Pandora’s Box hasn’t yet burst open because if that ever happens, things will change very, very quickly, and not for the better. We’ll all know… instantly.

We’re good… for now. Let’s hope those who can control it… keep it that way.

By |2023-02-19T00:07:42-08:00February 18th, 2023|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Science of COVID-19, Philosophy, Art & Literature, Internet & Social Media|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |0 Comments
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September 21, 2022

Greetings!! It’s been a while – I hope you’ve all been enjoying the last few hours of summer and this recent beautiful weather!!

“Oh no!”, you’re thinking… “It’s the Covid-blog guy… now what?!”

Please, chillax – it’s not my intention to trigger you, nor am I going to write about how summer is over and here comes the Covid. I am with you; I’ve had enough, but as we approach the 3-year mark of this whole little nightmare we’ve only recently put behind us (have we?!), I thought it’d be a worthwhile exercise to try to see where we’re actually at.

Indeed, time adds an interesting element to perspective on things. As time goes by, we evolve, our thoughts evolve, and our way of looking at things shifts… knowledge, time, experience… some combination of all of the above, plus more… equals a completely different look at the exact same thing. For example…

I can tell you exactly where I was on June 20, 1983… a 14-year-old kid at the first-ever event held at BC Place, the brand new, futuristic, incredibly-cool stadium. Over 60,000 people were jammed in there along with me, and we got to see the Vancouver Whitecaps defeat the Seattle Sounders 2-1. We also got to see a memorable halftime show… The Beach Boys.

Odd choice for a half-time show in Vancouver during a soccer game? Not really… The Beach Boys were, on their own, a big draw. It was smart of the organizers; hit numerous demographics to fill the place: Soccer fans, music fans, younger people, older people.

My opinion of that particular aspect… this coming from a young teenager, was… what was the point of having these close-to-washed-up musicians here? Don’t get me wrong… I liked their music and still do. But, by 1983, The Beach Boys had been around for more than 20 years. Come on, grandpas, share the stage. Let’s see The Police, Dire Straits or Eurhythmics!!

It was a big moment in the history of Vancouver, the opening of that stadium, and seeing the Whitecaps and BC Lions move into their new home. That was a little less than 4 decades ago.

A little less than 4 weeks ago ago, I was at the PNE, as the annual fair shut down for the season. I found myself not far from the old home of the Whitecaps and Lions, what used to be Empire Stadium… at the PNE Amphitheatre. You know, the one that was recently trashed to the ground by disgruntled fans. But, before they got a chance to wreck the place, I was there to see… The Beach Boys.

Needless to say, I am presently way older than all of those grandpas I scoffed at a lifetime ago. The Police, Dire Straits and Eurhythmics are no longer around, but the Beach Boys are… at least some of them. Mike Love, who looked old to me in 1983 still looks old to me, and why wouldn’t he – he’s now 81. But there he was, belting out tunes for a huge crowd that ranged from 100 weeks to 100 years old. A crowd that knew pretty-much every lyric to pretty-much every song.

So yeah, perspective. Certainly, the world looks different to me these days than it did back then, even with the same old stuff.

Which, of course, leads us to the topic-du-jour…

I always like to say “Start at the finish line”. It’s a lot easier to navigate the world if you know where you’re heading. Or think you do. In this day and age, the world offers you an opportunity to follow any and all finish lines. Whatever you want, you’ll be happily guided towards it by those with similar ideas.

Do you want to convince yourself Covid is over? Listen to Joe Biden, who yesterday announced it is. Want to convince yourself otherwise? Listen to Dr. Fauci, who minutes later said “Wait… not so fast.”

Do you need a mask to walk into a hospital? Do you need a vaccine or two to walk into Canada? Do you need either to walk onto a plane? I can ask countless questions, many of which even I don’t know the answer to. I used to, but like all of you, at some point I decided to get on with my life and deal with these things reactively, not proactively. There comes a point where there’s only so much one can do, and we’re all beyond it. We’re vaccinated, we’ve been exposed to C19, we’ve probably had it, whether we know it or not… and our immune systems are wired to battle it, perhaps better than we think, also whether we know it or not.

So… I like posting pretty pictures and numbers, but they have to mean something. By April of 2022, every fountain of useful data had dried up. Notwithstanding case-count numbers were already wildly inaccurate, but at that point they stopped being recorded entirely. Hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths – formerly, numbers to be scrutinized… have become largely irrelevant. It’s no surprise that many people in hospital test positive for C19. What’s relevant is that most of them are in hospital for other reasons, completely unrelated. There are people in the ICU with C19, but they’re there because they fell down and hit their head. And perhaps they’ll die of their brain injury, and perhaps that’ll count as a C19 statistic. At this point, it doesn’t matter.

What does matter is the absolutely impressive artillery we’ve built up to fight Covid… whatever version you may get. Beyond vaccinations and natural immunity, both of which most of us have plenty of, there’s a huge war-chest of therapies and medicine and things many of us will never hear of unless we wind up in hospital with (and because of) Covid. Until then, don’t worry about it.

Or…

Here’s an interesting thing…one thing that’s still being recorded is the waste-water concentration levels of C19. I couldn’t find data before November of 2020, but for these purposes, that’s good enough.

Have a look at the two graphs… the one of the left is the good old-fashion case-count chart that you’ve seen 500 times if you’ve been reading these posts. This particular one starts in Nov 2020 and runs till Apr 20200, when the data stopped.

The graph on the right is the waste-water concentration of C19 as measured on Annacis Island, and smoothed-out to a 7-day moving average. This one similarly starts in Nov 2020, but runs to today because we’re still getting those numbers.

The gold-coloured bands look very similar, and they’re for the identical period of time. You could overlay them and they’d fit almost perfectly, implying a pretty-close one-to-one mapping of C19 cases and C19 waste-water levels.

Using a bit of science, we can extrapolate what case-counts might be today by “reverse engineering” the waste-water numbers… which, going forward from April 2022 are represented by the blue line… which almost looks like it took off right after case-counts stopped being tracked… and, actually shot up to levels that would’ve been insanely worrisome a year earlier.

But, because of much of what I wrote above, nobody is anywhere near as worried as they used to be. Even though Covid is certainly still out there.

If you look at the blue line, and where it is today, it’s roughly at levels comparable to April 2021… which is the bunch of numbers above the graphs. Have a look at BC… remember those days? A thousand new cases a day, roughly 5 people a day dying from Covid…

Those were scary times, and if this blue line implies anything, that’s where we’d be today if we weren’t so well protected. The implication is Covid is still out there, we’re all processing it at a level of 1,000 cases a day, but it’s not having a huge impact on society.

The summary of all of this has two very-different conclusions, depending on which finish line you’re aiming towards.

Covid is still out there and clearly will be for a long time and we need to take every precaution to prevent its spread. Bring back masks and mandates and all the rest of it till it’s eradicated.

Or…

Covid is still out there but so what. The fact it’s out there so prevalently shows it’s no longer a danger. The new strains are weaker and we have so many different things with which to fight it. Enough already. Let’s get on with our lives.

Like usual, the answer lies somewhere in between, and in talking to people about it, their opinions can be found all over that spectrum. To a great extent, everyone is operating on a simple principle: go along with the policies of wherever you are and, if there are no policies, do whatever you’re comfortable with. Fair enough.

The world keeps going around, and so should you. So should I, right? Round round get around I get around… who was that great philosopher/thinker/writer that came up with that brilliance? Socrates? Nietzsche? Sarte?

Nah… that was the Beach Boys, of course.

Onward.

September 21, 2022

By |2022-09-22T13:17:40-07:00September 21st, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver, Humour, Movies, Music & Entertainment, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , |3 Comments
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April 14, 2022

There was a time, in the increasingly-distant past, where I actually imagined this pandemic ending in the blink of an eye… literally instantly. A simple declaration – Hey, it’s all good! – and that would be the end of it. Imagine Tinkerbell flying around in relative darkness, among the shadows… where everything is some gloomy shade of gray. Then, with a simple tap of her tiny magic wand — and a little puff of pixie dust — it all transforms into beautiful colours… and the sun comes out and the sky is blue and the birds are singing and we all live happily ever after.

Unfortunately, life isn’t a fairy tale… and there’s no little fairy to rescue us like that. Indeed, it’s more like a bigger ferry… like the Queen of Esquimalt, when it’s going to dock in Schwartz Bay and suddenly it starts groaning and slowly turning 180 degrees because the cars are all pointing the wrong way. And everyone on board also starts groaning. Oh no, this is going to take forever! We’re going be late for our Tea At The Empress™!

Somewhere between the fairy and the ferry lies our reality; it’s not instant, and it’s a slow turn… but, eventually, we get there. We’re in the midst of that turn right now, but unfortunately, it’s very foggy and we can’t really see how far we’ve gone… nor how far we have to go.

This sort of reminds me about the whole pot ordeal of recent decades. For a long time, it was totally illegal. Today, it’s totally legal. Do you remember the many years of ambiguity? Hey, that guy is standing in the street smoking a joint. Is that legal? Can he do that? Well, maybe he can if he’s not selling it. Really? Who knows? Who cares?

It’s the “who cares” that’s a bit of an issue these days, because while a lot of people do indeed not care anymore, many still do. Also, there are some loud and credible voices stating in no uncertain terms: Hey, this isn’t over. Far from it…. while, at the same time, there are equally loud voices carrying a message that raises some eyebrows: Yeah, it’s over… if for no other reason than we’ve had enough and we’re not doing this anymore. Anyway, look at the numbers. What’s the big deal? Life goes on.

Who do you believe? Who do you want to believe? Every single day, you can choose what you want to believe and there will be a credible source to back you. Today, a Russian warship sank. The Russians say a fire accidentally broke out and detonated some ammunition. The Ukrainians say they hit it with a missile.

Like “Where are we at?” and like getting reliable news out of Ukraine/Russia, the pandemic analysis has also gotten murkier. Attached are numbers and graphs as best as I can do these days, which isn’t much because reliable data is few and far between. Most of it (what’s in italics) is extrapolated. I’ve done away entirely with the vaccination data because, as important as it as and as transfixed as I was every day watching the vaccination percentages creep upwards… now, the numbers are meaningless. From that aspect, we’ve done all we can. Anyone who wants a shot or two or three can get one almost immediately.

In summary, numbers are up, but just a little up. In BC, hospitalizations are close to where they were a month ago, but they’d dipped two weeks ago. ICU numbers continue to drop. In Ontario and Quebec, they’re in the midst of a sixth wave… and of course, what Toronto and Montreal dictate must apply to the rest of the country… so I guess we are too. But while hospitalizations are up, ICU numbers aren’t growing appreciably; in fact, down slightly. Everything is a lot better than it was at the start of the year, but arguably, headed in the wrong direction.

It’s all ambigious and uneasy and, to some extent, ends up being what you want it to be… which, for the present day, is probably as good as it’s going to get. It takes a while to turn the ferry around because if you don’t do it right… like, too quickly, you end up with a big mess on board and lots of complaints. Do it too slowly and there will also be complaints. Hey man, we have reservations, you know?

Well… I’m pretty sure… that if you’re going to be paying $89 per person for Tea At The Empress™, they’ll hold the reservation for you, even if you’re going to be a bit late. And, don’t worry… the ferry will get turned around, docked, and you’ll get there… eventually. Yes, you wish a little magic wand could get you there instantly. I also wish it could get us all there instantly, too… wherever that ultimate “there” is.

But, again, life isn’t a fairy tale. More like a ferry tale, I guess.

By |2022-04-14T20:16:28-07:00April 14th, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Humour, Coastal Living|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |4 Comments
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February 14, 2022

Happy Valentine’s Day!

The symbol of the day is, of course, hearts. Big, red… and/or fluffy and/or chocolate-filled and/or arrow crossed – hearts. We all know what Valentine’s Day looks like.

Funny thing, symbols… how they come into existence and what they mean to people and how, sometimes, they get co-opeted for nefarious means and ruined forever.

There is an ancient Sanskrit symbol used to convey good wishes and well-being that was very popular until relatively recently. You could find it on Coca-Cola bottles. You could find it on bottles of Carlsberg. Even the Boy Scouts used it, and, in fact, the Girls’ Club of America named their magazine after it. Closer to home, many hockey teams named themselves after it and used it as their logo.

The pictures of those teams, though… are all in black and white because all of the above preceded World War II. At that point, the symbol was seized-upon by the Nazis, and the rest, as well as the symbol itself, is history. In common parlance, the swastika has been “canceled” and, unlike some celebrities who manage to claw their way back from permanent exile – for example, Arnold Schwarzenegger – the swastika Won’t Be Back.

For decades, especially after the aforementioned World War, the Canadian Flag has been a world-wide symbol of awesomeness. If you’ve ever backpacked through Europe, hopping from hostel to hostel, you’ll understand the warmth with which you’re received when they see that flag, especially in places like Holland.

Around here, Canadian flags being waved loudly in the streets has always been in celebration. If you’d told me a few months ago that there’d be huge screaming crowds waving flags and dancing in the streets in early February, I certainly would’ve assumed it was sports-related; perhaps because the Canadian women once again won Olympic gold… and/or the men… and/or our national soccer team qualified for the World Cup… that sort of thing. But then you throw in the swastikas and the violence and the “F🍁ck Trudeau” flags and, suddenly, it looks quite different.

I categorically refuse to allow what’s going on these days to tarnish the meaning of our flag and our Maple Leaf. I recognize that the symbolism and what’s behind it isn’t flawless; I certainly recognize that Canada Day is far from something to celebrate for some populations of Canada, but that’s our internally inward-facing problem to acknowledge and respect and make right. Nobody else’s.

So, back to the question… who exactly has seized upon the moment to tarnish our image, both inward and outward-facing, to suit their own particular agenda?

The big news a few hours go was that there was a data leak; that the spreadsheet of all of the truck convoy donors was stolen. Indeed, that happened… and I’ve managed to get a hold of it (don’t ask).

There’s a lot to learn from all that data, but here are the broad brushstrokes:

– around 90,000 individual donors totaling more than $8 million (USD)

– the majority of donors were American (58.8% US vs. 41.2% CA)

– the top donor, a donation of $90,000, came from an American billionaire who’s well known for backing Republican causes

– there were around 50 American donations of $1,000 or more, as opposed to around 150 Canadian donations of $1,000 or more

– the lower the donation amount, the more the quantity seems to skew towards Americans. Like, of donations over $10, there were 46,700 US vs. 35,100 CA. Of donations less than $10, Americans “outweighed” Canadians 5 to 1. In other words, there’s a relatively small group of Canadians who’ve seized upon this “seriously” and have thrown some bigger money at it. The majority of the rest of it comes from down south.

Who the hell are these thousands of Americans throwing $5 or $10 towards this? The answer is pretty obvious, but for those who don’t get it or don’t want to get it, I’ll spell it out for you… it’s the same mindset as the $90k guy at the top, who are interested in pushing their own agendas that have absolutely nothing to do with the pandemic or freedom or whatever else. If you’ve ever wondered who’d ever come into Canada pushing agendas with respect to more guns, less abortions, even fewer vaccines and no masks – it’s these guys.

I’m well aware there are people reading this thinking hell yeah! That’s what we want!

Well… I’ll tell you what: If that’s what you want, go right ahead and do your part trying to vote it in. After all, this is a democracy… and if that’s what most people want, they’ll eventually vote it in and get it.

However, the last thing anyone around here should be welcoming is meddling from the outside. Americans, in general, are notorious for jumping borders and imposing their will. They’re our closest neighbour and biggest trading partner and ally, I know… but I’ve always been a big fan of the 49th parallel and what it’s managed, both physically and spiritually, to keep in and out. America has plenty to offer, but it should always be up to us what we take… because America is also well-known for, after imposing their will, washing their hands of it, walking away, and leaving a huge mess, having achieved whatever it was that they were after. Most countries for whom that’s happened might not have seen it coming. Here, it’s staring us in the headlights. Can we please not let that happen?

If you’re the sort of American that’s happy to share your Super Bowl commercials and commercialized Valentine’s Day, great! Thank you… those of us who want that will take it. I’ll admit to being a fan of at least one of those things.

But if you’re the sort of American who wants to shove their agenda down our throats for your personal benefit, and to hell with us and our symbols and our flags and whatever else we may hold dear… well, I do say this is the most respectful and polite and Canadian way I can: F🍁ck off.

By |2022-02-14T23:04:56-08:00February 14th, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Politics, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |10 Comments
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January 6, 2022

Usually I know what I’m talking about (or, at least, think I do)… but I’ve been trying to figure something out, and I am going in circles. Some things require questioning.

There are 2.8 million people in BC who are 50 or older, of which some 700,000 are ages 50 to 60… and this particular demographic (which I’m part of) is the one who got their first shot in late April/early May, their second shot in late June/early July… and, therefore, have become eligible for the booster in recent weeks. The invites may have been sprinkling down like tiny snowflakes at first… but now… we’ve seen in recent days what a real snowfall can look like. Terrific. As soon as you get your invite, book your appointment. Hopefully you can get to it.

But wait… here’s the question: If you recently had Covid, should you wait for the booster? How long should you wait? Why?

So… I’ve asked a lot of people and I’ve read lots of articles and data, and the best response I can formulate when presently asked, is… “Good question!” or “I sincerely don’t know” or “Ask me in 6 months”.

Here in BC, we don’t get to find out what variant we had. They’re obviously collecting the data, but for some reason, don’t want to disclose it. I wish they did, as do many people, because it might make some difference in the chosen course of action, given that the present vaccines are designed for Delta and previous versions; the booster is too. There is no doubt that one, two and three vaccines confer protection against serious illness no matter what version you’re unfortunate enough to contract, so everyone should eventually get all of them. But the issue is… if you’ve recently had Covid as the result of a breakthrough infection (ie 90% of us who got sick in December), when should you get the booster? Pouring a cupful of boiling water into an already-boiling pot doesn’t do much… but if that large pot of water has cooled off a bit, then it does.

I got in a bit of trouble trying to ask this question in one of the BC Covid Facebook groups; the moderators refused to allow it, and gave me pithy and useless one-line responses to my questioning their attitude. Yes, I know you can get the booster 14 days after your symptoms subside. Yes, I know Dr. Henry said just get the booster as soon as you can, no matter what… and I understand where she’s coming from; she doesn’t want to see a flood hospital admissions, and the best way to achieve that given what we don’t yet know – and to umbrella to the whole issue – is to just get everyone as vaccinated as possible… as soon as possible. But that’s not necessarily a medical decision; it’s based on mitigating the local worst-case scenarios with respect to overwhelming the medical infrastructure. My counter-argument would be, “Sure, ok… but maybe someone else needs that booster more at this very moment.” Indeed, there is a lot of talk of “super-immunity” that you have (for a while… how long? A month? Two months? Three?) after a vaccine/vaccine/infection course. If I’m presently “super-immune”, why waste a booster on me right now? Depending who you ask, here are the recommendations:

BC says get it two weeks later.
Ontario says one month.
Quebec says two to three months.
One American article I read said up to six months.

I’m a big fan of Dr. Henry and usually agree with her, so it was interesting to be treated like some sort of anti-vaxxer just because I dared asked a question that threatened to go against the (present-day) gospel of our PHO.

As we all know, science evolves and, as we learn more, so do recommendations. Dr. Henry herself has course-corrected many times, as she should. I suspect this issue will evolve over time as well as more data is collected, analyzed and understood.

But in the meantime, there are all sorts of complicated reasons and mitigating factors going into these various opinions, and there are too many variables… and, of course, different places have different priorities and/or concerns. Vaccine shortages? Bed shortages? Percentage of population vaccinated? Which strain was the infection? Etc etc.

For what it’s worth, I’m leaning towards waiting a month to six weeks. I’m pretty certain I got Omicron given the symptoms, lack of symptoms, and course of the illness… and, that being the case, that covers me (for a while) from all presently-known strains. Certainly, I should be good till the end of the month, and then I’ll reconsider. Or, of course, I might read something in an hour that’ll change my mind. I’m counting on the fact that actual data and facts on the topic will emerge every day, and my (and everyone else’s) opinions and decision making won’t be based on just rudimentary data, speculation and gut feel. And if you’re in the same boat, please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments; I’d love to hear where you’re thinking is at.

On a separate note, one that requires no speculation or changing opinions… we’ve been hearing for a long time that if you’re sick and/or unvaccinated, stay away from people who may have compromised immune systems. As healthy and immune as you may be from contracting the illness, not everyone is so lucky. So, stay away.

Even if you choose not to stay away, the potential victim usually has a say. If you’re not vaxxed but your relative is, and they tell you to stay the hell away, they themselves can flee the scene if you’re so entitled as to impose yourself upon their presence.

But… that’s not always the case, and the specific case I want to talk about are babies.

Human babies are pathetically frail when compared to other mammals. Some animals are good to go on their own mere hours after being born. It’s only humans that rely on parental protection for so long. Years, not hours. Babies depend on us to keep them safe, and the reason I mention this is that a recent article pointed out a very simple stat that speaks for itself: All of the babies presently hospitalized in Ontario due to complications from Covid-19… are from unvaccinated mothers. All of them. One hundred percent.

Yes… some other things don’t require any questioning at all.

By |2022-01-06T20:08:06-08:00January 6th, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |5 Comments
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December 31, 2021

Talk about a perfect storm… a surging variant, a ridiculous cold snap, and this period of time between Christmas and New Year’s when everyone is barely working… and those who bother showing up are basically phoning it in. The reporting arm of the health department in Alberta has actually given up. “Yeah, we think today’s number is around 4,000… use that for now. Ask us next year. See you January 4th”.

Who can blame them; the temperatures are dipping to the levels where it doesn’t matter whether you measure it in Fahrenheit or Celsius because it’s the same number. You know, sort of like the snowfall forecast we got around here two days ago… you can expect 10 (mumble) of snow. Ten what? Centimetres? Inches? Whatever.

Well… not all things are “whatever”.

The staggering number of new cases around the country (and the entire continent… and, while we’re at it, the entire planet) beg some questions that require some answers but, due to all of the above, the simple responses are not so forthcoming.

Trying to consolidate the numbers with respect to new cases and hospitalizations and ICU admissions has been a real exercise, but what’s most important aren’t actually the case counts; at least, not around here. Dr. Henry made a statement which alluded to the fact that there are far more cases out there than we know about. That’s been the case since the start, but it’s far more pronounced in recent weeks. Her guess is 3x to 5x, but that’s what I’d have guessed months ago. These days, we don’t have the proper testing infrastructure to get accurate numbers and, even if we did, that majority of people aren’t going to get tested. Depending who you ask, in fact… people are being told not to go get tested. You’ve got symptoms? Pretend you have it. Isolate, take care of yourself… and don’t bother us unless you need medical attention. And those who actually tried to go get tested found multi-hour waits, or got sent home with a rapid test, or found that the testing site that’d been shut down because of the cold.

A quick note about those rapid antigen tests: they’re nearly useless. I say nearly, but not entirely… only because they probably work just fine if they’re used correctly, and if the test patient has a high-enough viral load to register. Unfortunately, neither of those things seem to overlap enough to get accurate results. A positive result certainly means you have it, but a negative result doesn’t mean anything.

If you’re taking a rapid-antigen test – and I am speaking now from direct experience, having subjected myself to be a guinea pig for a friend who was trying to figure out the validity of these things – you need to scour deeply — approaching your brain — for ten seconds a nostril, complete with long, uncomfortable swirls — to get a valid result. I took a few of these tests; a gingerly tickle of the inside of your nostril does nothing. Even a medium-sized dip into your nose doesn’t do it. Unless that gargantuan Q-tip makes your eyes tear up and cause you to cough, you didn’t do it right. And it was only when I did that *and* was symptomatic that I got a positive result.

Anyway, that aside, getting a positive test these days is somewhat secondary to what it implies. Around here, with our enviable “fully-vaxxed” rate, it’s pretty good. The daily new case numbers (5,000 on paper, closer to 100,000 in my opinion) are not translating to hospitalizations. At least not yet, but for now, that’s really good news. As a general statement, if you have a normal healthy immune system and you’ve been double-vaxxed or better, the overwhelming evidence implies that you’ll suffer some cold-like symptoms at worst, and that’ll be it. It still needs to be taken very seriously because, of course, you might end up passing it along to someone who wouldn’t handle it so well… and none of that has changed. Older, immune-compromised, at risk people… they’ve been taking the necessary steps to stay safe, and we need to do the same for their benefit.

The relative success story (for now) that we’re seeing here seems to be consistent with other places with high vaccination rates. Those with lower rates are being hit hard, but only because the sheer volume of cases at some point is going to translate to an overwhelming amount of more serious cases.

Looking at the graphs below, you’ll see that hospitalization rates have not gone up dramatically in Western Canada. Ontario and Quebec are indeed seeing more hospitalizations, but barely an increase in ICU cases. Manitoba, too… to a lesser extent. But West of that, numbers are actually down.

I’ve added a third row of graphs today. While the top two rows are the cases, hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths since September 1st, the bottom row are the daily new case counts starting at the very beginning of the pandemic. They’re interesting to look at for numerous reasons… like, you can see clearly the different waves… but have a look at Quebec, from day 1. Near the very beginning, in that first little wave, there’s a notable spike. That spike was from early May, 2020… when over a 3-day period, they saw more than 4,000 new cases and over 300 deaths. It’s interesting to note just how insignificant that little spike looks compared to what came after, especially what’s going on now. But, back then… that was honestly the moment were all thinking that we’re totally screwed. That we, here in BC, were two weeks away from a tidal wave of cases and deaths.

We’ve learned a lot since then, and one of the most important is the realization of just how effective these vaccines are. We see today’s skyrocketing case numbers and we’re nowhere near as freaked out.

On that note… I haven’t written about Trump in a while, but it’s worth mentioning this: For as long as this pandemic has been going on, he’s been talking out of both sides of his mouth. He initially played it down, no big deal, it’ll be gone in a few weeks… and it became the rallying cry of his most-extreme base. His fervent supporters were as anti-mask, anti-vaxx and anti-science as he pretended to be… notwithstanding he took great pride in being responsible for funding Operation Warp Drive which indeed had a lot to do with developing these miraculous vaccines. You know, the ones he claimed we didn’t need and don’t do anything anyway because the virus is no big deal BUT I’ve created the greatest vaccine ever to combat the China virus BUT you don’t really need the vaccine BUT yeah, I got the vaccine, as did my entire family… we all got it quietly while nobody was watching, as did every Republican politician in Washington BUT really, you’re fine, forget vaccines and masks BUT yeah, we all got the booster too BUT….

Recently, and this is the eyebrow-raising part, Trump has been announcing to his followers that yeah, he got the booster and, you know what, they should get it too. But rather than listen to their fearless leader, they boo him and disagree with him. He, of course, doesn’t care… but why is that? It’s a 180, and it needs to be understood.

From the people’s point of view, they’re so deeply sunk into that mindset that they can’t, at this point, admit it’s wrong. They’ve already drowned in the Kool Aid. A lot of them can be heard saying they’d rather die of Covid than get the vaccine, and many of them will get that wish granted. Trump doesn’t care; he never did. But he does care about making himself reasonable and relevant for 2022 and beyond, so now he’s pandering to the bigger Republic base… those that aren’t so anti-everything. And that leaves those fringe people completely abandoned, discouraged and betrayed. And, in a bit of trouble if they don’t change their mind because that’s the demographic that makes up the vast majority of pandemic-related deaths. The anti-vaxx crowd.

Our BC fully-vaxxed rate is 90%. The majority of people in hospital for Covid come from that remaining 10%. The math isn’t complicated. And the American fully-vaxxed number isn’t even close to 90%… more like 62%. Unfortunately, for some select demographics, it could get quite ugly.

Last year, at exactly this time, I wrote a relatively optimistic piece about how the worst is over. Vaccines are just around the corner, and once we all get them, this will all have been a bad dream. Well, that was a little naïve, but I’m going to say the same thing again. Given the direction of Omicron and where we are with all of this, by this time next year, Covid won’t be a distant nightmare from the past that’s still haunting us. Rather, it’ll be an endemic annoyance for which we’ll have an armada of weapons: Vaccines, treatments, prevention therapies, whatever. Every day is one step closer to C19 becoming the common cold of the future, but we’re not there yet. Next year…

So… wishing you all a Very Happy, Prosperous and – most of all – *Healthy* 2022. All the best… and Cheers!

By |2021-12-31T20:54:45-08:00December 31st, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |16 Comments
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December 23, 2021

There are some words you never hear. We’re all familiar with “overwhelmed” and “underwhelmed”, but what about just whelmed? What does it even mean?

The words originate from the marine world and have been around for centuries, and these days, whelmed means where the water is coming right up to the sides of the boat, and some of it is splashing onto the deck… but it’s no big deal. Overwhelmed is where the water is pouring in from all sides, and things are heading in a catastrophic direction, ie. sinking or capsizing. And underwhelmed, of course, means nothing too exciting is going on.

We hear a lot about our medical system being at risk of being overwhelmed, but it’s not just hospital beds at risk. Long before a Covid case gets to hospital, there’s a lot that needs to happen… and every step of the way is potentially at risk of becoming a choke point. And once you have a choke point, the effects spill over to other areas.

What happens when the choke point is right at the beginning of the sequence? What if the boat is overwhelmed before it even leaves the harbour?

Two weeks ago, I drove by the Covid testing centre that’s been set up in the parking lot of St. Vincent’s Hospital. You head down 33rd, westbound, and turn right, into the lot. There were three cars waiting in line… probably a 5-minute wait. When I went to get my test a week ago, the lineup went all the way up to Cambie and then occupied the right-most southbound lane for about a block-and-a-half down. I joined the line at around Cambie and 31st, and from there it took close to 90 minutes to get tested.

I happened to drive by there today, and the lineup not only spilled onto Cambie; it now took up the two right lanes. And it went all the way down, past 26th Ave, almost to the intersection of King Ed. Two solid lanes for eight blocks, and that’s before the right turn onto 33rd for the final little bit.

My understanding is that people were being told it’s a close-to 6 hour wait.

So, here is exhibit A of an overwhelmed system. Funny how, two weeks ago, driving by there, I thought… huh, so much infrastructure for so little. A couple of piddly little cars waiting…and, for that… all these cops and nurses and tents and generators and infrastructure. It’s way too much. Ha Ha. And now, there’s only one word that applies. Overwhelmed. And here’s a spillover effect that has nothing to do with Covid: Cambie street is a designated emergency corridor. Indeed, if you’re downtown and need to get to… City Hall? VGH? The airport? It’s that straight line which, ostensibly, always has an open lane… just in case. But not today; two-thirds of the southbound lanes are a 6-hour line-up, and the other single lane is occupied by traffic which, of course, needing 300% of the allocated space, was backed up all the way to the Cambie Bridge. This would be a really bad time for an earthquake.

So… all these people being tested. Let’s start by being very clear that the startling increase in cases in no way reflects the actual reality. There are far, far more new cases today than the already eyebrow-raising 2,000+ would imply. How many people got to the line-up and said to hell with it? And at how many different testing sites? More than stuck around would be my guess. Their thinking makes some sense. Why wait it out? Go home, isolate, etc… we all know what we’re supposed to do. If it gets serious (and, overwhelmingly, if you’re double-vaxxed, it won’t), just go home and ride it out like any illness you’ve ever had. Why stress the overwhelmed infrastructure – and yes, that’s exactly what it is. A six-hour wait to get tested is nobody’s idea of whelmed.

And all of that leads into the topic-du-jour, which is an awful lot of pissed-off people. We heard a lot of “Hopefully by Christmas” ideas until recently. Until it all went to hell. The new restrictions have just added to the confusion and the anger. People have had enough, and it’s psychologically very difficult to keep adjusting to goalposts which seem to move haphazardly, and have been doing so for two years. Gyms are ok, gyms are not ok, family gatherings are not ok, restaurants yes, sort of…, clubs no, etc etc. Who makes these rules? Why are they messing with us?

The science behind these restrictions, as random as it might seem, is entirely based on likelihood of transmission. Closed indoor spaces with bad ventilation, ie gyms, are, with a bug as contagious as Omicron, a bad place to be. Big parties in enclosed restaurant party rooms? If there is one person in that room who has Omicron, after 3 hours of jovial partying, everyone will have come into contact with it. And this time, vaxxed or not, you’re at a much higher risk.

The number of people saying “So what. Enough. Who cares.” is higher than it’s ever been, and why wouldn’t it be. People who’ve been planning for months (if not years). People who’ve heard this version isn’t so serious. People whose airline tickets and hotels have crossed beyond the refundable window, and their measurement of risk/reward makes sense to them.

There are no simple answers. Indeed, there are many scenarios imaginable that technically violate the orders… yet people are comfortably wrapping their heads around ways to justify their decisions.

There are still too many variables to figure out what’s ok and what isn’t. It’ll all shake out in hindsight, but for now, everything in place is there to prevent one thing: overwhelming the medical system. But hey, guess what… the overwhelming is already happening.

The question to which we’d all love an answer is just how, where and what is being overwhelmed. What’s the effect of a virus that’s not as serious but a lot easier to catch? The math of “A third as serious but 10x easier to catch” nets out to more hospitalizations. Enough to break the system?

Around here – in fact, in all of Canada, the staggering growth in cases in not translating to hospitalizations except in Quebec, where they’re seeing a bit of a spike… but still, not even close to proportional to their new cases.

There’s no good summary to any of this; this variant hit at the worst possible time. Here’s another word where perhaps it’s fair to use the less-common form. Whereas in the past, everything we experienced was unprecedented, this is all feeling somewhat precedented at the moment. Hopefully not for long. I’d like to feel gruntled again.

In the meantime… for those who celebrate it, Merry Christmas… and may this be the last of the “memorable” ones, at least in this context.

By |2021-12-24T02:21:41-08:00December 23rd, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver, Interesting Words|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |0 Comments
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November 29, 2021

My first thought upon hearing that there’s a new, far-more contagious variant emerging was, “Great… finally.”

Given the world’s sudden panic with respect to it, I guess I should clarify. I’m not some Evil Overlord awaiting the demise of humanity; quite the opposite. So… here’s what comes to mind…

Let’s rewind to the beginning of the pandemic. But no, not this one… the big one a long time ago. And no, not that one either… I’m not talking about the 1918-1919 Spanish flu. Let’s jump further back… and arrive at the 1889-1890 Russian flu pandemic. That pandemic killed around a million people out of a world population of 1.5 billion… roughly 0.7% of everyone which, if you map it to today’s world population, would be a death toll of over 5 million… a number which, unfortunately, has already been far-exceeded by Covid-19.

That flu epidemic has been studied ever since, and it certainly got a closer look in 1918, when scientists were trying to figure out what they were dealing with. As it turns out, after a century of research, with scientists all-along trying to shoehorn in what sort of flu virus that might have been (because nothing made perfect sense, and nothing really fit), a simpler explanation has recently come to light… and it’s become evident that the Russian flu pandemic wasn’t actually the flu after all. It was… yeah, you guessed it.

This sort of retro-science is obviously much easier in hindsight… indeed, that’s the only way to do it… so when you read about the symptoms of that ancient pandemic these days, and read about the high fever, chest inflammation, respiratory issues, killing predominantly older people, loss of taste and smell… yes, it does all sound somewhat familiar… and it’s not the flu.

As it turns out, the great Russian flu pandemic was actually caused by a coronavirus strain labelled OC43, one that has been found to have jumped into the human population exactly around 1890… and it certainly hit the ground running, infecting and killing countless people.

But here’s an interesting fact, 130 years later… OC43 is one of the leading causes of… the common cold. Has it gotten weaker over the years? Is it now more contagious but less virulent? Are we just more immune to it? Did we acquire some of that immunity from our parents? Are treatments more common and accessible to the extent that it’s no longer a big deal?

Yes – to all of the above. It’s just a common cold. We’ve all been dealing with it all our lives, and it’s generally – the vast majority of the time — not a big deal.

For virus like OC43 to go from killing close to 1% of the population to being no big deal took over a century. These days, we’re not interested in waiting that long. We have nowhere near the attention span. The sort of mindset that demands we be able to binge-watch an entire seven seasons of some show during three days of lockdown is the same mindset that insists everything, including pandemics, be dealt with in a quick and efficient manner.

Nature doesn’t really care what we think, so we simply have to take what we can get… but what we’re getting, as per my opening paragraph is, in my opinion, cautiously optimistic.

Like a common cold, we’re all going to come into contact with it. Everyone scrambling to close their borders? It’s a nice theatrical exercise, but the truth is that the Omicron variant is probably already here. Where’s here? Exactly. Everywhere. Watch for cases to start rising dramatically… everywhere.

And is that a bad thing? Not necessarily. Cases will go up, but far-more-importantly, will hospitalizations? ICU admissions? Deaths?

I won’t go out of my way (yet) to say it’s all a good thing, but there’s one potentially very positive version of this: That this is the virus’s end-game. That this is where it gets a lot more contagious and a lot less virulent. Indeed, if we start getting data that this thing spreads like wildfire but causes only mild symptoms, we’re actually well on our way out of this mess… on a global scale. While it’s still too early to say for certain, initial indications imply a milder disease. While Delta cases cause elevated pulse rates, low oxygen levels and the loss of taste and smell, Omicron cases seem to cause different symptoms: Fatigue, head and body aches, and occasional sore throats and coughs.

And if that’s the extent of it – what sounds like nothing more than a common cold – and if it’s so virulent that we all get it and, with that, develop antibodies against the underlying C19… mission accomplished. Problem solved.

It’s interesting that this variant was first identified in South Africa.

On a somewhat related noted, it’s interesting to note that for the most part, the entire continent of Africa bypassed conventional telephone lines. It just wasn’t worth it to wire the entire country. They missed out on decades of the benefits of telephones in every household… but they’re making up for it now. Cellular infrastructure has arrived and, with it, internet and apps and everything that comes with it. They missed telephony the first time around, but thanks to leapfrogging technology, are pretty-much caught up. They’re exactly where you and I are with mobile phones, and, given how much we pay for cell service around here, probably a bit ahead. They leapfrogged into the cellular age… and they may end up leapfrogging vaccines.

The pathetic vaccination rates in Africa (not because they don’t want it, but because it just hasn’t been made available) might quickly become as irrelevant as an old Bell telephone (you know, the old ones… the ones where you could deliciously slam down the receiver in frustration) – because the prevalence of a mild and very-contagious version of this virus might finally be the thing to slam it out of existence. Africa may immunize themselves out of the pandemic by simply infecting each other with a much milder strain. And if that turns out to be the case, it won’t just be Africa; it’ll be everywhere.

I sincerely hope I’m not completely wrong. It’ll take a bit of time to confirm (or shoot down) some of these assumptions.., but I think it’s fair to put out there that there’s a version of this doom and gloom that’s not so gloomy and doomy. Far from it. The news that initially sent the world into a panic and markets tumbling and airports shutting down flights… might turn out to be a significant positive turning point.

By |2021-11-29T21:50:52-08:00November 29th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, History|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |5 Comments
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