Numbers

February 24, 2021

It’s always good practice never to get version one point zero of anything… wait a bit, let them work the bugs out, let them fix what they got wrong. New car model, completely redesigned…? Maybe last year’s model is ok. iPhone update? Sounds good… but maybe wait a day or two till a lot of people have done it… just in case it “bricks” the phone. It makes sense.

A lot of intelligent, educated and well-vaccinated people with every intention of getting the C19 vaccine – eventually – had (and still may have) that level of uncertainty. That’s fair, though it’s turning out to be a concern that’s irrelevant to most of us because hundreds of millions of people will have gotten their shot before we do.

Would I have been first in line on day one to get the vaccine? Actually, yeah… I would’ve… but understand why many people would’ve wanted to wait a bit.

We’re well past that point by now. There’s a lot of data out there, and most of it is agreeing with what was expected, and most of it is even better.

And, for those that waited, now you’re on to version 1.1 or maybe 2.0… because the Moderna vaccine has now been modified to directly combat the South Africa variant. Those who had the old version can get it line for a booster down the road. Those who haven’t had it yet will get the new one… a silver lining of benefit to the cloud of having to wait this long. The irony, here in Canada, is that by the time we get them, we won’t need them – we’ll be enjoying the herd immunity offered by the rest of the world.

The arguments these days are all about whether we can actually end this pandemic, or whether it’ll turn into a ho-hum version of seasonal illness. COVID-19 may become just another version of coronavirus that never goes way, but is easily defended against via vaccine or treatment. Or, interestingly… the vaccines are so good that they may eventually eradicate it. We shall see.

… and, might I add, this is a much better discussion to be having compared to the one that was springing up a year ago… the “Can we even develop a vaccine against this thing?” That part of it has been answered, and answered well. Ask me next year about the questions we’re asking today.

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By |2021-02-24T17:03:34-08:00February 24th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |1 Comment
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February 20, 2021

Vaccines have been around long enough that now we are getting more and more real-world data. Forget the tiny samples extrapolated to the general population… these aren’t trials of a few select people, or Phase 1 or 2 trials. These aren’t good guesses. One recent study from Israeli data has a sample set of 500,000. I think it’s fair to assume that whatever those numbers imply, they’ll apply to everyone.

In summary, after getting the second dose and waiting two weeks, you have a 96% chance of not getting sick at all. You have a 99% chance of not dying from C19, even if you do get sick… because if you do get sick, it’s exceedingly unlikely to be a serious course of illness.

Those are the numbers people need to hear… and, around here, in B.C… perhaps more-so than other places. We are the number one province for disobeying orders from the PHO, and that’s worrisome, especially with Spring Break coming up. If we were all well on our way to being vaccinated, that’d be a different story. The issue is that significant numbers of people aren’t following the rules, and adding vaccine delays and more contagious variants to that means almost certain exponential growth in daily cases. We might easily be heading into the “Wow, didn’t see that coming” territory… except, now, we do it see it coming. It’s blatantly obvious, and it’d be unfortunate to see it all go to hell one more time.

Almost certainly, it’d be the last time… because by the time the next wave subsides, the science implies the virus would be out of gas… nowhere to hop to in any meaningful way; relegated to the nooks and crannies of rare illness that pops up in a while. But we’re at least a year away from that, and it can be a very bumpy road… a road where even if the numbers don’t blow up, we’ll be hearing a lot of constant whining: “Why can’t we do this, why can’t we do that… while at the same time we’re allowed to do these other things…”

These rhetorical questions are easily answered: Because the majority of infections are happening in completely-avoidable social settings. That’s it. If you could be trusted to visit someone’s house, but be outside and far apart and wear masks… go right ahead. Except, you can’t… because over and over we see examples of people saying to hell with it; my mental health is more important and I’ve had enough. I’m going to visit and I’m going to hang out and there’s nothing anyone can do or say to stop me.

It’s true… around here, there’s no threat of going to jail. There’s no threat of a fine that really hurts; it’s just a slap on the wrist. The consequences just aren’t there to serve as a deterrent, because the deterrent is supposed to be self-evident…. short-term pain for long-term gain. I (and many others) will tell you: “Stick to the program now, and we will all be out of this sooner.” If enough people listen, we’ll be ok… yet, people were disappointed that recently, restrictions weren’t lifted.

We could be back at the “hang out with 6 friends” thing soon. In fact, we could’ve been there right now had people followed the rules a bit better. No Yaletown rooftop parties. No games nights. No karaoke. At least, not yet. We’re still at the point where a few people can ruin it for everyone.

I’m not here to judge or tell you what to do. I am just here to tell you what might happen, and the only evidence I’ll provide is information that’s available everywhere. Look at places that are well-along the path of vaccination. Look at the places where they’ve eradicated the virus, and the militant steps they’re taking to keep it out. For us, presently, neither of those options are relevant… so… here it is again. I’ll repeat what we’ve heard from Dr. Henry a thousand times: It’s up to us.

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By |2021-02-20T17:03:00-08:00February 20th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , |0 Comments
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February 19, 2021

Two somewhat-related items as we head into the weekend…

Yesterday’s post sparked some interesting discussion; it was supposed to be about the difference with arguing opinions versus facts. When it comes to English or Political Science, there are opinions. When it comes to Math, there are facts… and just because the facts were taught incorrectly (or not at all), it does not negate their validity. The big difference between Math teachers and English teachers is that one has more “wiggle room” than the other. Or, should. Thinking back to elementary school, grade 5 to be exact, I remember this interaction… and it bothers me to this day. I am a big fan of good teachers (and have written about, and will do so in the future as well) – many I’ve experienced in my lifetime.

But school teachers… public or private / elementary or high-school… it’s always hit or miss.

On this day back in 1978, the English teacher who was now also teaching Math… asked the class something like “Of the numbers from one to ten, which ones go into twenty?”

Hands shot up and kids were called upon…

“Five!”
“Yes”
“Ten!”
“Yes”
“Four”
“Yes – very good”

And then I put up my hand and said, “Don’t they *all* go into twenty? I think you mean which ones go into twenty *evenly*”.

“What?”

“Like nine… it goes into twenty twice, but not evenly. Remainder two”

And instead of “Oh, well… yes, you’re right…”, what she said was, “Oooohhhh… boys and girls, looks like we have a little math genius in the room!” – which of course was met with derision and “Hee Haw” from around the classroom. Up yours, Mrs. T.

Hey, teachers… your kids are impressionable. They remember stuff like that. Here we are, more than forty years later.

And speaking of education, and possible lack thereof, the messaging around vaccines has not been great. There are people who “get it”, but they are not the ones that need convincing, explaining or educating. They understand, and they will get their vaccine as soon as they’re able.

The messaging towards the vaccine-hesitant has been awful, to the point of making things worse. Now, finally, we are on the cusp of seeing ramped-up production and delivery… and now the issue will simply be that people don’t want to get vaccinated… and when you ask an otherwise well-informed person why, you’ll hear things like:

“The vaccine isn’t 100% effective”
“It doesn’t work against the new variants”
“You can still be contagious after you get it”
“We’re told we still have to wear masks and socially distance, so why bother?”

Most of that has some truth to it, but that’s totally missing the point. Yes, 95 isn’t 100. It seems to work just fine against the new variants, but we won’t know for sure till we have some data. Yes, for a period of time, you can still be contagious… but after two weeks, almost certainly not. And, finally, yeah… we still have to wear masks and socially distance because we’re not all immune… because, guess what, we’re not all yet vaccinated.

But, for whatever reason, the clarity of the message gets lost with all of the more-effective fear-mongering… and, as a result, a third of the U.S. military have refused to get vaccinated. Some 60% of Ohio nursing-home workers have declined it. Ultimately, as per the latest poll, half of Americans would refuse the vaccine today… a number which is ironically higher in Black in Hispanic people; ironic, because they generally have a higher chance of getting the disease… and worse outcomes. Data has shown that two weeks after getting the second dose, your chances of dying from C19 are near zero. At worst, you’ll suffer what seems to be a conventional cold… but that message is not getting through.

This is the end-result of awful, inconsistent messaging from former leadership in the U.S…. but here in Canada, while the numbers are better, they’re still alarmingly high… probably because for people who like to see things in terms of a binary solution… good/bad black/white right/wrong… no matter how good vaccine outcomes might be, there’s always the caveat… it’s not perfect. Therefore, it’s useless.

The messaging needs to be consistent. It needs to be hammered home unequivocally. And it needs messaging from trusted experts, not politicians. Not English teachers posing as Math teachers whose attitude is to lash out at those that don’t agree.

At the end of the day, it’s all about education… and that needs to be happening a lot better than it is now.

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By |2021-02-19T17:03:09-08:00February 19th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |12 Comments
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February 17, 2021

There really is no better medium than social media when it comes to stupid arguments. And perhaps the epitome of stupid arguments are these reply-threads that discuss not masks or vaccines or politics… I mean, as misguided as some opinions might be, they’re at least based on some “fact” that someone has latched on to and decides to defend it, no matter what. There are certain personality types who simply can’t admit they’re wrong, and will simply double-down when called on their bullshit. There seem to be more of them these days, no doubt empowered by the former president of the U.S., who, incredibly, was never wrong in four years of power. That he had to descend to incredulous lows to defend his indefensible positions went from confusing to concerning to finally just amusing. Remember that sharpie-modified weather map?

On Facebook, I’ve stepped back from a lot of discussions because they’re not actually discussions; they’re just people trying to bury others with their opinions. Very few are actually listening… even fewer with the mindset that their opinions might even be changed. Just loud echo chambers where everyone either agrees and pats each other on the back… or disagrees, and roasts each other mercilessly.

But then… there are these things that come up for discussion, usually in the context of “Only 5% of people get it right!!” or “Even Einstein was fooled!!” Of course, it’s just click-bait… and it’s usually something like: What is 3 + 6 x 4 ?

They are usually more complicated than that, but that will suffice for my example. Some people will say the answer is 36. Some will say it’s 27. Others will come up with something else… and if you came up with something other than those two numbers, I’d like to hear what you came up with and how you came up with it.

The correct answer here is 27… because there exists an order of operations (you may have learned it as PEDMAS… or, depending where you’re from, PEMDAS, BEDMAS or BODMAS. In the U.K., it’s BIDMAS. No matter what acronym you attach to it, they all say the same thing… and one thing they all say, with respect to my example, is that multiplication gets done first; after that, addition. Accordingly, this example is 3 + (6 x 4) which is 3 + 24 which is 27. If you did this going left-to-right, you’d get 3 + 6 equals 9, and then 9 x 4 = 36. But that is wrong.

And that’s the thing… there are countless message threads with people arguing this, like it’s up for discussion. Like math can change with differing opinions. “Well, that’s the way you do it… but I choose to do it differently.” … or, “I was taught left to right, no matter what” or, even, “PEDMAS didn’t exist when I went to school.”

As infuriating as it might be to engage with an anti-mask or anti-vax proponent, at least they have their misguided facts upon which they can fall back. But there are no opinions when it comes to math… or, at least, there shouldn’t be. But there are, and the name-calling and bullshit is as strong as anywhere else… and, honestly, it drives me even crazier.

It also reminds me.. it’s not up to me to understand why some people refuse to accept facts. These aren’t convoluted, contrived, complicated theorems that take a lot of understanding to unravel. They’re just facts, and they’re indisputable. But people choose to “not believe in it”, because “science is just a theory” and scientists change their minds all the time, so they clearly don’t know what they’re talking about.

Wanna try to convince someone who “doesn’t believe in math” that they should get a vaccine and wear a mask? Yeah… me neither.

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By |2021-02-17T17:04:21-08:00February 17th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |8 Comments
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February 15, 2021

Given the prevalence of anti-vaxx insanity and the fact that this virus continues to mutate, chances are it’ll be around for a long time. Perhaps forever. But that’s not the end of the world, because measles is also around, and nobody worries too much about it. The vast majority of people are vaccinated against it, and even if you get it, there’s a well-known treatment plan that’ll lessen the symptoms and help you get through it.

Similarly, for all the talk we have about C19 vaccines, let’s not forget that a lot has been learned about treatment, and a lot of drugs have been (and continue to be) developed specifically for that.

Initially, some already-existing drugs were found to have some positive effects. Dexamethasone, Remdesivir and Baricitnib among them, with varying degrees of success. Therapies involving convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies have been found to be very effective. “Potshots” with other existing drugs, such as Interferon and Tamiflu, have not been so successful. Antibiotics, drugs used to combat gout, other anti-virals… the list goes on and grows daily, as more data is collected and analyzed.

Two recent additions to the list are interesting.

First is news from Israel, who have been leading the charge with vaccinations — over 70% (!) of their population have received at least one dose — they’ve developed a drug for use in moderate or worse cases, and the early results couldn’t be more encouraging. Thirty people entered the hospital in relatively serious condition, and thirty people emerged cured… twenty-nine of them within three to five days. The drug, EXO-CD24, specifically fights the cytokine storm, the likeliest C19 complication that leads to death. Good numbers for a Phase-1 study. Onward.

Second is the locally-developed and hard-to-pronounce Bamlanivimab, which is beginning clinical trials locally… though it’s already been used on more than 125,000 patients in the U.S.

The one-two punch of vaccines and effective treatment is what will eventually return the world to normal… when everyone is convinced enough that they’re unlikely to get it, but even if they do, it’ll be no big deal. Given where our minds are these days, that seems like a big leap… but such was the case before antibiotics showed up. We take antibiotics for granted… oh, a little infection, no big deal… take these little pills a few times a day for a week and you’ll be fine. A hundred years ago, that little infection may well have killed you.

One day, catching some variant of C19 may be viewed with the same sort of novelty as catching Bubonic Plague… it’s rare, it’s out there, but… most importantly… it’s treatable and it’s curable. Interestingly, we’re probably at that point today, at least from a scientific point of view. Further tests will either confirm or disqualify that statement… but, either way, today’s issue isn’t the science as much as it is logistics and distribution.

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By |2021-02-15T17:05:00-08:00February 15th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , |3 Comments
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February 12, 2021

As much as I found it boring, I used to jog a couple of times a week… initially on my own, at some point with a trainer… but I never really found it as engaging as cycling or skiing. It’s effective for boosting your heart rate, but it’s also effective at stressing your knees. And it’s more boring… the world goes by a lot slower than when you’re on skis and/or a bike.

To alleviate the boredom, I used to jog to different destinations all the time… take a different turn here and there, see some new sights… different houses, different construction sites, different shops. Engage the brain a bit as well.

And then I came up with something even better.

Imagine a map, and stick a pin on your home. Then imagine a little string tied to the pin… the length of which corresponds to how far you want to jog every day before turning around and heading home (assuming you jog in a straight line, back and forth). If you intend to jog 5km a day, the string should represent a distance of 2.5km…. because 2.5km in one direction, then 2.5km to get back home.

If you put on your high-school math hat for a moment, you’ll recall that the area of a circle is Pi x Radius squared… in this case, 3.14 x 2.5 x 2.5 which is around 20 sq. km… a nice slice of potential real-estate to take in.

But what if you double that radius? What if you run those 5km in a straight line? How much bigger is that potential circle? Close to 80 sq. km… 4 times more cool sights to explore. Of course, then you have to get home… so what I used to do is find a Car2Go 5km from here, reserve it, and jog to it… and drive home. For the price of the Starbucks coffee that I didn’t get instead, I’d just drive home. Sometimes, with little local demand for Car2Gos, they’d start piling up outside the house… till some Car2Go people would come along and scoop them all up. Unfortunately, Car2Go has scooped-up all of their cars in North America, so… so much for that. It’s just not the same with Evo.

You’d think jogging would be making a good comeback during this pandemic. I’m not sure if the numbers are up or down, but jogging hits all the positives of exercising in a socially-distant way. You’re outside, and you can easily avoid other people… either entirely, or certainly by finding 6 feet around them.

… which is why I found very curious this directive from UC Berkeley: No outdoor exercise till further notice, masked or unmasked. Huh? What do you suggest is better? Pack the gyms?

The data is exceedingly clear – you get this disease by being nearby other infected people and breathing in their infected exhaust. The nearer you are… times the longer you’re there… equals the risk… the more little virus balls you inhale, the worse it’ll be.

From what I have read, there have been zero documented cases of transmission outdoors… except in cases where people were in close conversation. Undoubtedly, it’s difficult to define — and difficult to claim — zero… there are half-inside/half-outside spaces, there are tents… but, ultimately, I think everyone gets it… and can figure out the risks associated with that they plan to do. Jogging all by yourself is zero risk… to you, and to others.

All that being said, there seems to be a bit of what’s going on around here as well… the acknowledgement that for a lot of people, when you give an inch, they’ll take a mile… so no initial inches can be given. “Now is not the time”.

I’m not sure where the phrase, “This is why we can’t have nice things” originally came from… it’s been around a lot longer than the Taylor Swift song… but it alludes to situations where a frustrated parent says it after watching their tiny little toddler smash something like a priceless Beatles LP into tiny little bits. You can’t blame the kid; what does he know… but anyone who’s ever had little kids knows… try to keep the “nice things” out of reach.

I’m reminded of that sentiment when, around here, we’re not allowed responsible gatherings, indoors or out… not because it probably wouldn’t be ok, but because the powers that be know all too well… that we’re going to take that nice thing… and break it. Best to keep it out of our hands to begin with. I understand it, and I respect it. I’m also not too happy with it. But I also can’t come up with any better alternatives, because I understand very clearly what we’re all trying to achieve. And at the risk of sounding like a broken record, if we keep doing what we’re doing… we’ll get there.

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By |2021-02-12T17:05:05-08:00February 12th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , , , |5 Comments
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February 11, 2021

A kind of funny story… back in 1968, parts of Chile were pretty disconnected from the rest of the world, and, more to the point, so were the people who were born, grew up, and worked there. For a lot of the workers there, they were born in small towns, and they remained in those small towns their entire lives. Some towns were only 40km from the coast, yet some of them, guys in their 20s, had never even been to the ocean. Accordingly, they weren’t too clued-in as to what exactly was going on in the world.

On June 6th, 1968, my uncle was in his office, sitting at his desk… also there was my dad… both of them discussing whatever. Then the phone rang, and my uncle picked it up… and it was a group of miners expressing their condolences… “We’re so sorry to hear the news”, they said, “It’s so sad, it’s so awful, him with his pregnant wife and everything…”

“What the hell are you talking about?”, asked my uncle.

“Your brother, of course.”

“What about him?”, asked my uncle, staring at my dad sitting across from him.

“Well, we heard he got shot and killed in Los Angeles yesterday.”

“That was Robert KENNEDY, you idiots! KENNEDY… not KEMENY!”.

Perhaps an innocent but somewhat amusing misunderstanding for some people who weren’t granted the benefit of the big picture.

But here’s something that’s not so funny… and it has to do with Robert Kennedy Jr… the aforementioned’s son… someone who certainly should have a good grip on reality.

He just got banned from Instagram, for promoting a whole bunch of anti-vax bullshit. But this guy is especially awful… because he lobbies Congress to give parents exemptions from state requirements that mandate vaccinations for children. He has an anti-vax Facebook page with over 300,000 followers… and yet… all of his children have been vaccinated. This is the worst kind of hypocrite on the planet… pandering to the masses; “elevating” themselves to the crowd they feel they need to reach. Vegans who secretly eat meat when no one’s looking. Environmentalists who throw all of their garbage and cardboard and food scraps into the same, landfilled-destined plastic garbage bags. Green Party members who drive 12-cylinder mega-fuel-injected super-turbo-charged Italian sports cars that get 2 miles to the gallon. Robert Kennedy Jr. They can all go to hell, pontificating their holier-than-though ideas while brazenly doing the exact opposite.

Speaking of vaccines, if you’ve been watching the bolded, inverse vaccination-percentage numbers near the top of the attached data, you’ll be disappointed to see that most of them went down. It’s because I adjusted the data… and because, for a while, all doses being dished out were first doses, and that’s what I was tracking. But now that the second doses are kicking in, it throws things off. The idea is to represent how many people have had at least one shot… not just simply shots divided by population… a number that doesn’t really mean much. Accordingly, the numbers have all gone down, and the more second doses that have already been injected, the bigger the change.

Well… not all. It was most interesting to see Quebec, the huge outlier… who have given out a total of… zero second shots. They’re really going all-in with their policy: Get as many first shots done as possible, and stretch that window for the second shot as far as possible and… hope fervently that enough doses show up in time when they’re needed.

Anyway, going forward, that’s what those bold inverted numbers mean; the percentage of the population that’s had at least one shot. B.C. is at 2.8%. Canada is at 2.5%. The U.S. is at 14.5%. For a bit of comparison… Israel is at 68%, the U.K. is at 21%, and Chile… even though they may not know the difference between the U.S. Attorney General and a local mining executive… is at over 7%, which puts them in the Top-10 in the world. Canada used to be in that Top-10, but we’re now we’re barely hanging on to our Top-40 position… sliding down the charts like a one-hit-wonder whose moment has come and gone.

We’re told that’ll change in the coming weeks. Let’s hope so.

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By |2021-02-11T17:03:27-08:00February 11th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |5 Comments
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February 10, 2021

I must admit, it feels good not to be writing about Donald Trump. Because now, I read the news about the guy and my first thought is always, “Who cares”. Washington will have their hands full with the impeachment circus, and by the end of it it’s highly likely he’ll be acquitted… but through the motions they go.

I find it pathetic that the Republican Party hasn’t got the internal fortitude to figure out what’s really important to them; some of them cling on to their has-been demagogue for the simple reason that there’s still an army of misguided supporters out there. What they perhaps don’t realize is that those aren’t fellow Republicans. They’re cult followers. Jeez, if the events of January 6th can’t convince you of that, nothing can. Or, of course, they *do* realize that, and don’t care. Which is really far worse, when you consider the implications. Either way, I look forward to it all going away. And, hopefully, not coming back.

Sifting past the pages of all that nonsense for something relevant to write about in the few minutes I have to do so, I found an interesting story from the CDC claiming that double-masking can block 93% of potentially infectious particles. That number varies, depending how well you double-mask and how well knotted it’s done… but it’s drastically different than single masking in the 40-60% range. It’s a far cry seeing that published and possibly adhered to, as opposed to the aforementioned has-been demagogue who spent a year telling everyone masks are useless. For those who like math, the extrapolation of triple-masking goes to 97% and quadruple-masking 99%. Beyond that, it’s 100% because you probably can’t breathe.

Yeah, wear a mask or two… it makes a huge difference. I look around with some envy at places that had these mandates in place early and effectively… places where two-week mandatory quarantines don’t have exceptions and you pay for it yourself and you don’t complain; those are now the places that have bustling restaurants and crowded stadiums and no mask mandates. There are indeed places on the planet that are back to normal. The U.S. completely messed-up their opportunity, but that was because of colossally crappy leadership, right from the top, and right from the start. We’ve done a lot better here in Canada, but now that we’re a year into this thing, it’s not difficult to make apples-to-apples comparisons. It could’ve been a lot better. In gambling terms, it’s called the “woulda coulda shoulda” – it’s what you hear from most frustrated horseplayers moments after the horses cross the finish line… I woulda bet the 6… I coulda bet the 4.

And yeah, we shoulda had masks everywhere… long ago.

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By |2021-02-10T17:05:17-08:00February 10th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |4 Comments
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February 9, 2021

Let’s talk about something else entirely… at least for today.

Like Covid-19, it’s invisible to the naked eye. Like Trump, it’s wildly volatile. Like both of those things, its future is uncertain, but there’s plenty of speculation. What I’m talking about is Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) was born almost exactly 11 years ago, created by an entity known as Satoshi Nakamoto. Nobody’s too sure if that’s a real person, or a group of people, and/or whether that individual, if it is one, is still alive.

The first time I heard about Bitcoin was some time in 2010… from a friend I’d formerly worked with… a very smart guy, one of the best Linux/network admins I’ve ever met. Smart guy, but nobody took his touting of Bitcoin seriously. This was late 2010, and Bitcoins were worth less than a $1. The following year, they started going up in value… all the way to $20. He was very happy. Then the price crashed back down to a few dollars again. He was not so happy. It all still felt like something not to be taken seriously… but that started to change as time went on.

In late 2013, the world’s first Bitcoin ATM opened up… right here in Vancouver. It’s still there… in Waves Coffee, on the corner of Smithe and Howe.

Very cool. I went down there with $500, plugged it into that machine, and bought 2.5 Bitcoins. And when you buy BTC, there’s no tangible evidence of it… but then again, there’s no tangible evidence of your bank balance, except for what your phone or computer screen tells you. You just assume the little numbers translate to value. Like cash or stocks or gold or anything else with a number that describes what it’s worth. Then I bought a coffee and some food with it; Waves was one of the first places to accept Bitcoin for payment.

I dabbled with BTC over the years; for a while, I had my own mining rig… but it wasn’t anything too sophisticated. In fact, it was computer motherboard and three video cards all crammed into a milk crate. That thing ran hot… and loud. I was selling most of what I mined as quickly as I could… BTC was $400 at the time… and that was the mindset; create $ out of thin air and lock it in. Obviously, in hindsight, holding onto all of that would’ve made far more sense, but BTC back then, at least in my mind, was simply a new-fangled digital currency to be used like any other. And like any other, it’ll fluctuate… but never appreciate to levels of insanity. You wouldn’t expect a Canadian Dollar to suddenly be worth $2,000 U.S.; this was no different. Eventually, I shut it all down. Mining BTC becomes more difficult and more expensive as time goes on. Doing the math on how much energy I was consuming in this increasingly-difficult exercise implied it was no longer worthwhile. The garage, where it had been running, became much quieter and colder.

Except… it was different.

The first evidence of that was in 2013 when BTC shot-up to over $1,000 a coin… and it was because of currency restrictions imposed in Cyprus, during a financial crisis. People there were frantically trying to get their money out. In the old days, you’d try to do that by smuggling out gold or diamonds… but if you can seamlessly tap-tap-tap here and somewhere else in the world, someone else does the tap-tap-tap and now has all the money (and, of course, that someone else can also be you)… and no financial regulator was in the way… well, great. Even better, even if the financial regulator saw that transaction go by, they have no idea who did it. BTC became the de-facto currency of the Silk Road marketplace, a dark web Black Market site for purchasing all sorts of illegal goods.

When the Cypriot financial crisis sorted itself out, the BTC prices came back down to earth, but everyone took notice. Hmmm… forget buying coffees and croissants… if this thing can hold its value, given everything else it brings to the table… hmm…

What else does it bring to the table? It’s secure. So far, nobody has figured out how to hack it, though many have tried. The general consensus is that it’d take a very long time for all the computer power in the world at present to do so. The infrastructure is secure and transparent. Everyone can know what every wallet balance in the world is at – but not necessarily know to whom it belongs. Transactions are verified in real-time by multiple machines around the world. It all simply works. And who’s to say what a BTC is worth? Well, who decides what gold is worth? Or a diamond? It’s simple… it’s worth exactly what at this moment in time, someone is willing to pay for it while someone else is willing to part with it.

But perhaps the biggest intangible, the one thing this particular commodity brings to the table that no other one does is… that it’s finite. Given how it’s designed, only 21,000,000 BTCs will ever be mined. Around 18,500,000 have already been mined, but, like I said, it’s getting harder and harder. The last one won’t be mined till around 2140, and it’ll take decades for that last one to emerge.

Oil, gold, diamonds, wheat, sugar, cocoa, pork bellies… the earth always provides more. Nothing is infinite, but we’re nowhere close to running out of those things… we can always mine, grow or breed more. But not BTCs. So what happens when you have a trusted commodity where supply is known to be limited? You’d expect it would appreciate in value.

At this moment, a single BTC is worth $60,000. That coffee and chocolate croissant I bought way back when for 0.05 BTC? It cost me $3,000 in today’s dollars. That initial $500 in BTC I bought (and is now long gone) would be worth over $150,000… but if that makes you go ouch, consider the very first BTC transaction ever… two Papa John’s pizzas… worth about $30… for 10,000 BTC. That is, in today’s dollars, a six-hundred million dollar pizza. Sorry, two pizzas.

A lot could go wrong with BTC, which would vapourize all that value instantly. Someone could crack the encryption. Governments could conspire to shut it all down. A better crypto-currency could appear, and all the value would flood in that direction. Or… it could continue to appreciate forever. Some people are saying a single BTC could be worth $500,000 within a decade. Given its recent meteoric rise, who knows.

People also wonder what’ll happen after 2140, when there’s no more reward for being part of the network, since mining will have stopped. But in the same breath, the answer is obvious. Not our problem… just like in 2140, perhaps we’ll all have fusion-powered diamond-makers in our homes, or do-it-yourself alchemy kits for turning old pennies into gold. Not our present-day problem.

For now, the world has a trusted, unique, ubiquitous and accessible form of wealth storage that seems to find a little bit more of legitimacy every day. Recently, Elon Musk announced that Tesla would be accepting BTC for payment. And that Tesla holds $1.5 billion in BTC, just as a part of a diversified investment portfolio. And perhaps that’s what a well-diversified portfolio looks like in the future… cash, equities, bonds, gold, real-estate, commodities… and now, also… BTC.

As far as my friend is concerned, the one who was into BTC so early in the game… at some point, he cashed it all in (whatever “it’ is), bought a boat, and has been sailing around the world ever since.

** Disclaimer: I’m nobody’s idea of a registered investment advisor. None of the above is intended as advice; just interesting info. Should you choose to dabble in BTC, do so at your own risk. Past returns are never indicative of future whatever yadda yadda…

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By |2021-02-09T17:03:00-08:00February 9th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |6 Comments
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February 7, 2021

Just a few brief words because I’m watching… the SuperBowl… and I’m not the only one. The data sources for Canadian vaccinations and hospitalizations are all down, and I’m guessing the IT guys are all busy till after 6. No worries; updated numbers tomorrow.

It’s funny watching and listening and reading the lead-up to the game, by all sorts of companies who apparently aren’t allowed to say “SuperBowl” without paying for the privilege… so it’s “The Big Game” or “The Championship Game”. If you saw some advertising and were wondering what the heck it was all about, it’s this.

For what it’s worth, similar thing… The Kentucky Derby was called exactly that for over a hundred years… until it became “The Kentucky Derby Presented by YUM Brands”… and I guess YUM paid a lot for that, because they demanded it be phrased like that everywhere. You couldn’t say Kentucky Derby without the rest of it.

Anyway, back to football… it remains to be seen what happens, but Tom Brady, the oldest (43) player to ever play in a Big Game/Championship Game/SuperBowl… may well be on his way to leading his team to victory. Or not. Still a half of football to go.

Either way, the secret’s out. Patriots coach Bill Belichick may be good coach, but he wasn’t the key. He never was. The Patriots were 12-4 last year, 7-9 this year. The Buccaneers were 7-9 last year, 12-5 this year. What changed? Tom Brady… hopping from the Patriots to the Bucs. Pretty simple… win or lose, you have to hand it to the guy: Greatest Of All Time

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By |2021-02-07T17:03:02-08:00February 7th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: , , , , , |5 Comments
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