Vaccine Archives • Page 13 of 15 • kemeny.ca | Website and Blog of Horatio Kemeny

November 17, 2020

Back at the start of the pandemic, when things were growing frighteningly out of control, there were a lot of charts and diagrams being published about the present and future potential “Time to Double”. When you’re dealing with exponential growth, the steeper the curve, the quicker the numbers double from where they are today. For a while, things got frantic. Then they got flat. Now they’re not so flat anymore, but certainly not as steep as they were back then. Which is perhaps why there’s less panic about these ever-increasing numbers.

But maybe there should be a bit more concern than what’s actually being seen. It’s harder to move bigger numbers. But that’s because they’re already big, and we’re not just dealing with relative numbers here. We’re dealing with absolutes.

If you look at B.C, it’s pretty consistent over the last week… a 3% growth of cases on a daily basis. That translates to a TTD of about 25 days… meaning, at the rate things are increasing, we will go from 23,500 cases to 47,000 by Dec. 12th. We’d be hitting 100,000 by early January. The demand on hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators will scale up proportionally as well. Today’s hospitalization and ICU numbers are the highest ever in this province. What’s also the highest, by a lot, is the 11 deaths over the last 24 hours.

I’m growing uneasy at the nonchalance that’s out there, potentially starting at the top. I’ll be honest, if I were in charge, commanding traffic, there would be some stiff measures being thrown into place. I’m clear on the reasons being given as to why that’s not happening; that the majority of transmission is taking place in private homes, by the nonchalant crowd who simply won’t listen to reason. And while that’s going on, restaurants and many other businesses are all open, because they have all the safety measures in place.

That’s all fine in theory, but for some reason I keep hearing about people catching this; people who are taking all the safety measures they can, and they simply get it, and they have no idea when or where or why. So yes, I would be heavy-handed and I would take a lot of flak for it and some businesses might fail, especially those who count on the holiday season to see them through the much leaner rest-of-the-year. But I would mitigate this with some intelligent guesswork with respect to what the future has to offer. Nobody likes to make announcements they can’t live up to, so we get ‘safe’ guesses. On the flipside, never underestimate the human potential when our backs are against the wall.

I have a bet with a friend that I think I’m going to cash, made back in March – me saying there will be a vaccine by the end of the calendar year; perhaps not one readily available, but the one we’ll all eventually get by the time they manufacture enough. But the public, not just test-subjects, will be getting jabbed with it by Dec 31st. And it’s looking likely that might happen.

We’ve all heard vaccines typically take 3 to 5 years. We’ve all heard this one will be super-rushed to get it down to 12 to 18 months. Here we are, 9 months into it… with a very real possibility that this particular finish line has already been hit. Way to go, humans.

Which brings me back to the point… a very viable finish line on the horizon, with a time period of “now till then” which is shorter than what we suffered through the first time. We’re hearing summer. We’re hearing by this time next year. And I’m saying it’ll be sooner than that… because it won’t be a magic switch. This will be like trying to get a car going, starting in 6th gear. You have to let that clutch out super-slowly, and you might damage it, but if you do it right, you won’t stall the car and eventually you’ll be up to speed. It’s a painful process to get there, but at some point, you realize your foot is completely off the clutch… and you’re driving normally. Similarly, as things slowly re-open for real, one day you’ll realize it’s back pretty-much back to normal.

When we locked this province down back in the spring, there were outcries of “overkill” and “our economy” and all that. But it worked. With a big, vast unknown future in front of us, we bought into it, we did it, and it worked.

I think it’s time to take that deep breath, suck it up, and do it all again… this time, with that finish line well in sight. Call me Captain Overkill – I don’t mind. I know a bit about risk/reward, and I’m not known for not taking risks… but that means carefully thinking about it and picking your spots. And this one, to me, is a no brainer. Everyone go home for a few weeks, close schools early, suffer through a very weird holiday season… and then things, sooner than later, will be better. A lot better. I promise.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-17T19:39:56-08:00November 17th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Business & Economics, Science of COVID-19, Sports & Gaming|Tags: British Columbia, Numbers, Second Wave, Analogy, Measures, Pandemic, COVID-19, Masks, Vaccine, Cars|0 Comments

November 16, 2020

Terrific news today regarding Moderna’s vaccine trial… an unheard-of efficacy rate of 94.5%. In the study, 30,000 volunteers received a vaccination. Half of them got the real thing, half of them got salt water. Out of all those volunteers, 95 of them got infected with C19. Of those 95, 90 had gotten the placebo, and 5 had gotten the vaccine. Of those 5 who’d gotten the vaccine, none had a serious case of C19. Out of the other 90 cases, 11 of them were serious, a number that lines up with what’s been seen with some consistency out in the wild. In summary, as expected with any vaccine… it doesn’t guarantee you won’t get sick, but it dramatically cuts down your chances. And, if you do get sick, it’s likelier to be a milder course of illness. And, added bonus, this Moderna vaccine doesn’t need extreme cold to be transported or stored. It lives at the same temperature (conventional refrigeration) as many other common vaccines.

It’s great news if it holds up, like nobody in that study suddenly gets super-sick and has serious side-effects or anything like that. On that assumption, Moderna is already manufacturing for production, and some of the public (those at highest risk) might be getting the jab by late December. Perhaps by spring, we’ll be seeing a much larger general rollout. If that’s the case, there will be one hell of a lot of incredible summer parties. I’ll be sure to host a few. You’re all invited. Well… most of you.

However… we’re not there yet… and, as every day goes by, we seem to be drifting further and further from it. We will ultimately hit that finish line, but the idea is that most of us get there, and in good health.

I’ve added a new row of graphs… a graphic representation of deaths, just below the corresponding case-counts, just to keep a little reality in the picture… because there is a double-edge to the sword that will ultimately slay this virus, and that is… that this vaccine’s existence, whether today or in the future, gives many people the idea that this is all almost over and we can just gently glide to the end, and it’s party time now.

This is exactly not the time to let our collective guard down. The virus is still out there, the weather is getting colder and we’re all going to be indoors a lot more. The steepness of case counts and death counts – see attached. The gently rising curve of death hasn’t hit the levels we saw back in April, but it’s not hard to see the trend. We saw how quickly it blew up last time; not taking the proper measures could lead to this getting far worse. It’s up to us to not let that happen.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-16T21:34:04-08:00November 16th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Business & Economics, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver|Tags: Pandemic, COVID-19, Masks, Vaccine, Second Wave, Science, Social Distancing, News, Moderna|0 Comments

November 14, 2020

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is tasked with keeping stock markets fair, clear, transparent and free of fraud. That’s their mandate, and they’re pretty good at doing so, especially these days when super-intelligent super-computers can keep tabs of everything that’s going on every millisecond, and can instantly flag irregularities. Getting away with it, whatever “it” is, is tougher these days.

The most straightforward type of stock fraud is when someone acts on insider information, and the most common version of that is someone inside a public company who’s privy to knowledge that the public doesn’t yet know. It can certainly be the CEO, the CFO, the CIO, the COO… whatever C-letter-O executive you can think of often has knowledge of the sort, but it’s usually not those people who try to pull a fast one. Those guys know they’re being watched, and they’re all already well-compensated. Any shenanigans that would be materially relevant to them would almost-certainly get caught.

No… usually, it’s an intern who runs across something left in the recycle bin next to the copier… who then calls her BFF and asks what she should do with this info, and the BFF texts her boyfriend who knows a bit about the markets. And that guy logs into his Ameritrade account, buys a few call options, and gets totally busted when the SEC flags his trades because it’s so ridiculously blatant.

But, back to the C-people… many of them are partially paid/bonused in shares, and what they do with their shares is scrutinized inside out. Which is why when they intend to buy or sell shares, they need to make it very clear and very well-known, usually in advance. And those filings are all available to the public.

Accordingly, on August 19th of this year, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla filed his intent to sell 132,508 shares of his company, should the share price hit a certain number. On November 9th, Pfizer announced that most excellent news, the one about the 90%-effective vaccine… and the spike in share price hit that number… and the order to sell was executed.

That part of it is simple, and that would be it… except there’s perhaps a troubling little footnote… which is what Bourla may or may not have known back in August. Indeed, the day after he renewed that order to sell, the company issued a press release confirming they were on track to deliver a vaccine candidate in October. But… the sell order had been in place from years earlier, and that was simply the timing of the renewal. And, the announcement didn’t have much of a relevant impact.

None of that will stop people from thinking something’s wrong here… and watchdog groups will call upon the SEC to investigate. The SEC may or may not dig into it any further, though what you’ve read above is pretty-much all there is to it. But… everyone agrees, even the SEC, that it doesn’t look good. Wearing white after Labour Day doesn’t look good either, but it shouldn’t send you to prison. It’s not illegal; just generally bad judgment… the same sort of bad judgement that may have been displayed by Albert Bourla in not pulling the plug on the transaction.

Bourla, who’s been with Pfizer more than 25 years, made over $18 million last year in salary, bonuses and stock allocation. While a lot of noise is being made about the $5.6M he pocketed in this transaction, it’s certainly not $5.6M out of thin air. He’s been earning those shares for a while. Those shares were around $36 before, $40 during the frenzy, now $38. This story is perhaps more hoopla than it deserves. 130,000 shares plus or minus $2 a share equals a quarter million dollars… for a guy who makes more than $18M a year.

On that note too – “buy on rumour, sell on news” – investors who’ve been following all of the these pharmaceutical and biotech companies… the thing is this: share prices move on unexpected news or rumour… and if news comes out that’s unexpected, good or bad, it’ll have a positive or negative effect. Expected news doesn’t move the needle, because that knowledge is already built into the price. We all know Pfizer is working on a vaccine, we all know they’re trying to get it done ASAP.

The unexpected news in this case was simply the “90%”, and all of the day traders who jumped on it and bought bought bought… might regret it, unless they’re going to hold on to it for a while… because shortly after, the price slid down again.

The reason is simple… materially, that 90% doesn’t change much. Pfizer is committed to making as much vaccine as they can, for any definable future period of time. The 90% won’t let them make it faster, nor will they be able to charge more because it’s “better”. The purchase contracts for the vaccine are already in place, and even if they weren’t, this wouldn’t affect it. It’s business as usual.

One thing though about the timing of the announcement… it came (very) shortly after the election. Pfizer knew that Trump would jump all over it and take credit for it and make all sorts of bullshit claims about how it’s all due thanks to him. As expected, all of that happened… but after, of course. Was that on purpose? Pfizer claims they’re simply going by the science and reporting things when and where it makes sense to do so. Perhaps that’s true. Or perhaps they knew, and they waited.

It’d be a pretty suitable FU to Trump, to be honest. Would it have altered the course of the election? Doubtful. Who knows. And, really, who cares. There are far more important things to worry about.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-14T21:35:48-08:00November 14th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Business & Economics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: Money, Vaccine, Trump, Science, USA, News, Pfizer, Business, Albert Bourla|0 Comments

November 9, 2020

Tonight… November 9th, marks the 82nd anniversary of an event known as “Kristallnacht”. If you don’t know what that is, here’s a brief summary:

On the evening of November 9th, 1938, the mobs took to the streets in Nazi Germany. Jews were assaulted, beaten, and dragged from their homes… which were then ransacked. Over 7,000 Jewish businesses were looted and destroyed. Hundreds of Jews lost their lives, many by suicide. Over 30,000 Jewish men were arrested and incarcerated in concentration camps.

The word “Kristallnacht” literally means “Crystal Night”, named for the piles of broken glass left behind. Indeed, if you were to try to find a “kick-off’ event for the Holocaust that ultimately claimed the lives of 6,000,000 Jews, this was probably it.

The German police stood around and did nothing to stop it. German citizens not participating stood around, many of them horrified at what they were seeing… but also did nothing.

Historians have been writing about, discussing and analyzing this event (and what led up to it, and what came from it) for decades. And every year, it is commemorated… with events where those who were there talk about their experiences, what they witnessed, how it affected their lives. Every year there are fewer of them… but it is important to remember it, to never forget. Those events are happening tonight, like they do every year… except, this time, via Zoom.

I was at one of these events four years ago, and it was more sombering than usual. Donald Trump had been elected the previous evening, and for many people, it was hitting a little too close to home. Nobody knew what lay ahead. Those historians were nervous; they’d seen this before.

Four years later, here we are… and I can assure you, the tone of this piece would be far different had we seen a different election result. I am not saying another four years of Trump would have led to something like that, but if something like that were being led to, we were in the midst of what it would’ve looked like. I’m sure we can all agree that if Hitler had been “un-elected” four years into his term, Kristallnacht, and everything that came after it, almost certainly wouldn’t have happened.

As ridiculous as they looked, dancing in the streets of Charlottesville with their Tiki Torches purchased at the local Walmart, the brown-shirts-to-be are no joke. That’s the “stand down and stand by” crowd, ready to follow their leader. That “leader” is on his way out, and he’ll eventually leave… flailing, kicking and screaming, firing people indiscriminately… like his Secretary of Defense today. Who knows what else he’ll try to pull in the next 72 days, but 72 is a lot less than 1,533.

I feel very relieved to not have to keep writing these “what if” pieces, because they’re tough to write and fill me with dread. Or, at least, used to. It’s like in one fell swoop, problem gone. And maybe you vehemently disagree that things could ever have gotten so bad. Perhaps you’re right. But now, all the conversations become hypothetical, and that’s a truly wonderful thing. And, to be clear, the underlying problem isn’t gone… there’s plenty of healing and plenty of fixing that needs to happen… but all of that starts from the top, with a true leader.

November 9th. November 11th. These are times to look back and remember, and an important part of remembering is learning; learning from what went wrong… learning so that it doesn’t happen again.

And they’re also times to look forward. It’s a time for optimism, and certainly that’s helped by today’s announcement from Pfizer, and their continuing study whose preliminary results show a vaccine that’s up to 90% effective at preventing C19. Maybe this is the one. Maybe this is close to the one. Either way, it implies it’s a solvable problem and we’re far along the path. It’s an appropriately-timed light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel announcement.

People have been telling each other this for a long time, and I’ve said it here many times… but it bears repeating, especially today: “It’s going to be OK.”

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-09T19:12:32-08:00November 9th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19, History|Tags: COVID-19, Nazi Germany, Vaccine, Racism, Genocide, Science, Second Wave, Pfizer, US Election 2020, Kristallnacht, Trump, Holocaust, Germany, Charlottesville, USA, Mark Esper|9 Comments

November 7, 2020

There’s that moment in “The Wizard of Oz” where everything goes from black-and-white to colour. It makes quite an impact…and to a great extent, for a lot of people, that’s how it feels today; a four-year journey of black vs. white, right vs. wrong, us vs. them… finally coming to an end. We are once again surrounded with colour. Isn’t it beautiful?

Nearing the end of that movie, Dorothy and her entourage finally come upon The Wizard himself… and pull back the curtain to reveal that he’s no wizard after all… just a fraud, pulling some levers. Far from a wizard… he’s just a failed showman.

But this is where the similarities end. The wizard gracefully exits; he leaves The Scarecrow in charge of Oz, with The Tin Man and The Lion at his side. A very elegant transfer of power. Then he gets into a hot-air balloon, and flies off to live happily ever after.

Our present fraud-wizard-failed-showman won’t be leaving quietly. The hot-air balloon would be a helicopter in this case, but on January 20th, there’s a relatively good chance Trump won’t be on it.

What’s becoming interesting is the method with which the rats are leaving the sinking ship. For four years, they agreed with, acquiesced to, and validated – his narcissistic venomous bullshit. Now they don’t have to. In many cases, these are people with similar personality profiles, so now what? They arguably played along because it served their purpose; stay on his good side or find yourself with a figurative knife in your back, exiled from the kingdom of Trump. That’s no longer the case. In fact, Trump himself has been pissed off for the last few days, wondering why none of those people are Tweeting their support for their soon-to-be fallen leader. The answer is pretty simple; they’re looking out for themselves at the expense of others… a lesson they learned from Trump himself. It’s time to jump ship.

What’s also not black and white is what’s going on here… it’s red… as in cases across the board in Canada… as per below, so… much… red. All rising… sharply. Red alert.

Dr. Bonnie spoke earlier today and imposed new restrictions, in place for two weeks, effective as of 10pm tonight, affecting social gatherings, travel, indoor group exercises and workplaces. And, in that order: don’t, don’t, don’t, and… follow the rules. Let’s see if we can actually stick to that for two weeks.

We are effectively back to late March/early April; it’s Déjà Vu all over again… and we managed to get this under control back then. And, of course, we’ve learned a lot since then… but don’t think that just because of that, and treatment options, and just because we actually have a vaccine around the corner, that we don’t need to take this seriously. We do… because the tornado that can sweep us away to a world of hurt appears quickly and powerfully. Just ask Dorothy. And yes, we all want things to be normal… and we’ll get there eventually… “there’s no place like home”… but unfortunately, just closing your eyes and tapping your feet a few times, and hoping… isn’t going to do it.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-07T20:35:23-08:00November 7th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Politics, Science of COVID-19, Movies, Music & Entertainment, Philosophy, Art & Literature, History|Tags: Democracy, Dr Bonnie Henry, Joe Biden, COVID-19, Second Wave, Vaccine, US Election 2020, Canada, Kamala Harris, Science, Trump, The Wizard of Oz, British Columbia, USA, Health Order, Narcissism|0 Comments

November 1, 2020

When we get new local numbers tomorrow, I’ll update them, and the little graphs that go with them.

But for today, here are some almost-up-to-date big graphs that show a good representation of what’s going on. The one on the left is the daily new-case counts, layered by province. They all start from a common point; not in time, but when each of those provinces reached 100 cases, back in March or April… and then show what’s happened since then. The one on the right is the same thing, but graphed logarithmically with the top red national line removed. It lets you see the present trends, and how they compare against Time-to-Double lines, as well as each other. The concerning one there is Manitoba, whose angle incline is greater than anyone else’s… but, to be clear, all of them are angling up.

Which brings us to the more relevant point… of last night, and the videos surfacing of what looks like a good old-fashioned Saturday night on Granville St. I’m actually not even sure what venues on Granville are open; I thought they’re all closed for the moment… which leads me to ask an obvious question – what was the point of gathering downtown? Like, to what end? Where are you going or coming from? I don’t mean it to sound like I’m some clueless old fart; this isn’t a rhetorical question. Back in the day, where we walked uphill 5 miles both ways to-and-from downtown, there was a reason. There was a club we were going to or coming from… Luv-a-fair, Twilight Zone, Graceland… it’s a longer list, but the point is – that there *was* a point. “Hey, let’s just go stand around on Granville St.” wasn’t a thing. And in the middle of a pandemic?

“What’s the big deal?”, ask a whole bunch of self-centered clueless people on Twitter and Facebook and everywhere else. People want to party. You can’t keep people inside forever. It’s just a flu.

Those yellow lines on the graphs are B.C. The graph on the right more prominently shows the upward bend that began about a month ago. Note that it’s a logarithmic graph… so things are actually a little worse than how they look here. How much worse can it get? Look at the brown Manitoba line, and what it’s about to do. There’s every reason to believe that we’ll be following a similar trend if nothing changes.

After posing a few questions yesterday and now reading the answers, I realize (as expected) that I’m very much preaching to the choir. Most people believe in science, and the logical conclusions which follow from it. You’ll wear a mask when and where it makes sense. You’ll get the vaccine when it makes sense, ie, probably not right away until you’re convinced it’s safe and not rushed to the public, but certainly will in due course. I agree.

Yet – not everyone agrees… and, as it turns out, this is indeed the simplest way to think about this… if you’re repudiating vaccines and masks, you’re basically saying you don’t believe in the science behind it… which really means you don’t believe in science at all. You can’t pick and choose scientific conclusions simply on the basis of what you want to believe. And if you think the scientific method as a whole is some sort of flawed concept, then there’s really nothing I can say to change your mind.

The answer to the ridiculous rhetorical question of “So what?” will be answered in the next 5 to 21 days as that golden yellow line creeps upward and to the right, its angle of incline slowly increasing.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-01T21:27:52-08:00November 1st, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver|Tags: Pandemic, Vancouver, Masks, Manitoba, Vaccine, Numbers, Science, Granville Street, Scientific Method, Second Wave|4 Comments

October 31, 2020

Halloween on a Saturday night – that used to be the ideal as a young adult… get all dressed up in outrageous costumes and party all night and have Sunday to recover. So much so, that when Halloween fell on a weeknight, it was always a dilemma… which weekend, before or after, for the “big” party?

Well, 2020 sorted that out nicely… number one, the parties are tonight, and number two, there are no parties. Or, there shouldn’t be. Or, they should be outdoors, if anything. Fortunately, it’s a beautiful day, and turning into a beautiful evening, around here; gather outside (safely) to your hearts’ content. This will be the last year to enjoy fireworks (legally) – I’m tempted to go out and load up on some serious artillery, perhaps one last gasp of memories from many years ago when we’d do epic fireworks… the sort where, with a friend, we’d have them all laid out, with a synchronized sequence and Pink Floyd blaring in the background; fireworks so epic we’d be finding remnant litter (those little carton tubes and pieces of plastic) 6 months later in the garden somewhere.

Here’s my bold prediction…. by this time next year, it’ll all be back to normal. But I will throw in a little caveat that’ll be sure to bother some people… it *could* be back to normal *if* everyone buys into the solutions, both present and forthcoming.

As I find myself discussing these solutions, these days often with strangers, I’m going to throw out there a few questions… and if you can answer “that’s me” to any of these, I’d genuinely like to hear from you – because I’m gathering opinions and their origins… and I’d like to try to understand your mindset.

Are you anti-vaxx but think masks are a good idea?

Are you pro-vaxx but think masks are unnecessary?

Have you and/or your kids been vaccinated, but you’re considering not taking the C19 vaccine when it becomes available?

Have you never been vaccinated, but would consider the C19 vaccine when it becomes available?

Feel free to reply publicly and/or feel free to PM directly. Neither I nor anyone else will ridicule or belittle you; quite the opposite. I am really interested in hearing diametrically opposed opinions, and I’d like to discuss them.

The more “out there” these writings reach, the more I hear from people whose opinions make me think, “How can you possibly think that? How did you actually reach that conclusion?”. And I’m now well-aware that those are the exact same questions they’re asking of me.

I’m happy to provide my evidence and thought process. Feel free to let me (us) know yours.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-03T00:02:10-08:00October 31st, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver|Tags: COVID-19, Fireworks, Vaccine, Opinion Poll, Science, Vaccination, Masks, Anti-vaxxers, Halloween|17 Comments

October 26, 2020

The “politicization” of Covid-19 is really quite interesting to observe. Perhaps the right word is “weaponized” – with the U.S. being the best example. Forget the reality of it; there will one day be “Covid denial” – it’ll be something that “maybe didn’t really happen”, was “exaggerated”, was “fabricated” for “sympathy” or “political gain”… the same nonsense every other flavour of denier likes to preach.

The discussion in the U.S. that’s now appearing is puzzling when based on reality, but perfectly in-line with the paragraph above… that, given that C19 is a political fabrication, invented to damage the presidency of Donald Trump, as soon as the election is over, it’ll all just go away. Win or lose, the whole pandemic will have served its purpose.

Of course, after November 3rd, and continuing into the future, long after all the ballots have been cast, guess what… C19 will still be here, numbers will be surging, and people will keep dying. I wonder what the deniers will have to say after that. Actually, there’s no need to wonder; we can just assume it’ll be as confusing and misguided as what we’re hearing now.

So, let’s ignore the complete bullshit, and talk a bit about the more subtle bullshit. The White House Chief of Staff, twice now, has basically admitted that there’s no plan to control the pandemic. This is not really news, though it’s nice and surprising to hear some honesty so close to the source of misinformation itself. Unlike his boss, Mark Meadows isn’t saying it’s getting better. That it’s turned the corner. That it’ll be over soon. That the vaccine is just around the corner.

No – none of that. All he’s said, and doubled-down on, is this: “We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas.”

To put it in different terms, what he’s saying is this: “We have been lying for a while, knowing full-well that the messaging and actions we’ve put out are not going to work, and never would have, especially given the polarized electorate we have today… so, we chose to lie, and paint a rosy picture… long enough to get re-relected. We know a lot of people will die as a result – deaths that could have been avoided. But, it’s more important to us to get re-elected, and if enough people are sold on the idea that we’ll have a vaccine sooner than later, we should be ok. And one day, we will… so… ”

The extension of this polarization will yield two camps of future thought; I’ve summarized one of them. The summary for the other school of thought is more simple: they will claim Trump and his administration should all be charged and tried for Crimes Against Humanity. They will have a good point.

Closer to home, the vaccine isn’t a hoax around here either… and we have numbers to prove it. The weekend update was nothing short of ugly. New measures will be put in place limiting crowd sizes, as we slowly slide backwards and see higher and higher numbers.

We’re certainly on the upswing…. but how far up will it go? I won’t attempt to predict the future, but looking at the numbers and graphs, you might be tempted to think that Quebec is flattening out their curve… and they’re perhaps three weeks ahead of us… so is it fair to think we are in for three more weeks of frightening growth before it flattens out? Depends how well we mitigate that risk. As usual, it’s up to us.

Three weeks from now is just after the Remembrance Day Weekend… hopefully that weekend update isn’t as startling as this one.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-02T20:54:14-08:00October 26th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19, History|Tags: Vaccine, Trump, Quebec, Numbers, Science, Data, News, USA, Future, Graphs, Mark Meadows, COVID-19, Pandemic|5 Comments

September 25, 2020

There’s that old parable where, suddenly, people can’t bend their arms. There’s plenty of food to eat, but people are starving… because they can’t reach their mouths.

The parable goes on to explain how, actually, it’s only the self-serving narcissists that are starving. The good people have figured out that all they need to do is feed each other, and everyone will be ok.

To some extent, we’ve been told that masks are sort of like that; you wear one, more than anything, to help others; to avoid you infecting them with your sneezes and coughs… and, as long as everyone is doing that to help others, we all benefit.

For a lot of my life, I thought catching a cold or flu was like getting pregnant; you’re either pregnant or you’re not. Similarly, either you have a cold… or you don’t. Certainly, you can be 7 weeks pregnant vs. 7 months, and it’s a very different experience… just like you can have a mild cold or a really bad cold.

The subtle difference in my mind was this: Once you have a cold, how bad it is depends on that particular cold virus. Some hit you really hard, while some give you little sniffles. Some years it’s really bad, some years… not so much.

What I didn’t understand was the whole concept of viral load. It’s not necessarily the severity of the strain of the virus… it’s also how much of it you got. The actual level of dosage, the actual number of little virus balls you inhaled… like, how badly you were infected… has a huge influence on how it affects you.

This is becoming very evident with the analysis of C19 patients; those exposed with high viral loads have a much more difficult journey. In fact, viral load at the time of diagnosis seems to be, on its own, an independent predictor of mortality.

All of this goes back to masks, and a recent article that pointed out something that should be pretty obvious, but perhaps hasn’t been made abundantly clear: If you wear a mask, you’re not only protecting others, but you’re protecting yourself. Your chances of receiving a lethal infectious dose are dramatically reduced if you’re wearing a mask.

Further to that – a very promising conclusion that follows from that is that by wearing a mask, you may well be creating immunity in yourself. As we know, a vaccine simply stimulates an immunity response… well, guess what… you may already have done that, in small doses. We also know that 80% of cases are asymptomatic, and that may in large part be due to the low viral loads that caused them in the first place. Perhaps the small amount you got from a distant sneeze. Or, perhaps, the small amount you got from someone nearby… but your mask took the hit, and all you got was 1% of the potential viral blast in your face.

And one final (also promising) conjecture… it seems that even tiny viral loads in your body may stimulate strong immune responses. By the time the vaccines roll out, you may already be immune… and only because you’ve been wearing a mask, self-vaccinating yourself in small doses.

I’m not sure any of this will change the minds of the ardent anti-maskers, for whom this whole issue is entangled with political (and other) agendas… but if you know any somewhat-reasonable anti-maskers who think it’s not worth it for medical reasons, feel free to pass this along. Or maybe to that “me me me” narcissist who doesn’t feel the need to benefit others, at the expense of their personal comfort. Well, guess what… it may benefit you greatly.

And for the rest of you reasonable people, just keep doing what you’re doing… and wear your mask with the knowledge that your little contribution to the greater good may actually be doing a lot more good than you think.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:08:41-07:00September 25th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: COVID-19, Masks, Vaccine, Fact, Viral load, Mind, Narcissism, Virus, Asymptomatic, Understand, Parable|17 Comments

September 7, 2020

Greetings from Whistler… actually, the drive back from Whistler… which will end up taking twice as long as usual. Maybe an accident ahead… there was a serious one a few days ago that sent 6 people to hospital, involving a Lamborghini. Yesterday, a Ferrari was impounded for going 189 km/h in an 80 zone on the same stretch of road.

Indeed, Whistler was flooded with luxury cars this weekend, as part of a charity luxury supercar weekend. No problem with that, but you Ferrari/Lambo/McLaren people might want to keep the speeds down to where you’re not likely to kill yourself, and take others with you.

The other thing Whistler was flooded with was… tourists. From all over the place… and I do mean, everywhere. Every continent, nation, ethnicity and language was well-represented, just like any other year’s final weekend of summer.

Yeah, I thought the border was supposed to be closed too. It certainly is, to most road traffic. It certainly isn’t, to airplanes. There’s never been a better indication that this will only really be over once there’s a vaccine. There’s no version of “here’s the right thing to do” that will get through to enough people. No social distancing, no masks, crowds in enclosed spaces.

The best we can hope for is that the message is getting through to enough people… so that things are manageable if they get bad. Given the nonchalance and self-centeredness and lack of regard for others I just witnessed, we might be in for a long homestretch.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:07-07:00September 7th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Sports & Gaming|Tags: Vaccine, Masks, Cars, Hope|13 Comments