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November 4, 2020

Yogi Berra liked to say, “It ain’t over till it’s over”. The more sophisticated version of the same saying is… “It ain’t over till the fat lady sings”.

That not-so-PC saying is referring to Brünnhilde, — usually cast as plus-sized soprano — who, after 15 hours of opera (German composer Richard Wagner’s “The Ring”, a 4-part mini-series) has a 20-minute dramatic finale before finally (and spectacularly) burning to death. A somewhat appropriate finale for whatever happens next.

And a somewhat appropriate comparison in that Richard Wagner actually has a lot in common with Donald Trump… numerous affairs, horribly in debt, and terribly racist. Hitler was a big fan. Trump might be as well, though I don’t get the impression that the president gets out to many operas.

So no, it’s not over, though it’s trending against Trump at the moment, and, as expected, he is fiercely lashing out, trying to hold on to the presidency. It was interesting to hear the commentary on CNN late last night, just before Trump spoke, the CNN panelists speculating on what Trump might or might not say. Do you think he’d actually come and question the integrity of the election? Do you think he’d threaten lawsuits? And do you actually think he’d come out and claim victory?

Come on… after four years of this, how can you even discuss it? Of course Trump came out, and did exactly all of that… and even threw out that he’d get the Supreme Court involved.

You know what… I hope he does. I hope he tries, anyway… because one of two things would happen. The first, and by far the likeliest, is that the SCOTUS will tell him to go to hell. Go away with your frivolous nonsense. Every single vote will be counted, period. And that would be a powerful and appropriate send-off to the man who, for four years, tried to stack that court in his favour. Forget the right-wing conservative-leaning court he left in place; he doesn’t care about that. He cares about himself, and counted on these people to save him. And they won’t. Or, at least, they shouldn’t. It would be a final and decisive goodbye, even after the near-corrupt and very hypocritical installation of the latest associate justice.

Or… once again, Trump fools us all and gets the SCOTUS on his side; these jurists who have spent their entire lives upholding the constitution suddenly chucking it all away for Trump. This is exceedingly unlikely, but it’s what would have to happen to somehow declare all votes after midnight invalid in Wisconsin and/or Michigan, but keep counting in places he needs… like Arizona. Of course, none of it makes any sense, but in that scenario… you’d have a corrupt president propped-up by a corrupt court. You’d have a corrupt Executive Branch, propped-up by a corrupt Judicial Branch… which would render the Legislative Branch useless. And at that point, I would agree you’d have to tear-up the constitution, because the U.S. as we’ve all known it is done. Then you start from scratch, once you’ve figured out how to get rid of King Trump; it’d be a nasty civil war because, like it or not, the military would be on his side. Some of them, anyway.

By the way, don’t think this doesn’t happen… the citizens of Chile very recently voted – with an overwhelming majority of 78% — to tear-up their constitution and re-write it.

The thing is… the Chilean constitution they’re replacing was created in 1980 by a military dictator. The new one will be written by committee, pretty much like the American one was written (and has worked quite well ever since) 231 years ago.

Biden is close… but it ain’t over. I can assure you, if Biden loses, he will smile, wave, and fade into obscurity, a long political career done. If Trump loses, he will not go away so quietly… and that’s where things get ugly… but, for everyone’s sake, I would certainly hope that even the most ardent Trump supporters, and his fellow Republicans… Pence, McConnell, etc… would respect the democratic process and support the result, whatever it turns out to be, including shutting down their irrational leader. If he’s voted out, smile, wave, and go face the music that awaits you. The voting wasn’t corrupt. The process wasn’t compromised. The United States constitution isn’t the problem.

It might take a lot of people and a coordinated effort to execute another well-known saying:

“Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke.”

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-05T00:03:50-08:00November 4th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Movies, Music & Entertainment, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Vote, Arizona, Chile, Democracy, US Election 2020, Joe Biden, Opera, Mark Meadows, Wisconsin, Brünnhilde, Mike Pence, Trump, Richard Wagner, Mitch McConnell, Politics, CNN, US Supreme Court, USA, Michigan, Yogi Berra|8 Comments

November 3, 2020

Rainy day today… good weather to stay in and watch something. I wonder what’s on tonight…

If your intention is to watch election results, here’s a three-paragraph summary of what to watch for:

By the time you’re reading this, polls on the east coast will have closed more than an hour ago… results may be trickling in… and watching what’s happening there will give you a good idea of where things are going. Florida, Georgia and North Carolina… if Biden wins any of those three, he’s almost certain to win the whole thing. If he loses all three, it probably implies he’s in trouble because it’d also mean the polls were “wrong”, and things are leaning strongly Trump’s direction.

If that happens, the next state to watch is Pennsylvania, where polls close an hour later. Unfortunately, that will be a slow count… and those results may not be known till later in the week. Without Pennsylvania, in the scenario above, Biden is in big trouble. He’d need Arizona, Michigan, and a bunch of other states.

And then there’s Texas… and that could drastically change things. Very heavy voting in Texas, and it’s a close race there. Chances are Biden isn’t going to win Texas if he hasn’t already won some other southwestern state, but who knows. And if Biden wins Texas, he doesn’t need any of the above. He needs what Hilary won in 2016 and that’s it.

That’s all factual, and perhaps that’s all that’s needed for now… simple, and free of opinion. If you know what you’re hoping for, keep an eye on that… and steer clear of the propaganda bombardment.

Of course, well-above and beyond all of that is the acceptance of those results, and that’s a far bigger question mark. The current president won the last election… but has spent four years claiming voter fraud anyway. There’s zero chance of him not disputing today’s results, no matter what happens… and I hope the U.S. is ready for that, and ready to handle it in a way that doesn’t lead to catastrophe.

In 1860, Abraham Lincoln won the election. He pleaded, in his inaugural address… “We are not enemies… we must not be enemies…” Unfortunately, many didn’t see it that way. Eleven states refused to accept his presidency, formed The Confederacy, and plunged the country into civil war.

The list of “What if…?” scenarios is too long to plunge into now. It’s at least comforting to know that voter turnout in the U.S. is the highest ever. People ultimately care, and are willing to do what it takes to have their voices heard. Many of those voices disagree harshly with each other, but that’s what democracy is all about. Let’s hope whatever happens today is the first step towards healing everything that needs healing down there… though it may be many steps on a long, bumpy and uneven path.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-11-03T18:38:28-08:00November 3rd, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, History|Tags: Trump, Florida, Politics, Pennsylvania, USA, Texas, Hilary Clinton, Election2020, Abraham Lincoln, Vote, Georgia, Democracy, North Carolina, Joe Biden, U.S. Election Night 2020|2 Comments

October 23, 2020

Last night’s debate was a lot more sane than anyone might have imagined. Kudos to the moderator, who did a far better job than anyone else has in previous debates.

Donald Trump, in poker terms, is down to the felt… the meager chips he has left were waiting for an opportunity to go all-in, and that’s what he attempted last night. Unfortunately for him, the hand he flipped over wasn’t too good. How it plays out remains to be seen.

Civility aside, the debate offered more lies than usual. Biden was off on a few points, but Trump was on a whole other level. We’re used to it from Trump, but that doesn’t mean we should let it slide. I’m not one of these people who usually screams at TVs or during movies, but I did find myself yelling “That’s bullshit!” or “That’s not true!” more than a few times.

Donald Trump doesn’t quite understand how ridiculous he sounds when he blames the high case counts on the fact that they’re doing a lot of testing… too much testing…more testing than anyone in the world, he claims… which isn’t actually true. On tests-per-million-of-population, the U.S. trails behind countries like Singapore, Denmark, Israel and Britain, to name just a few.

But that’s far from the point… because the logical conclusion of that nonsensical line of thinking would be to just not test at all – and then, like magic, no more cases… problem solved! In presidential terms, Mission AccomplishedTM – but it’s just not true, no matter how hard Trump claims it to be the case. It hasn’t just rounded the corner. It’s not almost gone. Things aren’t weeks away from being back to normal.

Indeed, his “It’s not so bad” claims are a little contrary to his “I’ve saved millions of lives with my actions” statements – neither of which are even remotely true.

Yes, it’s bad – how bad is it? Since the White House took over the numbers, it’s all a bit suspect. Case counts go down, but deaths (numbers not entirely in their control) don’t go down. Let’s ignore the case counts and go right to the guts of the matter.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics… The White House is reporting 229,000 deaths due to C19. Recent numbers released by those independent parties adding up the dead have found 300,000 excess deaths up to now, the vast majority of which can only be related to C19. That’s an under-representation of 24%.

This isn’t a trivial “What if” question to be answered, but let’s make it as easy as possible: What does Canada’s C19 response look like, mapped onto the U.S. population?

The math is pretty simple. Canada has seen 260 out of every million people die of C19. The U.S. number is 691 deaths per million. And if you map that 260 onto the U.S. population, you get 86,300 deaths… instead of 300,000 (or 229,000, if you go by the strictly defined death count).

Either way, that’s a range of 143,000 to 214,000… so let’s call it somewhere in between: 178,000 Americans… that’s about how many have needlessly died up to this point, thanks to the president’s refusal to mandate masks, enforce lockdowns, and impose social distancing and responsible behaviour.

He couldn’t bring himself last night to admit he’s wrong, and why would he? It’d be admitting he’s been wrong for a very long time. Easier to blame everyone else. And for those who still feel they’ll be voting for Trump, I think it’s now the same sort of thing; if you admit you’re wrong now, there’s some version of you that needs to admit you’ve been wrong all along… and hey, perhaps you’ve never felt you’re wrong and never will. No worries; nobody is trying (or able) to change your mind.

But there are a lot of those undecideds out there trying to make heads or tails of it all… and it looks like this election may come down to what they ultimately decide. If nothing else, perhaps it’s best to go with the guy who lies less. A lot less.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-23T17:19:50-07:00October 23rd, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19, Sports & Gaming|Tags: Canada, Democracy, United States, Poker, Denmark, Debates 2020, Singapore, Israel, COVID-19 Testing, United Kingdom, Vote|0 Comments

October 22, 2020

A couple of days ago, Donald Trump gave an interview to 60 Minutes. A couple of people, just sitting down for an interview. One was articulate and well-prepared. The other was not.

It didn’t go well for Trump, because Leslie Stahl pressed him on questions to which she wanted answers, and his constant deflection, and then bringing up irrelevant topics, did not deter her. A couple of times, it devolved to “You’re lying, no I’m not, yes you are, no I’m not.” Trump wasn’t happy, and eventually stormed out, like the kid taking his soccer ball and going home, claiming nobody ever passes it to him.

A couple of hours ago, Trump posted the 37-minute raw footage of that interview onto Facebook. A couple of minutes ago, I finished watching it… and, while still fresh on my mind, here are a couple of thoughts about it.

First of all, there was nothing unexpected. Trump interrupted and deflected and made things up – his usual. It troubles me that a lot of people will see this as a “win” for him – Donald just being Donald, Donald not caving to the evil fake news media, and so on. What’s troubling is everyone who still thinks this is ok presidential behaviour. It’s far from it, but four years of it has jaded us all. Half of the people are like, “RahRahRah Go Trump MAGA!!!” and the other half are resigned to “This is just how it is, for now.” Neither should be acceptable, but here we are.

Tonight, it will be another couple of people who will sit down to “discuss”, when Trump and Joe Biden will sit down in the last presidential debate before the election. The moderator will have a “mute” button at their disposal, but I’m not entirely sure how that might play out. Trump’s mic might get cut, but that won’t stop him from continuing his extemporaneous (adj. spoken or done without preparation; impromptu) bullshit. It might be disjointed and difficult to watch, even more than last time. And let’s remember, this is his last hurrah. His last stand, his last opportunity to make an impression. This is the last round of a long and bitter boxing match, and Trump is behind on points. He needs a knockout, and he will come out swinging wildly and relentlessly. It will be an ugly couple of hours.

In a couple of days, we here in B.C. go to the polls. I sincerely don’t care for whom you vote… but I’d really like it if you did. Stick with what you believe… and put an X next to it.

In a couple of weeks, the U.S. goes to the polls. I’m neither an American citizen nor a U.S. resident, so you’d think I wouldn’t care. Maybe I should care about it as much as some farmer in Nebraska cares about whether it’s Horgan or Wilkinson.

Yet… I do care, for more than a couple of reasons… but since I’m trying to keep these columns down to a couple of minutes, we’ll have to pick it back up in the future. Maybe in a couple of days.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-22T23:00:12-07:00October 22nd, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics|Tags: Democracy, Joe Biden, Leslie Stahl, TrumpInterview, Trump, Polls, Election2020, Debates2020, Vote, 60 Minutes, BC Provincial Election 2020|0 Comments

October 20, 2020

So, I did something today I haven’t done in years… I voted. It was as seamless and easy as I thought, and as I promised recently. In and out in five minutes.

Watching these two elections is like watching the same sport, but in two totally different leagues. Like, there’s FIFA – and their World Cup, every four years… and the whole planet stops and watches soccer for a couple of months. FIFA… with its controversies and corruption and racist scandals. And, as usual, every four years, there’s a U.S. presidential election… and the entire world is watching… and it’s also full of corruption and racism and controversy.

Then, there’s the B.C. Soccer Association. I’m far more familiar with that one, having participated in it as a kid… and, of course, also living within the jurisdiction. And every once in a while, B.C. has an election, and nobody outside of our provincial borders cares. The rest of the country pretty-much couldn’t care less. And it’s all relatively peaceful and harmonious, just like playing soccer around here used to be… with the exception of an elbow to the head once in a while.

FIFA and the BCSA have a couple of things in common… one, they’re both soccer, though at significantly different skill levels. And two, they were both founded around the same time – ages ago, in fact… in 1904.

The two elections have exactly one thing in common; they’re electing people into leadership roles. And that’s where the similarities end.

At the local community center, no armed militia. No 10-hour lineup. Nobody intimidating me. Nobody setting the ballot box on fire.

As I said, take advantage of it. We are living within a framework of peace and freedom that’s rare; history implies us to be in a bit of a bubble around here, and while it lasts (hopefully for centuries, but, as we can see… things can fall apart pretty quickly)… let’s take advantage of it. Set an example… for yourself, for your kids… and in honour of those who went through a lot to make sure we’d have this right… and vote.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-20T22:10:42-07:00October 20th, 2020|Categories: Politics, Life in Vancouver, Sports & Gaming|Tags: FIFA, BCSA, Election2020, Vote, Democracy, BC Election 2020, British Columbia, Soccer|0 Comments

October 17, 2020

We are exactly one week away from the election… no, not *that* election – that one is 17 days away and approaching quickly… but I’m talking about our local Provincial election… and all I have to say about it is… vote. Just go out and vote. You don’t have to wait 10 hours in line, like in some attempted-voter-suppression ridings in the U.S.

Around here, if you haven’t (safely and conveniently) already mailed it in, you can vote in person. It takes 2 minutes, especially if you vote early and don’t wait until next Saturday. Advanced polls are already open, will be open throughout the weekend, and are around until Wednesday. They are virtually empty most of the time.

It wasn’t that long ago that more than half the people reading this post wouldn’t have been allowed to vote… due to race or gender or some other discriminatory reason. But a lot of people went through a lot of trouble to grant you the right… so the least you can do is exercise it.

And if you’re so out of tune that you’re not even sure what’s going on nor who to vote for, simply Google “BC election cheat sheet” and read that article… it’s as good a starting point as any, and you can walk into that polling booth armed with some real knowledge and ownership that you’re putting you vote toward ideals in which you believe.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-17T19:04:37-07:00October 17th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Vote, BC Provincial Election 2020, Democracy|0 Comments