August 2020 • Page 2 of 4 • kemeny.ca | Website and Blog of Horatio Kemeny

August 21, 2020

It would make sense, once in a while, to update what’s going on in the rest of the country… not just the “Big 4”.

BC, AB, ON and QC collectively make up 97% of the known C19 cases in Canada… and 99% of the deaths (yes, surprising)… but there are another 6 provinces and 3 territories to account for, so let’s see what’s been going on…

Saskatchewan has had around 1,600 cases and 22 deaths. They were holding things pretty flat, but things have taken a bit of a sharper turn upwards since mid-July. Their recent new-cases-per-day number is in the low teens.

Manitoba has had a total of 830 cases and 12 deaths. After an initial spike in April which was effectively squashed, things were quiet until recently, where the daily new-case counts have suddenly gone from zeroes and single digits to 30+.

Newfoundland had their big spike in April as well, but have squashed it into oblivion. They’ve recorded only 3 deaths, and have seen a total of less than 10 new cases since July, all of which are resolved. Two cases in August and zero presently active.

Turning to the Maritimes, Nova Scotia’s big April spike tailed off in May and it’s been quiet ever since. Very few new cases… less than 10 in August, and only 5 active. They’ve recorded 64 deaths in total.

New Brunswick has had 188 cases, most of them in April. They’ve recorded 2 deaths, and presently have 8 active cases… from around 20 positive tests in August.

PEI has seen very few cases (44) overall… and zero deaths. Although having seen no new cases since early July, they managed to find 8 in August, 4 of which are still active.
The Yukon is looking very good, especially given the flow of Americans to/from Alaska. They’ve only had 15 cases since day one, all of them recovered, and zero deaths. From May to today, less than 5 positive tests, zero active cases.

The Northwest Territories has seen 5 cases… all from back in March and April. No deaths, and zeros across the board since then.

And finally… the appropriately named Nunavut… because as far as C19 is concerned, they’ve had… none of it. Not single case, ever. And by the way, not because they’re not checking… they’ve administered over 2,000 tests… which may not sound like a lot, until you remember that their population is only 40,000.

And if that’s not enough Canadian content for you… the Whitecaps are playing Toronto F.C. at 5pm and the Canucks are playing The Blues at 6:45pm. And, of course, the weather… cloudy, sunny periods, chance of rain… ahh, just like the old days. Beauty, eh.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:44-07:00August 21st, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Sports & Gaming|Tags: Prince Edward Island, Northwest Terrotories, COVID-19, Deaths, British Columbia, Population, Remember, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick|5 Comments

August 20, 2020

Kind of a blah day with the weather, and also a blah day with the numbers. Nothing too encouraging… and nothing too different than what we’ve seen recently.

For what it’s worth, sometimes “Blah” is ok. Blah weather in this case means some much-needed rain. Blah numbers mean at least things aren’t spiraling out of control.

And for me, just a day of long meetings and phone calls… which I can summarize lucidly and succinctly with one word: Blah.

Maybe tomorrow’s weather will be better. Maybe tomorrow’s numbers will be more encouraging. And almost certainly, tomorrow’s post will be a little less…. Blah.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:45-07:00August 20th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Life in Vancouver|Tags: Numbers|5 Comments

August 19, 2020

When I was a little kid, we took a family trip to Britannia Beach and did the tour of the mine… which I highly recommend. Every aspect of that Britannia Mine is impressive. These days the museum has been re-done (they did extensive upgrades just before the 2010 Olympics)… and there is plenty to see and do.

One thing you could do back then (and still can today) is pan for gold.

They had a little fake river set up, and you’d take your pan and sift through the sand, and maybe find something. Indeed, you’d always find something because it was a tourist trap and they wanted you to leave happy… so for $5, you’d probably walk away with 50 cents worth of gold flakes that they’d salted the sand with.

For what it’s worth, panning for gold is a very Zen thing to do. Whenever I find myself on the banks of a river, I wish I had a pan with me. I really should throw one in the car, just in case. I’m unlikely to ever actually find anything, but… you know, it’s the journey, not the destination.

So… those many years ago, once I’d finished panning, the guy in charge fished out the few specks of gold I’d found and put them in a little clear plastic vial… full of water, and my little gold.

My father – the mining engineer – always had with him a couple of little gold nuggets that he had taped inside his wallet. Just something cool to carry around. One of them was perhaps half the size of a penny, and he took it out and put it in the vial. “There, that looks better”, he said.

The guy running the panning station was pretty amused, and they had a good laugh and talked gold for a bit… and, as they were talking, a busload of Japanese tourists showed up. They began looking around, and one came over to see what we were up to. The guy explained the whole panning-for-gold thing… and then my dad showed him the vial.

This tourist looked at the vial with great astonishment, and yelled out something in Japanese… which brought over more people, all of them looking at the vial with excitement. And then… they all wanted to pan for gold. There was only space (and pans) for maybe 10 people, but now there was a whole line up. My dad (and, for sure, the guy running it) were greatly amused.

So many metaphors and sayings you could attach to this little story. Certainly, the first one that comes to mind is… not everything that glitters is gold. The irony, of course, is that in this case, it literally was gold… but still, not the gold you’d expect. Pay attention to where the gold comes from. Pay attention to what you’re being shown. Be careful what you believe. I’m pretty sure none of those Japanese tourists walked away with anything close to what I had in my little vial. I wonder how many of them felt hoodwinked.

Yes, it’s election season down south, and there will be a lot of glittery golden messages being thrown around. They’ll look and sound so big and shiny and impressive. My American friends… and I realize the vast majority of people reading this are actually Canadian, but to those it reaches… like those Japanese tourists who probably didn’t go back to try a second time…don’t get hoodwinked. Once was enough.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:45-07:00August 19th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Sports & Gaming, Space & Astronomy|Tags: South, Space, Cars, American, Mind|12 Comments

August 18, 2020

Here’s an interesting coincidence… the adult human body has 206 bones; the earth has 206 sovereign nations. If you were to map each bone to a country, what would that look like? For example, I imagine all those little wrist bones might relate to all those little South Pacific Island Nations. Few people really know what’s there or what they’re called or what function they serve… but they’re a very relevant part of the bigger picture.

But let’s worry about what’s more important; the entire human body doesn’t work well without a solid, healthy backbone. You could say the same about the geo-political stability and general health of the entire planet.

There are 33 vertebrae in the human body, so we hopefully have 33 solid countries inhabiting this planet which, to some extent, the rest need to be able to rely upon… because the whole thing falls apart, or, at least, is in great pain… when those 33 are out of alignment.

There is no dispute what 33 bones make up the human backbone, and while there would be discussion as to what countries round out the bottom of the list, the top of that 33 would be pretty straightforward; all of North America, most of Europe, some of South America… the big players in Asia, perhaps a few in Africa… etc.

Indisputably, the U.S. would be near the top. There was a time in the late 1940s where, without a doubt, they were number one. They’re still top 5, probably top 3… but here’s the thing; they’re presently in pain. Like with a fractured vertebra, and the discomfort that causes. A pain we’re all feeling.

Back problems have treatment, but it’s not always straightforward. You can go visit your local friendly physiatrist or chiropractor or rheumatologist or whatever it might take. There’s a specialist out there who’s very familiar with what’s causing your back pain, and she’ll do what she can to fix it.

But, here’s the thing… if you’ve been visiting the same medical specialist for almost 4 years, and your pain not only hasn’t gotten any better, but it’s gotten notably worse… well, perhaps it’s time to move on. Even though you were told by others that this specialist was terrific, tremendous, the best ever… it may be that you need to reach your own conclusions. Your health and well-being depend on it. And, as per above, the whole world’s as well.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:45-07:00August 18th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: Country, Relevant, South, Work, Imagine|9 Comments

August 17, 2020

By popular demand, and because their numbers are very relevant to the overall picture, please welcome Alberta to the party. As you can see, they now get their own 4 columns and graph.

Alberta had that awful last two weeks of April… then things settled down for a while, until mid-July… when they took a turn for the worse. They’ve since started to slow down… sort of… their numbers jump around a lot, but at least they seem to be trending downward. Those graphs can be a bit misleading, because the scales are all different. If you were to overlay B.C. and Alberta, pretty much all of B.C. fits “under” the Alberta activity. Their down-trending case counts are similar to B.C. numbers these days… so I guess we’ll see where things go.

From a “trend” point of view, the B.C. graph really looks awful in comparison to the others, but it’s worth noting the Y-axis. We still have some wiggle room… our numbers are good if you compare things, simply apples-to-apples. Saturday’s 100 new cases was the worst day we’ve ever had… but our cases and deaths per 1M of population continue to be way ahead of other provinces.

There will be more to say about this in the near future; we're using up all the "goodwill" we earned leading up to this… and while it's not too late, everyone needs to take some responsibility… for how we got here, and… more importantly… where we go from here.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:46-07:00August 17th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: British Columbia, Future, Alberta, Numbers, Deaths, Population, Relevant|5 Comments

August 16, 2020

Update…

Today was supposed to be a socially-distanced backyard get-together with some good friends… which went sideways shortly before they arrived, when the dog evidently swallowed a wine cork. We rushed to the vet, but the x-ray couldn’t see anything… and while they were about to prep him for an endoscopy, the friends arrived and started trying to help in crawling around the garden looking for it “just in case”… and found it. Well-chewed but not swallowed. So now we take the pup home with a huge wave of relief… and since today there are no B.C. numbers anyway, let’s forget the numbers and charts till tomorrow. Instead, you get a picture of me and this bestest boi.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:39:33-07:00August 16th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Our Dog|Tags: British Columbia, Numbers|40 Comments

August 16, 2020

No update for the moment (will post the graphs and data later)… dealing with a doggy vet emergency ☹️

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:47-07:00August 16th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Our Dog|Tags: Data|7 Comments

August 15, 2020

No numbers here in B.C. today or tomorrow… so notwithstanding the famous “lies, damned lies, and statistics” quote… I’m going to intelligently extrapolate some numbers… and will correct them on Monday. Until then, both our local and national numbers are just good guesses.

The average new case count in B.C. over the last 5 days averages to 67, so let’s just go with that. For what it’s worth, one standard deviation would make it plus or minus 21 (so somewhere between 46 and 88 new cases). Actually, the 90% confidence interval (15) defines the potential range as between 52 and 82… so it’ll be interesting to see what things look like by Monday. If we’re within this range, we’re sort of stable. If we’re growing… well, I guess we’ll know that too. Take it all with a grain of salt. And that’s enough math for a Saturday.

It’s also enough writing for a Saturday, because it’s a beautiful day and I’m going to take advantage of it… but it seems like a good opportunity to plug the blog where all of these posts are going, in case you feel like you missed something. If you visit www.kemeny.ca and click on the red seal, everything I’ve written here recently (like, every single day since March 17th) can be found there.

Hope you’re enjoying this beautiful day… in an appropriately-masked socially-distanced and well-sunscreened sort of way.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:47-07:00August 15th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: British Columbia, Numbers, Hope, Math|6 Comments

August 14, 2020

Here are some sets of numbers: 84, 87, 92. Or how about 78, 78, 104. Or maybe 85, 95, 95.

What are these numbers? They’re new case counts for Quebec, Ontario and B.C… for today, and for the last couple of days. Which is which? Well, it doesn’t matter… and that’s the point… because we here, with our 5 million in population, are seeing the same sorts of new-case numbers as our fellow provinces with populations of 8.5 million and 14.7 million.

Ce n'est pas bien. 不是很好。Isto não é bom. ਇਹ ਚੰਗਾ ਨਹੀਂ ਹੈ. No está bien. これは良くない。Hindi ito maganda. Ez nem jó. این خوب نیست. Questo non è buono. Αυτό δεν είναι καλό. Dit is niet goed. זה לא טוב. Tämä ei ole hyvä. Das ist nicht gut. यह अच्छा नहीं है।Bu iyi değil. Dette er ikke bra. Điều này không tốt.

This is not good.

If Google Translate knew the Sḵwx̱wú7mesh language, I’d have written it in that as well. As it is, I’m sure I missed a few key languages… we’re a very diverse group up here… but these days, we clearly have something very much in common, no matter how you spell it out… we are headed in the wrong direction, after so long of doing it right.

I really don’t want to see these numbers keep climbing, and neither do you, because at some point, they start translating into hospitalizations and ICU admissions and deaths. And lockdowns and isolation and now… you know, it’s not Spring. It’s not chilling and crafts and making bread and Tiger King and reflection. Everyone has had enough… but we haven’t yet done enough, and we risk slipping back and giving up everything we achieved. Quitting the race as you approach the finish line is worse than not having run the race to begin with. Let’s not let it happen. There is that finish line, and we are actually getting closer to it… but we will keep pushing it back if we keep acting irresponsibly. That is the message, no matter in which language you need to hear it.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:47-07:00August 14th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: Numbers, Deaths, Population, Quebec, Ontario|5 Comments

August 13, 2020

There was an interesting battle going on during WWII, in the skies above England… and no, I’m not talking about the RAF vs. the Luftwaffe…

Back then, the British launched a very ambitious operation. They dropped thousands of homing pigeons behind enemy lines. The pigeons were in little crates, which, besides the bird, contained paper, and pen and a canister. Whoever found it was asked to fill out the questionnaire, roll it into the canister, attach it to the pigeon… and let it fly home, back to England, with the information. Sixteen thousand pigeons were dropped over France, Holland and Belgium. Something like 10% of them came back, many with useful information, detailing what life was like under German occupation, and indicating what they could about German troop movements. Some of these pigeons were so successful, over numerous trips, that they were decorated with medals. One directed a rescue crew to where a British bomber had ditched in the ocean. Another one saved more than 1,000 lives when it successfully delivered a message that a certain town had been re-captured by the British… a town that was about to be bombed.

The Germans quickly discovered this was happening, and started planting pigeons of their own, with a bit of a different questionnaire (and a pack of British cigarettes, to make it look legit), trying to sniff out local patriots to the allies.

Above and beyond that, the Germans had a little army of their own, trained Hawks and Falcons, whose job it was to take down the British pigeons. How has this not been made into a movie?

Our hero, the British pigeon, already battered and mangled, trying to fend off numerous attacks, struggling to get home… bleeding, missing the tip of one wing… suddenly spotted by a German Hawk… who, with his little goggles and leather helmet (emblazoned with a swastika) swoops down for the attack.. and just as he’s about to make contact, our hero pigeon crosses into British airspace where the hawk is instantly taken down by a sniper from MI14. Yes indeed, the British Secret Service set up a detachment, whose job it was to drive up and down the coast, monitoring bird activity and shooting down those killer German birds.

It’s an interesting little story, detailing one particular battle — amongst a sea of other battles — that constituted the Second World War. A small but important battle.

And that’s how it is with all battles, big or small. It’s not just one big fight. It’s lots of little ones, many of which we’ll never hear about… whether we’re fighting a World War, a virus, or an election… etc etc.

It’s something to consider for the near future, because lots of battles are heating up, and some of them, big and small, are going to get ugly. It’s important to consider their part in the bigger picture, not just the individual pieces… because in this era of self-serving propaganda and misinformation, many of these battles are, as they say… for the birds.

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By Horatio Kemeny|2020-10-08T01:09:48-07:00August 13th, 2020|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report|Tags: France, United Kingdom, Virus, Future, Germany, Movie, Cars|0 Comments

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