Science

March 17, 2023

I’d be remiss if I didn’t post a little something today; today is the 3-year anniversary of the first of what turned out to be close to 500 pandemic-related posts. And look, I even posted it right at 5pm, just like the good old days… and included the very first graph and accompanying data table.

It’s an interesting Catch-22… were it not for Covid, I’d obviously never have started writing about it. But not only that; I wouldn’t have had the time to do so. It was isolation and social distancing and cancelled meetings and Zoom that led to a nice pocket of free time every day to do some writing.

With Covid effectively over, at least what all of us would consider to have been “The Pandemic”, I’m back to not having anywhere near as much time as I did from 2020 to 2022. It shouldn’t take a relatively-catastrophic pandemic to be the driving force for being able to find time for myself, but this was continually on my mind today as I hopped from Zoom to Teams to Zoom to Teams to Zoom, meeting after meeting. WTF am I doing. I want to write something, and I’m actually not going to have time. How things have changed.

Well… maybe let’s put that change to good use. It’s taken me 5 minutes to write what you’ve just read up to here… what if AI could do the rest? What if I told some AI to write about this St. Patrick’s Day, bending the curve, three weeks to do so, following South Korea’s example, not following Italy’s, and speculating about an eventual vaccine. Hey, AI, take everything I knew (or thought I knew) on St. Patrick’s Day three years ago and write an essay.

So I did that… and here, between the lines, is what it spat out:

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Title: Three-Year Anniversary of My First COVID-19 Blog Post: A Reflection on St. Patrick’s Day and the Unpredictable Journey

Introduction

As the world celebrates St. Patrick’s Day, the luck of the Irish and the joy of the festivities, I am reminded of a different milestone. Today marks the three-year anniversary of my first blog post about COVID-19. It’s hard to believe that it has been that long since we were first introduced to the virus that brought the world to a standstill. This anniversary will always hold a special place in my heart as it falls on St. Patrick’s Day, a day meant for merriment and camaraderie.

In this article, I will take a walk down memory lane, reflecting on how things looked so uncertain back then, how we tried to copy South Korea’s success, and how we prayed we wouldn’t experience what was going on in Italy. We will also revisit the race for a vaccine and the long-lasting impact of the pandemic.

A Time of Uncertainty

Three years ago, on St. Patrick’s Day, we were filled with trepidation as the gravity of the COVID-19 pandemic began to set in. It was a time of uncertainty, and we were all grappling with the reality of the situation. As the virus rapidly spread across the globe, countries implemented lockdowns and social distancing measures to slow down the transmission.

The phrase “three weeks to bend the curve” became a rallying cry as people around the world did their best to adhere to the new normal. Those three weeks turned into months, and as time went by, it became increasingly clear that the virus would not be eradicated as quickly as we had hoped.

Learning from South Korea

As the pandemic progressed, we looked towards other countries for guidance. South Korea’s success in controlling the virus was a glimmer of hope for many. Through widespread testing, contact tracing, and strict quarantine measures, South Korea was able to minimize the virus’s impact significantly.

Countries around the world tried to emulate South Korea’s approach, but varying degrees of success were observed. It became evident that each country had its unique set of circumstances and challenges that needed tailored strategies.

Italy’s Struggle

As we were trying to learn from South Korea’s success, we also feared experiencing what was happening in Italy. The country was hit hard by COVID-19, with hospitals overwhelmed and the death toll rising at an alarming rate. Images of packed intensive care units and exhausted healthcare workers haunted us as we prayed that we wouldn’t have to face the same fate.

The world came together to support Italy in its time of need, with countries sending medical supplies, financial aid, and words of encouragement. The situation in Italy served as a grim reminder of the devastating potential of the virus.

The Race for a Vaccine

In the midst of the chaos, the scientific community was hard at work trying to develop a vaccine that could put an end to the pandemic. Typically, vaccines take years to develop, but the urgency of the situation led to an unprecedented global collaboration.

The development and distribution of vaccines became a race against time, and the world held its breath as we awaited the outcome. Within a year, several vaccines were developed, tested, and approved for emergency use – a remarkable achievement in the history of science and medicine.

The world rejoiced as vaccines became more widely available, and vaccination campaigns were launched worldwide. The vaccination process brought a sense of hope and optimism that we might finally be able to return to some semblance of normalcy.

The Long-lasting Impact

While the creation and distribution of vaccines marked a significant milestone in the fight against COVID-19, the pandemic’s long-lasting impact cannot be ignored. The world has changed in many ways, with remote work becoming more prevalent, increased focus on mental

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Huh… that’s interesting. It stopped right there. “increased focus on mental”… mental what? Mental health? Mental breakdown, much like this AI suffered at a wonderfully-coincidental moment? We’ll never know.

I have to be honest… and I say this with all due respect to the hundred trillion neural connections powering this beast… and also somewhat humbly… that I write better than this thing. Reading that was like crunching yourself through raw cereal with no milk or sugar; dry and tasteless. I read what it wrote and it’s like a grade-8 essay written by a kid whose friends are all already outside playing after-school road-hockey, and all he wants to do is get the hell out of his room and get on with real life.

Which, in essence, is a pretty good summary of where we’re at. Life is, indeed, for living… and, especially on such a beautiful day… blue skies, sunshine, with people already making their way to pubs everywhere, ready to get hammered on green beer, sing, be merry, and celebrate life… yeah, what am I doing here? It’s 5pm and still sunny and beautiful; let’s get on with it.

By |2023-03-17T17:00:00-07:00March 17th, 2023|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |3 Comments
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December 7, 2022

Hey! It’s been a while… time to post something! Today is the 7th… and it’s been 77 days since the last time I reminded everyone we’re still in the midst of a pandemic (Really? Are we? Maybe?)… and the Canucks scored 7 goals a couple of nights ago to win a hockey game where they were down 4-0 after the first period. Lucky 7s all around!

But let’s talk about another number… a nice big fat round number like… 1,000… because 1,000 days ago was March 12th, 2020… not a particularly significant date, except it was the first time I, personally, said to myself… OK, what the hell is actually going on here…

For context, a few days earlier — March 7th — was the day that the first two cases of C19 (in the Lynn Valley Care Centre in North Vancouver) were announced… Canada’s first case of community transmission. A couple of days later, Canada’s first death; one of those two people.

A thousand days later and here we are… and where exactly are we?

First of all, seriously… 1,000 days? In some ways it feels like 1,000 years ago. In other ways, it feels like last week. The vacuum of the last three years has been messing with a lot of minds, mine included.

Just for fun, I’ve included the same chart, now updated, as last time I posted 77 days ago… a sort of correlation of cases counts associated with levels of C19 found in waste-water. Not the most scientific thing in the world, but it gives you some idea that this virus is still out there, especially with that last spike. Cause for concern? It coincidentally equates to implying around 1,000 new cases per day. Make of that what you will.

So… let’s briefly talk about the virus. But no, not Covid. Not a cold virus or flu virus either. Let’s talk about… Monkeypox.

Oh yeah! Remember that? Yeah, yeah… what happened to that, anyway?

Exactly. The short answer is, not much. Not much at all. But… since we were all in full “pandemic alert” mode, it potentially turned into a lot more than that, certainly as far as the media was concerned. That is, until the science caught up. If you’re wondering how it all panned out here in Canada: 1,459 cases, 44 hospitalizations, 0 deaths. Yes, zero deaths. Let’s move on.

But let’s talk about that scientific aspect of it, because that’s been very relevant during Covid, especially this issue of science “catching up.” Every time there’s been a change in policy, a new way of looking at it, a new strategy of dealing with it, half the people scream, “You see?! tHeY dOn’T kNoW wHaT tHeY’rE TaLkInG aBouT!!1!!1!!!!” The other half understand how the scientific method works, and that shifting opinions often have to do with the science finally catching up.

Allow me to talk about both of my grandmothers (of blessed memory) for a moment. They left this world many years ago, but they also left behind a lot of wisdom, and I will impart upon you two pieces of unscientific wisdom that they (and every other grandmother, Jewish or not), would tell you: One, if you’re feeling sick, chicken soup will heal you and/or at least make you feel better. And two, wear a jacket or wear a sweater… don’t just go out in the cold or you’ll get sick.

Hardly earth-shattering wisdom, scientific or not. We’ve all heard it a thousand times, whether we agree we it or not.

The chicken soup thing has been around for thousands of years… and it makes sense. Millenia ago, infant mortality was 100x higher than today. You had a 50/50 chance of making it past childhood, so you can imagine, just like today but even more fiercely back then: When a kid got sick, grandma did everything she could to keep the kid alive. Let’s try this, let’s try that. Someone decided to try chicken soup, and it seems to have made a difference. Then someone down the road tried adding more to it – this vegetable, that vegetable, whatever. There’s nothing scientific here… because that’d require giving chicken soup to one kid, not to another, and then watching the latter kid die and then wonder if it might have made a difference. All things being equal, everyone gets chicken soup and everyone, generally, gets better. Science be damned, we don’t need fancy statistics to tell us it works.

Indeed, that was the case for thousands of years. Nobody knew why, just that it worked. More recently, our understanding of how the body works led to a number of observations… like: Chicken has tryptophan, which helps your body produce serotonin… a great mood-enhancer. The noodles are a simple carb – a good source of energy. The carrots and celery and onion have vitamins C and K and other anti-oxidants, all of which promote a healthy immune system. And finally, especially like my grandmothers liked it, it’s piping-hot… and steam on its own makes it easier to breathe, opening up the airways with its mild anti-inflammatory effect.

Now… scientifically speaking, does that paragraph actually prove anything? Not really. It’s full of possibilities and maybes, but there’s still no scientific method to it. But hang on, we’re not done here…

Twenty-two years ago, an actual scientist decided to get to the bottom of this and did a proper study. The results are detailed and quite specific, and here’s a summary:

“A variety of soup preparations was evaluated and found to be variably, but generally, able to inhibit neutrophil chemotaxis. The current study, therefore, presents evidence that chicken soup might have an anti-inflammatory activity, namely the inhibition of neutrophil migration.”

I’ll admit I don’t understand all of that, but I certainly get the gist of it. The paper goes into it far more, and is easily Googleable if you’re interested in the details… but the summary is, yes – it works.

Let’s call that Exhibit A of where the science finally caught up with it.

Exhibit B is the other bit of wisdom, one that’s led to plenty of discussion in the past, and especially in the last 1,000 days.

If you’re all alone in the middle of nowhere and step out into the cold, can you catch a cold? Probably not, though it’s not impossible that you have some cold viruses attached to you and they happen to make you sick. But the cold on its own – no. Therefore, the conclusion is that “cold” can’t give you a cold and that, therefore, notwithstanding everyone gets colds when it’s cold out, there must be another explanation, most of which centre around the idea of people clustering together out of the cold, viruses last longer in drier air, less sunlight, less physical activity, etc. It has nothing to do with the cold… it’s just a by-product of our communal behaviour during the season when everyone is inside, in close proximity and breathing all over each other.

It’s always been my opinion that the cold seems to compromise your immune system… so that viruses that are actually around us all the time seem to be able to get a better grip when it’s cold. I have no scientific basis for claiming that; just life experience. And the persistent brainwashing from my grandmothers, parents and every single other person who, at some point, was tasked with making sure I’m OK. Bundle up, wear a jacket, don’t go out into the cold like that because you’ll get sick. Blah blah blah. But life experience has shown this to be true, even if science hasn’t. At this very moment, the John Hopkins site says this:

“Contrary to popular belief, cold weather or being chilled doesn’t cause a cold. However, more colds do occur during the cold season (early fall to late winter). This is probably due to a variety of factors, including: Schools are in session, increasing the risk for exposure to the virus.”

Well, guess what. A study published yesterday proves that – yes, that’s right, the cold does indeed compromise the immune system, at least specifically when it comes to respiratory illness. The front of the nose has small fluid-filled sacs as part of the initial immune response, and the fluid secreted from there attacks bacteria and viruses as best it can. And what happens when the temperature of the nose drops, say from room temperature to less than 5°C? Does it affect that particular immune response? Yes. Drastically. To the extent that all the viruses hanging around trying to find a way in suddenly themselves with a far easier point of entry.

Exhibit B – the science finally caught up with something we’ve all know. Let’s see how long it takes John Hopkins, a well-respected source of scientific knowledge, to change their opinion. And no, it’s not because they were wrong; it’s because we’ve all learned something, and now we’re all better off for it. This will undoubtedly lead to prevention methods and other benefits.

When it comes to Covid, we’ve learned so much over the last 1,000 days that in some way, it’s possibly the preferred disease to catch. If you have Covid and need treatment, there are fully-stocked artilleries of options. Unlike this insanely contagious and relatively serious flu that’s going around this year, affecting everyone – especially kids. It’s horrifying to think it’s killed 6 children in BC in the last two weeks. What the hell – how can that be happening in 2022? What can anyone do about it?

At the risk of repeating myself for the 1,000th time, the science has caught up with this as well. There’s a vaccine, and it targets this Influenza type-A subtype H3N2 virus. It should prevent you from getting sick, or at least, seriously sick. I mean, don’t get me wrong… chicken soup is great… but it’s probably better to not get sick in the first place. Let’s all stay healthy.

And… on that note, whatever it may be that you’re celebrating, be it Christmas or Hanukkah or Kwanzaa or Ōmisoka or Festivus – or nothing – whatever it is, wishing you all a Happy and Healthy Holiday Season!

… and when you go outside, be sure you wear a sweater. And maybe a good jacket – no, not that one, the heavier one. Hey, a scarf wouldn’t hurt either.

By |2022-12-07T22:52:29-08:00December 7th, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver, Sports & Gaming, Essays|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |4 Comments
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September 21, 2022

Greetings!! It’s been a while – I hope you’ve all been enjoying the last few hours of summer and this recent beautiful weather!!

“Oh no!”, you’re thinking… “It’s the Covid-blog guy… now what?!”

Please, chillax – it’s not my intention to trigger you, nor am I going to write about how summer is over and here comes the Covid. I am with you; I’ve had enough, but as we approach the 3-year mark of this whole little nightmare we’ve only recently put behind us (have we?!), I thought it’d be a worthwhile exercise to try to see where we’re actually at.

Indeed, time adds an interesting element to perspective on things. As time goes by, we evolve, our thoughts evolve, and our way of looking at things shifts… knowledge, time, experience… some combination of all of the above, plus more… equals a completely different look at the exact same thing. For example…

I can tell you exactly where I was on June 20, 1983… a 14-year-old kid at the first-ever event held at BC Place, the brand new, futuristic, incredibly-cool stadium. Over 60,000 people were jammed in there along with me, and we got to see the Vancouver Whitecaps defeat the Seattle Sounders 2-1. We also got to see a memorable halftime show… The Beach Boys.

Odd choice for a half-time show in Vancouver during a soccer game? Not really… The Beach Boys were, on their own, a big draw. It was smart of the organizers; hit numerous demographics to fill the place: Soccer fans, music fans, younger people, older people.

My opinion of that particular aspect… this coming from a young teenager, was… what was the point of having these close-to-washed-up musicians here? Don’t get me wrong… I liked their music and still do. But, by 1983, The Beach Boys had been around for more than 20 years. Come on, grandpas, share the stage. Let’s see The Police, Dire Straits or Eurhythmics!!

It was a big moment in the history of Vancouver, the opening of that stadium, and seeing the Whitecaps and BC Lions move into their new home. That was a little less than 4 decades ago.

A little less than 4 weeks ago ago, I was at the PNE, as the annual fair shut down for the season. I found myself not far from the old home of the Whitecaps and Lions, what used to be Empire Stadium… at the PNE Amphitheatre. You know, the one that was recently trashed to the ground by disgruntled fans. But, before they got a chance to wreck the place, I was there to see… The Beach Boys.

Needless to say, I am presently way older than all of those grandpas I scoffed at a lifetime ago. The Police, Dire Straits and Eurhythmics are no longer around, but the Beach Boys are… at least some of them. Mike Love, who looked old to me in 1983 still looks old to me, and why wouldn’t he – he’s now 81. But there he was, belting out tunes for a huge crowd that ranged from 100 weeks to 100 years old. A crowd that knew pretty-much every lyric to pretty-much every song.

So yeah, perspective. Certainly, the world looks different to me these days than it did back then, even with the same old stuff.

Which, of course, leads us to the topic-du-jour…

I always like to say “Start at the finish line”. It’s a lot easier to navigate the world if you know where you’re heading. Or think you do. In this day and age, the world offers you an opportunity to follow any and all finish lines. Whatever you want, you’ll be happily guided towards it by those with similar ideas.

Do you want to convince yourself Covid is over? Listen to Joe Biden, who yesterday announced it is. Want to convince yourself otherwise? Listen to Dr. Fauci, who minutes later said “Wait… not so fast.”

Do you need a mask to walk into a hospital? Do you need a vaccine or two to walk into Canada? Do you need either to walk onto a plane? I can ask countless questions, many of which even I don’t know the answer to. I used to, but like all of you, at some point I decided to get on with my life and deal with these things reactively, not proactively. There comes a point where there’s only so much one can do, and we’re all beyond it. We’re vaccinated, we’ve been exposed to C19, we’ve probably had it, whether we know it or not… and our immune systems are wired to battle it, perhaps better than we think, also whether we know it or not.

So… I like posting pretty pictures and numbers, but they have to mean something. By April of 2022, every fountain of useful data had dried up. Notwithstanding case-count numbers were already wildly inaccurate, but at that point they stopped being recorded entirely. Hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths – formerly, numbers to be scrutinized… have become largely irrelevant. It’s no surprise that many people in hospital test positive for C19. What’s relevant is that most of them are in hospital for other reasons, completely unrelated. There are people in the ICU with C19, but they’re there because they fell down and hit their head. And perhaps they’ll die of their brain injury, and perhaps that’ll count as a C19 statistic. At this point, it doesn’t matter.

What does matter is the absolutely impressive artillery we’ve built up to fight Covid… whatever version you may get. Beyond vaccinations and natural immunity, both of which most of us have plenty of, there’s a huge war-chest of therapies and medicine and things many of us will never hear of unless we wind up in hospital with (and because of) Covid. Until then, don’t worry about it.

Or…

Here’s an interesting thing…one thing that’s still being recorded is the waste-water concentration levels of C19. I couldn’t find data before November of 2020, but for these purposes, that’s good enough.

Have a look at the two graphs… the one of the left is the good old-fashion case-count chart that you’ve seen 500 times if you’ve been reading these posts. This particular one starts in Nov 2020 and runs till Apr 20200, when the data stopped.

The graph on the right is the waste-water concentration of C19 as measured on Annacis Island, and smoothed-out to a 7-day moving average. This one similarly starts in Nov 2020, but runs to today because we’re still getting those numbers.

The gold-coloured bands look very similar, and they’re for the identical period of time. You could overlay them and they’d fit almost perfectly, implying a pretty-close one-to-one mapping of C19 cases and C19 waste-water levels.

Using a bit of science, we can extrapolate what case-counts might be today by “reverse engineering” the waste-water numbers… which, going forward from April 2022 are represented by the blue line… which almost looks like it took off right after case-counts stopped being tracked… and, actually shot up to levels that would’ve been insanely worrisome a year earlier.

But, because of much of what I wrote above, nobody is anywhere near as worried as they used to be. Even though Covid is certainly still out there.

If you look at the blue line, and where it is today, it’s roughly at levels comparable to April 2021… which is the bunch of numbers above the graphs. Have a look at BC… remember those days? A thousand new cases a day, roughly 5 people a day dying from Covid…

Those were scary times, and if this blue line implies anything, that’s where we’d be today if we weren’t so well protected. The implication is Covid is still out there, we’re all processing it at a level of 1,000 cases a day, but it’s not having a huge impact on society.

The summary of all of this has two very-different conclusions, depending on which finish line you’re aiming towards.

Covid is still out there and clearly will be for a long time and we need to take every precaution to prevent its spread. Bring back masks and mandates and all the rest of it till it’s eradicated.

Or…

Covid is still out there but so what. The fact it’s out there so prevalently shows it’s no longer a danger. The new strains are weaker and we have so many different things with which to fight it. Enough already. Let’s get on with our lives.

Like usual, the answer lies somewhere in between, and in talking to people about it, their opinions can be found all over that spectrum. To a great extent, everyone is operating on a simple principle: go along with the policies of wherever you are and, if there are no policies, do whatever you’re comfortable with. Fair enough.

The world keeps going around, and so should you. So should I, right? Round round get around I get around… who was that great philosopher/thinker/writer that came up with that brilliance? Socrates? Nietzsche? Sarte?

Nah… that was the Beach Boys, of course.

Onward.

September 21, 2022

By |2022-09-22T13:17:40-07:00September 21st, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver, Humour, Movies, Music & Entertainment, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , |3 Comments
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March 10, 2022

It’s been a while since I watched the Dr. Henry update, but I did today, if for no other reason than the fact that it’s going to be the last one… at least as far as scheduled ones are concerned. Two years ago, and for many subsequent months, you’d have found me glued to the screen on a daily basis, watching intently and trying to figure out what the hell is going on. That was my daily question, and the answer always was… “We’ll see.”

Today’s final press conference, close to two years to the day of the first one, came with some announcements that were expected… and will make some people very happy, and others not so much…

One big question people have been wondering about is when do we see the end of vaccine passports, and the answer is – assuming things remain on the path they’re on – April 8th. The provincial requirement for vaccine passports goes away April 8th and, in a perfect world (don’t we wish), stays away forever. We’ll see.

The other biggie is, of course, mask mandates: Also gone, as of midnight tonight… and notwithstanding some minor exceptions (medical settings), places like restaurants and concerts and hockey games will no longer require them. But let’s clarify that… restaurants will no longer be required to require them. I am guessing there will be some places who will be hesitant to just say it’s open season, and that’s likely to cause some problems. Some people will be offended that the person next to them is voluntarily wearing a mask. For others, it’ll be the exact opposite. Some restaurants, for their own reasons, may choose to stick with it… not for the scientific, but for the psychological reasons. We’ll see.

There is a huge, and I do mean… huge… difference between the science and the psychology of where we are today. I realized that recently when walking into my house and subconsciously reaching for my mask. Part of my brain is now on that autopilot; going from outdoors to indoors? Put on a mask.

That sort of autopilot has saved my life, literally… on a few occasions walking the streets of London. Here’s some advice, especially if you’ve never been there: When you’re crossing the street, look both ways. It’s that simple. Don’t try to think about traffic and where it’s coming from and where it’s going and who’s turning to and from where… just look both ways. I once came within inches of getting hit by a bus because I was quickly going to cross the street and there was nothing off to the left. Of course there wasn’t, because that’s not how it works over there.

So how’s it going to work over here? A mask or no mask is unlikely to be a matter of life and death, but the psychology of un-training our brains may take a while. I have a tremendous amount of empathy for people who aren’t automatically young and healthy and fearless. I feel for teachers who are worried about the fact that all students K-12 will no longer require masks after Spring Break.

I feel for them because the fear that’s been around for two years doesn’t go away so easily. Obviously, at some point, the mask mandate has to go away, and it’s the science that’s driving that decision today. But no matter when that was going to be, it was going to result in a lot of issues… and here we are. For a long time, we’ve been told we’re wearing masks for the benefit of others… but long after Covid is gone, there will be people with masks… and in that case, it’s entirely for themselves and their mental well-being. Whether it’s tomorrow or in 6 months or in 2 years, you will see people with masks. To quote our fearless Dr. Henry: “Be kind, be calm.” Perhaps the “Be safe” part of it is not so relevant anymore, at least not for you. But it is, and will remain so, for others.

Speaking of what’s relevant and not… I’ve been wondering for a while how long I’ll be updating these numbers and charts. “Until they’re no longer relevant” is my inward-facing answer to that. Does any of this mean anything anymore?

For a long time, case counts meant everything. Cases turned into hospitalizations and ICUs and deaths, etc. Well… it’s been a while since the daily case numbers have meant much. Testing protocols have changed… and while, for a long time, we knew that reported cases were significantly undercounting reality, we never knew by how much. That’s never been more true, to the extent that the published numbers no longer mean much at all… so much so that many jurisdictions are no longer publishing them on a daily basis, if at all. You’ll see a lot of italics in today’s chart… those are interpolated numbers. If it was 170 last week and it’s 100 today, you’ll see it stepping down by very pretty and consistent and italicized “10” on a daily basis. Does that really mean anything at all? Honestly, not much. But it’s better than blanks and then a big jump. And, to be fair, it’s a relatively fair view of a trend… though, again, the trend isn’t actually as important as simply: Where are we today?

So… where, in fact, are we today…

Today, B.C. has around 400 Covid hospital cases. That number was close to 1,000 a month ago. Also today, B.C. has 58 Covid ICU cases. A month ago, it was close to 150. To the extent this has always greatly been about managing the pressures on the health-care system, we’re nowhere near frightening levels, and continue to head in the right direction.

And, on that note, what do these numbers actually mean? Everyone admitted to the hospital these days gets a Covid test. If you go to the E.R. with a broken arm and test positive, you’re on that list. If you have a heart attack and wind up in the ICU, and happen to have tested positive, you’re on that list too. And if you die with Covid, notwithstanding it may have had nothing to do with it, you’ll count there too.

So… look at all the pretty charts, because they won’t be around much longer. I have to be honest and say that I don’t think they’re conveying too much useful information anymore. You can see the hospitalization and ICU and death trends pretty clearly; they’re what you’d expect… and unless there’s some unheard of Omegaplex variant coming down the line, all of those charts should be going downhill (in the good way) forever. Every single graph shows where we are, and every single graph is in a much better place than it was a month ago… by far.

I suppose this is what the end-game of the pandemic is supposed to look like; it’s what it was going to look like all along… a fuzzy finish line at best. Initially, like two years ago, I somehow imagined a V-E day-type ending to all of this… where the announcement is made, the case-counts are near zero, the death counts have been zero ten days in a row and we’re all out dancing in the streets downtown throwing our masks in the air and hugging strangers. Nothing remotely close like that will happen, and the only people jamming downtown are the insane trucker anti-mask anti-vax “freedom” brigade who are on their way to Victoria to protest… to protest what? Nothing left to protest, but that won’t stop them, so we’ll see.

In fact, that’s a good motto going forward… it answers a lot of the rhetorical questions: Do you feel comfortable in a crowded place? We’ll see. Where nobody has a mask? We’ll see. And nobody had to show a vaccine passport? Honestly, speaking for myself, I don’t know.

We’ll see.

By |2022-03-10T20:21:07-08:00March 10th, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |7 Comments
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February 9, 2022

It wasn’t so long ago that marijuana was illegal. Back then, smoking up in public could get you arrested. Not to mention possession, distribution, operating a little grow-op, and so on. There was an exception to all of that, though… and it occurred exactly once a year, on April 20th. On that day, 4/20, at precisely 4:20pm, a lot of people (far more than 420) would congregate on the lawn (yes, back when it was, appropriately, grass) of the Vancouver Art Gallery… and get high together.

Not everyone there partook; many were there just to be part of it because they agreed with the message, and/or had some role to play. There were cops, reporters, curious bystanders, merchants peddling their associated wares, confused tourists, and so on. The whole thing seems to have lost its edge once pot became legal, but in its day, there was plenty to celebrate for those who cared.

One thing that never happened was the whole thing getting out of hand, or hijacked for an ulterior motive. Maybe an arrest or two for some drunk idiot, but, for the most part, what else can you expect from a large group of stoners. It’s all mellow; it’s all good man. One big, eclectic group of people, all relatively on the same page. Indeed, you can tell a lot about a group of people by looking at not just them, but those who associate with them.

Which brings us to the events of recent days… events we’re not done with quite yet.

I find it sad – tragically sad – that the incredibly divisive left/right black/white right/wrong paradigm that’s been ripping apart the core of the U.S. since 2016 has managed to jump the 49th.

I’m saddened to see so many people whose opinions have made sense to me for two years have a strange course-correction when it comes to the truckers and protests… falling into that sinkhole where you stuck a toe in, then you went a bit deeper, and now it’s too late to remove yourself… but you’d rather get totally soaked and maybe even drown before you might admit you’re wrong.

So… let’s rewind a bit: A lot of us, and by a lot of us I mean everyone – is sick and tired of this pandemic. We all just want to go back to normal. Let’s not get into why we’re not there yet; let’s just agree we all want that to happen.

So… you hear there’s going to be a protest against what you imagine is the bad guy; sure. Go protest. It’s your privilege to do so. Then, when you get there, you realize perhaps there’s more going on here than you imagined.

Pause button for moment with respect to the makeup of that crowd; many of them are imported and jumping on the bandwagon. There’s no version of “Canada versus the virus” that needs to involve Confederate flags and Nazi symbolism, and yeah, I know also… those people don’t speak for you. I get that too… but here’s a concept for you: If you’re sitting at a table with 9 other people, and then a Nazi sits down… watch to see who gets up. Because if nobody does, now you’re sitting at a table with 11 Nazis. Yeah, yeah, I get it… they don’t speak for you. But here’s a concept for you; by not getting up from the table, you’re speaking for *them*. There was actively one; now there is passively many more.

Why exactly are a bunch of (mostly) unwanted people showing up to what ostensibly should be a peaceful Canadian rally? You’re just there to simply (and loudly) state you’re tired of mandates. So, what’s the big deal?

Let’s answer that question a little differently, for those saying that bandwagon-jumpers don’t count.

Let’s set aside for a moment the people desecrating the tomb of the unknown soldier… what’s the big deal… it’s just a couple of idiots. They don’t speak for us.

Let’s set aside the people draping crap on top of a statue of the greatest Canadian of them all, Terry Fox… what’s the big deal? And anyway, Terry Fox himself would probably be out here dancing with us, as Canadian as he was. Actually, he wouldn’t, because he lived the heroic final days of his life raising money for science – as we all know, scientific research to cure cancer. He embraced medical science till the day he died, and countless lives have been saved with research directly funded by his legacy. But let’s set that aside for a moment.

Let’s set aside the violence, the homophobic signs, and the blocked traffic, the relentless noise. Let’s set aside the intimidation of journalists, hotel managers, medical workers and baristas. Let’s set aside the people stealing from soup kitchens. Let’s set aside the guys who tried to set an apartment building on fire and blocked the exits.

Jeez… we’re excusing an awful lot of deplorable behaviour, eh. Oh well… all in the name of freedom.

Let’s get back to 4/20, and here’s a great question: Do you know what some other people celebrate on 4/20? It’s not just “get high” day… it also happens to be Hitler’s birthday. Countless white supremacist facist assholes love that day. And I’ve always wondered why they never take the opportunity to march to the “lawn” of the Art Gallery and let their presence be known. There’s a captive crowd there, partying it up… they’d fit right in and yell and scream and party alongside everyone else.

Except, of course, they wouldn’t. As stoned as all of those people may be, they’re West-coast easy-going love-your-neighbour type people who are pretty clear what they believe in, and they wouldn’t put up with it. As stoned as they are, they’d beat the ever-living shit out of those skinheads. The stoners would literally stone them.

And all of this is why I’m more than a little disturbed by what’s going on.

All of you who support these rallies… here’s a question for you: Once all the mandates are lifted and whatever else they purport to be protesting is no longer a fight, then what? What will you say to the ongoing disruption of life caused by a fringe who’s here with their own agenda, one that has absolutely nothing to do with yours?

The problem is that they’re using your well-intentioned cry for normality (and please, do not call it freedom; let’s not go there) – and using it to show themselves and each other and the alt-whatever fringe of society that hey, they all agree with us. They speak for us too. We’re welcome here.

They’re not welcome here; certainly not by me, and, I should hope, not by you either. There’s a very big difference between “We’re tired of the pandemic” and what we’ve seen recently… a shitstorm that’s not going to be going away any time soon.

It’s time to take a big step back and understand what’s actually going on here… and not allow ourselves to get dragged into some post-pandemic/pre-apocalpyptic nightmare of divisiveness that we seem to be imposing on each other… and which has absolutely nothing to do with our actual shared values that make up Canada – the actual and real True North Strong and Free.

By |2022-02-09T20:48:46-08:00February 9th, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Politics, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , |6 Comments
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January 6, 2022

Usually I know what I’m talking about (or, at least, think I do)… but I’ve been trying to figure something out, and I am going in circles. Some things require questioning.

There are 2.8 million people in BC who are 50 or older, of which some 700,000 are ages 50 to 60… and this particular demographic (which I’m part of) is the one who got their first shot in late April/early May, their second shot in late June/early July… and, therefore, have become eligible for the booster in recent weeks. The invites may have been sprinkling down like tiny snowflakes at first… but now… we’ve seen in recent days what a real snowfall can look like. Terrific. As soon as you get your invite, book your appointment. Hopefully you can get to it.

But wait… here’s the question: If you recently had Covid, should you wait for the booster? How long should you wait? Why?

So… I’ve asked a lot of people and I’ve read lots of articles and data, and the best response I can formulate when presently asked, is… “Good question!” or “I sincerely don’t know” or “Ask me in 6 months”.

Here in BC, we don’t get to find out what variant we had. They’re obviously collecting the data, but for some reason, don’t want to disclose it. I wish they did, as do many people, because it might make some difference in the chosen course of action, given that the present vaccines are designed for Delta and previous versions; the booster is too. There is no doubt that one, two and three vaccines confer protection against serious illness no matter what version you’re unfortunate enough to contract, so everyone should eventually get all of them. But the issue is… if you’ve recently had Covid as the result of a breakthrough infection (ie 90% of us who got sick in December), when should you get the booster? Pouring a cupful of boiling water into an already-boiling pot doesn’t do much… but if that large pot of water has cooled off a bit, then it does.

I got in a bit of trouble trying to ask this question in one of the BC Covid Facebook groups; the moderators refused to allow it, and gave me pithy and useless one-line responses to my questioning their attitude. Yes, I know you can get the booster 14 days after your symptoms subside. Yes, I know Dr. Henry said just get the booster as soon as you can, no matter what… and I understand where she’s coming from; she doesn’t want to see a flood hospital admissions, and the best way to achieve that given what we don’t yet know – and to umbrella to the whole issue – is to just get everyone as vaccinated as possible… as soon as possible. But that’s not necessarily a medical decision; it’s based on mitigating the local worst-case scenarios with respect to overwhelming the medical infrastructure. My counter-argument would be, “Sure, ok… but maybe someone else needs that booster more at this very moment.” Indeed, there is a lot of talk of “super-immunity” that you have (for a while… how long? A month? Two months? Three?) after a vaccine/vaccine/infection course. If I’m presently “super-immune”, why waste a booster on me right now? Depending who you ask, here are the recommendations:

BC says get it two weeks later.
Ontario says one month.
Quebec says two to three months.
One American article I read said up to six months.

I’m a big fan of Dr. Henry and usually agree with her, so it was interesting to be treated like some sort of anti-vaxxer just because I dared asked a question that threatened to go against the (present-day) gospel of our PHO.

As we all know, science evolves and, as we learn more, so do recommendations. Dr. Henry herself has course-corrected many times, as she should. I suspect this issue will evolve over time as well as more data is collected, analyzed and understood.

But in the meantime, there are all sorts of complicated reasons and mitigating factors going into these various opinions, and there are too many variables… and, of course, different places have different priorities and/or concerns. Vaccine shortages? Bed shortages? Percentage of population vaccinated? Which strain was the infection? Etc etc.

For what it’s worth, I’m leaning towards waiting a month to six weeks. I’m pretty certain I got Omicron given the symptoms, lack of symptoms, and course of the illness… and, that being the case, that covers me (for a while) from all presently-known strains. Certainly, I should be good till the end of the month, and then I’ll reconsider. Or, of course, I might read something in an hour that’ll change my mind. I’m counting on the fact that actual data and facts on the topic will emerge every day, and my (and everyone else’s) opinions and decision making won’t be based on just rudimentary data, speculation and gut feel. And if you’re in the same boat, please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments; I’d love to hear where you’re thinking is at.

On a separate note, one that requires no speculation or changing opinions… we’ve been hearing for a long time that if you’re sick and/or unvaccinated, stay away from people who may have compromised immune systems. As healthy and immune as you may be from contracting the illness, not everyone is so lucky. So, stay away.

Even if you choose not to stay away, the potential victim usually has a say. If you’re not vaxxed but your relative is, and they tell you to stay the hell away, they themselves can flee the scene if you’re so entitled as to impose yourself upon their presence.

But… that’s not always the case, and the specific case I want to talk about are babies.

Human babies are pathetically frail when compared to other mammals. Some animals are good to go on their own mere hours after being born. It’s only humans that rely on parental protection for so long. Years, not hours. Babies depend on us to keep them safe, and the reason I mention this is that a recent article pointed out a very simple stat that speaks for itself: All of the babies presently hospitalized in Ontario due to complications from Covid-19… are from unvaccinated mothers. All of them. One hundred percent.

Yes… some other things don’t require any questioning at all.

By |2022-01-06T20:08:06-08:00January 6th, 2022|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |5 Comments
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December 31, 2021

Talk about a perfect storm… a surging variant, a ridiculous cold snap, and this period of time between Christmas and New Year’s when everyone is barely working… and those who bother showing up are basically phoning it in. The reporting arm of the health department in Alberta has actually given up. “Yeah, we think today’s number is around 4,000… use that for now. Ask us next year. See you January 4th”.

Who can blame them; the temperatures are dipping to the levels where it doesn’t matter whether you measure it in Fahrenheit or Celsius because it’s the same number. You know, sort of like the snowfall forecast we got around here two days ago… you can expect 10 (mumble) of snow. Ten what? Centimetres? Inches? Whatever.

Well… not all things are “whatever”.

The staggering number of new cases around the country (and the entire continent… and, while we’re at it, the entire planet) beg some questions that require some answers but, due to all of the above, the simple responses are not so forthcoming.

Trying to consolidate the numbers with respect to new cases and hospitalizations and ICU admissions has been a real exercise, but what’s most important aren’t actually the case counts; at least, not around here. Dr. Henry made a statement which alluded to the fact that there are far more cases out there than we know about. That’s been the case since the start, but it’s far more pronounced in recent weeks. Her guess is 3x to 5x, but that’s what I’d have guessed months ago. These days, we don’t have the proper testing infrastructure to get accurate numbers and, even if we did, that majority of people aren’t going to get tested. Depending who you ask, in fact… people are being told not to go get tested. You’ve got symptoms? Pretend you have it. Isolate, take care of yourself… and don’t bother us unless you need medical attention. And those who actually tried to go get tested found multi-hour waits, or got sent home with a rapid test, or found that the testing site that’d been shut down because of the cold.

A quick note about those rapid antigen tests: they’re nearly useless. I say nearly, but not entirely… only because they probably work just fine if they’re used correctly, and if the test patient has a high-enough viral load to register. Unfortunately, neither of those things seem to overlap enough to get accurate results. A positive result certainly means you have it, but a negative result doesn’t mean anything.

If you’re taking a rapid-antigen test – and I am speaking now from direct experience, having subjected myself to be a guinea pig for a friend who was trying to figure out the validity of these things – you need to scour deeply — approaching your brain — for ten seconds a nostril, complete with long, uncomfortable swirls — to get a valid result. I took a few of these tests; a gingerly tickle of the inside of your nostril does nothing. Even a medium-sized dip into your nose doesn’t do it. Unless that gargantuan Q-tip makes your eyes tear up and cause you to cough, you didn’t do it right. And it was only when I did that *and* was symptomatic that I got a positive result.

Anyway, that aside, getting a positive test these days is somewhat secondary to what it implies. Around here, with our enviable “fully-vaxxed” rate, it’s pretty good. The daily new case numbers (5,000 on paper, closer to 100,000 in my opinion) are not translating to hospitalizations. At least not yet, but for now, that’s really good news. As a general statement, if you have a normal healthy immune system and you’ve been double-vaxxed or better, the overwhelming evidence implies that you’ll suffer some cold-like symptoms at worst, and that’ll be it. It still needs to be taken very seriously because, of course, you might end up passing it along to someone who wouldn’t handle it so well… and none of that has changed. Older, immune-compromised, at risk people… they’ve been taking the necessary steps to stay safe, and we need to do the same for their benefit.

The relative success story (for now) that we’re seeing here seems to be consistent with other places with high vaccination rates. Those with lower rates are being hit hard, but only because the sheer volume of cases at some point is going to translate to an overwhelming amount of more serious cases.

Looking at the graphs below, you’ll see that hospitalization rates have not gone up dramatically in Western Canada. Ontario and Quebec are indeed seeing more hospitalizations, but barely an increase in ICU cases. Manitoba, too… to a lesser extent. But West of that, numbers are actually down.

I’ve added a third row of graphs today. While the top two rows are the cases, hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths since September 1st, the bottom row are the daily new case counts starting at the very beginning of the pandemic. They’re interesting to look at for numerous reasons… like, you can see clearly the different waves… but have a look at Quebec, from day 1. Near the very beginning, in that first little wave, there’s a notable spike. That spike was from early May, 2020… when over a 3-day period, they saw more than 4,000 new cases and over 300 deaths. It’s interesting to note just how insignificant that little spike looks compared to what came after, especially what’s going on now. But, back then… that was honestly the moment were all thinking that we’re totally screwed. That we, here in BC, were two weeks away from a tidal wave of cases and deaths.

We’ve learned a lot since then, and one of the most important is the realization of just how effective these vaccines are. We see today’s skyrocketing case numbers and we’re nowhere near as freaked out.

On that note… I haven’t written about Trump in a while, but it’s worth mentioning this: For as long as this pandemic has been going on, he’s been talking out of both sides of his mouth. He initially played it down, no big deal, it’ll be gone in a few weeks… and it became the rallying cry of his most-extreme base. His fervent supporters were as anti-mask, anti-vaxx and anti-science as he pretended to be… notwithstanding he took great pride in being responsible for funding Operation Warp Drive which indeed had a lot to do with developing these miraculous vaccines. You know, the ones he claimed we didn’t need and don’t do anything anyway because the virus is no big deal BUT I’ve created the greatest vaccine ever to combat the China virus BUT you don’t really need the vaccine BUT yeah, I got the vaccine, as did my entire family… we all got it quietly while nobody was watching, as did every Republican politician in Washington BUT really, you’re fine, forget vaccines and masks BUT yeah, we all got the booster too BUT….

Recently, and this is the eyebrow-raising part, Trump has been announcing to his followers that yeah, he got the booster and, you know what, they should get it too. But rather than listen to their fearless leader, they boo him and disagree with him. He, of course, doesn’t care… but why is that? It’s a 180, and it needs to be understood.

From the people’s point of view, they’re so deeply sunk into that mindset that they can’t, at this point, admit it’s wrong. They’ve already drowned in the Kool Aid. A lot of them can be heard saying they’d rather die of Covid than get the vaccine, and many of them will get that wish granted. Trump doesn’t care; he never did. But he does care about making himself reasonable and relevant for 2022 and beyond, so now he’s pandering to the bigger Republic base… those that aren’t so anti-everything. And that leaves those fringe people completely abandoned, discouraged and betrayed. And, in a bit of trouble if they don’t change their mind because that’s the demographic that makes up the vast majority of pandemic-related deaths. The anti-vaxx crowd.

Our BC fully-vaxxed rate is 90%. The majority of people in hospital for Covid come from that remaining 10%. The math isn’t complicated. And the American fully-vaxxed number isn’t even close to 90%… more like 62%. Unfortunately, for some select demographics, it could get quite ugly.

Last year, at exactly this time, I wrote a relatively optimistic piece about how the worst is over. Vaccines are just around the corner, and once we all get them, this will all have been a bad dream. Well, that was a little naïve, but I’m going to say the same thing again. Given the direction of Omicron and where we are with all of this, by this time next year, Covid won’t be a distant nightmare from the past that’s still haunting us. Rather, it’ll be an endemic annoyance for which we’ll have an armada of weapons: Vaccines, treatments, prevention therapies, whatever. Every day is one step closer to C19 becoming the common cold of the future, but we’re not there yet. Next year…

So… wishing you all a Very Happy, Prosperous and – most of all – *Healthy* 2022. All the best… and Cheers!

By |2021-12-31T20:54:45-08:00December 31st, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |16 Comments
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December 17, 2021

OK – it is indeed time for an update. I meant to do this a couple of days ago, but…

There are a lot of questions floating around these days, and it’s frustrating when, for some of them, there are no real answers. Let’s start with the obvious one… you can guess what that is. It rhymes with notthisshitagainicron.

I am still sticking with the cautious optimism that as contagious as it is, the symptoms are, and will remain, mild. And, on that note…

A few days ago, I started feeling a little under the weather. Headache, fatigue, cough… but also, fever. The sort of thing where in the old days you just bundle up for a day or two and are ok, but these days, our minds go elsewhere. Yesterday afternoon, I went and got tested… and waited in an 80-minute lineup to do so. A week ago, that lineup was three cars when I drove past it.

Test results take 24 hours, but I mentioned this to a friend… who came over with a rapid antigen test – which came back negative. Excellent. I thought so, but better safe than sorry. I was already feeling a little better, and then I had a good night’s sleep. I woke up without a fever and feeling pretty ok.

So… it was a rather blunt kick in the face to receive the official PCR result a few minutes ago: Positive.

Well… shit.

So, now… instead of speculating, here’s what I can tell you. Knock on wood that I’m past the worst of it, because if this is as bad as most double-vaxxed otherwise-healthy people get this thing, we are well on our way to seeing an end to it. I’m looking at the silver lining, which is… now, getting sick, coupled with two shots, I’m good to go – perhaps to the end of this entire nightmare. Like so many others whose second vaccine dose was in late June, I’ll be getting my invitation for the booster next week. I’d been hoping to avoid Omicron for a few more weeks, because the AZ/Moderna/Moderna series seem to be very effective against it, but things don’t always go as planned. Looks like I’ll be developing immunity the old-fashioned way.

But this brings up another of those yet-to-be-answered questions with respect to the mildness of these symptoms… how many people are walking around with Omicron-Covid19 right now? I’m going to guess – a lot. Far more than will ever get tested. I say that because while we all have little slip-ups once in a while, I’m exceptionally careful with respect to masks and open spaces and proximity to people and all the rest of it. Where and when the hell did I get infected? I sincerely don’t know. And if I can get this thing, anyone can get it… and, like I’ve said, it’ll eventually hit us all… though, ideally, when you’ve already received your three-shot course.

Which leads to another question, one I’ve heard 20 versions of… what do we do? And the preamble to that has a lot to do with airline tickets and hotel reservations, many of which at this point are non-refundable. Do we go? Do we bail? Help.

The answer very much depends on a number of variables which are very different and vary wildly from person to person. If you’re not worried about getting sick (and a plane-full of double-vaxxed and masked people heading to a place of warmth and sunshine and outdoor restaurants is actually a pretty safe place), what’s the problem? Well, WestJet threw a valid question back at the government a couple of days ago; where’s the science? Why are you telling people not to travel? They do have a point; on this fourth go-around, the one thing we’ve learned is that travel restrictions do nothing to prevent the spread. If they were perfectly implemented and 100% enforced, they would. But that’s not the case… and as we’ve seen with exponential growth, that 99.9% “good enough” decays to 80%, 30%, zero very quickly. A travel restriction might, at best, delay some numbers for a few days… but as we already have seen, by the time the whistle was blown on Omicron, it was already everywhere. The hastily-imposed travel restrictions on ten African countries have been lifted because they did absolutely nothing.

So why advise people not to travel? There may be many reasons such as the pressure on the testing infrastructure and the risk of being stranded overseas and the risk of wherever you’re going imposing some unforeseen restrictions on you; all of those are valid concerns, but they have nothing to do with preventing the spread of the disease. Questions related to needing to be back on a certain day or you’ll lose your job – are perhaps more relevant. At the end of the day, the government has to do *something* — so, we get travel advisories if for no other reason than if this all goes to hell, they can say they didn’t do *nothing*.

Can it all go to hell? Unfortunately, yes. I am basing this on my now-personal experience that Omicron symptoms are generally mild. If that turns out not to be the case, given how contagious it is, we could overrun our health-care system… and that’s what they’re trying to avoid. Dr. Henry’s rather specific list of restrictions imposed today target the sorts of gatherings that are highest risk; she just wants to be sure we don’t run out of hospital beds. Fair enough.

For the moment, this eternal optimism of mine always tries to look at the bright side, and while we see a frightening rise in cases, we’re far from seeing a frightening rise in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. On the contrary; the numbers are significantly down over the last 10 days. Around here, with our excellent vaccination rate, we’re in good shape. Red states down south? It remains to be seen. Around here, new-case numbers will go up, as they are all across Canada. The implications of that remain to be seen. But if you look at the pretty picture, while the unprecedent growth in new cases is alarming, look below it to hospitalizations and ICU cases. It’s a good counterpoint.

As far as I’m concerned, my positive test has certainly derailed our holiday plans, but whatever… we’ll make the best of it. On that note, let’s try to turn my positive test into a positive for you.

I have two pairs of tickets (great ones: center-ice row-3 club seats) for this Sunday’s Canucks game (7pm against the Coyotes) that I suddenly won’t be using… so let’s have a good old-fashioned contest like the old days. I’d base it on BC numbers, but they don’t publish over the weekend… so our neighbours to the east will help us out. Over the last three days, here are the new-case numbers:

Ontario: 1,808 2,421 3,124
Quebec: 2,386 2,736 3,768

The complete list since Nov 29th is on the pretty picture.

So, guess away! Submit two guesses per entry – your guess for Saturday’s numbers for Ontario and also for Quebec. Something like “ON: 4,000 / QC: 5,000” and whoever is closest for each province wins a pair of tickets. Ties go to whoever guessed first.

See? Here’s how we make lemonade out my particularly lemony test result… good luck!

And now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go off and curl up in bed for 10 days.

By |2021-12-17T22:41:07-08:00December 17th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Politics, Science of COVID-19|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |7 Comments
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November 5, 2021

When I was a kid, I thought the little piggy that went to market was going shopping. I imagined the pig, walking upright, dressed nicely, wearing a little hat and pushing a shopping cart in the produce section, judiciously picking out the best cobs of corn. I also imagined that the little piggy that stayed home just didn’t want go shopping. Then there was the little piggy who was eating roast beef, so why would he want to go anywhere… and then the other little piggy who wasn’t hungry. And finally, the little piggy who cried “wee wee wee” all the way home; that didn’t quite add up, because I thought all of them (except the one that went shopping) were already home. But whatever.

Years later, I learned a pig “going to market” means something quite different, and when you read the innocent little nursery rhyme in that context, it all takes on a completely different meaning. The first little piggy is going to slaughter. The second little piggy isn’t quite ready to go to slaughter. The third little piggy needs to be fattened up a bit before it’s his turn. The fourth little piggy needs no more fattening up, and so we all know where he’ll be heading soon.

Distinguished literary scholars have (I suppose), for centuries (the original nursery rhyme is from 1760), been discussing the fifth little piggy. Did he escape from the market and run home, squealing with delight all the way home? Was he taken to market, not purchased, and is now squealing with relief that he gets to go back home, back to his friends… at least temporarily? Or perhaps he was purchased after all, and is now squealing in terror as he’s being taken to his new “home”. We may never know. The questions may linger for another few centuries, but it really doesn’t matter… because that’s totally not the point.

The point is… we learn something initially one way, and sometimes, in due course, as we learn more and new facts emerge, our understanding of what we originally thought gets completely transformed. It took me more than 40 years to understand what’s happening to those five little piggies… and now it’s something you yourself will think about when you’re counting and wiggling the toes of some nearby baby.

Similarly, as this pandemic has progressed, a lot of what we innocently thought we knew has changed dramatically as time has gone by. It bothers me greatly to see conclusions of scientific method and research turned right around… presented as evidence that those conducting the research don’t know what they’re doing. If science and understanding didn’t evolve, then there would be something to complain about, but the reality of the world is the exact opposite. We learn from new facts. We learn when we make mistakes. Nobody has ever been right “all along”.

Starting at the beginning of the pandemic, we were told that with handwashing and social distancing, we’d be ok. No need for masks. Dr. Henry said so. Dr. Fauci said so. They all said so… until the moment science realized that this is an airborne disease after all, and then… a very quick 180 on masks. Yes, indeed, after all… having now studied the matter more and seen more data… masks do make a difference. A big difference. Enclosed spaces? They weren’t talked about much, at least initially. They certainly are now. As the science, data and knowledge have evolved, so have the directives. It’s to be expected. Does this mean they didn’t know what they were talking about? Does it meant they don’t know what they’re talking about now? Of course not.

But sometimes, the science, data and knowledge evolve… and nothing changes, because the initial assumptions were perfectly correct in the first place… and such is the case with vaccinations.

While we’re in the midst of fine-tuning vaccinations… the length of time between doses, the benefits of mixing and matching, the necessity for a booster… this is all just rearranging the furniture and painting the walls… of a solidly-built brick house. The big bad Covid wolf may have been able to blow down the initial straw house and the subsequent house made of sticks, but here we have a rock-solid infrastructure… one in which we can all feel safe. Covid can huff and puff all it likes, but is it likely to kill us? Not by the hair on our chinny chin chins.

Yeah, I know… those three little pigs are very different from the five little ones on your toes, but here’s something worth mentioning: All three pigs in the latter story survive.

The first one, a wolf-denier, built a flimsy house out of straw. The second one was wolf-hesitant and made a bit more of an effort, but sticks aren’t good enough protection. The third little pig understood the big picture and what was at stake, and built his brick fortress… and when the big bad evil Covid wolf came around huffing and puffing and ultimately blowing down those first two houses, its occupants ran screaming to that brick house – whose pig welcomed them with open arms. Finally… a fairy tale with a happy ending, because the good guys survived… even though, initially, they weren’t really deserving. It’s very rare that life, circumstance (and/or fairy tales) reward the “wrong” ones. The whole idea is to learn a lesson. Shouldn’t those first two pigs have been eaten by the wolf? The five little piggies didn’t have a choice… they were all destined for slaughter.

But the three little pigs… they made choices, and the two that made poor choices almost paid with their lives. Yet… sometimes, real-life echoes the fairy tale. Guess what; it’s not too late. If you’re reading this and realizing you’re metaphorically and presently inhabiting a flimsy house, it’s an easy fix; while building a brick house takes effort, choosing to inhabit one doesn’t… it’s as easy as booking a vaccine appointment.

It’s unfortunately looking a lot like the big bad wolf is going to be around for a while, and you never know when or where he’s going to make an appearance with his huffing and puffing. In which house do you want to be when he shows up?

By |2021-11-05T21:06:08-07:00November 5th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Science of COVID-19, Humour, Philosophy, Art & Literature|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |6 Comments
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October 13, 2021

The Great Divide; it keeps getting wider… and every day is happy to provide examples to suit whatever argument you wish to agree with. If we were ever all together in the same boat, drifting in the same direction… well, that’s over. The river forked, and some went this way and others went that way. Depends who you ask. And yes, geologists, sit down… I know, rivers don’t do that… but you know what I’m trying to say… just trying to symbolize the ever-increasing gap in people’s opinions.

Like… It’s almost over! The U.S. border will be open soon! The Canucks are playing their first regular season game in over 18 months in front of a sell-out crowd!

Or… todays Covid deaths… 38 in Alberta and 11 in Saskatchewan… are more than we’ve seen since January. There are so many critically-ill patients in Saskatchewan that they’ll be sending them to Ontario hospitals. Yeah, here we go again.

OK, so what’s the deal? Where the hell exactly are we? Is it heading towards being over? Is it heading for a fifth wave? Will it ever end? We had such High Hopes.

Pink Floyd has a song called High Hopes… from their 1994 album “The Division Bell.”
The song contains lyrics like “The grass was greener” and “The light was brighter” and “The taste was sweeter”. How things were. And where we hope we’re once again headed… soon.

An interesting thing about that song… the eponymous (“relating to the person or thing for which something is named”) Division Bell itself plays a prominent role. You can hear it on every 4th beat of most of the song. One-two-three-DING one-two-three-DING… and I don’t mean some little “next, please” chime or a little sleigh bell… I mean an actual gigantic bell, the sort you see in a belltower of a mediaeval church. The song starts with lots of bells, but then just settles on this one… keeping that 4th beat. Then comes the wall of sound… the drums, the bass, the guitars, the keyboards, David Gilmour’s voice… but, by the end of the song, all of that has faded away and we’re left with nothing but… yes, you guessed it. When I purchased tickets for that concert, I was hoping they’d have an actual bell on stage.

Sidenote… I stood in line all night for tickets to that concert… and bought the maximum 6 tickets when it was finally my turn. I think 4 of the 5 friends who came to that show with me back in 1994 might be reading this.

Anyway, I was not disappointed. Prominently occupying the back of center-stage was a gigantic bell, and it well-served its purpose for the final song of the night; there was a solitary percussionist whose only job was to hammer it every 4 beats.

The persistence of it… they symbolism isn’t difficult to grasp. It’s not subtle… it hits you like… well, like being clanged by a bell-hammer every four beats: It doesn’t matter what’s happening now; it’s temporary. It’ll fade. But what came before and what’ll come again; that’s permanence. You can almost hear the bell ringing from a thousand years ago and ringing a thousand years into the future. But here we are for the moment and, as per above, where are we?

Before we answer that, it’s worth answering “Where should we be?” All things being equal, this pandemic should be over.

Let’s remind ourselves about R-naught (“Rø”)… a number which, at the start of this pandemic meant everything. Rø measures the “spreadability” of a disease by calculating how many people, on average, an infected person is themselves infecting. An Rø of less than one means the disease is on its way out. An Rø of greater than one means it’ll continue spreading.

The original C19 had an Rø of between 1.4 and 3.9. The Alpha variant doubled that. And then the Delta variant came along and doubled it again, to somewhere between 5 and 9. For comparison, a seasonal flu has an Rø of 0.9 to 2.1. Measles has an Rø of 12 to 18. We are closer to measles territory than a conventional flu.

If we had vaccines and treatments and no variants, this might all be over. There is a direct correlation with respect to herd immunity and Rø… and it’s exactly what you’d expect; the more infectious the disease, the more people need to be immune to it to prevent it from spreading. The originally-thought herd immunity level for beating this thing was around 70%, and with an Rø of 3, that’s about right. But now, unfortunately, it’s far from being the case. With the Delta variant, we need to be approaching 90%.

Originally, good hand washing and masks and social distancing and restrictions were thought to be the key… and they were. Without vaccines, all of those things help tremendously in stopping the spread, effectively bashing down the Rø because they prevent the virus from spreading unchecked. The world provided some examples as to what happens when you let that native Rø run its course, and it wasn’t pretty.

So… instead of a quick end, what we got is a far more contagious variant… and far more vaccine hesitancy/denial/insanity than anyone could’ve predicted. Those two things very-effectively have served to extend this… and, in essence, convert it from a pandemic to what’ll ultimately be an endemic disease that’ll be with us forever.

OR…

Well, here’s a funny thing. Much like a broken clock is right twice a day, when the fanatical anti-vaxxers scream that the scientists don’t understand this thing at all, there’s one particular aspect where they’re right… and it has to do with the mysterious 2-month cycle of Covid-19. One example of nailing the broken clock is this:

It seems, with some regularity, that when there’s a surge in cases, they seem to plateau after about two months and then drop off. Indeed, look at the numbers and pretty pictures and they all tell the same story. There’s a definite plateau off of the two-month surge, and in the U.S., who started down the path before us, a notable decline in new cases… 35% since September 1st. Indeed, worldwide, cases have dropped 30% since late August and when cases drop, so do hospitalizations and ICU admissions and deaths. The surge in ICU cases and deaths in Alberta and Saskatchewan today are due to the new case surges of two weeks (and longer) ago… but today’s new-case numbers are all, at worst flat, and, at best, a lot lower (more than 50%) from the recent past. Here’s a not-so-bold prediction: in a month, things in those two provinces (and Canada in general) will be looking a lot better.

Why is this happening? Nobody is too sure, because all of the variables have been written out of the equation. It’s warm, it’s cold, masks on, masks off, social distancing, easing of restrictions, vaccines. Whereas all of those things are treated very differently around the world, there’s a very evident pattern: Generally speaking, cases rose from February to late April, fell until late June, rose to highs in late August and have been falling ever since. In Canada, we were a little late to the party, so add a month to all of that. But the pattern is there. And so, Canada numbers will continue to go down, the border will open and Canucks fans will flood to Seattle for games and we will all be back to normal.

No, not quite… but given vaccinations and the pattern above, there’s reason to be optimistic. Those two things imply that the worst is over. And yes, it could change again. Pick an as-of-yet unused Greek letter, attach “variant” to it, and a frightening Rø, and you can throw the optimism out the window. There’s the other broken clock. We simply don’t know what we don’t know… and that’s why the bell keeps ringing, and will do so till the end of time.

Like the song ends, and like we might all be feeling, drifting with the current, destination time and place unknown…

With friends surrounded
The dawn mist glowing
The water flowing
The endless river
Forever and ever

Ding… ding… ding…

October 13, 2021

By |2021-10-13T21:58:08-07:00October 13th, 2021|Categories: COVID-19 Daily Report, Follower Favourites, Science of COVID-19, Life in Vancouver, Interesting Words, Movies, Music & Entertainment|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |0 Comments
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