March 22, 2021
Here’s what seems to be a logical progression… some witty/smart/creative troublemaker comes up with an idea and “puts it out there”. The idea enters an echo chamber of like-minded people who welcome it with open arms. The idea gets tossed around, talked about, enhanced upon… grown in different directions, exaggerated and then commandeered to suit the narrative of whoever is propagating it.
Eventually, the original source of the idea backs away… but that’s now irrelevant. Those who need the idea to exist hold onto it and continue to manipulate it to their heart’s content. When logical people argue against it, they get shot down. When those believers are told it was all made up and whatever was said originally simply isn’t true, they refuse to accept it. When the original guy comes out and says, ”Hey, I was kidding”… believers will assume he’s bought out/paid off/threatened… whatever. Then that person backs away from the mess they’ve created, and all that’s left is a big mess of people believing nonsense they want to believe.
Every single conspiracy theory imaginable can trace its origins to something like this. Some religions as well.
But also… good old common fake news.
The former president of the US made “fake news” a thing. I don’t think any of us had heard those words until Donald Trump began uttering them on an hourly basis, a response to anything that didn’t fit his narrative. And now it’s become the de-facto argument for when people disagree with something to which they have no counterargument.
This follows-up on yesterday’s post, because in reading what people have to say about the AstraZeneca vaccine, one thing is now clear. It was smeared briefly with misinformation, and that smear, for those who want to believe it, will never get polished off. There is no science, no data, no version of facts that can now be presented to someone that’d decided that the AZ vaccine causes blood clots. AZ vaccine causes blood clots in the same way water and fresh air and blinking causes blood clots, but nobody wants to hear that. If vaccines are evil, here’s one more gargantuan piece of evidence. Forget that it’s wrong; that doesn’t matter. Of course, scientists will tell you it’s safe, etc etc.
What can you do? Actually, nothing. I saw a piece of a reported wandering into a restaurant in a very red state; a 90% Trump-voting district. He went in there and asked for a show of hands… “Who’ll be getting the vaccine?”
Not a single hand from the dozens of unmasked people. Not one. He then interviewed a few of them and asked why not… and got the usual answers you’d expect… they’re trying to poison us, they’re trying to control us, they’re trying to kill us… or, it was rushed, it’s not safe, there’s no covid, fake news, etc.
One person was asked the exact question I wanted to hear answered: “If Donald Trump today came out and said to do it… like he did… he got the vaccine, albeit quietly without telling anyone… would you then get the vaccine?”
That particular answer: “No way… why would I listen to Trump? He’s a Liberal New Yorker. Can’t trust him!”.
“But you voted for him.”
“Whatever.”
This is not a “steep uphill”… it’s a vertical, slick and slippery and unclimbable wall. Not even worth trying.
March 21, 2021
Two wrongs don’t always make a right… but three rights make a left! – a good rule to remember when it’s between 3pm and 6pm and you really need to turn left… but all the signs prohibit it. Skip ahead a block, turn right a few times… and you’re set.
But… back to two wrongs… first, there was a lot of misguided bullshit about the AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots. Then, secondly, as a result of that, the European Union halted it “till further notice, out of an abundance of caution”…. caution of what? Caution of exercising critical thinking? Caution of not overreacting? Caution of not undermining a global initiative?
That all lasted a few days until some clearer thinkers came along and said, “Wait… wtf are we actually doing here…” but, by then, it was a little too late. A lot of time, and a lot of confidence, was lost.
The EU did the expected 180 and AZ vaccinations are ramping up. In fact, now, the EU chief is threatening to ban exports of AZ vaccine until Europeans can first get their hands on what they need. You know, the stuff that a week ago was considered toxic.
But, it’s a little late… not just because some of their vaccine rollouts have been significantly affected, but because a lot of that vaccine has already been shipped out, and it’s been sitting on U.S. shelves… and the U.S. has yet to approve the AZ vaccine… and so, rather than let it expire, they’re sending it off to be used… to Mexico, and… to Canada. We are getting one point five million doses of AZ vaccine, and that will most certainly accelerate things on this side of the border.
I said two wrongs… but reading back on all that, it took more than just a couple.
The result of all of that is now the EU’s problem, and it’s to our benefit. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes an abundance of caution is called for… but this entire episode (whose consequences, here in Canada, we’ll gratefully accept) could’ve and should’ve been avoided. A little bigger-picture thinking is called for, especially when the stakes are so high. It’s not a question of breaking rules; it’s a question of understanding when to apply them.
Like, for example… you want to turn left and it’s 4:30pm and the little red-slashed-circle says no, don’t do it… but there’s nobody coming and there’s no cop behind you. I’ll be honest… sometimes… temporarily banning myself from making that left turn makes as much sense as temporarily banning the AZ vaccine.
March 20, 2021
Last Summer, there was a question I wanted to ask Dr. Henry… it was after the big initial wave had died down, and things looked ok at the time, but Dr. Henry kept warning about the impending second wave in the fall (which certainly happened) and how it would overlap with “respiratory season” (which didn’t… more below) – the time when all of us get sick and numbers always spike up, just not so seriously.
Colder temperatures leading to lowered immune systems, the climate where viruses thrive, people being inside more and in closer proximity… it’s annually the combination to leads to everyone, at some point, catching some version of the sniffles.
The question that I wanted to ask was… why would we expect anyone to be catching colds and flus from each other? With masks and social distancing and hand sanitizers everywhere, how would it work? Like how would we transmit a common cold to each other… but not C19?
The question was eventually asked by one of the reporters at one of the daily update briefings, but the answer wasn’t too convincing, from what I can recall. It was a bit vague… more to do with those illnesses being more contagious, etc… but still, they’d have to be pretty darn contagious to make their way past a lot of defences we’d all put up.
As it turns out, nature answered the question better… which was, there was next to no “respiratory season” at all. Speaking for myself, I inevitably get sick at some point over the winter… and I can usually tell you where or from whom I caught it. Stuck in a crowded ski lodge for an hour with a room packed with heavily breathing people and poor ventilation? Stuck in an airplane for a few hours? Getting infinite kissy-kissies from relatives?
Not really surprised that this year, I didn’t get sick. How could I? From whom? When and where? For the first time I can ever remember, no winter cold.
Did you? Certainly, nobody in my immediate circle got sick with any virus. A spot of food poisoning perhaps, but nothing contagious.
Which leads to ask an interesting question, one that Asians answered centuries ago… but we didn’t follow suit: Are masks now going to become much more normalized in Western society? They most certainly will not be mandated, but it’s the same as sunscreen… no one should be giving people dirty looks for doing whatever works for them… and I wonder… how common will masks be on planes? On public transit? These habits that we’ve normalized actually make a big difference. Forget C19 and the risk of death; let’s just talk about the risk of inconvenience. The risk of catching a cold, perhaps having to miss work or some event you were looking forward to.
And I do get it, some people will say to hell with it, I don’t care about catching the sniffles for a few days if it means I don’t have to worry about it after that. Just catch the seasonal cold, get it over with, and get on with your life. Makes sense too.
I’m undecided, to be honest. Chances are, if I don’t take it seriously always… ie, all the masks and social distancing and hand sanitizer I’m doing now, I’ll probably catch something at some point… and, therefore, what’s the point at all. That’s probably my version of it; get the seasonal flu shot, which from now on will be juiced up with the latest and greatest C19 formula… and go back to living… with a little bag of Kleenex in my pocket.
March 19, 2021
Chaos Theory is an area of math that deals with complex systems which seem to appear to act randomly because of the unpredictable nature of what’s being observed… but, in reality, there’s a very well-defined set of deterministic rules underlying what’s going on; it’s just that the initial conditions make all the difference… and, minor variances in those initial conditions change everything.
Indeed, that’s where the concept of the “Butterfly Effect” comes from… that a little butterfly flapping its wings in Japan today might be responsible for a hurricane on the other side of the planet next week… and it’s true. Weather is a hugely complex chaotic system that the world’s biggest supercomputers endeavour to model and predict… and that’s exactly what they’ve found. Sneeze at the wrong time, and everything changes.
Without getting into an entire philosophical discussion about Free Will — whether everything is pre-determined or not — I think we can agree that your one little action today can have a profound effect on the entire planet, without you even knowing about it. You showed up a few minutes late to your dentist appointment, which set the whole schedule back a bit… and some patient three hours after you had to wait, and then was late leaving and had to hurry back to some meeting, but was speeding and caused an accident… nobody was seriously hurt, but the paramedics that were called to the site would’ve otherwise been able to attend to some old guy who had a heart attack… and that delay meant the difference between the old guy living and dying. See? Don’t be late to your dentist appointment.
And what if that old guy that died was the swing vote in parliament with respect to a bill that would introduce sweeping changes with respect to environmental responsibility… and now, without his vote, the bill doesn’t pass… and it has to wait seven years to get passed, by which time it’s too late, the planet is doomed. Antarctica melts, sea levels rise, global temperatures go off the charts… all because you, seven years ago, couldn’t be bothered to show up in time. Way to go.
Interestingly, there’s now some evidence that this entire pandemic could easily have been avoided… could easily have never happened… if only a few key things hadn’t aligned. Like, the initial patient zero… if that guy hadn’t gone to that Wuhan wet market, and just stayed home because he wasn’t feeling well… and/or if he’d gone to the market but not interacted closely with the one or two people he infected… and/or those people, in turn had stayed home or been elsewhere or not breathed right at that moment. Who knows. Unfortunately, all of the stars aligned in the worst possible way… the necessary initial conditions… and here we are.
Not that there’s anything we could’ve done to prevent it, of course. This chaotic system we live in, whether it’s a simulation or reality of an invention of our consciousness… whatever it is, we’re at its mercy. We just do what we do, and things happen… c’est la vie. What can you do with this life? …just live it.
But also, seriously… just in case, don’t be late to dentist appointments. It can really mess things up.
March 18, 2021
As I like to say (and have experienced numerous times in my life), the first 90% of any project takes up 90% of the time, effort and resources. Then, that last 10% actually ends up taking 90% of the time, effort and resources to finish the project. It’s so incredibly easy to start something, but as time goes on, everything becomes a little more difficult… and continues on that path, with every aspect becoming a bit more challenging as time goes on. The “Time/Effort” graph looks exactly like the exponential growth graphs we’ve been trying to avoid for a year.
Ironic that as we approach the finish line of this pandemic, that’s what the end of this adventure is beginning to look like; in some places, because cases are once again growing at an alarming rate… but even where they’re not, the “We’re done with this” attitude of people who’ve already “checked out” of the effort. The “Forget everything, we’re fine” crowd reminds me of the people who start bailing on projects in that final 10%, because they figure they’ve done enough… the momentum will carry it through to the end, other people will pick up the slack, and so on. I don’t think I need to spell out what happens when a critical mass of people suddenly all switch to that mindset.
You’d think if you have a bad infection, the worst thing you can do is leave it untreated… while the best thing is to throw some antibiotics at it and cure it. But actually, the worst thing is to throw some antibiotics at it in a half-assed way, and then drop it because you yourself came to the brilliant conclusion that you’re cured, even while the doctor, pharmacist, Google and everyone will tell you: Take the antibiotics for the entire recommended course. Do not leave a single pill behind, even if you’re feeling 100% and think you’re cured.
If you don’t stamp out the infection properly, then the 90% of the bugs you killed won’t hurt you, but the 10% that are left… the strong ones… will be happy to make a re-appearance. These are the 10% that were tough enough to withstand your 90% effort in dealing with this in the first place, and now they’re mad. And resilient. Now you’re back to square one, fighting a tougher opponent.
We are at the 90% point now in this pandemic, but that 10% of rapidly-growing variants could quickly become the 90% of cases, and then we’ve all taken a huge step back. While we’re well-down the path of vaccines, if the new variants require a booster or a modification or whatever, we’re back to trying to vaccinate everyone… and now it’s also a steeper uphill because the anti-vax crowd will use it as ammo: “See, vaccines are useless! What, we’re going to need a new one every year?” – yeah, ironically, because of their attitude, we might. The people who tell us we don’t need masks will be responsible for us all needing masks. The people who tell us we don’t need vaccines will cause us all to need them.
An awful lot can happen in the last furlong of a horse race, something to which a lot of people reading this can attest. The best thing any jockey can do is put themselves in a position to win, do what they can… and hope things work out… though there’s always plenty outside of their control that will enter the story. 90% got them to the head of the stretch, perhaps in first place. But that last 10%… where we are now… this is where it gets real. This is where the race is won or lost.
And… this is not a project any of us want to throw out and start over.
March 17, 2021
March 17th… St. Patrick’s Day, of course. Many, many years ago, this would’ve meant a green Shamrock Shake at McDonald’s. Years after that, it would’ve meant green beer pub hops, though I must admit those memories are pretty hazy. In recent years, a pint or two of Guinness.
Last year, none of the above. Last year, right at this time, a state of emergency was declared, and, instead of imbibing pints, I was reading through a bunch of stuff, like the rest of us… trying to make some sense as to what the hell is actually going on here. It led me to find an interesting little table of numbers… showing how Italy had gone from 100 cases one day to 1,000 in less than a week to 10,000 about 10 days later… and how the U.S. growth in cases was mirroring that, step by step, only 11 days behind. I wondered how Canada would compare, so I found the data and lined it up… and to make things easier to visualize, graphed it. And realized we were on the exact same track, a week behind the U.S. And thought, simultaneously, “Wow, cool”… and, also… “Holy shit”.
I thought it worthy enough to post… and since enough people were interested to see how it would evolve, I resolved to update it and post it at 5pm every day. And I resolved to myself to update this thing for as long as I could… ie, the end of the pandemic.
Facebook was kind enough to remind me earlier today, so I didn’t have to scroll back 365 articles to find it. It’s reposted below this. That lame little graph and tiny columns of numbers pale in comparison to what I’m cranking out these days, but I must say… I felt dread looking at those graphs for the first few weeks.
So, yes… that was exactly a year ago… and during that time, I have posted the ever-evolving numbers and charts and details exactly 365 times. Yeah, I find it remarkable too – I haven’t missed a day. I’m a computer guy, so the numbers and graphs are now at the point of complete automation… click-click-click and today’s picture and numbers are ready to upload. That’s the easy part. But what’s more remarkable is what you’re reading right now… because behind this, there are 365 versions of my rambling, extemporaneous (adj. spoken or done without preparation) thoughts… some serious, some funny, some confrontational, some informative… and all of it, coming from a place in my brain I truly didn’t know existed. I keep saying I need to slow down, and one year would mark a good cut-off… except, you know what… I enjoy it too much. It’s fun to sit down here and just unload whatever my brain decides is worthy of providing for public consumption.
For me, the unfortunate aspect of the end of the pandemic (let’s find a little cloud in a huge silver lining) is that I’m having less and less time to write. And there’s lots of other stuff I’d like to be writing too. A book (that has nothing to do with any of this) will emerge from this keyboard one day, and I’d like to devote some time to that.
But… yeah, I’m not going anywhere. Until this pandemic is over, I’ll be around posting this… which today is relatively long, but often will just be a placeholder for the numbers and pictures. And looking back, those numbers and pictures sure tell a story. And these stories that go along with them; they also tell a story, haha. Reading through a bunch of them just now, there’s a common thread… and it’s like I’ve been saying all along… we’ll get through this, together. It’ll all be ok… eventually.
You often regret getting on the roller-coaster in the midst of that first, huge drop… or during those tight loops that impose enough G-forces on you to think you’ll pass out… but once the ride over, and once you can once-again walk straight and you’re not feeling nauseous… part of you is happy you went for the ride, if for no other reason than you can tell everyone you did it… and made it out alive.
And… so it’ll be with all of this… especially now, with a finish line well in sight; let’s not paint it rosy… it’s been a year of hell, and a year that has been catastrophic to many people’s lives; their health and their livelihoods altered in ways they’d never imagined. Nothing will make up for it, and the healing will take decades.
But, you’re still here… and, while this pandemic still rages… or, at least, till it’s snuffed out… so am I.
I raise my pint of Guinness to you: Cheers! … to a better year ahead. And see you tomorrow.
March 16, 2021
As I’ve said before, instead of “Do unto others…”, I much prefer the subtle but distinctly different: “Don’t do unto others… as you’d have them not do to you.” In other words, don’t impose your crap on others… unless you’d be happy with them doing the same.
So… for those who keep screaming about their human rights with respect to masks, perhaps it’d be easier to shift in your mind the mask to something like a big cigar. A huge cigar, just to make it a little more offensive… one of those gigantic Cohibas that Fidel Castro used to smoke.
Now, imagine you, flaunting your anti-mask awesomeness, sitting in Starbucks, glaring at anyone that gets close to you, let alone tries to address your masklessness. Now imagine me… I wander in with my gargantuan cigar, puffing away, and sit down right next to you. You start screaming at me to get the hell away from you. In fact, obviously, the entire coffee shop, customers and baristas alike, are all yelling at me… “WTF do you think you’re doing!”, “Get the hell out of here!”, “Hey, that’s Cuban, there’s an embargo, I’m going to have you arrested for treason!”
First of all, this is Canada… so Cuban cigars are available everywhere… and let’s at least agree on something: That’s hardly the issue.
The issue is, I’m invading your space (and everyone else’s) with this foul stench that you find indescribably awful, toxic and unhealthy. Fair enough, many people can’t stand cigar smoke, and why should I have the right to exhale it all over you. In fact, there are laws protecting your rights specifically because it’s known that not only is it unpleasant for many people, but it’s also a health hazard. Appropriately, it’s banned in public spaces and it’s banned in private places to, to the extent that the owner of said private space is entitled to make their own rules.
We all agree that in my own private space, I can do whatever I want. I can sit on my deck and smoke cigars all day long, and nobody can do anything about it… nor should they able to… and nobody should care, either. It’s my business and it’s not hurting you and it’s not being imposed upon you. And if I invite you over, you’re free to stay… and perhaps enjoy your own cigar… or you’re free to leave. Can we please agree that you’re not entitled to tell me to put out my $40 cigar? My house, my rules. Starbucks’ house, Starbucks’ rules. SkyTrain’s house, SkyTrain’s rules too.
There’s a remarkable 11-minute video of a woman on the SkyTrain who refuses to wear a mask and refuses to leave the train. A policeman, very calmly and politely tries to explain this to her, repeatedly… certainly with more patience than I would… but, even so, it escalates to her assaulting the officer and getting arrested.
I am certainly at the point where I understand the fact that someone who, these days, is still refusing to wear a mask… is someone who will never wear one. So… it’s pretty simple. You stay away from me, and I’ll stay away from you. I don’t have the right to tell you to put on a mask, you say… well, in my home, I do. In my place of business, I do. And I have the right to tell you to go away if you don’t want to play by my rules.
This is a pretty good comparison. The difference is that we can all see and smell cigar smoke… so it’s blatantly obvious when it’s headed in your direction. Not so with tiny virus balls, but the fact we can’t see them doesn’t mean they might not be there…and you have the right to be protected from it. It might help people to understand the concept that a mask requirement is a bit like a no-smoking sign. Just like you can’t expect to smoke somewhere, because you may be breathing something dangerous on people… these days, for now, you might be doing exactly that and not know it. Doesn’t everyone else also have the right to be just as protected as you are?
I think so… and I’m not just blowing smoke here.
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March 15, 2021
Beware the Ides of March… happy March 15th. Indeed, one day after Pi Day comes Die Day… at least, that was the case for Julius Caesar who, on this day 2,064 years ago, quickly realized that unfortunately, sometimes even your best and loyal friends can literally stab you in the back.
It’s good that politics, at least around here, have evolved beyond that. The House of Commons would be quite a different place if that were still an accepted method of resolving disputes.
One dispute that continues to make some waves has to do with the AstraZeneca vaccine… the opinion of which seems to widen with each passing hour. More people vehemently say there’s absolutely nothing wrong with it, yet more and more countries continue to “cancel” it.
I wrote about it yesterday, so let’s update this evolving story. In Europe, 17 million people have received the AZ vaccine. 37 of them developed blood clots. That is 0.00022% of the population. One in 460,000 people. The typical European rate is actually significantly higher than that. I wonder if this story can turn a 180, where suddenly people realize that the AZ vaccine significantly lowers the risk of blood clots. I’m not a doctor, of course… just looking at the numbers. But that’s what they imply.
This is a great example of politics versus medicine. The science, the data, the everything battle tested says it’s safe; more than safe. The politicians who need to cover their asses always like to play it safe, so once those dominoes start falling, “the optics” dictate you need to follow suit. If eleven countries have decided to suspend it “out of an abundance of caution” (and to hell with the data, such as that analyzed and reported by the World Health Organization), and you’re the leader of the 12th nation, what are you going to do? Even as the scientists tell you… it’s fine, it’s ok, here’s the data… yeah, you’re going to cave. This is high-school peer pressure on a global level. Look around; everyone is putting up their hand. What was the question? Who cares, follow along, don’t look like the idiot.
Unfortunately, as I wrote about and am now believing more strongly by the hour, this might have a profound effect on what C19 looks like in the coming weeks in Europe.
Around here, as much as there are people who’d like to jab a dagger in Trudeau’s back, I applaud his resoundingly unambiguous statement endorsing the AZ vaccine, and I applaud the reliance on the suggestions coming from Health Canada – not the obscure political PR analyst firms in Ottawa.
Sunny day here in B.C…. and we get an extra hour of it… and, nicely trending numbers over the weekend. All of that pointing in the right direction.
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May 12, 2021
A few months ago, I was talking about vaccine envy… how all these people around the world had access to vaccines, and we didn’t. The natural consequence of that is to develop “reopening envy”… which is something we’re going to see a lot of in the next few months. Sure, we’re all getting vaccinated at a record pace now… but we’re months away from everyone being vaccinated, and even longer for getting back to normal.
I’ve been hearing from friends around the world, but you don’t need to go far. Wander into any nightclub in L.A. and it’s like 2 years ago… crowds, no masks, party time. “How irresponsible” you might think… except every single person in there has been fully vaccinated, and their second shot was several weeks ago. This is what the world looks like when things go back to normal, so don’t be shocked; it’ll take some getting used to after more than a year of paranoia, but if there’s any silver lining to being effectively last in the first world with getting back to normal, it’s that when we get the all-clear, the world will be waiting for us with open arms… because we will pose zero risk. Vaccination works, and the places who’ve been doing it for a while are now reaping the rewards. The U.K., where daily cases are down 99% and daily deaths can be counted on two hands, is set to significantly ease restrictions in 5 days… and, assuming that goes well, is set to fully re-open June 21st, the first day of summer. And fully reopen means just that. Fully. Full blast. Restaurants, clubs, theatre, concerts, museums, sporting events. No masks. Life as we once knew it.
We get to watch from the sidelines because we’re behind, but… rest assured, we’re very much heading in the right direction. Locally, more than 40% of B.C.’s population has been vaccinated… and that’s counting everybody. If you count only those who are currently eligible (18+), the number is over 50%… and we start approaching the lower levels of assumed herd immunity at round 70%.
Also, if you look below… I’ve thrown my two vaccination graphs. The one of the left shows the comparison between us and the U.S. with respect to daily vaccinations… what percent of people … [Continue Reading]
May 11, 2021
Since 1980, the Vancouver Canucks have won fewer than 10 Stanley Cups. Also, since 1980, the Edmonton Oilers as well… have won fewer than 10 Stanley Cups.
While both of those facts are entirely accurate, they certainly fail to convey the real picture. But someone who’s not too sure can make that blanket statement, and nobody will argue it… though it might make you wonder if the person who said it actually understands what they’re talking about.
Similarly, the CDC has announced that “less than 10 percent” of C19 transmission is occurring outdoors. This number was picked up by the media and repeated… and has become the “de-facto” standard accepted description for the frequency of outdoor transmission. And sure, it’s without-a-doubt – accurate. The number is most certainly less than 10%.
What’s the real number? The actual number of documented outdoor transmissions may actually be lower than 0.1%, and even that is questionable. It may be a lot lower than that.
Part of it is defining what’s an outdoor space. A poorly-ventilated tent is not an outdoor space, though some stats have classified it that way. A huge outlier in outdoor transmissions has been data from construction sites in Singapore. For example, one particular study of over 10,000 worldwide instances of transmission found that only 95 of them were outdoors… and all 95 of them were from construction sites in Singapore. What gives?
That’s pretty simple, actually… those guys work outdoors in the hot sun, but eat lunch and congregate and relax in cool construction trailers, sometimes for lengthy periods of time. But since the job overlaps with indoor and outdoor spaces, and the classification needs one or the other, they erred on the side of caution and labelled it outdoor.
This erring on the side of caution is a problem, because it’s led to a lot of confusion and uncertainty. What exactly is risky? When exactly do you need a mask?
What the evidence is showing (though the guidelines still have to catch up) is that the highest risk – perhaps the only risk – is indoor spaces, especially ones that are poorly ventilated. Should you wear a mask while shopping? For the moment, absolutely. Vaccinated/not vaccinated/healthy/recovered… whatever… wear a mask. And understand why being in a crowded restaurant or bar for several hours is a … [Continue Reading]
May 10, 2021
As expected, Dr. Henry spent a lot of time today talking about data… withheld, public and/or otherwise. My opinion hasn’t changed; as mis-interpreted as “too much data” may be for some people, I’d still want it to be out there. I understand the arguments against sharing everything… and I could probably strongly argue that side of it as well… but as much as I’d understand the reasoning, I still wouldn’t agree with it… and, anyway, going forward, more data will be made available. Good… I want to see it.
And looking at numbers around here, there’s reason to be optimistic. Vaccination rates are the highest ever, and going full blast… and case numbers, while still relatively high, are trending downward. Twenty deaths in three days isn’t great, but that’s due to the high case counts two weeks ago. If the present trends continue, the numbers will continue to dwindle down… and restrictions will be lifted and restaurants will open and some semblance of normalcy will slowly start crawling into sight… and perhaps we’re at the point where taking everything into consideration, we can measure it in weeks, not months. In the next few days, we’ll start seeing some tentative plans of how things might look sooner than later; we might see some positive, welcome changes shortly after the long weekend.
As much as it’s impossible to please everyone, the fact is… that B.C.’s handing of the P.1 (Brazilian) variant has been top notch. Understanding how it spreads, the restrictions and physical distancing and restaurant closures and gym closures and targeted vaccinations… have prevented what likely would’ve been a far worse outcome. Seeing some of that data that they like to keep to themselves likely would’ve helped explain some of those decisions that for many seemed too drastic. It wasn’t too drastic; it’s what was needed… and it’s what’s optimistically paving our way out of this.
Cautious optimism is certainly better than reckless pessimism… of which there’s still plenty around. Looking forward to that disappearing too. We’ve all had enough.
May 9, 2021
Yesterday’s post was fun… I will do that more often. Congrats to Alexandria McQueen… whose guess of “Maldives” is good enough to with the $100. The rocket didn’t actually hit the islands — whose entire size is tiny; about the same as Vancouver/Burnaby combined — but it’s possible a tiny fragment did. Good enough – good call, worthy of the prize. Win Win.
In the meantime, locally, what a beautiful day… spectacular weather, perfect for celebrating Mother’s Day (Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms!!)… though any day with weather like this around here is worth celebrating, eh… ain’t that the truth.
Speaking of truth… Правда – aka Pravda – aka *the* Russian newspaper for over 100 years.
Throughout the history of the Soviet Union, and especially during the heights of The Cold War, it was the only official source of information for the Soviet people. It’s the one that would be tacked up on the streets and in Red Square for people to read. It’s ironic that “Pravda” means “Truth” – and the paper was anything but. It was, as you’d expect, the carefully crafted narrative that the Soviet leadership wanted out there. The Evil West, the awesome Soviet Union, etc.
It’s the paper that, in early 1984, announced that the leader of the Soviet Union, Yuri Andropov, had a bit of a cold and would be hospitalized for observation. Two days later, he was dead. As it turns out, there was far more to it than a cold, but that wasn’t learned till much later. For more than a year, he’d been suffering with multiple organ failure… and had been in hospital for months leading to his death. Interstitial nephritis, nephrosclerosis, residual hypertension, diabetes & chronic kidney deficiency. Hey, don’t worry, it’s just a mild cold. That was the story until he died, and then it became hard to hide… but at least they managed to push the “Pravda” as far as they could.
His successor, Konstantin Chernenko, started smoking at the age of 9 and was a heavy smoker all his life… leading to emphysema, right-sided heart failure, bronchitis, pleurisy and pneumonia. But he, too, died suddenly and unexpectedly from a mild cold. He’d actually been hospitalized for months.
I don’t know what the Russian word for bullshit is (ok, I … [Continue Reading]
May 8, 2021
We interrupt this regularly scheduled column to bring you a little contest!
As you may know, a nice big unwelcome piece of a Chinese rocket is about to fall out of orbit and potentially hit the earth somewhere.
I will donate, in your name, $100 to the charity of your choice… to the person who picks the country onto which this thing falls.
Chances are, it’ll fall in the middle of nowhere… probably the ocean, in fact.
But in case it actually hits the ground and does some damage… let’s have a little bit of good come out of it.
I like being wrong, so I will start… Canada.
Type your guess in the comments below… we’ll have it all figured out by tomorrow. The contest cut-off is when the news of the impact’s where and when is announced… which should be in the next 24 hours.
