July 2, 2020
This is a personal taste issue…. but to be honest, I never feel more ripped off than when I go to bite into a chocolate-chip cookie, and it turns out to be oatmeal-raisin. I’m not bashing oatmeal-raisin cookies; I understand some people love them… possibly more than chocolate-chip cookies (inconceivable!)… but it’s not my thing. Oatmeal, meh. Raisins… nah. Put them together? Whatever. But… chocolate-chip cookies?! Man… that’s where it’s at. I really like chocolate-chip cookies. I don’t like oatmeal-raisin.
And let’s start with that… there’s a big difference… between… I like X, I don’t like X, I dislike X. All three mean very different things, but we often confuse the last two; “I don’t like something”… to most people means you dislike it. But it shouldn’t.
- I like chocolate-chip cookies (YAY)
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I don’t like oatmeal-raisin cookies (WHATEVER)
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I dislike raw liver (BOO)
The English language fails to address the neutrality of “I don’t like”, which really means the same thing as “I don’t dislike”, but I think it’s becoming more important to recognize it these days, especially because of the polarization that’s taken place with respect to opinions. Nobody seems to be neutral on anything… and this is especially relevant when it comes to associating things that shouldn’t be placed in the same cookie jar, but are. A good example is Trump supporters and masks. Those two things should have nothing to do with each other, but do. If you like Trump, you dislike masks. You don’t “not like” masks… you actually “dislike” them. And yeah yeah, I’m generalizing. It’s not everyone… just most. And by most, I mean like the bar owner in Texas who’s banned masks. While some business will allow you to walk in the door without a mask, this guy will prevent you from coming in if you have one. Similar to the gas station convenience store in Kentucky where masks are banned. Or, an L.A. flooring store where masks are banned, but handshakes and hugs are encouraged. These people don’t “not like” masks. They dislike them… a lot. You know how most people don’t like getting sick… as we’ve learned, that’s not accurate. They dislike it. Many of them will soon be able to make the distinction themselves.
Here is some U.S. data for new cases, averaged over 7-day periods. Up to yesterday, here are the new-cases per-day average for the last 6 weeks:
5/21 – 5/27: 22,059
5/28 – 6/03: 22,260
6/4 – 6/10: 23,426
6/11 – 6/17: 24,001
6/18 – 6/24: 32,747
6/25 – 7/01: 44,989
I was going to say I don’t like what’s going on south of the border, but that’s wrong. Let me be clear: I dislike it… very much.
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July 1, 2020
Happy Canada Day, everyone!! … and as I mentioned yesterday, as always, July 1st also marks that tipping point — the halfway point of the year. Although it seems like ten thousand, we’ve only experienced 184 days in 2020. There are 185 days left.
You know how when you go away somewhere, it always feels like you’ve been there forever… but it’s only been a few days. It has to do with how we perceive time. When you’re doing something new, you’re much more “in the moment”… and you remember it, and you remember the time it took to experience it. As opposed to things we do routinely, on auto-pilot. We barely remember it, and time just flies by. Instead of taking the usual way home, next time, veer into some side streets you’ve never navigated. The 5 or 10 minutes you add to your trip will feel like 30. Simply the result of engaging your conscious brain, which then has to actually deal with what’s being thrown at it… as opposed to letting your subconscious deal with it. This year… every day has been something new, something way out of normal, something to remember. And it’s felt like forever.
So what will the latter half of this year bring? Well, I had a long list of ideas, hopes and aspirations for 2020. I wrote those down in late December, read them on New Year’s Day… and like everyone who made resolutions and plans this year, I couldn’t possibly have been more wrong. The old “Wow… didn’t see that coming…” which gets a fair sure of use during normal times… has certainly been worn out.
I reflect today on the fact of how lucky we are… and by “we”, I mean the majority of people reading this… who I assume to be in Canada, mostly B.C. Across this province and across the entire country, there’s no better day to celebrate that. I can’t begin to tell you what this 154th year of this country will look like, though these days, we’re learning a lot more about the great — and not so great — history of this country. For all the good and bad that went into it, and especially these days. acknowledging the bad… and undertaking to do something about it… this is still without a doubt the greatest country in the world. If you don’t believe me, go visit some others. It doesn’t matter where I’ve been or what I’ve experienced… for me, coming home is always the greatest feeling. Landing at YVR and then stepping outside, and taking a deep breath of that crisp, clear air… Ill never get tired of that.
Indeed, my life in Canada began that way, as a little kid… an immigrant, ESL, a whole new culture. I remember my first day in Canada, back in July of 1974… in detail. I don’t remember the subsequent 17,000 or so days anywhere near as clearly. As per above, you get into a routine… but let’s not take it for granted, and be appreciative of what we have. It’s hard sometimes to do that, because we’re so used to it… but as we can see from around the world, it doesn’t take much to send things in the wrong direction. It’s important to remember that, especially these days… we are very fortunate, and we have a lot to celebrate.
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June 30, 2020
Lobsters are fascinating creatures… they can live to be over 100 years old, they’re fertile till the day they die, they have blue blood, and every other sea creature generally leaves them alone to live their lives. They live long, untroubled lives… unless they wind up in a dirty tank at the front of a restaurant with their claws trapped by rubber bands.
Many years ago I was at a Chinese restaurant and was looking at the menu which was written in both English and Chinese… so I was trying to map the 3 Chinese characters to what they mean. By comparing “Lemon Chicken” and “Sesame Chicken”, I could figure out “Chicken” and then quickly figure out “Lemon” and “Sesame” and verify it against “Sesame Vegetables” and figure out more from there. A fun brain exercise. A fun game of decoding. Anyway, what I think I figured out is that “Lobster” is described in Chinese as “Little Sea Dragon” — isn’t that cute? I was so proud of myself for figuring that out.
Actually, another restaurant story… this one from Costa Rica… a group of us went to a really good restaurant… seafood, of course, right on the beach. We were there for about 5 hours and consumed at least twice as many bottles of wine. And when we were staggering out of there in the wee hours of the morning, we passed the lobster tank near the door. It was full of normal sized lobsters, and one giant monster. One of my friends… Scotty, who is almost certainly reading this… asked about that lobster… how old is he, how long has he been here? And upon hearing the answers, declared, “I’m freeing him!!”
“What, señor?”
“You heard me! I’m buying that lobster right now, and I’m setting him free!!”
So he did. Not a cheap lobster… but we all ceremoniously marched him down to the water and launched him into the pitch-black abyss of freedom. I’d like to hope he made it into deeper water, and wasn’t to be found back in that tank a week later.
Actually, another side-note… there’s a very interesting/bizarre movie called “The Lobster”. If you want a real “WTF was that?!” movie experience, I highly recommend it. Don’t google it or read about it; just watch it… and… nah, ok, no spoilers.
Lobsters… here’s the thing… a lobster is actually a soft-tissued creature that happens to live in a shell all its life. And as it grows, it needs bigger shells. Multiple times in its life, it’ll shed its shell by a process called “molting”, and inhabit the new one it’s been growing. The interesting thing is that it only grows into a new shell when it’s grown big enough to get uncomfortable in its current one. In other words, the lobster only grows as a result of its discomfort. If he were a happy little lobster never pushing his boundaries of comfort, he’d never grow. Which is all, of course, a bit of a metaphor to simply state that as we navigate through life, it’s sometimes when we push through our points of discomfort and challenge ourselves a bit, that we grow. Correction — that’s pretty much the only time we actually grow. Knowledge can come from the outside, but growth comes from the inside. And if we all sit around getting fat and lazy because life no longer poses any challenges, I guess it’s up to us individually to impose some discomfort onto ourselves and make the best of it.
Certainly this pandemic has thrown us all into an unforeseen amount of discomfort; what we do with it seems to be about the only thing left in our control. And to extend the meaning a bit further… the lobster is most vulnerable when it sheds its shell… for a period of time… between a few minutes up to a few hours, he is without his armour… naked and exposed to the world. The epitome of truly uncomfortable. If that’s the way 2020 has left you feeling so far, you’re not alone… but tomorrow begins the latter half of the year… every day is one day closer to being able to look back at this year with 20/20 hindsight (haha, that used to be a lot funnier) and figure out what we made of it. The shell we’re all trying to grow is a silver lining around a pretty big cloud.. what it all ends up looking like… individually, collectively… remains to be seen.
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June 29, 2020
One good thing about Mondays is we get some updated data for everything.. and for the most part, at least in Canada, it looks pretty good. An average of 9 new cases a day over the last few days, here in B.C., though I suspect we’ll see that go up in a week or two. A little family cluster may make a small difference, but Brandi’s?
Those guys were operating with the same sort of license and permission as a pub or restaurant — many of which are open… as opposed to a nightclub, all of which are still closed, as they should be. But from a disease-transmission point-of-view, I’d have to think Brandi’s to be a higher risk than a typical nightclub, let alone a restaurant/pub. Not speaking from experience… but I’m pretty sure whatever guidelines should have been in place… were not being followed, though I’d be curious to see what an acceptably-socially-distanced lap-dance might look like.
Brandi’s is presently shut down, and is likely to remain that way… so we may never know. But I’m sure at least a few people who were there on those nights when they may have been exposed… are not too keen to come forward… and, as such, might themselves become patient zeroes of their own clusters. That “Honey, I’m going to be working late at the office” crowd… we shall see.
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June 28, 2020
I’m not a big fan of countries or provinces deciding to limit their reporting on new cases and whatever else. It’s like they’re deciding what they think we need to know, or want to know. I think we’re all sick and tired of misinformation, and lack of information is the same thing. It’s funny… we used to laugh at places that did this. There were those rather amusing episodes of the Iraqi information minister, during the 2003 invasion… the guy just making it up as he went along, claiming with indignation that the Americans were nowhere near Baghdad — even as, in the background, American tanks could be seen and heard rolling by. It was really funny when it was them. But now, south of the border… the president has been at it for a while, and now the vice-president is getting in on the act… standing up in front of crowds, the media, the world… spewing complete and utter bullshit.
“We have made truly remarkable progress in moving our nation forward,” Pence announced… somehow disregarding the 2,500,000 infections, 125,000 deaths and surging numbers in the majority of states. The worst numbers on the planet. “As we stand here today, all 50 states and the territories across this country are opening up safely and responsibly.” Wow. Now it’s not so funny, is it.
Well, I will do what I can reporting whatever numbers are made available… usual disclaimer, if it’s in italics and grey and smaller font, it’s just a guess. Average, extrapolation, intelligent guess… until I can (hopefully) backfill it with some real numbers. Quebec’s explanation is that they’re doing so well that they don’t need to update things daily. Well, that’s fantastic until the weekly update shows up with a 500% increase. I hope that doesn’t happen.
And looking at the evolving disaster south of the border… where half the people, including those fearless leaders, are telling you “Mission Accomplished!”… while the other half are trying to be heard, saying… no… it’s not. Their numbers are up-to-date. And scary.
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June 27, 2020
Until I run out of interesting words, I’ll keep coming up with them… such as…
Lachesism (noun): The desire to be struck by disaster – to survive a plane crash, or to lose everything in a fire.
It’s an interesting one alright… and perhaps one that’s relatable to anyone who at some point in life has felt like they need to hit a big reset button. There are some interesting pieces out there, written by people whose lives have gotten immeasurably better as a result of this pandemic. Trapped in a low-paying crappy job, or crappy living situation… or both… and with no way out. But suddenly… the job is gone. The bad roommate situation dissolves. The government helps. The online business takes off.
If there’s a lesson to be learned from that, it’s that you don’t have to wait for a huge disaster to start making changes. We’re all aware of what keeps us from making those big, life-changing decisions… usually fear. But it’s interesting… that when that decision gets made for you, people often surprise themselves with the ability to step up and deal with it. If it doesn’t kill you, it makes you stronger… and that often means stepping out of your comfort zone. Some people just can’t do it, but are very appreciative, in hindsight, when what’s on the other side of the comfort zone turns out to be a lot better. They just needed a little nudge. Or a huge, unexpected kick.
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June 26, 2020
Here’s another interesting word…
Mauerbauertraurigkeit: (noun) The inexplicable urge to push people away, even close friends who you like.
The context I’ll use to describe won’t involve a person, but rather an entire province… that being Quebec, who’ve announced they will no longer be announcing daily numbers…. and since they, by far, involve the greatest number of cases in the country… it now messes up all the numbers. I guess I will make intelligent guesses, based on pure speculation and a bit of math… and once a week, there will be a correcting entry to show just how off I am. Italic numbers in shaded grey are just good guesses.
Indeed, it feels like they’re pushing us away… “let us deal with our own issues” — but, of course, it affects us all. The national numbers will be off continually. My opinion… it’s a little too soon for that.
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June 25, 2020
Here are today’s numbers and graphs… and, just for fun, a word of the day to make you think a bit:
Exulansis: (noun) The tendency to give up trying to talk about an experience because people are unable to relate to it.
A pretty relatable word these days… like, everyone is going through their own version of “What is going on?!” — no doubt at some point it’s not worth trying to explain your particular version of coping. This word has been around longer than the pandemic, but it’s never been more relevant.
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November 28, 2020
No local numbers plus sunshine equals a short update today… but on the topic of numbers, Dr. Henry has been taking a bit of flak recently.
For whatever reason, B.C. continues to be the only province or territory that doesn’t release numbers over the weekend… and, as transparent as they claim to be with their reporting, it’s not so easy to get all of the numbers in an easily readable format. On top of that, the worst thing that can happen is to lose trust in those numbers, and a few days ago we learned that a week’s data from Fraser Health was wrong due to technical problems.
Eight months into this, and all other provinces and territories are reporting 7 days a week. I think we could be doing better here, and I’m not going to blame Dr. Henry – she’s not the computer tech in charge of things. But… she is the top of the pyramid for many decisions, and I’m sure she could talk to the right people to do something about it. We’re not talking about needing a press conference seven days a week; everyone is entitled to a couple of days off, especially Dr. Henry… but, by this point, all of this data consolidation and reporting should be on automatic pilot. It’s not like there are 200 counties reporting; it’s a handful of health regions. Those key numbers could quietly appear on the website and/or a press release could go out, and that’s all that would be needed.
On the topic of numbers, I’ve made a guess at what today’s B.C. number will be, and plugged it in so we can see what it’d look like and how it’d affect things nationally. Left of The Rockies, take it with a grain of salt. Alberta and eastward is all accurate and up-to-date… and not pretty, especially Alberta. Some of these Time To Double graphs are getting steeper, though it’s all very inconsistent from a day-to-day basis. Nevertheless, I’ve taken a crack at trying to “bound” the increasing growth with appropriate TTD lines. If you look at the bottom row of graphs, you’ll see what I mean… the TTDs all vary, but give a more accurate view of where things are at.
A summary of what they imply is this: Things … [Continue Reading]
November 27, 2020
If you haven’t already seen “The Queen’s Gambit”, you probably have a lot of people telling you that you should… and they’re right. It’s really, really good. You probably know that it’s about chess, but, like chess itself, it’s about a lot more.
The basics of chess are easy to learn; anyone can learn how the pieces move in less than 10 minutes. But then you spend a lifetime trying to move them well. I’m happy that series came into this household… I only wish it’d been at the start of this pandemic. There would’ve been a lot more quality screen time in those early days.
It was funny… a few nights ago, to hear my son yell for me… “Dad! Help!” – I ran over there… what, is the room on fire? No… he was on chess.com, playing against some guy in Russia, and found himself in a precarious position, not quite sure what to do because he thought he was about to lose his queen. That’s quality father/son time right there, ganging up to beat some Russian in chess. Right on.
I get the impression that Donald Trump wouldn’t be a very good chess player, and here’s why I think that: Chess requires you to think a few moves ahead, and if you can’t do that, you have zero chance of success. Just like in life, if you lead it in such a way that’s entirely reactionary – stimulus/response, stimulus/response… you’re going to have a tough go of it. That lifestyle works well for single-celled organisms, but our real world is a lot more complicated than a paramecium needing to navigate a petri dish. And in chess, if every time you move a piece it gets taken… and then you stare at the board wondering how that could’ve happened… well, you’re doing it wrong.
The stimulus/response pattern of the soon-to-be-former-president is something I guess we’ve gotten used to over the last four years, but now that he’s on his way out, it’s a little more pathetic than it used to be.
Actually, at the start, it was far from pathetic; it was frightening, with real-world consequences.
Early in the presidency, Trump was watching TV and saw something… and then Tweeted about how the new Air Force One is too expensive, and “Cancel Order!” There’s a … [Continue Reading]
November 26, 2020
So at some point in the not-too-distant future, a person says to their robot… “Please go to the grocery store and get two steaks. And if they have eggs, get a dozen.” And the robot goes to the store, and comes back with… a dozen steaks.
This is a popular joke among computer programmers, because they’re the ones who get it right away. Indeed, computers are only as good as what you put into them, and the programming error that would lead to the twelve steaks is a common one. With computers, you need to be specific. You can’t make assumptions. If told to get steaks, it will get steaks. Computers aren’t smart enough to read into the obvious subtext that the human brain picks up instantly… and this is why the errors in the B.C. data that came to light yesterday can only be blamed on human error. Officially labelled “an IT error”, it’s more colloquially known as a “B.C.K. error” – Between Chair and Keyboard. Another common computer saying: Garbage In, Garbage Out. I’m thinking there may be someone looking for a job.
We don’t need to single out the health authority that messed up… but if you’re curious, their name sort of rhymes with “laser stealth”. Or “blazer wealth”. Given that it’s actually the provincial health region with the most cases, screw-ups there could make a difference to where we think things are at. Did it?
The ultimate changes are reflected in today’s numbers; all corrections have been applied, and I’m assuming with today’s data, we’re back on track. If you want to compare, you can flip back to yesterday’s post and see what changed. Side-note, if you’re looking at yesterday’s post, feel free to have a look at the comments, especially near the bottom…
Anyway, after it all shakes out, the end result isn’t too different. The provincial case count is 271 more than had previously been thought, a discrepancy of less than one percent. The interesting thing is how it got there… undercounts *and* overcounts. I could understand if there was data missing every day… or, double-counted, so bigger-than-expected numbers here and there. But both? That’s just… really bad.
The 271 isn’t a big deal, but what might have made a difference would’ve been the “shape” of the numbers. We’d … [Continue Reading]
November 25, 2020
At some point soon, Health Canada will announce the availability of a vaccine. Provincial Health Services across the country are already working on the logistics of providing it to you.
If you ask someone today whether they’ll be getting it, the usual answer is “Of course… but not right away… just want to make sure it’s ok.”
Well… by the time it gets to most of us, it’ll almost certainly be ok. More than ok. In fact, it will have been ok from day 1, where some of the first people to have gotten it would have been at higher risk… front-line workers, elderly people… and they will all be just fine. More than fine.
It’s not an irrational concern; vaccines, as we’ve repeatedly heard, take many years to develop. And, even then, sometimes there are problems. How can this one, super-rushed at every step, be guaranteed to be safe? How can we sacrifice so much time without sacrificing quality?
Part of the answer lies in understanding why it usually takes so long.
First of all, as usual, money. Developing a vaccine isn’t cheap, and isn’t always successful. The millions of dollars it takes aren’t always so easy to find. After the initial idea for the vaccine is thought up, it takes money to develop that thought. A grant gets applied for, and that’s usually not successful… something like the good old 80/20 rule plays out… where only 20% of these proposals actually get funded to proceed. Just getting to that point is a grueling and time-consuming process. Where animal testing will be involved, ethics boards also need to sign off.
In this case, there were no grant proposals. A ton of money was found, and quickly. Bill & Melinda Gates have thrown a staggering $420 million dollars into C19 research. Also, a million dollars that went towards the funding of the Moderna vaccine came from… Dolly Parton. From far and wide, the money rolled in… and what usually takes years (if it happens at all)… took minutes.
This allowed multiple, parallel paths of development. Top minds from every angle tackled this problem, and it was found that developing an mRNA (instead of DNA) vaccine would be the right way to approach things. This inherently saved some time because some concerns that usually need to be addressed … [Continue Reading]
November 24, 2020
Crazy, irrational people have always been around and will always be around. It’s part of living on earth, and as long as their craziness doesn’t negatively affect you, let them do their thing.
That’s more difficult in the midst of a pandemic, because some champion of civil liberties, coupled with a good dose of conspiracy paranoia, can actually affect you very negatively. Like some anti-masking moron who purposefully coughs on you, just to prove the point that it’s all a hoax.
There will come a point when some idiot doing that will be of minimal concern, and, of course, we’re not there yet… but let’s talk about immunity.
The chances of you getting mumps, measles or rubella are negligible if you’ve had the MMR vaccine, properly administered. Properly administered means two doses, and in doing so, the efficacy is 97% against measles, 97% against rubella and 88% against mumps.
Measles is a good one to discuss because the vaccine is so good, yet the illness is so contagious. As per the numbers above, even if you’re in the vicinity of someone who actually has measles, if you’ve been immunized, you only have a 3% chance of getting sick. Conversely, if you haven’t been immunized, there’s a better than 90% chance you’ll catch it. And that’s why even though measles is pretty rare, it flares up here and there… the perfect little storm of someone who’s been exposed, running into a cluster of enlightened Southern-California moms who’d never poison their precious kids with vaccines, when we all know essential oils are all you need to keep them healthy.
Sadly, it’s relevant to note that 2021 is likely to see outbreaks of measles in many places due to missed vaccinations. Around the world, some 94 million children have missed their scheduled vaccines… due to C19. If anyone is wondering how effective vaccines really are, just have a look at the unfortunate measles numbers next year.
When things get back to normal, measles will once again be brought under control. With a coordinated effort, like was done with smallpox, it could actually be extinguished. And the same could be said for C19. Since it’s a virus, in theory… it could be eradicated.
My chances of getting smallpox are zero. My chances of getting measles aren’t zero, but thanks to my … [Continue Reading]