November 6, 2020
To follow-up briefly on yesterday’s poker analogy… we’re at the point where Joe Biden went all-in, and Donald Trump, hesitatingly, called… so Joe flipped over his cards; what’s colloquially known as “the nuts” — the unbeatable hand, because there’s nothing left to deal that can change anything. Trump is drawing dead, and can only helplessly watch the hand play out.
Normally, a player in Trump’s position would realize he’s beaten, flip over his cards, and watch the chips get dragged over to the other side of the table. But, of course, Trump is trying to bluff an unbluffable hand. Perhaps at some point, his fans cheering him from behind will be able to convince him to just face the fact that he lost, and move on. But it’s doubtful. Many of them continue to cheer him on blindly.
Notwithstanding that this may end up being a bigger victory for Biden than was originally thought a few days ago, there are a lot of posts from people wondering how it’s possible that a misogynist racist narcissist whose policies have further divided a country the desperately needs unity – not to mention his abhorrent handling and messaging of this pandemic – could have received so many votes? There are many takes on it, but it boils down this…
First of all, some simple math… rough numbers, some 144 million people voted. Of those, there is an unshakable core of Republicans who’ll vote that way no matter who the candidate. How big is that core? It depends how you measure it. Here’s a rough breakdown of Trump voters:
American Preservationists (20%)
Staunch Conservatives (31%)
Anti-elites (19%)
Free Marketers (25%)
Disengaged (5%)
Within that breakdown, there are probably 40% who won’t be swayed, no matter what. And 40% of 144 million is around 57 million… so really, perhaps it’s only 13 million who “really” voted for Trump… and the vast majority of those are white men, and it must be noted that the urban voter turnout is what probably made the difference. The People Of Colour… Blacks, Latinos, Indigenous peoples… they showed up. In person, waiting hours to vote… or mailing it in… however they did it, they showed up. It’s no surprise that even in many Republican states, the big cities are hubs of blue votes.
On the flipside, the rural areas, many of them populated by people with very different priorities… Immigration, jobs, terrorism, the economy, national debt. Who cares if the leader is a jerk? These are the things that matter to me, end of story. My house and my job and my gun… mean more to me than whatever is going on elsewhere. Any by the way, for many people who’ve never left their own state, let alone country… “elsewhere” is everywhere else that’s not within driving distance. They couldn’t care less what’s going on in Portland or Kenosha.
While Biden got more votes than any presidential candidate ever, in second place is Donald Trump. His seventy million votes is what Obama got in 2008 when he crushed (365 to 173) John McCain. It should be noted that four years ago, when Trump beat Hilary, it was 304 to 227. And this was viewed as a huge victory, a demographic shift, a fundamental realignment, etc. It’s looking like Biden will wind up with almost identical numbers. So while it’s not a Blue Wave many hoped for, let’s not discount the inherent statement being made: No more Trump – spoken quite loudly.
The voting system may need a bit of thought, but there are no easy answers. It’s hard to fix it when there’s no agreement with respect to what’s broken. One thing about the electoral college system is that without it, given how fractured the country is, you might not see a Republican president elected again for a very long time. Biden is ahead by 4 million votes, but Hilary was ahead by 3 million and lost. In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote by half a million and lost. In 1960, JFK crushed Richard Nixon 303-219… but won the popular vote by a ridiculously small margin, like 100,000 votes.
The sad truth is as that the chasm gets wider, like the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, the popular vote gap between Democrats and Republicans will widen… and that will, at least for the foreseeable future, be reflected in the left-leaning popular vote. Biden has his work cut out for him; he’s inheriting a mess on every level. I hope he, and the excellent people with whom I hope he surrounds himself, are up to the task.
A final, unrelated note… when I started writing these daily thoughts 235 days ago, it was supposed to be exclusively a daily update of C19 numbers and perhaps a paragraph with respect to where things are. It started to turn political when my daily research of what was going on south of here went from surprise, to incredulity, to anger, and all of it directly pointed at Donald Trump.
With him on his way out, and hoping Biden and his administration start taking things seriously, the daily bashing of American politics will be far less frequent. We have more important things to worry about. Here in B.C., almost 600 new cases in the last 24 hours… and I unfortunately know one of those people. Also, more than 600 in Alberta. And in Ontario and Quebec, more than 1,000 each.
The U.S. has its stuff to fix… they quietly reached 10,000,000 cases while all of this has been going on… but here, north of the turmoil, we have ours.
November 5, 2020
We often hear that it’s all about the journey, not necessarily the destination. But there are definitely situations where that’s not the case. For example, in poker, I might have the best starting hand… let’s say a pair of Kings. And you have a pair of Queens. Excellent; I manage to get all my money into the pot, and sit back patiently waiting to collect all of your money. I am a 4-1 favourite. I will win this hand 80% of time.
But then… the flop of three cards contains a Queen. What? Why me, always me, just one time… jeez… agh… then turn card is dealt and it doesn’t help me, and now I’m standing up and packing up my stuff, getting ready to leave… and then… King on the river. Boom. I sit down. You go home.
Quite a rollercoaster ride, but… I had the better starting hand, and I had the best hand at the end. What happened in between, who cares. The journey was irrelevant. It’s all about the destination.
And the U.S. election… before it, Biden was heavily favoured to win. As it stands now, it looks like he will, though nowhere near as powerfully as some imagined.
One day, elections… and, specifically, vote counting… will enter the 21st century with the technology available to make it completely trusted by everyone and, more importantly, instantly tabulated. At 7:00:01pm PDT, the electoral map of the United States will light up, reds and blues dutifully coloured in, and a declaration will be made with respect to who was just elected president. That is the indented destination, and it would sure change the journey, and everything that comes with it.
As I write this, the journey continues. The destination has yet to be reached. Biden is presently ahead by almost 4 million in the popular vote, 73M to 69M. On that magical journey to 270 electoral votes, it’s presently 253 Biden / 214 Trump. What’s interesting is that given the trends of what’s left to be counted, this could easily wind up above 300 for Biden. I’m imagining a very plausible 306/232 win.
I say all this because if that turns out to be the case, it’s more of a statement than first appeared. It’s not so squeaky close after all. But this agonizing and stressful journey (for both sides) could have been avoided, and should be in the future.
Depending how you look at it… this journey started on Tuesdsay, or maybe this journey started 4 years ago. Either way, we’re hopefully approaching the end of the line. The turbulent flight. The bumpy train ride. The endless stop-and-go rush-hour commute that should take 15 minutes but takes 90. Enough already. Let me out of here.
November 4, 2020
Yogi Berra liked to say, “It ain’t over till it’s over”. The more sophisticated version of the same saying is… “It ain’t over till the fat lady sings”.
That not-so-PC saying is referring to Brünnhilde, — usually cast as plus-sized soprano — who, after 15 hours of opera (German composer Richard Wagner’s “The Ring”, a 4-part mini-series) has a 20-minute dramatic finale before finally (and spectacularly) burning to death. A somewhat appropriate finale for whatever happens next.
And a somewhat appropriate comparison in that Richard Wagner actually has a lot in common with Donald Trump… numerous affairs, horribly in debt, and terribly racist. Hitler was a big fan. Trump might be as well, though I don’t get the impression that the president gets out to many operas.
So no, it’s not over, though it’s trending against Trump at the moment, and, as expected, he is fiercely lashing out, trying to hold on to the presidency. It was interesting to hear the commentary on CNN late last night, just before Trump spoke, the CNN panelists speculating on what Trump might or might not say. Do you think he’d actually come and question the integrity of the election? Do you think he’d threaten lawsuits? And do you actually think he’d come out and claim victory?
Come on… after four years of this, how can you even discuss it? Of course Trump came out, and did exactly all of that… and even threw out that he’d get the Supreme Court involved.
You know what… I hope he does. I hope he tries, anyway… because one of two things would happen. The first, and by far the likeliest, is that the SCOTUS will tell him to go to hell. Go away with your frivolous nonsense. Every single vote will be counted, period. And that would be a powerful and appropriate send-off to the man who, for four years, tried to stack that court in his favour. Forget the right-wing conservative-leaning court he left in place; he doesn’t care about that. He cares about himself, and counted on these people to save him. And they won’t. Or, at least, they shouldn’t. It would be a final and decisive goodbye, even after the near-corrupt and very hypocritical installation of the latest associate justice.
Or… once again, Trump fools us all and gets the SCOTUS on his side; these jurists who have spent their entire lives upholding the constitution suddenly chucking it all away for Trump. This is exceedingly unlikely, but it’s what would have to happen to somehow declare all votes after midnight invalid in Wisconsin and/or Michigan, but keep counting in places he needs… like Arizona. Of course, none of it makes any sense, but in that scenario… you’d have a corrupt president propped-up by a corrupt court. You’d have a corrupt Executive Branch, propped-up by a corrupt Judicial Branch… which would render the Legislative Branch useless. And at that point, I would agree you’d have to tear-up the constitution, because the U.S. as we’ve all known it is done. Then you start from scratch, once you’ve figured out how to get rid of King Trump; it’d be a nasty civil war because, like it or not, the military would be on his side. Some of them, anyway.
By the way, don’t think this doesn’t happen… the citizens of Chile very recently voted – with an overwhelming majority of 78% — to tear-up their constitution and re-write it.
The thing is… the Chilean constitution they’re replacing was created in 1980 by a military dictator. The new one will be written by committee, pretty much like the American one was written (and has worked quite well ever since) 231 years ago.
Biden is close… but it ain’t over. I can assure you, if Biden loses, he will smile, wave, and fade into obscurity, a long political career done. If Trump loses, he will not go away so quietly… and that’s where things get ugly… but, for everyone’s sake, I would certainly hope that even the most ardent Trump supporters, and his fellow Republicans… Pence, McConnell, etc… would respect the democratic process and support the result, whatever it turns out to be, including shutting down their irrational leader. If he’s voted out, smile, wave, and go face the music that awaits you. The voting wasn’t corrupt. The process wasn’t compromised. The United States constitution isn’t the problem.
It might take a lot of people and a coordinated effort to execute another well-known saying:
“Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke.”
November 3, 2020
Rainy day today… good weather to stay in and watch something. I wonder what’s on tonight…
If your intention is to watch election results, here’s a three-paragraph summary of what to watch for:
By the time you’re reading this, polls on the east coast will have closed more than an hour ago… results may be trickling in… and watching what’s happening there will give you a good idea of where things are going. Florida, Georgia and North Carolina… if Biden wins any of those three, he’s almost certain to win the whole thing. If he loses all three, it probably implies he’s in trouble because it’d also mean the polls were “wrong”, and things are leaning strongly Trump’s direction.
If that happens, the next state to watch is Pennsylvania, where polls close an hour later. Unfortunately, that will be a slow count… and those results may not be known till later in the week. Without Pennsylvania, in the scenario above, Biden is in big trouble. He’d need Arizona, Michigan, and a bunch of other states.
And then there’s Texas… and that could drastically change things. Very heavy voting in Texas, and it’s a close race there. Chances are Biden isn’t going to win Texas if he hasn’t already won some other southwestern state, but who knows. And if Biden wins Texas, he doesn’t need any of the above. He needs what Hilary won in 2016 and that’s it.
That’s all factual, and perhaps that’s all that’s needed for now… simple, and free of opinion. If you know what you’re hoping for, keep an eye on that… and steer clear of the propaganda bombardment.
Of course, well-above and beyond all of that is the acceptance of those results, and that’s a far bigger question mark. The current president won the last election… but has spent four years claiming voter fraud anyway. There’s zero chance of him not disputing today’s results, no matter what happens… and I hope the U.S. is ready for that, and ready to handle it in a way that doesn’t lead to catastrophe.
In 1860, Abraham Lincoln won the election. He pleaded, in his inaugural address… “We are not enemies… we must not be enemies…” Unfortunately, many didn’t see it that way. Eleven states refused to accept his presidency, formed The Confederacy, and plunged the country into civil war.
The list of “What if…?” scenarios is too long to plunge into now. It’s at least comforting to know that voter turnout in the U.S. is the highest ever. People ultimately care, and are willing to do what it takes to have their voices heard. Many of those voices disagree harshly with each other, but that’s what democracy is all about. Let’s hope whatever happens today is the first step towards healing everything that needs healing down there… though it may be many steps on a long, bumpy and uneven path.
November 2, 2020
As a kid (or a very immature adult), the “I was just kidding” go-to is the failsafe to fall back upon when you have undeniably and unapologetically screwed up, but… for your own fragile-ego reasons, you’re unable to take responsibility. So you shift it back onto the person you victimized. “What’s wrong with you? Can’t you take a joke?”
The more mature-adult version of that evolves to things like, “Well… didn’t see that coming” or “Who knew?” or “It was unavoidable” or… the big final F.U. – “Que será, será” – because once you’ve run out of people to blame, let’s just blame the Higher Power or universe in general. Whatever will be, will be.
For those who have egos capable of taking a hit, for whom admitting they’re wrong isn’t a problem, who are clear that their actions have consequences… and so on… it’s frustrating these days. It’s frustrating to hear the same thing over and over from people whose opinions are based on science and fact… and then see those things belittled or ignored, often with those sorts of deflecting explanations.
The blatant disregard for the “bigger picture” was on full display this weekend, and has been for a few weeks… which is why the eyebrow-raising jaw-dropping local numbers of this weekend are certainly not that shocking when you consider that at the same time those numbers were being generated, downtown was flooded with people; crowds voicing the same nonsensical excuses, deflecting responsibility from the problems they themselves are causing. And in two weeks when the numbers are even worse, the same stupid nonsensical rhetorical crap will be heard… “Didn’t see that coming”, “What can you do”, “It is what it is”.
Thoughtless people who are in a hurry to get back to normal, pretending nothing is wrong… ironically are the ones who will prevent it from happening. Notwithstanding the majority of big transmission events are happening in private homes, get ready for restaurant and pub closures again. The only thing that remains to be seen is how much longer and how much worse this all will be, thanks to the thankless, blatant disregard of a few… whose selfish actions will ultimately affect us all.
November 1, 2020
When we get new local numbers tomorrow, I’ll update them, and the little graphs that go with them.
But for today, here are some almost-up-to-date big graphs that show a good representation of what’s going on. The one on the left is the daily new-case counts, layered by province. They all start from a common point; not in time, but when each of those provinces reached 100 cases, back in March or April… and then show what’s happened since then. The one on the right is the same thing, but graphed logarithmically with the top red national line removed. It lets you see the present trends, and how they compare against Time-to-Double lines, as well as each other. The concerning one there is Manitoba, whose angle incline is greater than anyone else’s… but, to be clear, all of them are angling up.
Which brings us to the more relevant point… of last night, and the videos surfacing of what looks like a good old-fashioned Saturday night on Granville St. I’m actually not even sure what venues on Granville are open; I thought they’re all closed for the moment… which leads me to ask an obvious question – what was the point of gathering downtown? Like, to what end? Where are you going or coming from? I don’t mean it to sound like I’m some clueless old fart; this isn’t a rhetorical question. Back in the day, where we walked uphill 5 miles both ways to-and-from downtown, there was a reason. There was a club we were going to or coming from… Luv-a-fair, Twilight Zone, Graceland… it’s a longer list, but the point is – that there *was* a point. “Hey, let’s just go stand around on Granville St.” wasn’t a thing. And in the middle of a pandemic?
“What’s the big deal?”, ask a whole bunch of self-centered clueless people on Twitter and Facebook and everywhere else. People want to party. You can’t keep people inside forever. It’s just a flu.
Those yellow lines on the graphs are B.C. The graph on the right more prominently shows the upward bend that began about a month ago. Note that it’s a logarithmic graph… so things are actually a little worse than how they look here. How much worse can it get? Look at the brown Manitoba line, and what it’s about to do. There’s every reason to believe that we’ll be following a similar trend if nothing changes.
After posing a few questions yesterday and now reading the answers, I realize (as expected) that I’m very much preaching to the choir. Most people believe in science, and the logical conclusions which follow from it. You’ll wear a mask when and where it makes sense. You’ll get the vaccine when it makes sense, ie, probably not right away until you’re convinced it’s safe and not rushed to the public, but certainly will in due course. I agree.
Yet – not everyone agrees… and, as it turns out, this is indeed the simplest way to think about this… if you’re repudiating vaccines and masks, you’re basically saying you don’t believe in the science behind it… which really means you don’t believe in science at all. You can’t pick and choose scientific conclusions simply on the basis of what you want to believe. And if you think the scientific method as a whole is some sort of flawed concept, then there’s really nothing I can say to change your mind.
The answer to the ridiculous rhetorical question of “So what?” will be answered in the next 5 to 21 days as that golden yellow line creeps upward and to the right, its angle of incline slowly increasing.
October 31, 2020
Halloween on a Saturday night – that used to be the ideal as a young adult… get all dressed up in outrageous costumes and party all night and have Sunday to recover. So much so, that when Halloween fell on a weeknight, it was always a dilemma… which weekend, before or after, for the “big” party?
Well, 2020 sorted that out nicely… number one, the parties are tonight, and number two, there are no parties. Or, there shouldn’t be. Or, they should be outdoors, if anything. Fortunately, it’s a beautiful day, and turning into a beautiful evening, around here; gather outside (safely) to your hearts’ content. This will be the last year to enjoy fireworks (legally) – I’m tempted to go out and load up on some serious artillery, perhaps one last gasp of memories from many years ago when we’d do epic fireworks… the sort where, with a friend, we’d have them all laid out, with a synchronized sequence and Pink Floyd blaring in the background; fireworks so epic we’d be finding remnant litter (those little carton tubes and pieces of plastic) 6 months later in the garden somewhere.
Here’s my bold prediction…. by this time next year, it’ll all be back to normal. But I will throw in a little caveat that’ll be sure to bother some people… it *could* be back to normal *if* everyone buys into the solutions, both present and forthcoming.
As I find myself discussing these solutions, these days often with strangers, I’m going to throw out there a few questions… and if you can answer “that’s me” to any of these, I’d genuinely like to hear from you – because I’m gathering opinions and their origins… and I’d like to try to understand your mindset.
Are you anti-vaxx but think masks are a good idea?
Are you pro-vaxx but think masks are unnecessary?
Have you and/or your kids been vaccinated, but you’re considering not taking the C19 vaccine when it becomes available?
Have you never been vaccinated, but would consider the C19 vaccine when it becomes available?
Feel free to reply publicly and/or feel free to PM directly. Neither I nor anyone else will ridicule or belittle you; quite the opposite. I am really interested in hearing diametrically opposed opinions, and I’d like to discuss them.
The more “out there” these writings reach, the more I hear from people whose opinions make me think, “How can you possibly think that? How did you actually reach that conclusion?”. And I’m now well-aware that those are the exact same questions they’re asking of me.
I’m happy to provide my evidence and thought process. Feel free to let me (us) know yours.
October 30, 2020
You’ll notice below that I’ve added Saskatchewan to the numbers and graphs. While their absolute numbers aren’t looking too bad, their trend isn’t great… and, unfortunately, they’ll soon be a relevant part of the national picture. But what’s worse is that they’re sandwiched between Alberta and Manitoba, and looking at how things are going in those two places, it’s starting to turn that corner from concerning to frightening.
Let’s recap a bit, starting with the fact that a Covid-19 infection takes up to two weeks to kick in, and that Thanksgiving in Canada was a couple of weeks ago. What effect was there from everyone who somehow thinks they’re above getting sick or being infectious or “having their freedom taken away”? To hell with this hoax, it’s just a flu, it’s just the government trying to control us, etc etc. Let’s get together and celebrate; it’s no big deal.
Listen… I don’t mind being that guy, the one that you consider to be nagging or preaching or whatever. Standing on my little soapbox, inciting panic by spewing the government lies. Telling you what to do like I’m holier than thou. Maybe that’s the way you see it.
I really don’t care how you view this message… but, to be clear, I’m no different than you – I can get just as sick and infectious as anyone else. I’m trying hard to avoid becoming either of those things, but, evidently, many of you are not trying as hard. Here it is again, in the plainest English possible: if you don’t wear a mask when you should, and if you don’t socially distance, and if you don’t wash your hands and sanitize and do everything you’ve heard 1,000 times from everyone around you that understands the implications of not doing so, this thing will spread. And it will spread exponentially. And we will *all* suffer as a result.
Last three days in Alberta: +410, +477, +622
Last three days in Manitoba: +169, +193, +480
Winnipeg will soon be starting a full-on lockdown; shutting it all down till this can once again be brought under control. The tipping point is unfortunately near, with ICUs at over 90%. When you spill past 100%, that’s where you have patients in hallways, in lobbies and out in the street, dying. Listen to first-hand accounts from ER doctors… pleas of despair from places like Italy, Spain and New York, when that’s what happened. And that was in the spring… let’s not try to imagine what this looks like when it’s 25 below zero… as it’ll be in Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg in the not-too-distant future. Yes, in the past, this was far away… the other side of the Pacific, then the other side of the Atlantic, then south of the border. It is now knocking on the door… “it” being the point of no return.
Sure, call me alarmist. Feel free to point fingers back at me and laugh in a few months when the world didn’t fall apart. Don’t worry, I can take it. And, if in any small way, getting this message out actually helped prevent that emerging disaster, great. I guess we’ll never know; I don’t care. I’ll happily join in your mask-burning bonfires, happily admitting I was wrong… even if perhaps I wasn’t. But that’s not the point… the point is, we can’t afford to be wrong in the other direction.
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February 16, 2021
Today is the day when most of the numbers catch up from the weekend gaps… and one thing is clear; they’re all mostly continuing their trend in the right direction. Cases, hospitalizations, outbreaks. deaths… the numbers tell a good story and the graphs paint a pretty picture. Especially impressive are Ontario and Quebec numbers these days; solidly trending in the right direction.
In the U.S., while possibly some of that can be attributed to vaccines, the numbers (15%) are still too low for it to make such a tangible difference. Among many other potential reasons, it’s… the masks… a policy now in place that would have had a drastic effect on the pandemic. How many lives might have been saved? That’ll be discussed for a long time, but most will agree… it’s a figure with six digits… and closer to seven, not five. Also… we’ll soon be hearing a lot about the current U.S. number of deaths; by tomorrow this time, it’ll have surpassed 500,000.
In Canada, the harsh imposition of what some consider to be overreaching orders are also having that effect. All of the “I just had to go on vacation but shouldn’t be forced to pay $2,000 for returning home” crowd… well, you’ll get little sympathy from me. Trust me, there are times when I’ve felt like saying “to hell with it” and booking us all a nice trip to somewhere sunny. What difference will it make? How bad can it be? I never get too far down the “Quick, before we come to our senses!” line of thinking, but I can see how it gets to people. That being said, that’s an explanation, not an excuse… and when all those 100+ people who flew to Hawaii over the weekend come home and are met with restrictions and derision… well, they’re adults making adult decisions. They can face the adult consequences. All of the restrictions, all of the non-essential travel that’s not going on… it’s making a difference.
On the flipside, some local games-night party with 50 people attending ended up infecting 15 of them, who unknowingly went home and then to work or wherever else, subsequently infecting a host of others. We won’t know how far that little super-spreader event will reach, but when I say all numbers are … [Continue Reading]
February 15, 2021
Given the prevalence of anti-vaxx insanity and the fact that this virus continues to mutate, chances are it’ll be around for a long time. Perhaps forever. But that’s not the end of the world, because measles is also around, and nobody worries too much about it. The vast majority of people are vaccinated against it, and even if you get it, there’s a well-known treatment plan that’ll lessen the symptoms and help you get through it.
Similarly, for all the talk we have about C19 vaccines, let’s not forget that a lot has been learned about treatment, and a lot of drugs have been (and continue to be) developed specifically for that.
Initially, some already-existing drugs were found to have some positive effects. Dexamethasone, Remdesivir and Baricitnib among them, with varying degrees of success. Therapies involving convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies have been found to be very effective. “Potshots” with other existing drugs, such as Interferon and Tamiflu, have not been so successful. Antibiotics, drugs used to combat gout, other anti-virals… the list goes on and grows daily, as more data is collected and analyzed.
Two recent additions to the list are interesting.
First is news from Israel, who have been leading the charge with vaccinations — over 70% (!) of their population have received at least one dose — they’ve developed a drug for use in moderate or worse cases, and the early results couldn’t be more encouraging. Thirty people entered the hospital in relatively serious condition, and thirty people emerged cured… twenty-nine of them within three to five days. The drug, EXO-CD24, specifically fights the cytokine storm, the likeliest C19 complication that leads to death. Good numbers for a Phase-1 study. Onward.
Second is the locally-developed and hard-to-pronounce Bamlanivimab, which is beginning clinical trials locally… though it’s already been used on more than 125,000 patients in the U.S.
The one-two punch of vaccines and effective treatment is what will eventually return the world to normal… when everyone is convinced enough that they’re unlikely to get it, but even if they do, it’ll be no big deal. Given where our minds are these days, that seems like a big leap… but such was the case before antibiotics showed up. We take antibiotics for granted… oh, a little infection, no big deal… take these little pills … [Continue Reading]
February 14, 2021
Happy SnowyFamilyDayWeekendValentinesDay!
You may have noticed how quiet and peaceful it gets when the ground is blanketed by snow. It’s simply due to the fact that snow actually absorbs sound… and, also, the uneven surface helps to disperse sound waves. The opposite of a polished concrete floor is a snow-covered surface – the fluffier, the better.
Two bits of fluffy vaccine news:
One is that the province of Manitoba has ordered 2 million doses of our own mRNA Canadian-produced vaccine; vaccine that’s made in Alberta by Providence Therapeutics. The only slight problem with it is that the vaccine doesn’t actually exist. Well, it does, but it’s only in a Phase-1 trial. Optimistically, Phases 2 and 3 start after May, and counting on emergency authorization from Health Canada in the fall, perhaps it’ll be getting into Winnepegian and Flin-Flonian arms before the end of the year.
Of course, we’ve been told the majority of us in the rest of Canada would have plenty of Pfizer and Moderna available by then, so what this really means is the government of Manitoba saying to the Federal government… “We don’t believe you.” Hard to argue. One thing is clear… one day, Canada will be flooded with vaccine… from what we ordered and from what we’re making. When exactly will that be? Perhaps around the time Hell starts looking like my front yard. At least we’ll have plenty of vaccines around for when this transitions from pandemic to endemic.
The other is that Bill Gates’ daughter Jennifer got her first vaccine dose today. She couldn’t help but crack a joke about it not actually implanting some sort of dad-designed microchip into her brain. It’s funny, but it’s also sad… that enough anti-vax people believe that nonsense to the extent that, as per above, this virus is unlikely to ever go away entirely. At least we’ll have plenty of vaccine supply…
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February 13, 2021
Snow day!! No school!! And also, no local numbers… which of course, snow or not, is always the case over the weekend. And, can I just say… back in the day when it snowed enough to actually cancel school, why did the big snow-dump always happen on a weekend? Not fair.
But, briefly, speaking of numbers and things that are not fair… New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is going to be facing some tough questions. The explanations are inconsistent and the story changes, but the bottom line is that in NY, Covid-19 deaths were underreported with respect to nursing home residents at the height of the pandemic. At its most fundamental level, this is just politics trumping science. Cuomo just didn’t want to look bad to the Trump government and face all the noise that’d be coming his way.
It’s ironic… in that the Trump loyalists, especially at the time, were always the ones claiming it’s a hoax and nobody is dying; that death numbers were being inflated and, anyway, old people are going to die. Had all of this come out sooner, they would’ve been faced with an interesting contradiction… how does one complain that deaths are being overstated… while at the same time, have proof – actual numbers that would provide you with actual evidence to justifiably criticize your opponents – that say the exact opposite?
Except among the truly deluded, long gone are the “Covid death rate is 0.000243%!!!” posts. The nonsense that the flu kills more people, etc. If you’re curious… these days, more people in the U.S. die from C19 in any rolling 10-day period than typically die from flu in an entire 12-month cycle. And this year, that ratio will be sharply higher because flu cases (and deaths) are way down.
Excess deaths in the U.S were around 300,000 between January and October last year… and Covid-19 deaths during that time averaged 975 per day. Since then, C19 deaths have averaged close to 2,500 daily.
At least this explains something that head-scratchingly wasn’t adding up… what are all these American excess deaths attributable to, if not C19?
Yeah… it turns out it was C19 after all.
Oh, some breaking news… I’ll conveniently provide it in the form of a poem:
It’s snowy and peaceful
And time for a book
The Senate acquitted
But … [Continue Reading]
February 12, 2021
As much as I found it boring, I used to jog a couple of times a week… initially on my own, at some point with a trainer… but I never really found it as engaging as cycling or skiing. It’s effective for boosting your heart rate, but it’s also effective at stressing your knees. And it’s more boring… the world goes by a lot slower than when you’re on skis and/or a bike.
To alleviate the boredom, I used to jog to different destinations all the time… take a different turn here and there, see some new sights… different houses, different construction sites, different shops. Engage the brain a bit as well.
And then I came up with something even better.
Imagine a map, and stick a pin on your home. Then imagine a little string tied to the pin… the length of which corresponds to how far you want to jog every day before turning around and heading home (assuming you jog in a straight line, back and forth). If you intend to jog 5km a day, the string should represent a distance of 2.5km…. because 2.5km in one direction, then 2.5km to get back home.
If you put on your high-school math hat for a moment, you’ll recall that the area of a circle is Pi x Radius squared… in this case, 3.14 x 2.5 x 2.5 which is around 20 sq. km… a nice slice of potential real-estate to take in.
But what if you double that radius? What if you run those 5km in a straight line? How much bigger is that potential circle? Close to 80 sq. km… 4 times more cool sights to explore. Of course, then you have to get home… so what I used to do is find a Car2Go 5km from here, reserve it, and jog to it… and drive home. For the price of the Starbucks coffee that I didn’t get instead, I’d just drive home. Sometimes, with little local demand for Car2Gos, they’d start piling up outside the house… till some Car2Go people would come along and scoop them all up. Unfortunately, Car2Go has scooped-up all of their cars in North America, so… so much for that. It’s just not the same with Evo.
You’d think jogging would be making a good comeback during … [Continue Reading]