July 10, 2020
We’re heading up to Whistler today, so this space may be emptier than usual for the next little while…and I’ll update the charts and graphs to the proper size eventually…
In the meantime, a couple of somewhat-related words that come to mind as I watch the world, and its contents, spinning around me…
Sonder (noun) The realization that each passerby has a life as vivid and complex as your own.
Onism (noun) The frustration of being stuck in just one body, that inhabits only one place at a time.
It’s kind of mind-bending when you try to step outside your “existence” – in other words, to truly try to visualize things from any other point of view, other than your own. I don’t just mean trying to understand someone else’s opinion; I mean literally, through their eyes. Stop and consider that every single experience and memory you have is from your own, unique point of view. But it’s more than that; all of reality is only what you’ve experienced. There is literally nothing of existence outside of your experiencing it. If you’ve never seen it or heard of it, until you do, it doesn’t actually exist.
Elon Musk thinks we’re all living in a simulation, and the longer it all goes on (life, in general), the more I get the idea that it’s true. The complexity and vastness of the universe, in both directions… infinitely big or small, feels a lot like the way these vast worlds of online games work… there’s a big map (like our universe), but until you actually need to go somewhere, it doesn’t exist… the game just creates that place when it needs to. It would take way too much memory and disk space for it all to be there. What’s the point of generating all of that for some distant galaxy we can barely see? We’ll create it when we get there… which we never will.
Closer to home, as per the words above… this vivid version of reality you hold in your mind; 7.8 billion other people have their own, unique version of it. It’s mind-blowing to think about, and it’s cool that there are words for it. I have this sonder every time I feel onism.
And if this is a simulation, I get the impression someone found some cheat codes and is trying them out on us. Threat of nuclear war? Killer hornets? Pandemic? Massive political upheaval with the world’s biggest superpower? Something new pretty-much every day. Today it’s a new virus in Kazakhstan, potentially worse than COVID-19. Gee, I wonder what this sequence of buttons does…
This unfortunately has the feel of when someone gets bored with a game. You spent some time building villages or planting crops or whatever… you’ve been doing it for a while, but the game has gotten stagnant or boring… so you throw the crazy at it. Storm the villages, burn the crops. Let’s hope that’s not what we’re dealing with… let’s at least hope that if whoever is running the show got bored, there’s that guy behind him watching… and now, saying, “Wait.. wait… seriously, wait… I got this… here, give me control.” Let’s hope… because then we should be good for another 65 million years… before that guy gets bored and sends a big meteor. Or whatever he needs to deal with his own onism at the sonder he sees on earth.
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July 9, 2020
Isn’t in fun when your credit card info gets compromised, and your card gets cancelled… and you have to notify all 38 different auto-billers of the new card number… such a great use of time. Kudos though, to VISA and MC, whose AI fraud-detection these days seem to work quite well. Instantly flagged were $1,000+ online purchases at a number of high-end fashion retailers. Not quite in character for me.
I got sort-of wrongly accused of credit card fraud one time… I was in Calgary, and just before flying home, I filled up the tank of the rental car at the airport gas station before returning it.
Upon landing in Vancouver, I picked up my car from the parking lot and filled it up with gas at that little gas station wedged between the entrance/exit roads to YVR. This was 20 years ago, before pay-at-the-pump was a thing. In fact, before pre-paying for gas was a thing.
I filled up my tank and went inside, and gave the guy my card. He ran it… and his expression changed.
“Uhh… it didn’t go through”.
“Oh, that’s weird… should be fine… I just used it.”
“I’ll call VISA.”
“Sure… actually, don’t bother… here, I’ll pay cash.”
“Yeah… umm… I’m going to call them.”
“Seriously, don’t bother… here’s the cash.”
But he wouldn’t take the cash, and he wouldn’t return the card. And then I started wondering what little message must have popped-up on his machine… Fraud alert? Destroy card? Call police?
It makes some sense… buying gas 2 hours apart with the same physical card… at two gas stations more than 1,000km apart… ok, that’s fair. We got it quickly resolved… but, in fairness, that should have set off some alarm bells.
You know what else sets off alarm bells, but doesn’t get resolved so easily? Disney World in Florida is opening up this weekend.
Trust me, I am well-aware of the financial problems this pandemic is causing. I’m very familiar with plenty of economic forecasts and cash-flow projections that, at present, have zeros for top-line revenue. Do you know how many companies have zeros up there when they’re planning their budgets? Zero. Because, without revenue, you don’t have a business.
Surviving to live another day has been a well-discussed topic, but I’m not going to write about government incentives or job losses… I’m just going to talk about Disney. Disney is a public company, so they have to disclose a bunch of information, and one of the things they disclose is how much cash they have in the bank… defined as cash, or highly-liquid investments that could be redeemed on short notice. Here’s how much cash they’ve had over the last few years:
2017: $4.0 billion
2018: $4.2 billion
2019: $5.4 billion
Up to March 31, 2020: $14.3 billion
I don’t have a clue where that new $9 billion came from. Maybe they bought lots of shares in Zoom. It doesn’t matter… what matters is… that there are a lot of struggling companies that can’t afford to take a hit, but Disney isn’t one of them. They could most certainly afford to sit tight for bit… especially when Florida is seeing record numbers. Like… scary record numbers. Florida has a little more than half the population of Canada. Since July 1st, Canada has had 2,500 new cases. Florida has had 60,000.
At the risk of sounding a little too socialist… hey Disney, pay your people to sit around for another month or two. You can afford it. But your local hospitals can’t afford what you’re about to impose upon them. They already can’t… 56 Florida ICUs are at capacity, 35 others are at less than 10% availability… as Dr. Henry would tell you, “This is not the time.”
It’s easy to ring alarm bells. But it’s seeming difficult to get the right people to hear them.
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July 8, 2020
I’ve never been a high-school teacher, but like most people reading this, I spent 5 years on the other side of it. And, like most people, experienced the entire spectrum of really good ones to really bad ones. But one thing they (and we) all knew; there’s an inherent power struggle between the teacher and the class, and it’s delicate. A teacher has to be very careful about playing that balance, especially as it’s twenty-plus students vs. one. Too strict or too mean, and they will lose the respect of the class. On the flip-side, too casual and buddy-buddy and they will also lose the respect… and control.
If you’re a teacher and you’re going to fail, it’s probably better to be over-strict and tough and not care what the students think. At least you’re likely to get results, and who cares about the bad-mouthing that goes on about you outside of class. I had many teachers who were that type. I also had a few, the best ones – who managed to skirt that fine line. They were friendly, relatable and fair… and received the respect due to them. They also got excellent results.
And then there were the few – some that lasted less than a year – that lost the class very near the beginning, and from there, they were doomed. There was no fixing it.
One such teacher that comes to mind was my grade 8 math teacher. He was new to the school, as were we all. But unlike all the other grade-8 teachers, this guy wanted to be our friend… and it didn’t take long for that to melt down, into an hour of anarchy every math class. Those 55 minutes were about 15 minutes of us all yelling “Boring!” in unison every few minutes, 15 minutes of him telling us to shut up… “Quiet guys. Quiet please.”, another 15 minutes of him handing out detention time, and maybe 10 minutes of actual teaching.
His technique for handing out detention was unique; he dished it out 5 minutes at a time. Every noise infraction would net someone 5 minutes, 10 if it was really bad, and he would dutifully write it down in a notebook before continuing to teach… only to be interrupted again moments later. And on Friday, he would read out the list of names and how many minutes everyone had earned. I’m not too proud to say that I was usually on that list, often near the top.
One particular day, we were playing rugby… this teacher had also managed to earn the coaching role for some of the grade 8s; the second and third-tier athletes. In my school, everyone had to play rugby, so… like the whole spectrum of great to awful teachers, there was also that spectrum of rugby players. All the way from world-class down to “he shouldn’t even be dressed to play, let alone out on the field”. I was somewhere in the middle, and on this day, found myself running with the ball, unimpeded, toward the goal line. I rarely found myself in that situation and was already celebrating in my mind… when, out of nowhere, I got tackled… hard.
I should add… in rugby, there is exactly one right way to play, and that is… hard. If you don’t go in as hard as the other guy, you will get hurt. This applies at every level, assuming everyone is pretty-much the same weight. There’s a reason why the world-class players are all monstrously large and very fit; they need to out-class the other guys. In fact, one of my classmates went on to play for the Canadian national team and then professionally, in France. He’s probably reading this, and if he is (hey Rich, what’s up), he’d tell you the same thing – you go in hard.
Except when it’s a full-grown adult vs. a 13-year-old. Said teacher probably could’ve taken a bit off the gas pedal… but he didn’t. And, so… instead of scoring a try, I ended up with a broken arm. It happens, and the teacher felt awful about it, but the rumour that made the rounds was that he’d done it on purpose, to sort of get back at me for ridiculing him in class so often. I don’t believe that for a second; he was a good guy. Too good to be thrown into the wolves with the likes of us, to be honest.
But… that cast on my arm earned me a bit of a free pass for a while. I didn’t change my behaviour in class at all, but when he’d spin around to dish out 5 minutes and see it was me — at that moment casually scratching my head with my broken arm, or making faces like I was in pain — he’d pause, roll his eyes, and turn back around. Until one day, either I overdid it or he’d just had enough… this was maybe 6 weeks later. He turned around angrily, and said something like “OK, Kemeny, that’s enough of this. That’s an hour.”
What? You can’t give me an hour all at once. That’s not fair!
Fair or not, he did… but, I should add, it did little to earn back any respect; from me, or from the rest of the class. He did not return the following year.
Like I said, there comes a tipping point when the respect is gone, and it’s never coming back. And so, as usual, as seems to happen with a lot of what I’m writing about these days, I look south of the border and am noticing something that perhaps is new; perhaps that wasn’t there before. A lot of people – who still have some — are losing respect for the sitting president. It’s important to make that distinction… there’s a huge difference between the actual president… and The Office of the President. This has nothing to do with Republicans vs. Democrats. Or the office of the president. We’re just talking about the man himself. Is he worthy of the respect he feels he’s earned? Worthy of a second term?
Trump is slowly losing his core… his unshakable supporters. After his niece’s book comes out, he’ll lose more. My personal view is that the U.S. can certainly survive another 4 years of a Republican-led government; Democrat too, for that matter. But what it perhaps can’t survive is another 4 years of Trump. The country is pretty fractured at the moment, and it’s telling that it’s taking steps to fix itself in spite of the president and his desires, not because of them. He’s lost the majority of the people, and the people realize what they need to do to fix what’s broken.
But healing takes time. My arm took two months. The U.S. will take years… but it needs to be given a chance.
For those who don’t want to see a second term, and can actually do something about it… and are politically strategizing their next moves… my advice: Go in hard. It’s the only way to win and not get hurt.
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July 7, 2020
Word of the day:
Monachopsis: (noun) The subtle but persistent feeling of being out of place.
There’s one we can certainly all relate to sometimes; nice to find a single word to describe the feeling.
An interesting aspect of the Spanish language is the two versions of “to be”. One of them is a temporary state of being, like “Yo estoy feliz”… “I am happy”, as in, at this moment, I am happy. But “Yo soy feliz” would imply that I am always happy, as in a happy person.
Indeed, when you think about it, it makes a lot of sense to be able to have that distinction. “You estoy frio” vs. “Yo soy frio”… I am cold at the moment, versus I am a cold person. “I am cold” could mean either.
I think that word is one of those that probably would always be used in the temporary… it’s not like we always feel out of place. Except, I suspect, if I lived in the U.S. at the moment… I am certain I’d be feeling out of place, and I’m pretty sure it’d be a persistent feeling… especially given how the more polarized things get, the more obvious it becomes that things will never get better. There will be no giant moment of national enlightenment… just people sticking their heads in the sand deeper and deeper.
That’s what I find myself thinking when I read the news… some of what people believe – or want to believe – or want others to believe… it’s unbelievable.
One would think this book that’ll be out soon – the one written by Trump’s niece – might serve to start some change. It won’t; it’ll just polarize things more.
Not like I have any solutions… not like there are any. This whole experience is like one of those mathematical models that you can define, but not solve. You have to actually model it… start things off with initial conditions, and let the complicated algorithm works its way through it. And one day, maybe, you have some understanding. We’re all in the midst of that experiment… and it’s certainly filling me with monachopsis. Yo estoy monachopsis.
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July 6, 2020
It’s so strange… the duality of trying to experience normal things… in this (for now, at least) not-so-normal (NSN) world.
Three months behind schedule, Hastings Park finally opened for racing. It’s been more than 30 years since I’ve missed the opening day at the track. And to miss it on a day where we have horses running is off-the-charts inconceivable. But… no fans – not even owners – and only 25 days of racing… but it’s something. And… might I add… our first horse of the year… running in the very first race of the year…won! Way to go, Molesley. So… for at least 20 minutes, we were the leading owners, and we owned the best horse here. I can also say with certainly, by the time you’re reading this, “It was nice while it lasted.”
Also this morning, in this NSN world, I went for a haircut. I wrote about that experience a few weeks ago, but what hit me this time was the emptiness of the place. I was missing the external chatter that I’m often trying to filter out… especially one of the other hairdressers that’s sometimes there (certainly not today), who speaks Hungarian. I grew up around Hungarian as all four grandparents spoke it, and it was the language my parents spoke to each other when they wanted to discuss something not for childrens’ ears. As a result, of course, I learned to understand a fair bit. What also helped was my grandmother and her sister and their friends, all of whom spoke it to each other, and it especially helped that they always talked about the same things…. like food.
If you want a discussion about food in Hungarian, I’m your man. Where’s the food, what’s the food, bring the food, eat your food, this is great food, this is too cold, this is too hot. Actually, wait – “this is too hot” has never been uttered by an older Hungarian person. They will consume soup that is bubbling and boiling and will peel the inside of your mouth… and insist it needs to go back on the stove a bit longer.
On a few occasions at the hairdresser, I’m treated to overhearing a discussion in Hungarian, and it’s wonderful. Hungarian is a ridiculously unique and bizarre language, easily distinguishable from others… and it’s popped up in the strangest of places… including the racetrack, where a small group of old Hungarian guys used to hang out and yell the most incredible profanities at the horses, the trainers, the jockeys… and each other. It was great fun hanging out near them, overhearing it.
And at the hairdresser one time… a Hungarian couple, the older lady getting her hair done, her husband who’d gotten dragged along complaining about how long it was taking, the hairdresser telling him to shut up and let her work, he complaining to his wife that she promised they’d go elsewhere after but there won’t be time, the wife telling him to shut up and let it get done right, the guy saying that’s it, I’m never joining you here at the hair place again, both women telling him to shut up and stop being such a crybaby. Best haircut ever. Back in the non-NSN days… which will be back, one of these days… small steps, but surprised and delighted to announce this… in Ontario today, zero COVID deaths. Zero. First time in ages. And Quebec, just three deaths.
Like Molesley, Canada was out of the gate quickly and took control of the situation. Unlike Molesley, we haven’t won this race yet… still a half-mile to go… but we’re looking good. I think I’ll go cook some scaldingly-hot Goulash and round out a really good day.
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July 5, 2020
What a beautiful day for a bike ride… so, off I went, on a long one.
Usually, these rides wind up down by the water somewhere… Spanish Banks, Kits, out by Science World, English Bay, Stanley Park. I always manage to wind up at one of them. Today, it was most of them. And certainly, almost always, Vanier Park –- that beautiful, wide-open green space behind the Planetarium. Back in the 90s, when I lived near Granville Island, I was there almost daily. I’d usually walk west from my place… sometimes so lost in thought, I’d suddenly (well, a few hours later) find myself at UBC and have to take a bus back home.
But Vanier Park… there were two reasons I loved that spot. One, my favourite bench (which is still there, overlooking the water) and two… Ray Bethell.
If that name doesn’t ring a bell, it’s about to… because if you were ever down there at some point over the last 40 years, you’ll almost certainly remember the guy whose kite flying was so out-of-this-word that it was hard to imagine that what you were seeing was actually real. The guy flying three kites at once; one from each hand, the third tied to his waist, all three synchronized and doing acrobatics that were hard to believe and astonishingly beautiful.
I got to know Ray pretty well back then, and I’d often stop and chat with him. In fact, when he passed away in December of 2018, I wrote a little bit about it… back in the days when I didn’t post much to Facebook, haha. You can read it here:
https://www.facebook.com/kemeny.ca/posts/10156384761247481
And so today, as I was riding around that corner that used to be his turf, I thought about an interesting aspect of his life; he was older than I am today when he picked up his first kite. He then lived another 38 years… where, over time, he simply became the best in the world. As I wrote in that piece, whether you’ve seen him doing his thing or not, go re-live some memories and/or prepare to be astonished. Just Google the name or find him on YouTube. The dark, leathery tan… the wide grin… the unique cap. A lot of tattoos, with a lot of stories to go with them. And, of course, the kites.
It just goes to show, sometimes you can teach an old dog new tricks. Ray himself had a most interesting life, an eclectic collection of jobs. It was after he retired that he took up kites… which led to sponsorships and world travel and a whole 2ⁿᵈ act of his life.
Especially for those from whom this pandemic has been a life pause/reset/restart… or, at least, has led to some sort of introspection that further leads to thinking “what next” -– there you go. It’s never too late to do something else… and to eventually be doing it far better than you ever imagined.
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July 4, 2020
I grew up watching a show called The Dukes of Hazzard… which, in its time, was very entertaining. The two super-cool cousins with their awesome car that could virtually fly over rivers… the buffoon cop Roscoe always chasing them… the even bigger buffoon Boss Hogg — the rich guy who ran the town and for some reason had it in for the Duke boys… perhaps some old score to settle with their Uncle Jesse. And of course, Daisy Duke. That was good TV back in the early 80s.
I’m not sure of the status of that show with respect to re-runs… I expect it’s been yanked, not really for the content… but because the real star of the show was a flaming orange 1969 Dodge Charger named The General Lee… with a big confederate flag painted on its roof. As fun as the show was, some things don’t age well. As a kid, I didn’t have a clue about the implications of any of that. Neither did any of my friends, all of whom watched it too.
But today is The Fourth of July — Happy 244ᵗʰ birthday to our neighbour to the south. You know, thinking back, we’ve all had birthday years we’d all like to forget about? I suspect in hindsight, this will certainly be one of those for the U.S.
Hazzard county was in Georgia, and there’s a lot more to worry about down there these days than those two cousins in their speedy car bootlegging moonshine, or their other cousin who made famous those shorts. I wish that were their biggest problem today… but it’s not.
My birthday wish… for Hazzard country, for Georgia and for the whole country… get better soon.
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July 3, 2020
Donald Trump has been pontificating about his southern border wall for as long as we can all remember. He’ll build the wall, Mexico will pay for it, blah blah. Well… it’s interesting, it may end up happening just like that, for exactly the opposite reason. Certainly, nobody is rushing into those southern states these days, but… on the flip-side, Mexico has problems of their own, and like Canada these days, is not interested in a swarm of American tourists. Build a wall and keep them in…
Up here, we’re dealing with the same thing. There’s a bit of a hole in our virtual wall – the free pass that Alaskan residents get on their way from Washington… they’re supposed to go straight home, but somehow, license plates from Texas, California, Washington etc… have been spotted pretty far from whatever could be defined as a corridor to Alaska. We’re not supposed to be open to American tourist traffic. Especially with this weather.
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December 3, 2020
A bit of a follow-up to my post a couple of days ago… with respect to Trump’s misinformation campaign… a good question to always ask is “to what end?” – like, why is this happening? What’s the point? Who’s benefitting?
A common answer, the usual lowest-common denominator, especially when dealing with the Trumps of the world, is… follow the money.
So… what was the point of that “interview” a few days ago, where Maria Bartiromo just sat there feeding Trump’s tiring election-fraud delusions? Depends who you ask.
Fox News has gotten into a bit of trouble recently with respect to its audience. The audience doesn’t really care about truth; they just want to hear their version of “facts” regurgitated back to them. So, when Fox started actually questioning the facts being put out there by Trump and his team, things didn’t go well. The most horrible thing that could possibly happen to them (according to Trump), did: Their ratings fell. Accordingly, they needed to do something for their core group… lest they see that entire demographic flee to the further-right-wing media, who are happily waiting for them. They chose to pander a bit of conspiracy bullshit… thrown in with the real news. Instead of discussing important, relevant topics like the pandemic or the impending transfer of power, it was just useless, irrelevant, made-up garbage… ostensibly being broadcast as “news”. Indeed, Fox News is as two-faced as the King of Clubs… but what do they care. Their integrity vanished ages ago.
From Trump’s point of view, it’s pretty simple. Why is he carrying on with this narrative? It’s nonsense. It’s tiring. It’s done. It’s been thrown out of every court. Even his trusty lapdog William Barr is admitting there was no election fraud, much to the dismay of the Trump loyalists who are now calling for his head. There’s an old saying… if you’re flogging a dead horse, dismount.
The answer is that by continuing to preach this crap, he can keep going back to his crowd of 70 million people… asking them to help correct this nefarious misjustice. I actually thought it was a joke that he’d be going out fundraising, to raise money to pay for these lawyers. But that’s what he did. “I need you now more than ever!” said one email. “The … [Continue Reading]
December 2, 2020
One million, divided by 365, equals 2,740… and, for the first time, that number was exceeded in the U.S. with respect to daily deaths… which simply means that at the present rate, C19 would claim more than a million American lives annually.
Fortunately, that’s not going to happen. Notwithstanding the present president’s disregard and complete lack of giving a shit with respect to doing anything to mitigate those deaths, vaccines are coming. Yeah, for all of you who want to heap praise on Trump for getting it done… how about you heap that praise on the tens of thousands of researchers whose hard work over many decades is what actually led to these vaccines. What Trump could’ve done, and hasn’t, is help keep things together before the vaccines arrive. It wouldn’t have taken much… a well-placed Tweet here or there, some sanity with respect to federal policy regarding masks and social distancing.
Whatever, the damage is done, and will be felt for decades and, for the moment, continues to rage with numbers that are scary. They’d be a hell of a lot more scary were it not for the vaccines, but even that is tempered by the brainwashed tens of millions who’ll refuse to get vaccinated, thanks to said soon-to-be-former-president’s nonsensical mixed messages.
Today, the U.K. became the first country outside of China and Russia to approve a vaccine. They’re planning the roll-out of the Pfizer vaccine as soon as next week. This is the one that needs to be kept super-cold, so there are logistical challenges to overcome. For what it’s worth, the Pfizer vaccine is one of seven that Canada has pre-ordered. Moderna and AstraZeneca, the two others with recently published excellent results, are also on that list.
When will Canada get a vaccine? That’s a good question, and the answer depends on who you ask. I’ve asked that question from many people who might have better than random guesses, and I’m feeling more optimistic than others. There’s a rumour that Trudeau screwed it all up and we’ll be waiting for months; that doesn’t seem to be the case. I know, this person said this and this person said that. I wish I could detail a bit what I’ve heard, but… for the moment… was told not to say more. And, for … [Continue Reading]
December 1, 2020
How exactly does one go from a normal, rational, thinking and functioning human being… to a brainwashed zombie? There are a couple of recent examples that make it pretty clear. One is a slow descent, taking you from thinking critically to believing nonsense… and the other is more a perpetual, blunt instrument that just seeks to reinforce your embedded beliefs.
The first example is an email that’s been floating around for a while. It was sent to me, for the first time, over the summer. It’s landed in my inbox a few times since, the most recent being last week. And every time I’ve seen it, it’s a little bit different.
The email is titled something like “The Wisdom of Dr. Bonnie Henry”, and begins with a brief biography of who she is and her qualifications. That’s all good. Then it has a long list of her “wisdom”, some of which are certainly things Dr. Henry might say… but also, there are things which she certainly hasn’t said, even though they may be sensible. And then… there are other things that she hasn’t said at all, and which are complete nonsense, and then, finally, outright mis-informational lies.
If you’re a little challenged in the critical-thinking department and/or read things a little too quickly, you might just fall for the whole thing… it’s very-well crafted. Like if numbers 11, 12 & 17 on the list all make perfect sense, certainly number 15 must as well.
The first time I quickly skimmed it, I didn’t actually catch on to the bullshit until I hit this gem: “Wearing a mask for long periods interferes with your breathing and oxygen levels. Wear it only in crowds.” I can assure you; that is not true. I can also assure you that Dr. Henry would never say that.
As is the case with these sorts of emails, some people like to add their own wisdom. Top 10 lists become top 12, then top 15. Someone else throws in some crap without noticing they’re using a different font. Yet another person decides to merge the email with paragraphs from another, which already has been hacked and butchered into a mess that looks more like a dog’s breakfast than a coherent, useful document.
In fact, the last version of this Dr. Henry … [Continue Reading]
November 30, 2020
B.C. got its updated numbers today… sort of. More data correction with respect to Fraser Health, and 277 previously unaccounted-for cases that should’ve been counted between Nov 18th and 26th. It’s a fun challenge trying to incorporate that without wrecking the integrity of the data.
Of course, what’s really important is what’s going on now, not what happened a week or two ago… but it’d be nice to consider all of this data reliably, and I doubt we’ve seen the end of these corrections.
Corrections or not, what happened two weeks ago is more important than it sounds, because it’s those new cases back then that today unfortunately translate to hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths.
Looking at today’s big picture, here’s what it looks like: The lifestyle changes imposed upon us might be making a difference, as far as new cases is concerned. The last three days were surprisingly not as drastic as a pessimist might have expected… and maybe we can hope it’s the start of a trend.
Unfortunately, the trailing pattern to cases is, as per above, hospitalizations… and deaths, which seem to trail new cases by a period of about 10-14 days. That makes sense; for those whose course through this disease is a difficult one, it generally doesn’t happen all at once.
What we’re seeing now is the end-result of the spike in cases that led to those new orders being imposed and then being tightened a few days later. Those in charge understand well the implications, and that’s with a medical system that isn’t yet busting at the seams. So, what have we seen recently?
Almost 100 people have died of C19 in B.C. in the last eight days. Before that, it took 48 days for the previous 100 deaths to add up. And before that, it was 140 days. To summarize, in British Columbia:
May 19th to Oct 5th: 101 deaths (140 days)
Oct 6th to Nov 22nd: 101 deaths (48 days)
Nov 23rd to Nov 30th: 98 deaths (8 days)
That’s not a great trend… because if it were to keep up at that pace, we’d have over 300 new deaths by the weekend. Fortunately, that’s not going to happen, but this is a little taste of what it looks like when things go from bad to worse to downright scary.
It’s a little … [Continue Reading]
November 29, 2020
As the Trump presidency slowly comes to a sputtering halt, one lingering question in the “Now what?” department has to do with the forthcoming legal entanglements in which the soon-to-be-former-president will find himself.
To begin with, there is the idea that he’d pardon himself, but that’s far from trivial.
First of all, there’s the question of whether he can actually do that. There isn’t agreement on that point, but it doesn’t matter. That pesky issue can be easily sidestepped… just resign a few hours before noon on January 20th, swear-in Mike Pence for what would be the shortest presidency in history, and have him do it.
But that doesn’t really address the salient issue of pardoning him… which is, of what? Both Trump and his diehard minions have been telling us for years… it’s all smoke… no fire here… move along. That being the case, there’d be nothing to pardon. To some extent, they’re right. You can’t preemptively pardon someone for crimes they haven’t committed, nor admitted to, nor been charged with. There’s no blanket pardon he can grant for the future… “Just in case…” – it doesn’t work that way. So… for any of this to work, Trump would have to admit to the crimes for which he’s seeking a pardon. It’s a magnificent Catch-22.
A lingering question over the last several years has been about just how feasible it actually is to indict a sitting president, and where might those cases go. It seems nobody wanted to test those waters, so it’s been a holding pattern for four years. There were rumours before the 2016 election of what was coming down the line… that, had Trump lost the election, new charges and allegations would’ve been forthcoming. All of that was put on hold.. except there has been an additional four years of opportunity to investigate.
For decades, Donald Trump was synonymous with New York. His real-estate projects, his towers, his skating rink, his reality show, his presence… everywhere. You may have noticed Trump has significantly soured on New York, and the same can be said vice-versa. Trump has made it clear he’ll be moving to Florida and that he’s done with New York. Donald Trump may be done with New York, but New York certainly isn’t done with him. Waiting in the wings, … [Continue Reading]